MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[sumander]

Not to provide SJU with any extra motivation, but I'd feel confident wagering against their inclusion if the Gusties pull the upset tomorrow.

They'd be 18-7 overall, with an 18-4 region record. With all but two of those wins coming against an extremely down league, that's hardly that impressive. Perhaps more telling would be a 6-4 record in their last 10, including two losses that would fall in the BAD category (@SMU, home vs. GAC). This isn't the time of season where you can often get away with such a bad stretch.

In the "what have you done for me lately" world, the Johnnies would be pinning their hopes on the mercy of a committee who is staring at two straight losses and an early exit from their conference tourney.

I'm not sure this is relevant to the NCAA committee who makes the selections, but the 73-49 loss to a 16-9 Ursinus team might look worse now than it did when it happened. I have no idea how good the AMCC is as a conference, but the 64-59 loss to Penn-State Behrend doesn't look that bad, since it finished the regular season with an 18-6 record. While these might remain periphery elements in the process, the embarrassment remains.

Also, "beefing up" that nonconference schedule with two wins against 7-15 UM-Morris aught to be illegal — especially when you lost your other 3 non-MIAC games. That's a downright Bethel-esque schedule

A lot of the stuff you mention with regard to the Johnnies isn't relevant to the Pool C selection process, my top-hatted chocolatier friend. Overall record? Not relevant. Record over the last ten games? Not relevant. Record over the last two games? Not relevant. Games vs. non-regional opponents (i.e., Ursinus and PSU-Behrend)? Not relevant. UMM's overall record? Not relevant (the Cougars went 4-7 in regional play, which means that they aren't even in the bottom quartile with regard to SJU's QOWI calculations).

There are five primary criteria that are used to select Pool C teams:

* Winning percentage against regional opponents
* Quality of Wins Index (QOWI) -- and, like the other four, this is strictly a regionally-based criterion
* In-region head-to-head competition
* In-region results vs. common regional opponents
* In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams

As you can see, there's nothing on there about overall record, record over the last x number of games, etc.

It's widely suspected that the two most commonly-used criteria out of the five in terms of how the selection committee grades the teams are regional winning percentage and QOWI. That's what SJU needs to worry about.

The Johnnies are currently 19-3 in region (not 18-4 as you said). That works out to a stellar .864 regional winning percentage. Remember, the lowest regional winning percentage sported by any of the 18 Pool C teams in last year's tournament was Illinois Wesleyan's .714, so you can see just how far above the baseline SJU is at the moment. SJU's current QOWI is 10.318, good for 19th in the nation. "Extremely down league" or not (and, incidentally, the evidence really isn't there in terms of records to prove that the MIAC was particularly worse than normal in 2006-07), the 19th-best QOWI in the nation is nothing to sneeze at. Keep in mind that most of the teams in the top twenty QOWI list are going to win Pool A slots as the automatic-bid winners from their respective conferences.

OK, now let's play out your what-if scenario of SJU losing at home to GAC in the MIAC semis. That would put SJU's regional record at 19-4, which means an .826 regional winning percentage. That's still more than a hundred points above the Pool C baseline for RW% from last year. The QOWI of the Johnnies would drop to 10.043 with the loss. A 10.043 QOWI would currently rank 31st in the nation -- still outstanding, and better than the QOWIs of 11 of last year's 18 Pool C teams.

Relax, Johnnies fans. Your bandwagon is going to roll into March, regardless of how SJU does against GAC in the semis.

Incidentally, kudos to Sumander and Bumkneez for taking the time to venture over to the Pool C room under the Multi-Regional Topics header and for doing their homework. I'm always surprised at how many people engage in speculation about the tourney within their own conference rooms without ever bothering to go into the national rooms to look at the overall coast-to-coast D3 picture.

Thanks Greg, appreciate the recap. It makes tonight's game a little less nerve wracking. Still would love to see another monkey stomp of WW's Gusties though!

Interesting thing about the two Pennsylvania teams we played at Christmas. The Ursinus team was by far the most physical team we played all season. It's easy to say but, my guess is they would have beat UST by the same margin if they had played them that day! The Behrend team we played was at best a lower tier MIAC team. Visiting with one of the parents they were a team in turmoil. SJU gave them some life at the end of the first half and they just built on it! Like I said in an earlier post, the Daytona experience was nothing more than a spring break for the players!

[columbianmaffia]

so if the tommies were to take their next two games and win the MIAC tourny how many home NCAA playoff games do people think they will get and what about st. johns also?

[sumander]

CMOB, I posed that question last Friday and didn't have any takers either!

Willy, just to let you and your Gustie brethren know, the bandwagon is out  of the pit area and looking to be in good shape. The damage suffered at UST was cosmetic. Tire pressures are adjusted properly and a full load of high octane fuel is in the tank.

SJU Bandwagon will roll tonight!

[Drake Palmer]

Some days - I hate computers!  I just lost my post discussing potental tourney brackets.

Ok Cliff notes version in several posts:

Sum- I just noticed your new avatar & signature line.  If the Johnnies & Tommies both win tonight, when you come down to the cities you might want to allow an extra hour or two & stop by the MIA:

Minneapolis Institute of Arts Psychedelic Collection 

[Drake Palmer]

Cliff Notes #2

Check out last year's bracket & look at the west region (upper left hand corner of the draw)  Look at the Ts, Carlies, Lawrence (which was the #1 seed for the region) & follow Ill Wesleyan. Ill Wes was a Pool C entry & made it to the Final Four.  Follow their progression & where they played along the way.
2006 D3 Tourney
   

I predict one, possibly two home games for the MIAC tourney winner.  Then more than likely off to UW-Stevens Point which I'm guessing will be this year's regional #1 seed.  if I'm wrong, Greg will stop by at some point to clarify. Thanks G!

[sumander]

Drake, Not an art fan (not that well rounded  ), just keeping with that J. Buffett theme!

Looking forward to the potential NCAA pairings post.

[Touchdown Tommy]

Freebird: Might want to check the fb board.  I know you get beat around like a redheaded step-child, but this had NOTHING to do with playoffs.  BTW: I don't get "worked up" over little peons like yourself.  You are small and insignificant.

Drake: Time to show your face.  My sources around the MIAC say you have YET to introduce yourself to many of the posters.  Perfect opportunity to no longer HIDE behind the computer screen and come out to play at the Stiftungsfestivities on Saturday hosted by the honorable Johnnie Red.  Note: No Bethel students are allowed...

[miacwatchmen]

The one, the only TDT every body. Good to see ya buddy. I agree, Drake I think its time you come out of the closet. 

P.S.- Willy your Gusties are going down. The Gusties ship will sink tonight.

[Drake Palmer]

Freebird: Might want to check the fb board.  I know you get beat around like a redheaded step-child, but this had NOTHING to do with playoffs.  BTW: I don't get "worked up" over little peons like yourself.  You are small and insignificant.

Drake: Time to show your face.  My sources around the MIAC say you have YET to introduce yourself to many of the posters.  Perfect opportunity to no longer HIDE behind the computer screen and come out to play at the Stiftungsfestivities on Saturday hosted by the honorable Johnnie Red.  Note: No Bethel students are allowed...

In my best Grey Poupon voice - "but pardon me, do I know you?  I've heard about you on the football board, but I don't believe you're a regular contributor on the hoops board are you?"

[sumander]

Latest posting from the Pool C Board Showing what the updated list of Pool B and C teams might look like.

These have typically reflected the NCAA regional rankings very closely.

[miacwatchmen]

Drake, TDT is a very respected member of the Johnnie Football community and a legend in his own mind!  Without him Stiffyfest just wouldn't be the same. The fest is a great time you should check it out.

[shocker]

Willy, kel, or anyone else know the status of Wittwer for tomorrow night?

Wittwer's Status for the game: AWESOME, in a not basketball-related way.

This tournament is all about one man: Jon Bain.

[miacwatchmen]

Latest posting from the Pool C Board Showing what the updated list of Pool B and C teams might look like.

These have typically reflected the NCAA regional rankings very closely.

Sum, I think you screwed up on the link. I got a screen to report abusive posts!



BAIN FOR MVP- He will dominate Ike for 28 and 17.....haha yeah right. Tommies in a monkeystomp.

[sumander]

Latest posting from the Pool C Board Showing what the updated list of Pool B and C teams might look like.

These have typically reflected the NCAA regional rankings very closely.

Sorry Watch, I fixed it! go to the post by Dave Collinge

[Freebird]

Freebird: Might want to check the fb board.  I know you get beat around like a redheaded step-child, but this had NOTHING to do with playoffs.  BTW: I don't get "worked up" over little peons like yourself.  You are small and insignificant.

Drake: Time to show your face.  My sources around the MIAC say you have YET to introduce yourself to many of the posters.  Perfect opportunity to no longer HIDE behind the computer screen and come out to play at the Stiftungsfestivities on Saturday hosted by the honorable Johnnie Red.  Note: No Bethel students are allowed...

That is interesting because if I'm so small and insignificant why do you continue to try to measure up?  You waffle between getting worked up and running to hid.  You have a history of disappearing whether it is forced or by choice.

I worked my way over to the FB board and saw a lot of the same old same old.  Dumb(KR) and dumber(Duffman) feed off of each other and you each get your daily laughs in.

Your "GEM" was actually very funny and in many situation very true.