MBB: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[Drake Palmer]

DP- allow me to add that the GAC/UST game should be on the list as well, if not for the furious GAC rally and back-and-forth lead changes at the end of the game between the #'s one and two in the conference.

I'm outta here, I gotta go caucus.

Shock – You're right.  The first GAC-UST game certainly should be included as one of the top 5 games of the season.  When I first thought of the "Thrilla" list, I was originally thinking of the top 3 games of the season, and then realized I couldn't pick the last second Mac win over SMU, without including the other last second MAC win over UST.  It was Abe's bookend present to the MIAC this year.

I don't know where you were at, but my local caucus was jam packed.  No matter what side of the political aisle we may be on, yeah for the political process!

[big_shocker]

DP- good points, all around.

My caucus had a larger turnout than they expected, and were actually very rational. Shocker Gal is on the other side of the aisle, and she said the lines went around the block up here in the Cities.

My guy still just can't win anything, although he did better in Minnesota than any other state.

[abominable_snowman]

Ok folks, let's try to stay away from any "my caucus is bigger than yours" talks here.  We all know that size doesn't matter, or does it? 

Sorry. Couldn't resist.   

Glad to see we have such a politcally active board - not suprising though.

anybody headed to bethel tonight, should be rockin pretty good.

[VOJ]

Drake...

Game 2 between the J's and Knights, could be on the list...Knights got out early by 13...and the J's came back to tie at the half, then they go up 13 only to see the Knights tie it on a Drake 3...Leiser driving layup with 3.3 seconds left in OT wins it...

J's and Oles...major playoff field implications tonight...

[sumander]

I know many of you do not think that there will be two teams coming out of the miac this year, but if both UST and GAC can finish strong and then meet in the finals wouldn't it be hard to keep them out. I know Gustavus had a few tough losses early but they do have a couple big wins against Buena Vista who they handly beat at BV by 12. BV is 16-4 and 10-1 in conference. Gac has also swept the preseason favorites Bethel and SJU not to mention their dramatic victory agaisnt UST.

O Greek one, The selection process is not really a subjective one. The NCAA Handbook allocates the number of bids as follows:  38 Pool A teams (Conference Champs), 4 Pool B Teams (independents) and 17 Pool C Teams, Selected on a national basis using regional selection criteria.

Unless GAC Wins the MIAC tournament they will get thrown in the Pool C category. SJU was a Pool C Qualifier last year. The first regional ranking comes out next week. Based on a simulation done by another poster GAC right now is a third tier Pool C Candidate.


WE  84   01   02   Occidental                006  A w C       11-1 16-2
WE  82   02   04   St. Thomas                018  A w C       14-2 16-3
WE  81   03   01   Buena Vista               023  A w C       12-2 16-4
WE  86   04   05   UW-Stevens Point          026  A w C       13-4 15-4
WE  86   05   06   UW-Platteville            028  C 9         14-3 15-4
WE  86   06   08   UW-Whitewater             031  C 11        14-3 16-3
WE  81   07   09   Loras                     034  C 13        12-3 15-5
WE  84   08   10   Cal Lutheran              040  C second    13-3 15-3
WE  83   09   03   Puget Sound               046  A second    11-2 15-3
WE  86   10   07   UW-Oshkosh                055  C third     11-5 14-6
WE  82   11   13   Gustavus Adolphus         057  C third     12-4 14-4

Granted the win over BV is a quality regional win, but the overall strength or lack there of in the MIAC hurts the Gusties.

(As of today I think you would see at least one, if not two WIAC teams get Pool C bids before GAC).

[sumander]

Drake...

Game 2 between the J's and Knights, could be on the list...Knights got out early by 13...and the J's came back to tie at the half, then they go up 13 only to see the Knights tie it on a Drake 3...Leiser driving layup with 3.3 seconds left in OT wins it...

J's and Oles...major playoff field implications tonight...

VOJ, I would term this a must win for the J's! Looking at their remaining schedule (UST is their only other home game) They need to win tonight. They have road games against AUG,HAM & MAC. Nothing easy there!

I still think a 10-10 team is going to sneak into the #6 spot

[sumander]

Now for the trifecta of posts! Sparticus and any one else interested. The primary selection criteria that will be used in the evaluation of Pool C candidates (not listed in priority order):

• Win-Loss % against regional opponents
• Strength of Schedule only contests v. regional opponents
• In-region head to head competition
• in-region results v. common regional opponents
• in-region results v. regionally ranked teams

[Drake Palmer]

+k for the Johnnie posters.  After a day of bereavement & licking their wounds, the Johnnie posters come out firing after the dogfight in the valley of the Green Giant.  I hope the Gusties let you take back some surplus Green Giant frozen corn nibblets, or sweet peas for your efforts. Glad to see you guys return.

VOJ – The Js & Knights game 2 was a good one, but was probably more exciting due to the suspense & intrigue surrounding Mr. Lieser's uncertain return to the hardwoods.  Due to their style of play, every game with the Carlies seems to be a struggle.  For example, I saw the OT win by Bethel over Carleton & personally, I wouldn't rate it ahead of any of the previous games I mentioned earlier.  A struggle - yes, entertaining - yes, a "THRILLA" - not so sure.

Dang Sum – with all this knowledge you're dropping, we'll have to change your name to "Greg Sager Sumander." 

I agree, we might see one 10-10 team make the playoffs, but I hope we don't a see a 10-10 team along with a 9-11 team.  Out of the teams currently in 3rd-6th, we've got Bethel & Concordia at 8-6, & SJU & Carleton at 8-7.  That would mean someone only going 2-4 or 2-3 to squeak in at 10-10. 

Tonight's game between the Oles & Johnnies is a must win for the Oles, as are all of their remaining games.  At 7-8, the Oles need to find a way to get at least 3 wins to get to 10-10 & then pray for help. Of their remaining 5 games, the only game where they would possibly be favored is against Macalester.   

The Johnnies have a slightly easier path to ten victories since they're already at 8 wins. If I was an oddsmaker, I would give them a 4 pt edge tonight against the Oles, a draw against Augsburg in Minneapolis on Saturday, & they would definitely be favored in their games next week against Hamline & Macalester.   There's gotta be two wins in there somewhere.   

[localcoach]

Good morning to all.  Feeling a little under the weather, I took the day off to recover.  It's that time of the year I guess.

First off, a recruiting tidbit for Drake and all the other hardcore posters  I caught up with some high school coaching friends of mine last night and among the things I learned is that Bloomington Jefferson senior Aaron Barmore will attend St. John's next year.  I have not seen Mr. Barmore play since the summer time, but it appears he's having a successful senior year at Jefferson.  Nice player from what I remember.  6-5 and very versatile.  Apparently most of the MIAC was recruiting him.  

Now, on to the current MIAC standings.  As of today, here is what we have.  The Tommies have already clinched a playoff berth.  Congrats to Coach Fritz.  There were more than a few posters earlier this season who prognosticated that UST wouldn't even make the post-season.  

1.   St. Thomas* 13-2   17-3
2.   Gustavus       11-3   15-4
3.   Bethel          8-6   12-7
       Concordia      8-6   9-10
5.   Carleton      8-7   13-7
       Saint John's 8-7   11-9
7.   St. Olaf      7-8   9-11
8.   Augsburg      6-8   8-11
9.   Hamline      5-9   7-12
10.   Macalester     4-10   6-13
11.   Saint Mary's 1-13   1-18

Other observations:
-With a pair of wins this week I think GAC will also officially be in the post-season tourney
-Bethel is making a nice late season run.  A third place finish seems likely with 4 of their final 6 games against the bottom half of the league.  The two others are against UST and Concordia
-Is there anyone else who thinks that Concordia could end up not making the playoffs?  I had this questioned posed to me last night and I didn't feel comfortable answering it as I haven't seen the Cobbers in action this season yet.  They have a fairly tough schedule to finish things out
-Carleton and the Johnnies both look to be in good shape, as I would deem 4 of their final 5 games each "very winable"
-Then we get to the log jam for the possible final spot.  It appears that Auggie, Hamline, and the Oles are the only teams in contention.  

Oles - Toughest remaining schedule without question.  @SJU, @ MAC, vs. Bethel, GAC, Carleton.   1-4 or 0-5
Auggie - vs. MAC, SJU, @ UST, vs. Concordia, @ SMU, Bethel.  3-3 at best I think
Pipers - @ Concordia, vs. SMU, Carleton, SJU, @ GAC, vs. MAC.  Again, 3-3 at best I think

So, based on all of the above thoughts and ramblings, here's my early post-season playoff projections.

1. UST
2. GAC
3. Bethel
4. Carleton
5. St. John's
6. Concordia - hangs on during the final week of the season

Start chiming in guys.....

[sumander]

DP, Are my eyes playing tricks or did you delete a post in response to LC's post?

[sumander]

Ok, Here is my take on things. UST & GAC are in solid. 3-6 look like this:

BET (8-6) - UST,CORD,@STO,@SMU,MAC,AUG* 4-2*finish 12-8
CORD(8-6) HAM,@BET,@GAC,@AUG,UST,SMU*3-3* finish 11-9
SJU (8-7)   STO,@AUG,@MAC,@HAM, UST * 3-2        finish 11-9
CAR (8-7) SMU,@HAM,MAC,@STO,@GAC * 3-2 *      finish 11-9
STO (7-8) @SJU,@MSC,BET,GAC,CAR  *1-4*            finish 8 -12
AUG (6-8) AMC,SJU,@UST,CORD,@SMU,@BET*3-3* finish 9-11

SJU or CAR may stumble coming home and end up 10-10 and in the last playoff spot!

[Drake Palmer]

Sum- No your eyes are going on you.  joking.  Yup I did see below:

LC - you might want to put a column heading over your league standings.  I initially thought you were listing the current league records along with projected league finishes.

(I was busting his chops a bit because I thought he was trying to project the final conference records when actually he was showing current, overall team records. I misread, & he needed to clarify his standings.)

I can't say I know much about Aaron Barmore from Bloom. Jeff.  His name is vaguely familiar from last year when I saw Jefferson play in the sectionals.  If I recall, he was the only decent outside shooting threat that Jefferson had. Jefferson had another kid - Jon May (?) go to Lawrence over in Wisconsin (?).  Looks like assistant Jays' coach Matt Ohme has been busy working the old high school pipeline.

[bleednavyblue_GoBU]

Predictions for tonight...

I went 4-1 on Monday and am hoping for a 5-0 tonight! 

Ham @ Concordia - I wouldn't mind if the Cobbers dropped this one...but it is at home, and this is a must win for them if they want to make the playoffs, so...Cord by 8. 

StOlaf @ SJU - Local pointed out nicely that they have the hardest schedule remaining, they are in trouble...SJU by 9. 

GAC @ SMU - The only way this one stays close is if GAC is distracted by the surroundings of Winona...ish...GAC by 15. 

MAC @ AUG - Has MAC thrown in the towel?...wow what a turnaround...things started so well for them...AUG by 10 
Sidenote:  I predict right now that AUG beats out Concordia for the 6th playoff spot...what do you think of that Cord of the North ? 

UST @ BU - The first matchup has to be in the top five so far this year...and I hope this one is more of the same...BU by 1 (OT AGAIN!) 

Sidenote:  Laugen is still a question mark for tonight!!  He still had some symptoms from Monday night's concussion.  That hurts the Royals if he can not play...but I still think they can beat the Tom-Cats without him! 

It is good to be a Royal! 

p.s. if the Royals win tonight...I predict they win out, and go storming into the playoffs! 

[Drake Palmer]

Sum - I like  the Cobbs, but it's not going to be a cakewalk for them to go 3-3. I'm thinking more like 2-4. Tonight's game against the Pipes they should be ok, but then they've got that goofy schedule when they play @ Bethel 6:00 Saturday night, play @ GAC on Monday night, then turnaround & drive back to the Cities to play Augsburg a week from this Saturday. Finally two weeks from now they're back home to close out the regular season against UST & SMU.  I'm still waiting to hear from someone why the Cobbs games were scheduled like this. 

IMO, Carleton has got the 2nd easiest schedule behind Bethel & I could see them going 4-1 and sneaking at 12-8 as well.

[abominable_snowman]

Jury is out for me on the Cobbers.  They are 3 of 7 on the road so far (Mac, Hamline, St. mary's) and have to face BET/GAC/AUG in consecutive road games.  The Johnnies also have 3 straight road games.  Could get long.

UST @ Concordia could be a toss-up, but the young tommies have stepped up to the plate quite a bit this year.  

Hamline is the other X-factor.  Can Whitmore draw on his years of battle and strategize a way to muster his troops, and rally for a late surge?  if he can, he might just beat out Augsburg or St. Olaf.

Bethel can't relax.  They could drop down to 5 or 6 if they have a streak of poor shooting.

I'll go

UST
GAC
CAR
SJU
BET
AUG