MBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[RO_24]

Predictions for the Night:

Franklin @ Defiance - Have to go with Defiance in this one, at home and on a roll
Hanover @ Transy - Hanover will come out strong and hit more shots than they did on Saturday, pulling out the W.
Manchester @ Anderson - AU will be too much.
Mt. St. Joe @ Bluffton - As long as Bluffton can contain Romes, and cut down on TO's they will come out with a big W.

Anyone else?

[Darryl Nester]

I think I might go with Transy over Hanover -- both teams are probably unhappy about losing on their respective home courts on Saturday, but I have to think that the Pioneers are really ticked off after getting bulldozed by 33 points.  I can't see them losing at home twice in a row.

Hmm ... if I agree with RO_24's other picks, that means I am calling for a home team sweep.  That seems kind of risky, but I'll stick with it.

[rreucher24]

Defiance
Transy
Bluffton
Anderson

All home teams...

Anyone know the status of Juenger?

[Darryl Nester]

This is a rather absurdly indirect path for information, but ...

My older son David had P.J. as a student teacher last fall at Bluffton Middle School.  David told me yesterday that he had heard (I think from one of PJ's cooperating teachers) that he sprained his ankle, and will miss "three or four games."  So he likely will join fellow big men Josiah Stober and Justin Leimeister on the bench this evening.

[Darryl Nester]

Two wins for the home teams:
Beavers 73, MSJ 71
Anderson 76, Manchester 70

Two wins for the visitors:
Hanover 88, Transy 80
Franklin 76, Defiance 66

Wow -- four HCAC games with only one (barely) double-digit win.

Rod goes 3-1 on his picks, Ricky and I were 2-2.  But overall, I was happy with the two outcome for the two  I missed.

In the Bluffton/MSJ game, the Lions built a 17-point lead in the first half, but the Beavers whittled it down to 11 by halftime, and then outscored MSJ by 13 in the second half.  They missed four straight FTs in the last 13 seconds, but played solid enough defense to hold on.

[RO_24]

Rather scary last night...I thought after that 17 point lead, we were doomed.  Kids held tough and played hard though to get back and win the game...I like my one miss for sure, now they come to Bluffton on Saturday. 

Nate said something about PJ being out 2 weeks, I was thinking it was his knee though?  Could be wrong.  Well supposedly BU was #1 in nation in FT shooting heading into last night, but after last night, I think it's safe to say, they aren't #1 today.  Good W though.

[Darryl Nester]

Rod:  Yes, I think it is his knee rather than his ankle; I can't recall what my son told me, and he might have gotten bad information himself.

It would be nice to have PJ healthy for the Defiance game (which is two weeks from last night), so hopefully that two-week prognosis will be accurate.

I checked the team FT rankings.  Bluffton slipped to 80.2%, while Elmhurst (the #2 FT-shooting team) went 6/7 last night to take over #1 at 80.7%.  (The #3 team, UW-Oshkosh, also had an off-night and hit only 68.8%, slipping to 79.3%.)  Probably more than you wanted to know, but by now I assume you realize that you don't ask statistics questions around me if you're not prepared to get a detailed answer.

I would have been a lot more relaxed at the end of the game if we had made at least 1 of those last 4 FTs.  I still remember our first season in the HCAC, when (I think) MSJ was playing their first season ever of basketball, and they won the game on a three-pointer that bounced off the glass and fell through as the buzzer sounded.  I was afraid I was going to see a replay of that last night.  Hopefully, we'll be able to get back to solid FT shooting from now on.

[RO_24]

Darryl,

It's funny you said that, because I actually went to Elmhurst and Osh Kosh's website and checked the same thing...I really should be doing work, but who needs to work, more fun looking at those kinds of stats.

I was a part of that game, and it was miserable, because we got beat by 2-3 last second shots that year on our way to a stellar 0-fer HCAC.  I definitely had that same thought process in my head last night, and I believe last year it came down to the end as well.

[RO_24]

Matchups for Tomorrow:

Defiance   Anderson (Ind.)     
Rose-Hulman   Hanover     
Transylvania   Thomas More     
Manchester   Mt. St. Joseph     
Franklin   Bluffton 

I'm thinking, Defiance, Hanover, TU, MSJ, and Bluffton in a tight one...

[Darryl Nester]

I learned my lesson from Wednesday's match-ups, and will agree with all of Rod's picks.

I certainly would not mind if Anderson pulled off the upset and beat Defiance, but I expect that tomorrow, DC will play more like the team that beat Transy by 33 than the team that lost to Franklin by 10.

I'm a bit nervous about the Franklin/Bluffton game tomorrow, with the Grizzlies coming off their big win at Defiance, and Kerry Prather looking for his 400th career win.  Add to that the fact that (if memory serves) Bluffton has never picked up a season sweep against Franklin.  At least, for the sake of my blood pressure, I hope we shoot free throws closer to our 80.2% average (or better).

[Darryl Nester]

The visiting teams take 3 of the 4 conference games yesterday, and Transy won on the road at Thomas More, too:

Defiance 72, Anderson, 53
Rose-Hulman 73, Hanover  71
Franklin 80, Bluffton 67 -- win #400 for Kerry Prather

Manchester 63, Mt. St. Joseph 65

Transylvania 71, Thomas More 68

RHIT's 73 points is their second-highest output of the season, and 10 points above their average.  Their 63.2 ppg is lowest in the conference (but they lead the conference in scoring defense, allowing ann average of 61.6 ppg).  Their third-highest was 70 points in their previous game ... but it took them overtime to hit that number.  Their highest output was 102-52 over Blackburn, which means that despite their low per-game average, they are one of only three teams in the conference to break 100 this season (along with Anderson and MSJ). 

[Darryl Nester]

Defiance beat Hanover, 58-49, but all the other home teams fell:

Rose-Hulman 63, Bluffton 60
Transylvania 68, Manchester 64
Anderson 70, Mt. St. Joseph 68

Bluffton played without starter Zack Kraus (blister on his foot), usual starter Nick Wilson saw limited time off the bench and only managed 1 point after being sick all week, and starter Josh Eichar left the game midway through the second half with an ankle injury.  Add that to the loss of P.J. Juenger two weeks ago, and the Beavers were pretty thin.  Colt Cunningham's 3-point attempt as time expired looked good, but bounced off.

BU is now a painful 2-4 at home in the conference, and looking at a stretch of 3 road games ... which might not be all bad, as they are 3-0 on the road.  Hopefully we can get healthy enough to put up a fight at Defiance on Wednesday.

[RO_24]

Big week this week in the conference for Bluffton.  They have went from a battle for the crown to needing to win a couple here to get the ball rolling, and not fall short of the conference tournament.  I believe Eichar went out with a rib injury that has been bothering him all year.  Not sure what's wrong yet, but it was the ribs they were working on. 

Been a disappointing last couple of games, hopefully Bluffton sees that they can't win the games by themselves, and may need to start setting screens and maybe the coaches will implement a new offense, but with the way they have been coaching lately, they like this one-on-one ball they are playing.  Little more coaching and little less yelling hasn't ever hurt a team either, probably why some of the guys on the team are trying to do everything on their own...All I know is that Defiance and Anderson are big games this week, and hopefully they start playing together.

[RO_24]

It looks like it's going to  be a 5 team race for the final 4 spots in the tournament.  6 games left for most teams, a couple with 7, and there' a game seperating 5 teams.

Went to the game last night, Defiance came out guns-a-blazin again, led 31-9 at one point, than the game was played at an even pace the rest of the way with DC winning 90-71.  Pettaway killed on the inside, he played hard, and there wasn't much Bluffton threw out there that didn't result in Pettaway getting a lay-up or even hit a couple 10 foot J's...

Traveling to Anderson Saturday, come Beavers, have to grab one now.

[RO_24]

Well, I'm going to post because I'm superstitious and maybe a post on the site will turn the luck of the Beavers for a positive in the last 2 weeks of the season.

Played hard but fell short on Saturday, have to get them there...RHIT plays AU, MC and DC to finish out their season, and BU plays HC, MSJ, and TU to round theirs out...

Darryl, what does your statistical prowess tell you the chances of a conference tournament position be for us?