MBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[Darryl Nester]

The Defiance/Franklin winner is in the tournament with a 1, 2, or 3 seed; the loser can get no higher than a #3 seed.

Manchester must win out and get a little help in order to get a #4 seed.  If they win tonight, they get the #4 seed in 6.25% of possible scenarios.

(Standard disclaimer) assuming my understanding of, and algorithms for implementing, the tie breaker scheme is correct.

[hoopsfanhcac]

Could you please explain the tie breaker situation. what if have two teams have the same record and split regular season. Does it go to point spread in those games? or does it go to the overall record of the teams they lost to?

[Darryl Nester]

Here is the tie-breaker, taken directly from the HCAC web site (misspellings and all):

HCAC standings are established by regular season will determine seeding positions
When ties in the final regular season standings occur the following steps will be used to break these ties.

• Head-to-head competition
• Competition against rank/order of regular season standings
• If these two steps do not break the tie than a coin toss will be used
• 
  
  • If the final standings have more than one tie then lower ties are resolved first
  • If there are multiple ties for a position, the tiebreaker process must start from the beginning each time a team is eliminated from teh tie
  • If there are more than two teams in an unbreakable tie than a lottery will be used to determine the seed positions

So point spread is not used (probably a good thing -- it means there is no incentive to run up the score).

Multiple ties are a pain, but I think I have interpreted the most reasonable way to implement this description.  However, I hesitate to say that my method is the ONLY reasonable way to do this -- so it is possible that Transy has actually NOT locked up a tourney berth.

I did some looking at other conference web pages today to see how they described their tie-breaker system.  In my brief examination, I couldn't find a description at the OAC or NCAC pages; I did find an interesting option at the Missouri Vally Conference pages that breaks ties using a "power rating" scheme.

My unbiased  suggestion would be that in the event of an unbreakable tie, the nod should go to the team that was ranked lower in the pre-season poll.

[hoopsfanhcac]

Darryl
based on your tie-breaker situations... what if....

Defiance beats Transy, Hanover beats Bluffton and Mount beats MC. Then the 4 spot is a 3-way tie at 9-7. am i right on that? Then what?
What if Manchester wins out and Transy, HC and MC are all 9-7?

How is the "Competition against rank/order of regular season standings" determined?

[Darryl Nester]

Hoopsfanhcac:

Here's the reasoning, as I see it, and as I implemented it in my program. I've highlighted (in boldface) a crucial interpretation of the rules which, if incorrect, would lead to a slight change in final standings ... and in particular would allow a chance for HC to make the tourney (which, I expect, you would find as welcome news).

Forgive the excruciating detail in this explanation; I am a math professor, so I cannot help myself.

For any scenario ending with MSJ, DC, and HC in a three-way tie for 4th place, we first do head-to-head competition, meaning (as I interpret it) we count how many wins each team has within that group.

• DC went 3-1 (1-1 vs. MSJ, 2-0 vs. HC)
• HC went 2-2 (2-0 vs. MSJ, 0-2 vs. DC)
• MSJ went 1-3 (1-1 vs. DC, 0-2 vs. HC)

Here is where I made a crucial interpretation of the rules which others might read differently:  Taking the requirements that

• "... lower ties are resolved first," and
• "If there are multiple ties for a position, the tiebreaker process must start from the beginning each time a team is eliminated from the tie,"

I interpreted that in a situation like this, we drop the lower team (MSJ), rather than raising the higher team (DC), and then we start over. Therefore, MSJ drops to 6th place, and we now must break the tie between DC and HC.  In this case, the result is the same either way: DC takes 4th place by virtue of their sweep of HC.

There are other scenarios that lead to FC, MSJ, and HC in a three-way tie for 4th.  In that case:

• FC went 3-1 (1-1 vs. MSJ, 2-0 vs. HC)
• HC went 2-2 (2-0 vs. MSJ, 0-2 vs. FC)
• MSJ went 1-3 (1-1 vs. FC, 0-2 vs. HC)

Everything proceeds as before: MSJ drops to 6th, then we compare FC and HC head-to-head, and FC takes 4th place because of their sweep over HC.  (Once again, my interpretation of the rules does not affect the outcome here.)

In the event of a three-way tie among MSJ/TU/HC or MC/TU/HC, my interpretation makes a difference.  Take the latter tie, for example. Within this group:

• TU went 2-2 (1-1 vs. MC, 1-1 vs. HC)
• HC went 3-1 (2-0 vs. MC, 1-1 vs. TU)
• MC went 1-3 (1-1 vs. TU, 0-2 vs. HC)

By my application of the tie-breaker, we drop MC, then start over.  HC and TU split the series, so head-to-head doesn't break the tie. Now we move on to "Competition against rank/order of regular season standings," which (as I understand it) means, compare each team in the tie group to the other teams, from the top of the standings down.  The teams at the top of the standings would include (in some order) FC, BU, and DC;  both TU and HC would be even against BU, but HC was swept by both FC and DC, while TU would have split against both. With a different interpretation of the tie-breaker, we could instead drop MC and raise HC (thus giving HC the #4 seed). 

Thanks for asking for more detail about this; I probably told you a lot more than you really wanted to hear, but it helped clarify things for me.

By the way, I see that MC did in fact beat AU tonight (69-66), so the scenario you described may arise.

[Darryl Nester]

In other news, Franklin beat Defiance and locks up a tournament berth.

Hoopsfanhcac, the tiebreaker situation mentioned above (where HC could end up in the #4 seed) occurs in 6 of the possible 32 scenarios (18.75%), if I counted correctly.  (I didn't have the time to rewrite my program tonight; I've already spent WAY too much time on this.)

For those who did not have the patience to read my extra-long dissertation above:  If my interpretation of the tie-breaker rules is wrong, then HC gets the #4 seed in 18.75% of all possible scenarios (at the cost of Transy--their chance of getting in drops by that much).

[hoopsfanhcac]

Darryl
thanks, i read it a few times to understand it. i guess we'll just have to see how things play out

[Darryl Nester]

After looking at a few other conferences to see how they break multiple ties, it appears that the more common approach is not the one that I took.  (And as I thought about it more last night, it seemed like a more reasonable approach; my interpretation was based on reading too much into an unclear description.)

My overall conclusion is, the HCAC needs to review the tie-breaker description (and not just to correct the spelling errors).  They should also make the men's and women's descriptions the same; right now, I believe that both procedures are identical, but the descriptions are not.  (The women's tie-breaker description is even less-detailed than the men's.)

Links:
Missouri Valley Conference tiebreaker
MAC tiebreaker
Big Sky tiebreaker

[RO_24]

The conference also needs to re-group and allow more then 4 teams into the conference tourney, even allowing 6 would make it a lot easier.  Good luck to all teams tomorrow, except for the ones that could win the conference besides Bluffton

[Darryl Nester]

Our local radio station evidently decided not to broadcast today's Bluffton/Hanover games, and I cannot connect to the SportsJuice broadcast.  I'd greatly appreciate any updates (or a final score, as the game should be ending soon).

[Darryl Nester]

I've seen the score now 
Hanover 82, Bluffton 68
In addition: Transy over Defiance, 61-58
And apparently, Franklin beat Anderson, although I cannot find a score.

The Manchester/Rose game is late, but is irrelevant to the final standings; the tournament will (I believe) consist of #1 Franklin, #2 (tie) Bluffton and Transy, and #4 Defiance.

[diehardfan]

While I run the risk of talking to myself, I'll update the standings and matchup table for anyone who cares:

I care, Darryl.  Thanks for helping me and other interested posters/lurkers to keep up with the zany HCAC.

As the risk of sounding like David Collinge/Mark Hammill (I care!) I care too.... Do we need to put up a poll asking if anyone reads your posts again? That probability chart puts all other people to shame... nice stuff. Esp given how confusing this league is right now!

Speaking of Polls, I thought the Transy Coach Brian Lane's interview on Hoopsville was awesome! I especially loved where he mentioned the poll we made about whether a Transy supporter would ever post. Good stuff! It's always sorta embarrassing to know that coaches (ie, the people that actually matter) are reading our nonsense though.

[RO_24]

Sad one to watch on Saturday.  We have to bounce back and hopefully the guys will keep their confidence up and know that it is a new season now.  Transy is good, but very beatable, and I think Franklin will probably win the home game for them. 

I wonder what is wrong with the radio station Darryl, the last couple games haven't worked.

[d3hoopsluva]

1st time poster...long time hoopster! It's tourney time and I am ramped up for some HCAC action! Who are the picks for this weekend?
Will the grizzlies be able to get it done in there own den against the "Shaq of the HCAC?
Will the 2 headed monster of Schweiderman and Anthony be too much for the defending champs of Transy?
Lets here those predictions gents..I've been waiting 2 long days for approval to post and I am ready to roll!
I just got my flight booked to Franklin Ind...a room at the Hilton...and a seat cushion for 2 exciting days.
See you in FRANKLIN!

[Darryl Nester]

April: Thanks for mentioning Lane's interview.  I had missed it, but just listened to the archived broadcast.

I don't have predictions right now, but I'll add my vote of agreement with RO_24's call to revisit the 4-team tournament decision.  I think the line between 4th and 5th place is too thin to be used as the cutoff point.  On the women's side, it happened that the top 4 teams were the only ones with winning records, but on the men's side, Hanover, MSJ, and MC will be left out in the cold with records above (or at, or just below) .500.