MBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[WAlum]

So Franklin needs to lose to get in the HCAC tourney?  I am picking Hanover in the conference tournament and the HCAC getting two teams in the NCAA Tournament.

[BUBeaverFan]

Franklin beats Defiance:
Manchester again gets the 5 seed with a superior H2H record (3-1 vs 2-2 vs 1-3) and Bluffton gets the 6 seed by having a better record against #2 Hanover (1-1 vs 0-2) leaving Franklin out of the tourney.

In this scenario does FCGrizzliesGrad mean "leaving Defiance out of the tourney" instead of "leaving Franklin out of the tourney"? That would seem to make more sense but I am sure Darryl can figure it out.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Only 6 teams make the tourney. With the assumptions I made the top 4 teams were Transy, Hanover, Rose, and Anderson leaving two spots to fill.

Assuming Bluffton loses to Transy and Manchester beats Earlham then they would both be 9-9. Whoever wins the Franklin-Defiance game will also be 9-9 and the loser will be 8-10 and out of the picture. If Defiance beats Franklin there is a three way tie between Manchester, Defiance, and Bluffton for 5th place and Bluffton would be the odd team out with Franklin not even factoring into it (being 8th place). If Franklin beats Defiance then the three way tie would be Manchester, Bluffton, and Franklin for 5th and Franklin would be the odd team out and Defiance not factoring in (being 8th).

Of course if surprises occur then the scenarios will be different. Such as if Earlham upsets Manchester then Bluffton and the FC-DC winner will be in.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

I went through and figured out who would be in based on all the various scenarios... I have a bit different percentages than Darryl, but he said he didn't have the tiebreakers updated. Assuming I did it properly (H2H first, then record vs Transy, record vs Hanover, record vs Rose [and all ties were broken by this point]) Here's what I've figured:
Anderson: 100% (they are in the tourney)
Bluffton: 87.5%
Defiance: 50%
Manchester: 37.5%
Franklin: 25%

Just like the final week of the NFL when they announce the various ways a team can make the playoffs, here's what each team needs to do...

Bluffton: Win OR Manchester Loss OR Franklin Win
Defiance: Win
Manchester: Win plus Bluffton Loss OR Win plus Franklin Win
Franklin: Win plus Manchester Loss

Bluffton and Defiance are in control of their destiny, Bluffton can also make it with some help if they lose, Manchester and Franklin need to win and have help

[altor]

Anderson: 100% (they are in the tourney)

Bluffton: Win OR Manchester Loss OR Franklin Win
Defiance: Win
Manchester: Win plus Bluffton Loss OR Win plus Franklin Win
Franklin: Win plus Manchester Loss

Bluffton and Defiance are in control of their destiny, Bluffton can also make it with some help if they lose, Manchester and Franklin need to win and have help

FWIW, I went through all 32 scenarios this morning and I concur with this assessment.  The 4-way ties for 4th were fun to break.

[BUBeaverFan]

Manchester  70-67 Earlham
Rose-Hulman 75-61 Hanover
Anderson 63-59 MSJ
Defiance 70-68 Franklin
Bluffton 83-65 Transylvania

[BUBeaverFan]

#6 Defiance vs. #3 Rose-Hulman    6:00 PM HCAC Tournament Opening Round @ Transylvania University    
#4 Bluffton vs. #5 Anderson (Ind.)    8:00 PM HCAC Tournament Opening Round @ Transylvania University

6/3 winner vs. #2 Hanover
4/5 winner vs. #1 Transylvania

[WAlum]

For everyone other than Transy, its now win the league tournament or no NCAA this season.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

FYI: Transylvania Coach Brian Lane will be a guest on Hoopsville tonight. Show starts at 7:00 PM EST, though Coach Lane should be around 7:30 (give or take).

You can tune into the show live at www.d3hoopsville.com
You can also follow us on Twitter: www.twitter.com/d3hoopsville or #hoopsvile
On Facebook: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
Email us: hoopsville@d3hoops.com

The archive of the show will also be available within minutes of us going off the air. Look to Twitter, Facebook, and our website for a link.

Hope we see you tonight!

[zander]

Sure hope Hanover can regroup after this most recent loss to RH. It is definitely within their ability to win the tourney if they come out firing and aggressive on offense! Go Panthers !

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

If you missed tonight's Hoopsville with an interview with Coach Brian Lane from Transylvania, here is the archive: http://www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2011-12/feb19

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Using percentages from Massey, here's the approximate chances for each team winning in each round of the conference tourney...
1st round
4 Bluffton: 49.5%
5 Anderson: 50.5%
3 Rose: 72.2%
6 Defiance: 27.8%

Semi-finals
1 Transy: 85.7%
4 Bluffton: 7.0%
5 Anderson: 7.3%
3 Rose: 33.6%
6 Defiance: 7.1%
2 Hanover: 59.3%

Finals
1 Transy: 67.5%
4 Bluffton: 2.7%
5 Anderson: 2.8%
3 Rose: 8.9%
6 Defiance: 1.0%
2 Hanover: 17.2%

[dc_has_been]

Taking a look back, the coaches did a pretty good job.  Just have to flip Manchester and Bluffton as well as Defiance and Anderson. 
Preseason coaches poll
Transylvania (5) 86
Hanover (1)      78
Rose-Hulman      77
Manchester (2)   75
Defiance (1)     58
Anderson (1)     57
Bluffton         47
Franklin         42
Mt St Joseph     18
Earlham          12

Pretty excited that DC was able to win their final six to get them the final spot into the tourney.  I'm hoping they can continue the win streak at least to the final game. 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

HCAC tourney is finally underway...
Massey correctly had both first games picked... here's the current percentages

Semi-finals
1 Transy:   85.5%
5 Anderson: 14.5%
3 Rose:     46.6%
2 Hanover:  53.4%

Finals
1 Transy:  66.8%
5 Anderson: 5.4%
3 Rose:    12.3%
2 Hanover: 15.5%

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Congrats to Rose for winning the tourney and getting the auto bid. Hopefully Transy gets in as well and the HCAC can kick some butt.