MBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[dc_has_been]

Top 25 poll is out and Anderson was able to hold on and stay in for another week.  DC has climbed their way back up to the receiving votes area again and if Hanover didn't have such a rough first half of the season they would be getting votes too. 

[Buzz]

Yup, DC got votes for the 3rd week in a row and the 7th time this year. Winners of 5 straight and 7 of their last 8, it would be nice if the Jackets can ride that wave a while longer and mix it up with Hanover and Anderson for the HCAC title this weekend. I really think those are the three teams that could win this.

DC SHOULD have enough to get past a young Franklin team on Tuesday - although the Griz with Starrett and Conoley have plenty of fire power to be scary. Either way, it should be a fun night in the Hive with a pair of HCAC Quarterfinal games on the slate. DC's women host Manchester at 6, with the men following immediately after.

The game of the night will likely be over in North Manchester with the Spartans hosting Transy in the 4/5 matchup. MC swept the reg season, but both were gems. Anyone believe in the 'hard to beat a team 3 times' theory? If so, you gotta think Transy is due here.

[Jackets Backer]

That game west of here Tuesday should be a dandy. I too think Transy is due against Manchester. The ball just bounced the wrong way both times this year.

I'd be really surprised to see Franklin make a run this week having lost six straight and only having one win against the rest of the field ... I think they beat Hanover right after New Years. Plus they'd have to beat the top three seeds possibly with two of those on the other team's court if they played AU in the finals. That's a tall task for a super young team.


But the other five have shown the ability to beat anyone in the league. Obviously Hanover is the hottest team and Defiance is probably playing its best basketball of the season too and seemed to figure out some things defensively late in the year. They also have six seniors which is priceless at this time of year. Anderson has lost a little bit of that invincibility it maybe had two months ago having lost to Defiance, Transy and Hanover over the last month. Two months ago I think the Ravens were heavy favorites to win this. As is a staple of Jon Miller teams, they play shutdown D. During their winning streak the Panthers have held their opponents in the 50s four times. Anderson got 75 but that was in OT and Defiance scored 70, but that's still pretty good against the league's top two offenses. The thing with Hanover is its not putting the biscuit in the bucket at a high percentage this weekend, its defense will keep them in the game. That's scary for whoever tangles with Hanover.

I wouldn't want to have to make a wager on who will be cutting down the nets Saturday night.

[zander]

Any last predictions for Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, or Freshman of the Year?
Is that decided pre or post tourney play?

[Buzz]

The names that jump into my head would be...

Coach of the Year - Jon Miller
Hanover was supposed to be a power in 2010-2011. Miller got it done one year early and the Panthers could be a top-20 team throughout most of next season.

Player of the Year - Nick Sales
Sales is an impact senior on a top-four team in the league. Plus he's among the league's best in fg%, ft%, scoring, rebounding, steals and assists.

Rookie of the Year - Ryan Nowicki
Nowicki started most of the year for a very good Hanover team and is really one of their top scoring threats at this point in the year. I think his numbers in HCAC action set him apart from the other standouts in a very exciting freshmen class in the HCAC this season.

[Buzz]

of course after typing that, i wonder how likely it is for Anderson to not get any of those honors. I don't think they have a case for Freshman of the Year, but one can easily point to Slyder for COY and Morrison for POY. I guess my initial post is how I would vote, but I think it will turn out to be Slyder, Romes, Nowicki.

[Gregory Sager]

Anyone believe in the 'hard to beat a team 3 times' theory?

It's a myth. Think about it ... it makes no sense whatsoever.

[zander]

I think it's only true if you're rooting for the team that has been beaten twice-

[Buzz]

Eh, I think it makes sense that it's tough to beat a good team three times...but I don't think just because Anderson and Hanover will be going for their third wins over Manchester and Defiance that it makes MC and DC more likely to win that third game. The only games that matter will be 6 and 8 pm on Friday at AU. I think the best four teams in the league made it and it should be a great weekend.

[Jackets Backer]

Saying it's hard to beat a team three times in the same year is just that, a saying. I think it's an easy term to use when a team that's been beaten twice by one team wins the third matchup. Now if there is a big talent gap between the two teams then it's not all that hard for the one with the most talent to win three times or even like 20. I think Indiana could play Syracuse 20 times and never  win just because Syracuse is that much better.

If two teams are pretty evenly matched, I think it is very difficult to beat a team three straight times. Sooner or later it's bound to happen just because both are so close in talent. Sometimes the ball just bounces the right way the first two times and then it bounces the other way the third time. I'm not implying that the ball bounced Hanover's way the first two times they played Defiance. Hanover didn't need the ball to bounce its way because the Panthers simply played better and they certainly could play better again Friday and Defiance could do the same.

Manchester did it to Transy and Anderson and Hanover could very easily do the same thing Friday. But I also think that Defiance and Manchester have good chances of winning as well. I don't see a whole heckuva a lot of difference between the four teams left. I've seen all four teams play and they're all pretty good.

Manchester is certainly good enough to win a pair this weekend as the 4. Let's be honest, Defiance and Hanover are pretty evenly matched and not much separates Anderson from Manchester. Should be exciting three games at AU this weekend.

I'm not going to lie to you and some of us said it a few weeks back. I think a lot of Defiance folks are glad to get one more shot at Hanover.

[Gregory Sager]

Eh, I think it makes sense that it's tough to beat a good team three times...

You didn't ask if it was tough to beat a good team three times. This is what you asked:

Anyone believe in the 'hard to beat a team 3 times' theory?

As for the "tough to beat a good team three times" theory:

Saying it's hard to beat a team three times in the same year is just that, a saying. I think it's an easy term to use when a team that's been beaten twice by one team wins the third matchup. Now if there is a big talent gap between the two teams then it's not all that hard for the one with the most talent to win three times or even like 20. I think Indiana could play Syracuse 20 times and never  win just because Syracuse is that much better.

Precisely.

If two teams are pretty evenly matched, I think it is very difficult to beat a team three straight times. Sooner or later it's bound to happen just because both are so close in talent. Sometimes the ball just bounces the right way the first two times and then it bounces the other way the third time.

Saying that two teams are evenly matched is an even more narrow qualifier than saying that it's tough to beat a good team three times. Why? Because if you're a great team, than it's not exactly an uphill battle to beat a good team three times, whereas if two teams are evenly matched, then, as you say, it could come down to a bounce here or a bounce there. Even so, however, if the two teams are evenly matched, then it isn't any tougher for Team A to beat Team B for the third time than it was for Team A to beat Team B in their first meeting, or their second. Each time, it's a 50/50 proposition as to which team will win the game -- it's 50/50 the first time, 50/50 the second time, and 50/50 the third time.

In other words, as you can see the cliche is dying the death of a thousand qualifications.

One other thing that you have overlooked is that sometimes it's simply a matter of matchups. You could have two good teams that, for whatever reason, present one team with distinct matchup advantages when the two teams meet. It then becomes no more difficult for the superior-matchups team to win the third game than it was the first two -- assuming that all variables remain the same and neither coach outstrategizes the other -- because the matchup advantages are still there.

The more you think about it, the emptier the cliche gets.

[dc_has_been]

Sager, you just made my head hurt

I'm excited about Friday's matchup in Anderson!  DC gets an opportunity to redeem themselves after two losses to Hanover this season.  Hopefully they bring their A game. 
Hanover in both games out shot DC a total of 55% to 37% and 74% to 67% at the charity stripe.  Hanover took 19 more free throws too.  The thing(s) that kill me are DC crushed Hanover on the offensive glass 30 to 12 and had fewer turnovers 21 to 39.  I guess if you shoot 37% it really doesn't make a difference.  IMO DC will need to play Hanover's game and slow things down and wait for a good shot.  They've shown they can hit the offensive glass, so get the board, reset and do it again.  Also, limit three point shots unless your hot.  47 3's in two games at 21%!!!

[Gregory Sager]

Sager, you just made my head hurt

I get that a lot.

[Jackets Backer]

I disagree about DC having to play Hanover's game. Both games this year and the last two last year were chest to chest, half-court defensive slugfests. I'd much rather see the game sped up kind of like the first game they played a year ago at Hanover when DC just hammered Hanover like 103-70 or something. A up and down the court game would be coach Miller's worst nightmare in my mind. Now it doesn't have to be a track meet but DC needs to get some easy fastbreak buckets. The more easy baskets Defiance gets the better. I think Defiance can win a halfcourt game though ... they just have to make their shots.

Two things need to change this time in my mind. 1. DC needs to get a lead 8, 10 points and put the pressure on Hanover to come back. DC's biggest lead this year against Hanover was 5 points. Hanover was able to relax and play its pace. I felt Defiance was constantly on its heels and taking punches from Hanover. 2. Defiance needs to make some shots. They got good looks in both games, just didn't knock them down.

Hanover has buried its shots, DC has not. If Defiance can shoot a decent percentage 45+ from the field and just a touch better behind the arc that could be the difference Friday evening.

[Buzz]

Tip of the cap to DC's Nick Sales on making D3hoops.com's Team of the Week for his efforts in the the final week of the regular season. Stay hot big fella!

I think that's the 4th HCAC player to make the list this season. I know DC has gotten Wolfrum and Sales and AU's Morrison made it last week.

20 hours now until the Hanover/Defiance semifinal tips. Can't wait.