MBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Three games left in the season... three big questions to answer in the next couple of weeks...
1) Who will miss the tournament out of Rose, Transy, Hanover and Bluffton... still some games left amongst them
2) Who will win the tournament and represent the HCAC
3) Will Earlham win a game... last chance might be today. Massey gives them a 26% chance vs Franklin

[dc_has_been]

1. I give Rose, Bluffton, and Transy the nod.  Hanover will be the one to fall short.
2. I'm hoping for Defiance, but right now MSJ has all the cards in their deck....for now!
3. Earlham did it!  Their losing streak comes to an end in a close game!

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

If I have the tiebreakers correct, I believe this is how the seeding would be based on the results of the final games. Apparently the Anderson-Earlham game has no influence on the seeds.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

In the pre-tournament elimination game down in Kentucky... Bluffton led by 8 with just 3:30 to go but Transy tied it up with a minute left. Back and forth in the final minute, Transylvania with a basket with just 4.3 left to tie the game again and send it to OT.

Edit: Transy took a 1 point lead in OT, but Bluffton with three straight 3s and it's 80-72 with 1 minute left

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Beavers pull away and win in OT 86-76.

MSJ/Defiance #1/2
Anderson is #3
Rose-Hulman is #4
Hanover is #5
Bluffton is #6

If MSJ wins or Defiance loses then MSJ is #1 and Defiance #2. If MSJ loses and Defiance wins they tie for 1st. They split, they both went 2-0 vs Anderson, Defiance swept Rose while MSJ will have lost meaning Defiance is #1, MSJ #2

If Rose loses, there's a three way tie for 4th... Rose went 3-1, Bluffton 2-2, Hanover 1-3. That gives Rose 4th. Then the two way tie is decided as below.
If Rose wins, there's a two way tie for 5th... Bluffton and Hanover split... both went 0-2 vs MSJ, both split 1-1 vs Defiance, but Hanover got a win over Anderson.

[dc_has_been]

You went above and beyond FCGrizzliesGrad, above and beyond!!!  Thank you!  +1 to you!

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Rose-Hulman beats MSJ 68-60. Defiance currently up 42-23 on Franklin at halftime. Looking like Defiance will take the top seed.

[dc_has_been]

Defiance does close out Franklin and take the #1 seed! 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Using Massey I calculated the percentages for advancing in the tournament... not surprisingly Defiance gets a good boost by hosting. Almost a 2 in 3 chance that the final will be Defiance vs MSJ.


1   Defiance          100%      85.47%      64.40%
                 
4   Rose-Hulman        53%       7.95%       2.99%
5   Hanover            47%       6.58%       2.29%
                 
3   Anderson           52%      12.74%       2.00%
6   Bluffton           48%      10.80%       1.56%
                 
2   Mount St. Joseph  100%      76.46%      26.77%

[dc_has_been]

As FCGrizzliesGrad showed, the first round of the conference tournament projected close games.  Bluffton and Anderson went to OT with Bluffton coming out on top, and RHIT tried a second have push to fall by 2 points to Hanover.  I have to say, I am a big fan of Massey! 

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

As FCGrizzliesGrad showed, the first round of the conference tournament projected close games.  Bluffton and Anderson went to OT with Bluffton coming out on top, and RHIT tried a second have push to fall by 2 points to Hanover.  I have to say, I am a big fan of Massey!

I'm sure that has nothing to do with the fact Defiance are quite favored to win

Lower seeds won both quarterfinals... going to be a tough task for either to repeat that today. Hanover did get a split with Defiance this year though, while MSJ swept Bluffton.

[Darryl Nester]

... while MSJ swept Bluffton.

As the Bluffton rep on this board (even if I don't chime in often), I feel obliged to point out Thayne Recker missed one game this season because of an injury ... when Bluffton hosted MSJ.  When Bluffton went to MSJ, the Lions needed a trey with 8 seconds left to take the win.

That being said, the Beavers will have to turn around quickly from playing overtime last night, which is a definite disadvantage.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Defiance with a 65-50 win. We'll have an all Ohio final tomorrow.
Bluffton continuing to play in tight games for their season... up 47-46 with under 7 minutes left. Beavers had to win in OT at Transy just to make the tournament, then won in OT against Anderson to advance to the semis. What are the chances this game goes into OT?

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Bluffton wins 64-52.
Beavers were at one point 8-10 this season then won 6 of 7 to end the season including what was essentially the play-in game at Transy. Two more wins in the tourney and now they're just one game from the NCAA tournament.
Beavers and Jackets split this season... should be a good game tomorrow.

[dc_has_been]

This will be the 195 time Defiance and Bluffton face off.  Not bad for two schools that are approximately 50 miles apart from each other!   
Since the 2006-07 season, Defiance leads 10-8.  This is the first time the two will face of in the conference tournament!  I expect a big crowd and a tough and close game played today at Defiance! 
Bluffton has done a great job to beat Defiance in big games.  Hopefully, Defiance is focused and plays aggressive and shoots well, and shuts down Recker!  That beast is averaging 26.5 pts and 12.5 rebs a game in two games vs. Defiance this season. 
I look forward to watching a great game and watching Defiance cut down the nets at the end!