MBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[Darryl Nester]

Defiance 71 Bluffton 68     
Hanover 71 Franklin 86       
Transylvania 73 Mt. St. Joseph 54
Anderson 100 Manchester 62

Hcacdad1 -- you got all your picks right, but I have to disagree with the suggestion that Bluffton beating Defiance would have been an upset.  The Beavers were leading by 10 with about 5 minutes to go ... but went cold from the field after that.  I think we had more turnovers than shots attempts, including two costly turnovers in the final minute.

[andersonfan1]

Looks like a tight race at the top with 4 teams at 6-2.......Franklin, Anderson, Defiance, Transy......
Bluffton at 4-4
Manchester 3-5
Rose-Hulman and MSJ 2-6
and then Hanover at 1-7

I disagree with the last post however, because if Bluffton would have won last night I believe it would have been an upset. Defiance is more well rounded. I give props to Bluffton though for hanging tough and almost pulling out the victory.......

Here are my picks for Saturday

Rose Hulman 51     Bluffton 57
Hanover 64            Defiance 77
Franklin 75            Anderson 83
Manchester 54         Transy 74

No real upsets......Anderson-Franklin game might go either way, but I'm picking Anderson at home.....

[hcacdad1]

Another exciting night!
New posted total: 11-1

When I say upset- I am speaking soley in terms of standings. Hoever, if I were to throw out the ranking and conduct a "BCS like" formula- I would have to admit I would consider the Beavers beating Defiance an upset as well. Bluffton does have a nice club, but it is clear that Defiance has more "talent" 1-8 than anyone in the league. However "talent" does not always covert to wins.

Anderson fan.. Glad to see you join in picking the winners. I will wait to post mine...

Sorry Darryl....not sure which way I am going this week.... but if I had to pick 1 upset for Saturday.... Bluffton would on my upset special watch list. We'll see though...I need to sleep on this one!

[hcacdad1]

Posted Total: 11-1
Predictions for Saturday
Rose Hulman 60 Bluffton 54
Hanover 62 Defiance 75
Franklin 71 Anderson 81
Manchester 62 Transylvania 75

There you have it...good luck!

[Darryl Nester]

Rose-Hulman 73, Bluffton 82
Hanover 47, Defiance 50 (score was 15-15 at halftime)
Manchester 55, Transylvania 69
Franklin 74, Anderson 67

Bluffton hit 28-30 FTs for the game, including 21 straight in the second half.  (LOTS of fouls in the second half -- RHIT also had quite a few attempts, but only hit 15-22.)

[GRIZ_BACKER]

Franklin, Defiance, and Transy still notted at the top and the Ravens slip at home and put themselves in a tough spot for a chance to host the post season tournament. 

Congrats to the Griz today for a great road win.

[cave2bens]

Most fortunate that Defiance, like Bluffton, was able to can 12-12 charity tosses in the second half as shooting from the field (13% from 3, south of 38% for game) was pretty abyssmal.  Coach Miller returned to Weaner (McMaster back in my era) with a solid game plan and very nearly pulled off an upset.  Can't blame the rims for either teams' shooting performances - the womens' matchup tallied 181 points.   

Personal obligations force abandonment of southern climes for cornfield frigidity over the next couple of weeks.  Look forward to attendance of the Andy-DC tilt as a necessary respite from familial dysfunction.   

[GRIZ_BACKER]

Franklin keeps the train rolling with another win this week at home over the Beavers and Defiance and Transy stay half a game back due to scheduling (played one less game).

Anderson (whose conference title it was to lose to paraphrase a quote a few weeks ago) has lost again and is essentially eliminated from the regular season title and a chance to host.  Hanover's record is a fooler as they have beat the Ravens and took the Pioneers to OT last thurs eve.  FC will get all they want down there in a couple of weeks for sure.

Good luck to the Grizzlies going forward.

[Darryl Nester]

My computer program just ran through the 2²⁴ possible outcomes for the remaining 24 games, and according to those results, the top three teams are guaranteed a spot in the conference tournament, with AU and BU nearly certain.

Franklin's sweeps of AU and BU give the Grizzlies the edge to take the #1 spot (and make it unlikely that AU or BU could take that spot).  Both TU and DC have beaten FC, but still have to play at Franklin, where the Grizzlies have yet to lose.  Season splits with TU and DC would just about lock in the top spot for Franklin, since DC lost to AU and TU lost to BU.

Here are the percents of all scenarios that place each team at each tournament seed:

Team      #1      #2      #3      #4      #5      #6            In tournament
FC:     37.50%  31.74%  25.48%   5.00%   0.28%   0.00%            100.0%
TU:     34.57%  29.56%  19.92%  10.44%   5.48%   0.03%            100.0%
DC:     25.59%  27.80%  24.01%  17.10%   5.46%   0.05%            100.0%
AU:      2.01%   8.45%  22.21%  43.50%  22.60%   1.19%             99.9%
BU:      0.34%   2.46%   8.38%  23.75%  58.22%   5.65%             98.8%
MC:      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   1.47%  36.74%             38.3%
RHIT:    0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.11%   1.74%  31.64%             33.5%
MSJ:     0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.07%   3.59%  13.84%             17.5%
HC:      0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   1.17%  10.86%             12.0%

[GRIZ_BACKER]

good stuff Darryl.  As a FC fan I like it!!  Now FC needs to go out and keep winning.

[Darryl Nester]

MAJOR upset at AU, as RHIT takes out the Ravens in OT.  The other three home teams came out on top.

Rose-Hulman 83, Anderson 77
Defiance 48, Transylvania 53
Mt. St. Joseph 78, Hanover 82
Manchester 64, Franklin 78

More good news for FC, obviously ... I'll check out the effect of these new results on the tournament scenarios a bit later.

[Darryl Nester]

Current standings and upcoming games:

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Franklin	10-2	6-0	4-2	vs. TU, vs. DC, @ MSJ, @ HC
Transylvania	9-2	6-0	3-2	@ FC, @ RHIT, vs. BU, vs. MSJ, @ AU
Defiance	8-3	4-1	4-2	@ FC, vs. AU, @ MSJ, vs. RHIT, vs. BU
Anderson	7-5	4-2	3-3	@ DC, @ BU, vs. MC, vs. TU
Bluffton	6-5	3-2	3-3	vs. HC, vs. AU, @ TU, @ DC, vs. MSJ
Rose-Hulman	4-8	1-5	3-3	vs. TU, vs. HC, @ DC, @ MC
Hanover	3-9	3-3	0-6	@ BU, @ RHIT, vs. MC, vs. FC
Manchester	3-9	1-5	2-4	vs. MSJ, @ HC, @ AU, vs. RHIT
Mount St. Joseph	2-9	2-4	0-5	@ MC, vs. DC, vs. FC, @ TU, @ BU

... and the end-of-season scenarios:

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	In tournament
FC	45.91%	34.34%	18.59%	1.15%	0.01%	0.00%	100.0%
TU	44.94%	36.67%	13.29%	3.88%	1.23%	0.00%	100.0%
DC	8.87%	22.53%	38.83%	21.97%	7.72%	0.08%	100.0%
AU	0.08%	3.27%	20.53%	43.75%	30.42%	1.92%	100.0%
BU	0.20%	3.19%	8.76%	28.98%	53.52%	4.31%	99.0%
RHIT	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.24%	3.36%	47.15%	50.8%
HC	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.05%	2.43%	18.49%	21.0%
MC	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.20%	22.69%	22.9%
MSJ	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.11%	5.36%	6.5%

(You might wonder, "How did AU lose, but lock in a spot in the tournament?"  It's because Franklin won.  The slim chance that AU would end up #7 or below involved scenarios that had FC, AU, and at least one other team tied toward the bottom of the top 6, and when tie-breakers are considered, FC's sweep of AU placed the Ravens out of the tournament.  FC's win made those scenarios impossible.)

[GRIZ_BACKER]

HCAC dad has exited the board subsequent to the Raven meltdown.

[BUBeaverFan]

He might be waiting for the tourney to start.  I just hope the Beavers can hold onto to their spot.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

If the Ravens win the tourney he may reappear. LOL