MBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

Darryl Nester · February 04, 2012, 06:46:50 PM

Anderson 70, Bluffton 67
Mount St. Joseph 64, Defiance 66
Franklin 63, Manchester 64
... and there is a party going on in Richmond, Indiana, tonight ...
Earlham 57, Hanover 53

Four very close games down, one more (Transy/RHIT) left -- currently at halftime with TU leading 26-25.

FCGrizzliesGrad · February 04, 2012, 07:03:35 PM

Quote from: Darryl Nester on February 02, 2012, 08:06:47 AM
I did not have a chance to implement the new tiebreaker rules, so these numbers should be taken as rough,* but based on last night's games, and the assumption that Earlham will lose on the road Hanover and RHIT** (but has a chance in their home games vs MSJ, DC, and MC), the table below shows where the teams end up, as a percent of all possible scenarios for the remaining 23 games.

You know what happens when you assume

Congrats Earlham on your first ever HCAC victory

zander · February 04, 2012, 08:34:35 PM

Tough loss. The only way Hanover can make up for it is to win out and take the conference tourney.

Darryl Nester · February 04, 2012, 09:27:02 PM

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on February 04, 2012, 07:03:35 PM
Quote from: Darryl Nester on February 02, 2012, 08:06:47 AM
I did not have a chance to implement the new tiebreaker rules, so these numbers should be taken as rough,* but based on last night's games, and the assumption that Earlham will lose on the road Hanover and RHIT** (but has a chance in their home games vs MSJ, DC, and MC), the table below shows where the teams end up, as a percent of all possible scenarios for the remaining 23 games.
You know what happens when you assume
Congrats Earlham on your first ever HCAC victory

Ha! The truth is, once Bluffton was no longer in any danger of being Earlham's first victim, I was hoping for Earlham to pull off a win, I just did not expect it to be at Hanover. I don't want to take any credit for their win, though; all of that should go to the long-suffering Earlham players.

Transy won by 5 at RHIT; on a day when the other HCAC games were decided by 1, 2, 3, and 4 points, I guess that qualifies as a blowout.

Here are the current standings (including home and away records), and remaining games:

Transylvania 13-1 7-0 6-1 vs. MSJ, vs. MC, @ HC, @ BU
Hanover 11-3 6-1 5-2 @ AU, vs. BU, vs. TU, @ RHIT
Rose-Hulman 8-6 4-2 4-4 @ FC, vs. DC, vs. EC, vs. HC
Anderson 8-6 4-3 4-3 vs. HC, vs. FC, @ MC, @ MSJ
Bluffton 8-6 4-3 4-3 vs. MC, @ HC, @ DC, vs. TU
Franklin 7-7 5-3 2-4 vs. RHIT, @ AU, @ MSJ, @ DC
Manchester 6-8 6-2 0-6 @ BU, @ TU, vs. AU, @ EC
Defiance 5-9 4-3 1-6 @ EC, @ RHIT, vs. BU, vs. FC
Mount St. Joseph 3-11 3-4 0-7 @ TU, @ EC, vs. FC, vs. AU
Earlham 1-13 0-6 1-7 vs. DC, vs. MSJ, @ RHIT, vs. MC

Below is the table showing how the scenarios play out -- although I still have not implemented the revised tiebreaker scheme, so these are not set in stone. However, it now includes all the remaining games ... including the possibility that the Quakers could win at RHIT.

Team #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Tournament?
TU 90.87% 9.13% -- -- -- -- Yes
HC 9.13% 84.70% 4.80% 1.21% 0.15% -- Yes
RHIT -- 1.85% 30.97% 29.98% 23.49% 10.07% 96.36%
AU -- 0.78% 22.87% 25.78% 23.81% 18.14% 91.39%
BU -- 3.54% 33.43% 23.94% 18.08% 10.88% 89.86%
FC -- -- 6.47% 13.45% 20.92% 29.34% 70.18%
MC -- -- 1.40% 4.82% 10.94% 22.51% 39.68%
DC -- -- 0.04% 0.82% 2.62% 9.03% 12.52%
MSJ -- -- -- -- -- 0.02% 0.02%

dc_has_been · February 08, 2012, 12:36:54 PM

Didn't get a chance to check scores till today and boy was I blown away by the Earlham game!!! Congrats to a much needed victory!
Now I am pulling for a small chance that Defiance wins out which is not an easy task and Franklin to drop three of their four and Manchester to drop two of their four. I know there are many more scenarios that can get DC in the conference tournament but I will start by crossing my fingers for this one.

FCGrizzliesGrad · February 08, 2012, 07:46:00 PM

Franklin has already lost 4 in a row and 3 of their final 4 are on the road. Going to be an interesting final 2 weeks to see who gets in. I think 9-9 will be enough for someone to ensure the 6th spot, 8-10 would be a tiebreaker

Darryl Nester · February 08, 2012, 09:24:36 PM

With wins tonight for Transy, RHIT, Hanover, Manchester, and Defiance, here are the current standings, and the scenario outcomes. According to my program, MSJ is out of the hunt for a tournament spot -- but don't take that as the final word, because I still haven't fixed the tiebreaker rule -- and I probably won't get around to fixing it this season ...

Transylvania 14-1 8-0 6-1 vs. MC, @ HC, @ BU
Hanover 12-3 6-1 6-2 vs. BU, vs. TU, @ RHIT
Rose-Hulman 9-6 4-2 5-4 vs. DC, vs. EC, vs. HC
Anderson 8-7 4-4 4-3 vs. FC, @ MC, @ MSJ
Bluffton 8-7 4-4 4-3 @ HC, @ DC, vs. TU
Manchester 7-8 6-2 1-6 @ TU, vs. AU, @ EC
Franklin 7-8 5-4 2-4 @ AU, @ MSJ, @ DC
Defiance 6-9 4-3 2-6 @ RHIT, vs. BU, vs. FC
Mount St. Joseph 3-12 3-4 0-8 @ EC, vs. FC, vs. AU
Earlham 1-14 0-7 1-7 vs. MSJ, @ RHIT, vs. MC

Team #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Tournament?
TU 87.85% 12.15% -- -- -- -- Yes
HC 12.15% 86.78% 1.07% -- -- -- Yes
RHIT -- 1.07% 63.95% 24.65% 8.66% 1.59% 99.93%
BU -- -- 24.17% 24.88% 19.71% 14.76% 83.53%
AU -- -- 8.53% 25.93% 28.84% 20.02% 83.33%
MC -- -- 1.37% 15.65% 20.54% 26.65% 64.21%
FC -- -- 0.68% 7.45% 18.12% 23.83% 50.07%
DC -- -- 0.22% 1.44% 4.13% 13.15% 18.94%

WAlum · February 10, 2012, 11:29:55 PM

Updated Standings:

14-1 20-2 Transylvania
12-3 16-5 Hanover
9-6 15-7 Rose-Hulman
8-7 14-8 Bluffton
8-7 12-10 Anderson (Ind.)
7-8 10-12 Franklin
7-8 9-13 Manchester
6-9 10-12 Defiance
3-12 7-15 Mt. St. Joseph
1-14 1-21 Earlham

Saturday Games:
Franklin @ Anderson (Ind.)
Defiance @ Rose-Hulman
Manchester   @ Transylvania
Mt. St. Joseph @ Earlham
Bluffton @ Hanover

Darryl Nester · February 11, 2012, 08:37:16 PM

Bluffton wins at Hanover, 51-48, meaning Transy has locked up the regular season championship.
Defiance also won by 3 on the road, knocking off RHIT 62-59.
The other home teams all won big: TU by 20 over Manchester, AU by 14 over Franklin, and Earlham picking up their second win (and first at home) by 18 over MSJ.

Here's what my program says. Franklin's prospects are bad because they were swept by both Transy and Hanover, which Defiance split with TU and Manchester split with HC, which would give them an advantage in the event of a tie.

Transylvania 15-1 9-0 6-1 @ HC, @ BU
Hanover 12-4 6-2 6-2 vs. TU, @ RHIT
Bluffton 9-7 4-4 5-3 @ DC, vs. TU
Rose-Hulman 9-7 4-3 5-4 vs. EC, vs. HC
Anderson 9-7 5-4 4-3 @ MC, @ MSJ
Manchester 7-9 6-2 1-7 vs. AU, @ EC
Defiance 7-9 4-3 3-6 vs. BU, vs. FC
Franklin 7-9 5-4 2-5 @ MSJ, @ DC
Mount St. Joseph 3-13 3-4 0-9 vs. FC, vs. AU
Earlham 2-14 1-7 1-7 @ RHIT, vs. MC

Team #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Tournament?
TU 100.00% -- -- -- -- -- Yes
HC -- 100.00% -- -- -- -- Yes
RHIT -- -- 30.47% 36.72% 28.52% 4.30% Yes
AU -- -- 18.75% 33.20% 41.02% 7.03% Yes
BU -- -- 50.78% 25.39% 11.72% 7.81% 95.70%
MC -- -- -- 2.34% 9.38% 23.83% 35.55%
DC -- -- -- 2.34% 9.38% 30.86% 42.58%
FC -- -- -- -- -- 26.17% 26.17%

WAlum · February 12, 2012, 08:52:16 AM

15-1 21-2 Transylvania
12-4 16-6 Hanover
9-7 15-8 Rose-Hulman
9-7 15-8 Bluffton
9-7 13-10 Anderson (Ind.)
7-9 10-13 Franklin
7-9 9-14 Manchester
7-9 11-12 Defiance
3-13 7-16 Mt. St. Joseph
2-14 2-21 Earlham

BUBeaverFan · February 15, 2012, 05:54:52 AM

Games for tonight 2/15/2012:

Anderson @ Manchester
Franklin @ Mt. St. Joseph
Transylvania @ Hanover
Earlham @ Rose-Hulman
Bluffton @ Defiance

dc_has_been · February 15, 2012, 12:21:34 PM

Some big games tonight for a few schools that are battling for a spot in the HCAC tourney!

BUBeaverFan · February 15, 2012, 09:54:23 PM

Manchester 81 Anderson 71
Franklin 62 MSJ 55
Transylvania 74 Hanover 65
Rose-Hulman 64 Earlham 53
Defiance 55 Bluffton 53

Darryl Nester · February 15, 2012, 09:55:19 PM

Two spots still available, with four teams in the hunt ...

Transylvania 16-1 9-0 7-1 @ BU
Hanover 12-5 6-3 6-2 @ RHIT
Rose-Hulman 10-7 5-3 5-4 vs. HC
Anderson 9-8 5-4 4-4 @ MSJ
Bluffton 9-8 4-4 5-4 vs. TU
Manchester 8-9 7-2 1-7 @ EC
Defiance 8-9 5-3 3-6 vs. FC
Franklin 8-9 5-4 3-5 @ DC
Mount St. Joseph 3-14 3-5 0-9 vs. AU
Earlham 2-15 1-7 1-8 vs. MC

Team #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Tournament?
TU 100.00% -- -- -- -- -- Yes
HC -- 100.00% -- -- -- -- Yes
RHIT -- -- 68.75% 25.00% 6.25% -- Yes
AU -- -- 6.25% 25.00% 56.25% 12.50% Yes
BU -- -- 25.00% 37.50% 6.25% 6.25% 75.00%
MC -- -- -- 12.50% 18.75% 12.50% 43.75%
DC -- -- -- -- 12.50% 31.25% 43.75%
FC -- -- -- -- -- 37.50% 37.50%

FCGrizzliesGrad · February 16, 2012, 05:01:25 AM

Here's the most likely scenario of the final games... Anderson beats MSJ and locks up a spot, Bluffton loses to Transy to finish 9-9, Manchester beats Earlham to also get to 9-9, and either Franklin or Defiance is also in the tie at 9-9.

Based on a three way tie for 5th, the final 2 spots would work out (assuming I'm reading the tiebreakers right):

Defiance beats Franklin:
Manchester gets the 5 seed with a superior H2H record (3-1 vs 2-2 vs 1-3) and Defiance gets the 6 seed by having a better record against #1 Transy (1-1 vs 0-2) leaving Bluffton out of the tourney.

Franklin beats Defiance:
Manchester again gets the 5 seed with a superior H2H record (3-1 vs 2-2 vs 1-3) and Bluffton gets the 6 seed by having a better record against #2 Hanover (1-1 vs 0-2) leaving Franklin out of the tourney.

Of course we all saw what happens when you assume any results back when Earlham finally won...