MBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

[zander]

Never said they won't, just hoping they don't.

[dc_has_been]

Touche!

[dc_has_been]

First of all, Earlham beats RHIT, wow!!!  Next, huge win by Hanover winning on the the road against Transy.  I do not know how the tie breaker system goes (where's Mr. Nester?), but if Hanover wins, they'll at least have the momentum.  Finally, I'm very disappointed in my Jackets getting blown out by Bluffton.  I hope they can close out Saturday with a win to lock down that four spot and get that extra home game against Franklin.

[hotdawg]

If Hanover wins they will have the tie-break for the #1 seed. The HCAC twitter feed posted that info last night - apparently because Hanover swept Transy and Rose split with them....

https://twitter.com/HCACDIII/status/301879288108560384

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

First of all, Earlham beats RHIT, wow!!!  Next, huge win by Hanover winning on the the road against Transy.  I do not know how the tie breaker system goes (where's Mr. Nester?), but if Hanover wins, they'll at least have the momentum.  Finally, I'm very disappointed in my Jackets getting blown out by Bluffton.  I hope they can close out Saturday with a win to lock down that four spot and get that extra home game against Franklin.

I don't know how the tiebreaker would work if Franklin beats Defiance. Unless I didn't see correctly both Franklin and Defiance have the same record against every team in the leauge. What would be the next tiebreaker?

[hotdawg]

According to this article posted by HCAC last year it would come down to NCAA Quality of Wins Index...

http://www.heartlandconf.org/sports/mbkb/2011-12/releases/2_13_week_13_report

Accoring to D3hoops tourney FAQs:

[/b]How does the NCAA compute Quality of Wins index?[/b]

"Thankfully, it no longer computes this flawed metric. It was removed from the selection and regional ranking process for the 2007-08 season."
...of course

I found this article which breaks down what the INDEX is - no idea if it is still relevant but here it is if you want to take a look.

http://www.uscho.com/faq/division-iii-pairwise-rankings-explanation/

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Ok, I used that to figure up the Quality of Wins scores. Taking out all the conference games that had identical results (games against everyone but against each other and Anderson), removing non D3 games from records, and assuming Franklin beats Defiance Saturday, here's what I've got.

Franklin
@ Centre      7 QoW points
Albion        9
@ DePauw      5
@ Millikin   11
@ Defiance    5
vs Trine     12
vs Wabash    10|8*
vs IWU       14
@ Anderson   11
vs Anderson   2
vs Defiance  12


Defiance
Ohio Wesleyan    7
@ Frostburg St   3
@ Ohio Northern 13|11*
vs Alma         10
@ Anderson       3
vs Kalamazoo     8
vs Franklin     12
vs Finlandia     8
vs Adrian        4
vs Anderson     10
@ Franklin       5
*Depends on opponent's final record

Franklin has 96 or 98 while Defiance has 81 or 83. So my assumption is whoever wins the Defiance-Franklin game will host the rematch in the tournament.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

More likely... they are using the NCAA SOS numbers now... that happens in other conferences. I doubt they are using QOWI... they probably just haven't changed the language.

[hotdawg]

Tournament Scenarios courtesy of HCAC Twitter.

Winner of Hanover/ RHIT will be #1 Seed/ Loser will be #2 seed.

https://twitter.com/HCACDIII/status/302449078090993665

Transy is #3 seed.

Winner of Defiance and Franklin will be #4 seed/ Loser will be #5 seed.

https://twitter.com/HCACDIII/status/302449361831469056

MSJ is #6 seed with a win over Anderson.

Anderson is #6 seed with win and Bluffton loss vs Transy.

Bluffton is #6 seed with win over Transy and MSJ loss vs Anderson.

https://twitter.com/HCACDIII/status/302449668724494336

https://twitter.com/HCACDIII/status/302449783518408705

[dc_has_been]

Finally some action on this board and I break my hand today and can barely type.  At least there's some chatter!!!!

[zander]

Sorry to hear it! Should be a lot of good games over the next week....Can't wait to get to Hanover tomorrow and watch the teams battle for 1st place. It will be intense that's for sure.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Finally some action on this board and I break my hand today and can barely type.  At least there's some chatter!!!!

It's still better than the women's board... in the last 2 seasons there's been 13 posts and 12 are from me

[zander]

Finally some action on this board and I break my hand today and can barely type.  At least there's some chatter!!!!

It's still better than the women's board... in the last 2 seasons there's been 13 posts and 12 are from me

that is some serious talkin to yourself.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Using Massey's numbers, here's the odds of each team winning in each round of the conference tourney

                          QF        SF         Final
1 Rose-Hulman           100%      80.74%      46.59%
4 Defiance               71%      14.91%       4.23%
5 Franklin               29%       4.35%       0.94%
3 Transylvania           93%      55.80%      29.49%
6 Mount St. Joseph        7%       0.98%       0.12%
2 Hanover               100%      43.22%      18.64%

[dc_has_been]

Glad to see DC took care of business in the first round.  Hoping RHIT plays the way they played against Earlham in the semi's.

I am expecting a great game between Hanover and Transy.  I'm taking Transy by no more than 5.