MBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[Darryl Nester]

Rod:

I'll try to run those numbers this afternoon, if I have time between meetings at noon, 2 and 4.

[Added at 1:18pm]
Oops, this will have to wait until this evening; the final version of my program to run all the scenarios is not on my office computer.

[Darryl Nester]

Back by popular demand (because Rod asked for it): Darryl Nester's second annual statistical over-analysis of the end of the HCAC season.

First, the disclaimer I posted numerous times last season:  This is based on my interpretation and implementation of the HCAC tie-breakers.  Additionally, two new steps have been added to the tie-breaker process, after the "internal" criteria (performance vs HCAC competition):

• The NCAA Quality-of-win-index
• Win-loss percentage in-region

I made no attempt to incorporate these criteria; my program essentially flips a coin to break ties that cannot be broken by the internal criteria.  I'll have to check how often that happens.  Finally, please remember that the numbers below represent percentages of all possible scenarios; they are NOT probabilities (unless you believe that every remaining game is a 50-50 contest).

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Defiance	10-2	5-1	5-1	@ MC, vs. TU, @ FC, vs. RHIT
Transylvania	8-4	3-3	5-1	vs. MSJ, @ DC, @ HC, vs. BU
Anderson	8-5	5-2	3-3	@ RHIT, vs. FC, @ MC
Hanover	7-5	3-3	4-2	vs. FC, @ BU, vs. TU
Franklin	7-5	4-3	3-2	@ HC, @ AU, vs. DC, @ MSJ
Rose-Hulman	6-7	2-4	4-3	vs. AU, vs. MC, @ DC
Bluffton	5-8	2-5	3-3	vs. HC, @ MSJ, @ TU
Mount St. Joseph	3-10	3-3	0-7	@ TU, vs. BU, vs. FC
Manchester	2-10	2-3	0-7	vs. DC, @ RHIT, vs. AU

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	In tournament
DC	87.37%	8.55%	3.74%	0.34%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
TU	7.94%	39.85%	25.98%	16.75%	8.68%	0.76%	100.0%
AU	0.42%	18.18%	28.68%	28.31%	16.87%	7.54%	100.0%
HC	0.51%	13.65%	19.58%	27.20%	28.93%	8.57%	98.4%
FC	3.76%	19.71%	19.61%	19.31%	20.64%	14.48%	97.5%
RHIT	0.00%	0.06%	2.41%	8.00%	21.64%	50.25%	82.4%
BU	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.09%	3.25%	17.23%	20.6%
MSJ	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.17%	1.2%
MC	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.0%

[RO_24]

Darryl, thanks for posting that by popular demand on this board...1-0.

I like our chances, Although the percentages don't show it, I think 7-9 will  get us in the tourney...Our guys will be ready for Hanover Saturday, all we have to do is completely change our defunct offense and play like they were a month ago when we played Hanover there, and looked real good.  It's all mental right now...

Nothing but love for RHIT, but I hope they choke their last 3 games away.

[Darryl Nester]

... Additionally, two new steps have been added to the tie-breaker process, after the "internal" criteria (performance vs HCAC competition):

• The NCAA Quality-of-win-index
• Win-loss percentage in-region

I made no attempt to incorporate these criteria; my program essentially flips a coin to break ties that cannot be broken by the internal criteria.  I'll have to check how often that happens.

FWIW, my program reports an unbreakable tie (by internal criteria) for 6th place in 100 of the 65536 possible scenarios.  (There are also 256 ties for 2nd place, and some number of completely unimportant ties for 7th place.)

Although the percentages don't show it, I think 7-9 will  get us in the tourney...

Just for fun, I ran my program to see what would happen if:

Bluffton finishes 8-8 (they win out)	... in tournament in 73.2% of scenarios
Bluffton finishes 7-9 (-HC, +MSJ, +TU)	38.2% of scenarios
Bluffton finishes 7-9 (+HC, -MSJ, +TU)	41.6% of scenarios
Bluffton finishes 7-9 (-HC, +MSJ, -TU)	40.1% of scenarios

[Darryl Nester]

Oops -- I discovered this morning that my program "lost" one of the games from the end of the season.  That is, it did not include the Hanover/Manchester game in the scenarios, which has some effect on the possible outcomes. Among other things, this change means that Manchester now has a (slim) chance at making the field of 6, and Transy is in "only" 99.9% of the time instead of 100%.

This also makes a little difference in the chance of an "unbreakable" tie for 6th place, but I'll give that more detailed report after tonight's games are finished, when things will be at least slightly clearer. Here are the corrected tables:

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Defiance	10-2	5-1	5-1	@ MC, vs. TU, @ FC, vs. RHIT
Transylvania	8-4	3-3	5-1	vs. MSJ, @ DC, @ HC, vs. BU
Anderson	8-5	5-2	3-3	@ RHIT, vs. FC, @ MC
Hanover	7-5	3-3	4-2	vs. FC, @ BU, vs. TU, @ MC
Franklin	7-5	4-3	3-2	@ HC, @ AU, vs. DC, @ MSJ
Rose-Hulman	6-7	2-4	4-3	vs. AU, vs. MC, @ DC
Bluffton	5-8	2-5	3-3	vs. HC, @ MSJ, @ TU
Mount St. Joseph	3-10	3-3	0-7	@ TU, vs. BU, vs. FC
Manchester	2-10	2-3	0-7	vs. DC, @ RHIT, vs. AU, vs. HC

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	In tournament
Defiance	87.83%	8.35%	3.53%	0.29%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
Anderson	0.35%	14.99%	29.07%	27.92%	19.60%	8.07%	100.0%
Transylvania	7.60%	36.64%	24.16%	19.33%	10.93%	1.21%	99.9%
Franklin	3.69%	18.96%	19.34%	19.93%	20.30%	15.25%	97.5%
Hanover	0.52%	20.91%	21.02%	22.79%	20.79%	8.39%	94.4%
Rose-Hulman	0.00%	0.15%	2.87%	8.79%	23.11%	47.36%	82.3%
Bluffton	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.94%	5.26%	17.93%	24.1%
Mount St. Joseph	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.10%	1.1%
Manchester	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.67%	0.7%

[RO_24]

Darryl,

Thanks for putting this together, although it is a mess right now, gives you something to look at...Now hopefully everything pans out well for the Beavers tonight, and come tomorrow it will still be a mess, instead of a little bit more clear.

[Darryl Nester]

Despite scoring only 8 points in the last 10:42 of the contest, Anderson survives at RHIT, 49-44.
Transy holds off a late surge by MSJ to win 77-73.
Defiance is beating Manchester by 8 with 14 seconds left in OT (only the second OT contest in the conference this year), and Franklin beat Hanover, 66-51.

So (assuming Defiance does win their contest)...

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Defiance	11-2	5-1	6-1	vs. TU, @ FC, vs. RHIT
Transylvania	9-4	4-3	5-1	@ DC, @ HC, vs. BU
Anderson	9-5	5-2	4-3	vs. FC, @ MC
Franklin	8-5	4-3	4-2	@ AU, vs. DC, @ MSJ
Hanover	7-6	3-4	4-2	@ BU, vs. TU, @ MC
Rose-Hulman	6-8	2-5	4-3	vs. MC, @ DC
Bluffton	5-8	2-5	3-3	vs. HC, @ MSJ, @ TU
Mount St. Joseph	3-11	3-3	0-8	vs. BU, vs. FC
Manchester	2-11	2-4	0-7	@ RHIT, vs. AU, vs. HC

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	In tournament
Defiance	90.23%	7.42%	2.34%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
Transylvania	7.42%	43.55%	28.52%	11.33%	9.18%	0.00%	100.0%
Anderson	0.00%	20.51%	32.42%	35.16%	11.91%	0.00%	100.0%
Franklin	2.34%	25.59%	27.54%	33.79%	7.91%	2.73%	99.9%
Hanover	0.00%	2.93%	9.18%	18.36%	47.73%	14.01%	92.2%
Rose-Hulman	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.37%	13.65%	59.81%	74.8%
Bluffton	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	9.62%	23.44%	33.1%
Mount St. Joseph	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.0%
Manchester	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.0%

[johnnywoo]

Looks like the HCAC is wide open going into the final two weeks. Their should be  alot of jockying for position. Anderson seems to be hotter than Debbie Clemens in the SI swimsuit issue right now by the way they have been playing . Defiance has dominated HCAC action with the exception of a couple of hick ups as I look for them to roll this weekend. Hanover and Franklin will always be in the hunt. I don't understand how Manchester can't ever seem to even get in the tournament . Steve Alford must have taken the program with him. Any thoughts on how things will finish?

[Gregory Sager]

I don't understand how Manchester can't ever seem to even get in the tournament . Steve Alford must have taken the program with him.

Manchester went 18-9, 11-3 as recently as 2003-04.

[Darryl Nester]

Manchester loses in OT for the second game in a row, 47-52 to RHIT.  (Yes, that is after OT.)  The Spartans had a lead at halftime, but RHIT held them to only 13 in the second half, and 2 in OT.

Franklin beat AU, 86-67.

The Beavers snapped their 6-game losing streak, beating Hanover 63-52.  Nate Overmyer hit a career-high 25 in his last home game.

DC beat TU -- or they will after the next 3.9 seconds tick away.  TU led by 7 points late, but DC came back and held on to a 3-point lead; Mike Floyd is at the line right now, and his FTs will determine the final margin.

....64-59 after the FTs, but Lane just picked up a technical, so DC can pad the margin a bit.

That locks in the conference title for DC, and the remaining scenarios look like this:

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Defiance	12-2	6-1	6-1	@ FC, vs. RHIT
Franklin	9-5	4-3	5-2	vs. DC, @ MSJ
Transylvania	9-5	4-3	5-2	@ HC, vs. BU
Anderson	9-6	5-3	4-3	@ MC
Hanover	7-7	3-4	4-3	vs. TU, @ MC
Rose-Hulman	7-8	3-5	4-3	@ DC
Bluffton	6-8	3-5	3-3	@ MSJ, @ TU
Mount St. Joseph	3-11	3-3	0-8	vs. BU, vs. FC
Manchester	2-12	2-4	0-8	vs. AU, vs. HC

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	In tournament
DC	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
FC	0.00%	65.62%	25.00%	9.38%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
TU	0.00%	31.25%	50.00%	6.25%	12.50%	0.00%	100.0%
AU	0.00%	3.12%	18.75%	71.88%	6.25%	0.00%	100.0%
HC	0.00%	0.00%	6.25%	12.50%	28.12%	30.47%	77.3%
RHIT	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	41.41%	42.19%	83.6%
BU	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	11.72%	27.34%	39.1%
MSJ	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.0%
MC	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.0%

[RO_24]

Well 2 games left, 3 teams vying for 2 spots...RHIT just needs to beat DC on Saturday and they are in, HC and BU could make a run for it, scares me now that Franklin is playing well, especially since RHIT swept them in their two meetings...

Guys looked better on Saturday and withstood a couple Hanover runs, which was good to see, 2 more games, need 2 more wins, and very capable of winning both if they play together...Still not a fan whatsoever of the Offense they are running, so many threats to score on the team, and we are running into each other on the court...Play together and get into the tournament...Good luck fellas.

[Darryl Nester]

Tonight's results:
Hanover over Transylvania, 70-55 (the only winner at home)
Anderson over Manchester, 81-71   
Defiance over Franklin, 68-61   
Bluffton over Mount St. Joseph, 75-67

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Defiance	13-2	6-1	7-1	vs. RHIT
Anderson	10-6	5-3	5-3
Transylvania	9-6	4-3	5-3	vs. BU
Franklin	9-6	4-4	5-2	@ MSJ
Hanover	8-7	4-4	4-3	@ MC
Bluffton	7-8	3-5	4-3	@ TU
Rose-Hulman	7-8	3-5	4-3	@ DC
Mount St. Joseph	3-12	3-4	0-8	vs. FC
Manchester	2-13	2-5	0-8	vs. HC

The current outlook for Saturday:

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	In tournament
DC	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
AU	0.00%	25.00%	50.00%	25.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
TU	0.00%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	25.00%	0.00%	100.0%
FC	0.00%	50.00%	25.00%	25.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.0%
HC	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	25.00%	37.50%	25.00%	87.5%
RHIT	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	25.00%	43.75%	68.8%
BU	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	12.50%	31.25%	43.8%

[RO_24]

It was a good effort again last night by the Beavers...Pretty ugly game, I think 60 FT's were taken between the teams, but they pulled one off...Hopefully Saturday  everything will works it way out, and the Beavers can get a W down in Transy, and as long as they break the press and withstand a quick start, they can do...DC needs to beat RHIT, so hopefully that happens, or the Choke of all Chokes for my buddy at HC and they go down to Manchester....

We'll see how it all plays out.

[hooper]

HCAC Tourney Tonight: Anderson beats Hanover to set up showdown with Defiance in HCAC Semi on Friday.  Transy wins at home vs. Rose Hulman to get tough matchup with Franklin.  Live internet looked good.  Heard Coach Valentine went a little overboard on scout but i guess it worked.

[Pat Coleman]

Cool -- merging this into the HCAC board, just FYI.