MBB: Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference

Darryl Nester · January 31, 2007, 10:43:31 AM

Tonight's games:
Transy @ Anderson
Bluffton @ Defiance
RHIT @ Franklin
Hanover @ MSJ

Here are the current standings, including home and away records. Franklin stands out as having a 4-2 record on the road, while setting at .500 at home.

Team	Overall	Home	Away
MSJ	7-3	4-0	3-3
Defiance	7-4	5-0	2-4
Bluffton	6-4	5-0	1-4
Transy	6-4	4-2	2-2
Franklin	6-4	2-2	4-2
Hanover	5-6	4-2	1-4
Manchester	5-5	4-2	1-3
RHIT	4-7	3-3	1-4
Anderson	1-10	1-4	0-6

Darryl Nester · January 31, 2007, 09:30:58 PM

For the second time this season, Bluffton-Defiance went to OT, and for the second time the Beavers came out on top -- 72-70

. Bluffton led by 9, 62-53, with about 8 minutes in regulation, but DC went on a 12-0 run to take a 3 point lead with under a minute. Mike Anthony hit a 3 with 8 seconds left to force overtime. Anthony also hit the game-winner with 2.6 seconds on the clock; Johnson's long three missed at the buzzer.

This breaks Bluffton's 4-game losing streak in conference road games; Defiance had not lost at home prior to this.

I haven't seen other conference scores yet; I thought with this game in OT, a few other scores might be posted. I'll look around a bit more and post the scores if I can find them.

Darryl Nester · January 31, 2007, 09:46:31 PM

The d3hoops.com scoreboard lists Hanover over MSJ, 59-58.

Franklin beat RHIT, 68-51.

(update) Anderson over Transy, 64-61 in OT.

This sets up a three-way tie at the top between MSJ, BU, and FC.

Darryl Nester · January 31, 2007, 10:03:31 PM

By the way, I hope Defiance fans reading this board -- if there are any -- will forgive the gloating smiley face next to my report of the Bluffton/Defiance score. My 10-year-old son (who was up past his bedtime to hear the end of the game) told me to put it in, and I was swept away in the exuberance of the moment.

Good luck to the Jackets on Saturday against MSJ.

RO_24 · February 01, 2007, 08:22:22 AM

I can't take anymore of the close games, and CJ Johnson's Half-courter at the buzzer missed by an inch, it was dead on...another helluva game that's for sure. Bluffton looked good, but still couldn't put the finishing touches off at the end of the game, as they didn't score until Anthony's 3 to send it into overtime, it was a 4-5 minute drought.

I still hope that with this conference being so close most every year, that they will allow 6 teams make the conference tourney from now on after this year. I don't care if no team below a 4 seed has made the finals in the conference, still isn't right to leave a couple teams out, IMO.

Good luck to the Beavers this weekend against Anderson.

Darryl Nester · February 01, 2007, 09:45:24 AM

Current standings, with remaining games:

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining games
Bluffton	7-4	5-0	2-4	vs. AU, vs. MC, @ TU, vs. MSJ, @ HC
Mount St. Joseph	7-4	4-1	3-3	@ DC, vs. RHIT, vs. FC, @ BU, vs. MC
Franklin	7-4	3-2	4-2	vs. MC, @ TU, @ MSJ, vs. DC, vs. AU
Defiance	7-5	5-1	2-4	vs. MSJ, @ RHIT, @ FC, vs. TU
Transylvania	6-5	4-2	2-3	@ RHIT, vs. FC, vs. BU, @ HC, @ DC
Manchester	5-5	4-2	1-3	@ FC, @ BU, vs. HC, @ AU, vs. RHIT, @ MSJ
Hanover	6-6	4-2	2-4	@ AU, @ MC, vs. TU, vs. BU
Rose-Hulman	4-8	3-3	1-5	vs. TU, @ MSJ, vs. DC, @ MC
Anderson	2-10	2-4	0-6	@ BU, vs. HC, vs. MC, @ FC

Head-to-head matchups are the first determining factor for breaking ties at the end of the regular season (meaning they may well determine who makes the conference tournament).
The table below shows results of these matchups so far; e.g., MSJ has beaten Bluffton at home (but hasn't yet played at Bluffton), and has beaten Franklin at Franklin (and hasn't yet faced FC at home). Notable in this table: MSJ has ensured at least a split with the other four top teams.

Mount St. Joseph:
BU:W_ FC:_W DC:W_ TU:WL MC:_L HC:LL RHIT:_W AU:WW
Bluffton:
MSJ:_L FC:WL DC:WW TU:W_ MC:_L HC:W_ RHIT:WW AU:_L
Franklin:
MSJ:L_ BU:WL DC:_L TU:L_ MC:_W HC:WW RHIT:WW AU:_W
Defiance:
MSJ:_L BU:LL FC:W_ TU:_L MC:WL HC:WW RHIT:W_ AU:WW
Transylvania:
MSJ:WL BU:_L FC:_W DC:W_ MC:LW HC:L_ RHIT:W_ AU:WL
Manchester:
MSJ:W_ BU:W_ FC:L_ DC:WL TU:LW HC:_L RHIT:_L AU:W_
Hanover:
MSJ:WW BU:_L FC:LL DC:LL TU:_W MC:W_ RHIT:WL AU:W_
Rose-Hulman:
MSJ:L_ BU:LL FC:LL DC:_L TU:_L MC:W_ HC:WL AU:WW
Anderson:
MSJ:LL BU:W_ FC:L_ DC:LL TU:WL MC:_L HC:_L RHIT:LL

HCAC-TU · February 01, 2007, 02:08:54 PM

TU has had it. Very sad to see this talented team not continue what they had been working on for the 5 years they have been here. I am not sure what the rest of the season will be like, but the last 2 games have been the lowpoint of their 6 year D3 existence.

Darryl Nester · February 03, 2007, 05:35:54 PM

Bluffton over Anderson, 77-68
Defiance over MSJ, 74-67 (OT)
Transy over RHIT, 62-58
Manchester over Franklin, 73-69

Mike Anthony had 28 in the win over Anderson, moving him into 17th place on the all-time scoring list.

After I came home from the Beavers' game, I listened to the end of the DC/MSJ game on the radio. DC freshman Nick Sales (a leading candidate for FOTY) chipped a tooth--or maybe teeth--when a MSJ player fell on him late in regulation. Presumably his mood was brightened by the Jackets' performance in OT, which included Anthony Pettaway going 6-6 from the free throw line.

Darryl Nester · February 05, 2007, 10:09:57 AM

While I run the risk of talking to myself, I'll update the standings and matchup table for anyone who cares:

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining games
Bluffton	8-4	6-0	2-4	vs. MC, @ TU, vs. MSJ, @ HC
Defiance	8-5	6-1	2-4	@ RHIT, @ FC, vs. TU
Transylvania	7-5	4-2	3-3	vs. FC, vs. BU, @ HC, @ DC
Franklin	7-5	3-3	4-2	@ TU, @ MSJ, vs. DC, vs. AU
Mount St. Joseph	7-5	4-1	3-4	vs. RHIT, vs. FC, @ BU, vs. MC
Manchester	6-5	4-2	2-3	@ BU, vs. HC, @ AU, vs. RHIT, @ MSJ
Hanover	6-6	4-2	2-4	@ AU, @ MC, vs. TU, vs. BU
Rose-Hulman	4-9	3-4	1-5	@ MSJ, vs. DC, @ MC
Anderson	2-11	2-4	0-7	vs. HC, vs. MC, @ FC

Bluffton:
DC:WW TU:W_ FC:WL MSJ:_L MC:_L HC:W_ RHIT:WW AU:WL
Defiance:
BU:LL TU:_L FC:W_ MSJ:WL MC:WL HC:WW RHIT:W_ AU:WW
Transylvania:
BU:_L DC:W_ FC:_W MSJ:WL MC:LW HC:L_ RHIT:WW AU:WL
Franklin:
BU:WL DC:_L TU:L_ MSJ:L_ MC:LW HC:WW RHIT:WW AU:_W
Mount St. Joseph:
BU:W_ DC:WL TU:WL FC:_W MC:_L HC:LL RHIT:_W AU:WW
Manchester:
BU:W_ DC:WL TU:LW FC:LW MSJ:W_ HC:_L RHIT:_L AU:W_
Hanover:
BU:_L DC:LL TU:_W FC:LL MSJ:WW MC:W_ RHIT:WL AU:W_
Rose-Hulman:
BU:LL DC:_L TU:LL FC:LL MSJ:L_ MC:W_ HC:WL AU:WW
Anderson:
BU:WL DC:LL TU:WL FC:L_ MSJ:LL MC:_L HC:_L RHIT:LL

RO_24 · February 05, 2007, 10:58:47 AM

No worries, I get bored at work, so I read.

Wonder what the chances would be to see an at-large come from the conference. I know that typically no one from the HCAC ever gets one, not sure if there has ever been 2 in the tourney at the same time.

David Collinge · February 05, 2007, 11:20:51 AM

Quote from: Darryl Nester on February 05, 2007, 10:09:57 AM
While I run the risk of talking to myself, I'll update the standings and matchup table for anyone who cares:

I care, Darryl. Thanks for helping me and other interested posters/lurkers to keep up with the zany HCAC.

Gregory Sager · February 05, 2007, 09:09:46 PM

Quote from: RO_24 on February 05, 2007, 10:58:47 AM
No worries, I get bored at work, so I read.

Wonder what the chances would be to see an at-large come from the conference.

Not very good, as none of the HCAC contenders has a regional winning percentage better than .680. Last year, the lowest regional winning percentage posted by a team that got a Pool C bid was .714. It would probably take one of the teams with the better regional winning percentages (Bluffton, Defiance, and Manchester) running the table from here on out, only to lose in the HCAC tourney championship game, for the conference to get an at-large bid.

Quote from: RO_24 on February 05, 2007, 10:58:47 AMI know that typically no one from the HCAC ever gets one, not sure if there has ever been 2 in the tourney at the same time.

You're correct. The HCAC has never received an at-large bid. Interestingly, however, three current HCAC teams were in the '99 tourney: Franklin, and two current HCAC members who were then representing difference conferences, Defiance (MIAA) and Rose-Hulman (SCAC).

Darryl Nester · February 07, 2007, 09:04:54 AM

There are 17 games remaining in the regular season, meaning there are 2¹⁷ = 131,072 possible scenarios to determine the final standings.

Some unverified numbers (based on a computer program I wrote yesterday):

About 1.1% of those scenarios result in an "unbreakable" tie for the #1 seed -- meaning the conference tournament site would be determined by the flip of a coin.
About 3.3% of those scenarios result in an unbreakable tie that spans #4 and #5 -- meaning that a team could be excluded from the conference tournament based on a coin flip. (I don't know if this would actually be done, but the decision to only allow the top 4 teams in the HCAC tournament makes this a possibility.)

Additionally, here are the percentage of scenarios for each team making the tournament (middle column) and being the #1 seed (right column). (RHIT and AU have been mathematically eliminated.)

Bluffton	85.3%	41.8%
Defiance	72.7%	11.8%
Transylvania	61.3%	13.2%
Mount St. Joseph	57.3%	14.3%
Franklin	53.7%	7.9%
Manchester	47.5%	9.5%
Hanover	22.0%	1.6%

RO_24 · February 07, 2007, 09:25:40 AM

Always have amazed me by the Math skills...Who knows what will happen in th is wacky conference. I'm hopefully going to get up there tonight to watch the game, I think the guys will be ready talking to my brother, but we'll see how it goes.. He said Manchester is on a roll right now.

Darryl Nester · February 07, 2007, 10:00:14 PM

Scores for tonight:

Bluffton 82, Manchester 79
Hanover 77, Anderson 74
Franklin 76, Transy 66
MSJ 67, RHIT 46