MBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

RO_24 · February 08, 2007, 02:37:02 PM

3 games left in the league, and still a cluster at the top...gotta love it.

I'm not sure I have seen a team drop as many 3's in a short period of time to comeback and make it interesting for quite awhile...Manchester showed heart coming back, but BU found a way to pull it off. Hopefully the next time they are up 6 or 7, they won't quit attacking, has hurt Bluffton the last 3 games.

Darryl Nester · February 08, 2007, 04:01:29 PM

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Bluffton	9-4	7-0	2-4	@ TU, vs. MSJ, @ HC
Mount St. Joseph	8-5	5-1	3-4	vs. FC, @ BU, vs. MC
Defiance	8-5	6-1	2-4	@ RHIT, @ FC, vs. TU
Franklin	8-5	3-3	5-2	@ MSJ, vs. DC, vs. AU
Transylvania	7-6	4-3	3-3	vs. BU, @ HC, @ DC
Hanover	7-6	4-2	3-4	@ MC, vs. TU, vs. BU
Manchester	6-6	4-2	2-4	vs. HC, @ AU, vs. RHIT, @ MSJ
Rose-Hulman	4-10	3-4	1-6	vs. DC, @ MC
Anderson	2-12	2-5	0-7	vs. MC, @ FC

BU MSJ DC FC TU HC MC RHIT AU
Bluffton: -1 2 0 1 1 0 2 0
Mount St. Joseph: 1 0 1 0 -2 -1 2 2
Defiance: -2 0 1 -1 2 0 1 2
Franklin: 0 -1 -1 0 2 0 2 1
Transylvania: -1 0 1 0 -1 0 2 0
Hanover: -1 2 -2 -2 1 1 0 2
Manchester: 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 1
Rose-Hulman: -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 1 2
Anderson: 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 -2

With 13 games remaining, there are still 7 teams in contention for the league title. For the remaining 2¹³ possible scenarios to close out the regular season, here are the percentages of those scenarios for which each team ends at the given seed in the conference tournament. (This is based on my reading of the tie-breaker system, which might not be perfect. Also, please note that these percentages should not be interpreted as "probabilities," as they treat each possible win/loss combination as equally likely.)

Team #1 #2 #3 #4 In tournament
Bluffton: 53.8% 23.5% 10.8% 6.4% 94.6%
Franklin: 11.1% 19.2% 21.9% 18.9% 71.2%
Defiance: 6.8% 21.1% 24.0% 18.1% 70.1%
Mount St. Joseph: 23.0% 19.6% 13.2% 11.9% 67.7%
Transylvania: 2.7% 8.4% 10.8% 18.4% 40.2%
Hanover: 1.3% 3.7% 9.0% 15.2% 29.3%
Manchester: 1.2% 4.3% 10.2% 11.1% 26.9%

dc_has_been · February 08, 2007, 08:17:48 PM

Darryl-thanks for all the stats that you've been putting up. It has been very helpful & has made the end of the season very interesting to follow. Before I was only paying attention to DC, but now I've got my eyes & ears on every team.
Wait! I don't know now if I should thank you. I'm now more consumed by HCAC basketball than my job!!!

M and L · February 09, 2007, 11:15:35 AM

the stats update have been great

70_dc_alum · February 10, 2007, 08:32:02 PM

Has been you dont do crap for your Job anyways just come home and play guitar hero.

I will be in SoCal on the 20th but dont really have any free time. i have a feeeling i will be out there again pretty soon for a more extended period

Darryl Nester · February 10, 2007, 10:14:55 PM

Scores (the road teams go 3-1):
Bluffton loses at Transy, 65-75.
Defiance 61, RHIT 52
Hanover 83, Manchester 73
Franklin 83, MSJ 76

This resulted in a three-way tie at the top, and another three-way logjam below that:

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Bluffton	9-5	7-0	2-5	vs. MSJ, @ HC
Franklin	9-5	3-3	6-2	vs. DC, vs. AU
Defiance	9-5	6-1	3-4	@ FC, vs. TU
Hanover	8-6	4-2	4-4	vs. TU, vs. BU
Transylvania	8-6	5-3	3-3	@ HC, @ DC
Mount St. Joseph	8-6	5-2	3-4	@ BU, vs. MC
Manchester	6-7	4-3	2-4	@ AU, vs. RHIT, @ MSJ
Rose-Hulman	4-11	3-5	1-6	@ MC
Anderson	2-12	2-5	0-7	vs. MC, @ FC

Here's the revised assessment of tournament options. Manchester is no longer in the running for the top two spots, but still has an outside shot at making the tourney. Franklin, Bluffton, and Defiance are at the top of the "likely in" group (although as I said before, these are not really probabilities, so "likely" is not the right word).

Team #1 #2 #3 #4 In tournament
Franklin: 25.3% 24.3% 24.7% 14.2% 88.5%
Bluffton: 36.0% 23.7% 15.8% 11.3% 86.8%
Defiance: 23.5% 21.3% 25.3% 15.4% 85.5%
Transylvania: 9.0% 10.4% 14.6% 22.3% 56.3%
Hanover: 0.4% 8.2% 12.5% 19.7% 40.8%
Mount St. Joseph: 5.8% 12.0% 6.2% 13.5% 37.6%
Manchester: 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 3.5% 4.4%

Unbreakable tie at top: 7.617%
Unbreakable tie across 4: 12.109%

dc_has_been · February 12, 2007, 02:58:11 PM

70dcalum- I do plenty for my job! Then I go home & rock out guitar hero.
On regards to you coming out to Cali, I'll be in Vegas from 21-24, but after that just give me a ring a few days ahead of time before you come out again.

On a basketball note- things are shaping up to what was predicted earlier w/ a tough battle to the end on who is going to claim ownership to the conf. championship.

RO_24 · February 14, 2007, 10:11:37 AM

Darryl,
If you hear anything on the cancellation of the game tonight, could you post it on here please? I'm sure I'll hear from my brother, I'm not sure when that would be.

DC - You from Cali??? Are you Koren? and if you are, you still going to Grieser's wedding?

Darryl Nester · February 14, 2007, 10:41:36 AM

Rod:

At this point, as far as I know, the game will go on tonight. If I hear of a cancellation, I'll let you know.

Any word from other schools about possible cancellations?

(update) The Defiance/Franklin game has been postponed until tomorrow night.

Darryl Nester · February 14, 2007, 12:55:35 PM

Here is confirmation that the MSJ/Bluffton games will be played, from an all-campus e-mail sent just after noon today:

QuoteThe men's and women's basketball games against Mt. St. Joe will be played tonight as scheduled.

The men are at home in Founders and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m.

The women are playing at Mt. St. Joe at 7:30 p.m.

RO_24 · February 14, 2007, 01:40:26 PM

We'll see you there...Hopefully we can get through the counties with Level 3's and not get arrested...

Darryl Nester · February 14, 2007, 01:55:55 PM

Rod:

I think you can travel through level-3 counties if you have urgent reason to. I'm sure the local police will let you through if you explain how crucial this game is toward determining the final standings in the HCAC.

Darryl Nester · February 14, 2007, 10:54:54 PM

The Beavers narrowly held on for a 66-65 win over MSJ. After leading at halftime by 11, they saw MSJ go up by by 4 with 6 minutes to go, and had to scrap their way back to the lead.

Meanwhile, Transy beat Hanover 64-47.

With 7 games remaining, Bluffton and Transy* have secured a spot in the HCAC tourney, and the winner of tomorrow's Franklin/Defiance game will also be in.

*My program says that Transy is in; the HCAC web site doesn't yet show that. I'm pretty sure the TU is guaranteed a spot, because I think enough tie-breakers go their way even if they lose at DC on Saturday ... however, this evening I discovered a flaw in my tie-breaking algorithm (now corrected), and there is one tie-breaker situation that I have not addressed yet (but I don't think it affects whether or not TU is in).

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Bluffton	10-5	8-0	2-5	@ HC
Franklin	9-5	3-3	6-2	vs. DC, vs. AU
Defiance	9-5	6-1	3-4	@ FC, vs. TU
Transylvania	9-6	5-3	4-3	@ DC
Mount St. Joseph	8-7	5-2	3-5	vs. MC
Hanover	8-7	4-3	4-4	vs. BU
Manchester	6-7	4-3	2-4	@ AU, vs. RHIT, @ MSJ
Rose-Hulman	4-11	3-5	1-6	@ MC
Anderson	2-12	2-5	0-7	vs. MC, @ FC

With tonight's loss, Hanover is eliminated from the tournament. Here are the ways the scenarios can play out from here. As things presently stand there is a good chance (18.75% of possible scenarios) that there will be an unbreakable tie between Bluffton and Transy for the #1 seed. Would the location of the conference tournament really be decided based on the flip of a coin in that case?

On the bright side, there is no longer any chance of an unbreakable tie across the 4-5 seed; that is, the four teams that make the tournament will not depend on a flip of the coin (assuming my understanding of all the tie-breakers is correct.)

Update: I've modified my program to address the final tie-breaker possibility now; the table below reflects the numbers that arise with this change. I'll look at my program again tomorrow, after I'd gotten caught up with my sleep.

Team #1 #2 #3 #4 In tournament
Bluffton: 65.6% 31.3% 3.1% 0.0% 100.0%
Transylvania: 9.4% 31.3% 21.9% 37.5% 100.0%
Defiance: 12.5% 12.5% 50.0% 17.2% 92.2%
Franklin: 12.5% 25.0% 25.0% 29.7% 92.2%
Mount St. Joseph: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 12.5%
Manchester: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3.1%

David Collinge · February 15, 2007, 12:59:26 AM

Darryl, you are the man! 8)

+K for you.

RO_24 · February 15, 2007, 12:33:17 PM

Made it too and fro last night without a ticket, got lucky...

Got lucky in the game as well, hopefully we will get to host the tournament, I think it would be the best environment to play in anyway.

What bearings do the games tonight have on conference champions?