2012 Division III NCAA Tournament

[goscots]

Can we say that the sectional with Wash U, St. Thomas, Puget Sound, Wheaton, Elmhurst, UWSP, UW-Platteville, and UW-Whitewater is going to be ridiculous?  Whoever comes out of that one will definitely deserve it!

This is an absolutely brutal bracket...

One of the toughest, if not the toughest, in the history of the tournament.

Pat - Do you recall a tougher bracket since D-3 Hoops started??

I can suggest another tough bracket. Someone correct me if I am wrong but the intro to Hoopsville has a section with "This bracket is ridiculous - this could be a final four" I beleive they are refering to a bracket from the 2005 tournament that included JCU (who had been to the final four the year before), Wittenberg (Russ and Borchers - who would go to the final four the next year), Wooster (Cooper and Port - who would go to the final four two years later), Calvin (who did go to the final four), Baldwin Wallace (with the All American Davis brothers), Albion (Brandon Crawford, Travis DePree, Mike Thomas) plus perennial contenders Wheaton, Maryville (TN) and Mississippi College. And this was when the tournament had 48 teams, 12 per bracket (count 9 in my list)

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

goscots - I believe you are right on the year and the bracket!

[Gregory Sager]

Yup. And the link between that tough bracket and this years, goscots, is that Wheaton had an All-CCIW second-team freshman guard named Kent Raymond on that 2004-05 team. That team bowed out to Calvin in the first round on a last-second six-footer in the lane by Dan Aultman of the Knights.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

So, when is the tournament pool going to be up?  I'm ready to pick my teams (horribly, if history holds).

[Pat Coleman]

It was up about seven hours ago. On the front page, a big blue bold paragraph in the main article.

[LogShow]

The tough west region bracket makes it really tough to be a homer and pick Puget Sound to the final four...what a dilemma.      

[BUBeaverFan]

If I counted right there are 40 teams that were ranked or received votes in the lates D3Hoops.com Top 25 poll.  35 of the 40 made it into the tourney. 

Lower left ranked and receiving votes - 12/15 (10 top 25)
Upper left ranked and receiving votes - 11/15 (7 top 25)
Upper right ranked and receiving votes - 6/15 (5 top 25)
Lower right ranked and receiving votes - 6/15 (2 top 25)

Best case scenario for final four #1 St. Thomas, #6 Richard Stockton, #10 John Carroll, #12 Ithaca

Final Four in 2008 - #1 Hope, #3 Amherst, #11 Wash U, #18 Ursinus
Final Four in 2007 - #2 Wooster, #4 Virginia Wesleyan, #6 Amherst, #8 Wash U
Final Four in 2006 - #3 Wittenberg, #4 Amherst, #7 Virginia Wesleyan, #11 Illinois Wesleyan
Final Four in 2005 - #1 UW-Steven's Point, #14 Calvin, #19 York (PA), #21 Rochester

I guess as long as the "bracket of death" has one of its' top ranked teams make it to the final four and the other brackets send their top ranked teams, 2009 won't look much different than the past few years.

(added '05 and '06) and obviously I hoping that #2 Wash U makes it to Salem!

[jagluski]

If I counted right there are 40 teams that were ranked or received votes in the lates D3Hoops.com Top 25 poll.  35 of the 40 made it into the tourney. 

Lower left ranked and receiving votes - 12/15 (10 top 25)
Upper left ranked and receiving votes - 11/15 (7 top 25)
Upper right ranked and receiving votes - 6/15 (5 top 25)
Lower right ranked and receiving votes - 6/15 (2 top 25)

Best case scenario for final four #1 St. Thomas, #6 Richard Stockton, #10 John Carroll, #12 Ithaca

Final Four in 2008 - #1 Hope, #3 Amherst, #11 Wash U, #18 Ursinus
Final Four in 2007 - #2 Wooster, #4 Virginia Wesleyan, #6 Amherst, #8 Wash U

I guess as long as the "bracket of death" has one of its top ranked teams make it to the final four and the other brackets send their top ranked teams, 2009 won't look much different than the past couple of years.

That's a very interesting analysis.  Maybe all of us fans of teams in the lower left quadrant should stop complaining (at least, the NCAA would like that)...

[John Gleich]

Point Special,

Did I not say that UPS and UW-SP would be slotted for a rematch in the sweet 16?  Just like clockwork.   

Remarkable, really... especially because it could very easily could have (and arguably should have...) been slotted in such a way that they wouldn't match up until the Elite 8.

Point has the IIAC champ, then the undefeated #1 St. Thomas Tommies (MIAC conf champ and tourney champ) on their own home floor, then the one-loss-to-D3 competition UPS Loggers, then either Wheaton, Wash U, Lawrence (all conference champs and conf tourney champs, Wash U excepted), or WIAC foes Platteville or Whitewater in the Elite 8.  Tough, tough road for a conference champ and conf tourney champ... and likely all on the road too!

[LogShow]

Point Special,

Did I not say that UPS and UW-SP would be slotted for a rematch in the sweet 16?  Just like clockwork.   

Remarkable, really... especially because it could very easily could have (and arguably should have...) been slotted in such a way that they wouldn't match up until the Elite 8.

Point has the IIAC champ, then the undefeated #1 St. Thomas Tommies (MIAC conf champ and tourney champ) on their own home floor, then the one-loss-to-D3 competition UPS Loggers, then either Wheaton, Wash U, Lawrence (all conference champs and conf tourney champs, Wash U excepted), or WIAC foes Platteville or Whitewater in the Elite 8.  Tough, tough road for a conference champ and conf tourney champ... and likely all on the road too!

Where is Kaslow and Bennett when you need them?   

[Just Bill]

They are here and here.

[David Collinge]

There are only three D3 member schools in the Commonwealth of Kentucky; each sponsors both men's and women's basketball.  Of those six squads, five have qualified for the NCAA tournament, all via Pool A.  Those five all also won their conference's regular season championships (Transylvania men and women won the HCAC, Thomas More men and women won the President's, and Centre men won the SCAC East Div.)  The only Kentucky squad that failed to make the tournament, the Centre women, finished with a record of 18-9.  Not bad.

[Gregory Sager]

There are only three D3 member schools in the Commonwealth of Kentucky; each sponsors both men's and women's basketball.  Of those six squads, five have qualified for the NCAA tournament, all via Pool A.  Those five all also won their conference's regular season championships (Transylvania men and women won the HCAC, Thomas More men and women won the President's, and Centre men won the SCAC East Div.)  The only Kentucky squad that failed to make the tournament, the Centre women, finished with a record of 18-9.  Not bad.

Meanwhile, the hoops-mad state of Indiana, which has a grand total of ten D3 institutions sponsoring eighteen basketball teams (one Indiana school, Wabash, is men only, and another, St. Mary's IN, is women only), is suffering from a drought this year. There are no men's teams from Indiana in the big dance, and only one women's team (DePauw) representing the Hoosier State on the distaff side.

[sac]

There are only three D3 member schools in the Commonwealth of Kentucky; each sponsors both men's and women's basketball.  Of those six squads, five have qualified for the NCAA tournament, all via Pool A.  Those five all also won their conference's regular season championships (Transylvania men and women won the HCAC, Thomas More men and women won the President's, and Centre men won the SCAC East Div.)  The only Kentucky squad that failed to make the tournament, the Centre women, finished with a record of 18-9.  Not bad.

Meanwhile, the hoops-mad state of Indiana, which has a grand total of ten D3 institutions sponsoring eighteen basketball teams (one Indiana school, Wabash, is men only, and another, St. Mary's IN, is women only), is suffering from a drought this year. There are no men's teams from Indiana in the big dance, and only one women's team (DePauw) representing the Hoosier State on the distaff side.

They'll make up for it with several teams in the NAIA tournaments.

As many as 7 could make the men's field in NAIA II.

[lefrakenstein]

All this talk about the 'Bracket of Death' and how all the best teams are consistently from one area of the country has gotten me thinking. The current front page seems to suggest that it would be surprising if Middlebury held its own in the final four if not for the bad luck 'bracket of death' teams have had in recent when it actually came to winning the tournament.

Why is it that highly-ranked, heavy favorites haven't fared so well in recent final fours?

One suggestion: D3hoops.com tends to consistently over-estimate teams from a certain area of the country.


Take the all-decade team, a decent indication of how d3hoops.com ranked players, if not teams, over time.

I would make the following assertions:

There is a high degree of geographical concentration of where the honored players played:

11/20 (55%) of players that  made the 1st-4th Team All-Decade played in either Wisconsin or Illinois.
14/20 (70%) of players that made the 1st-4th Team All-Decade played in Wisconsin, Illinois or Pennslyvania.
12/20 (60%) of players that made the 1st-4th Team All-Decade played in either the West or Midwest region.
15/20 (75%) of players that made the 1st-4th Team All-Decade played in the West, Midwest, or Mid-Atlantic region.
10/20 (50%) of players that made the 1st-4th Team All-Decade played in one of just two conferences: the WIAC or CCIW.

Having All-Decade players did not necessarily translate into having successful teams, especially if those players played in Illinois, Wisconsin or Pennslyvania:

2/8 (25%) of the championship teams from the decade came from the CCIW or WIAC (which account for 50% of the represented players), played in Illinios, Wiscosin, or Pennsylvania (which account for 70% of the represented players); or played in the West, Midwest or Mid-Atlantic regions (which account for 75% of represented players).

8/20 (40%) of players that made the 1st-4th Team All-Decade came from one of the five represented teams that played in Illinois or Pennslyvania. None of these five teams ever won a title or even made the finals, and only one team ever made the Final Four (Illinois Wesleyan)

8/16 (50%) - The number of teams represented on the list that never made a final four during the decade. Of these 8 teams, 7 play in Wisconsin, Illinois or Pennslyvania, and the eighth (Augsburg) is in the West region.

2/12 (17%) - The % of teams represented on the list from the West, Mid-West or Mid-Atlantic regions that appeared in multiple Final Fours during the decade

3/4 (75%) - The % of teams represented on the list from regions other than the West, Mid-West or Mid-Atlantic that appeared in mutliple final fours during the decade.

2/12 (17%) - The % of teams represnted on the list the West, Mid-West or Mid-Atlantic regions that won a title during the decade.

3/4 (75%) - The % of teams represented on the list from regions other than the West, Mid-West or Mid-Atlantic that won a title during the decade.


Successful teams from the West or Midwest region were more likely to place a player on the All-Decade Team than teams from other regions.

9/11 (82%) - The % of final four teams hailing from the West or Midwest Regions that placed a player on the All-Decade list.

7/22 (32%) - The % of final four teams hailing from regions other than the West or Midwest that placed a player on the All-Decade list.

3/3 (100%) - The % of teams appearing in multiple final fours and hailing from the West or Midwest Regions that placed a player on the All-Decade list.

3/6 (50%) - The % of teams appearing in multiple final fours and hailing from regions other than the West or Midwest that placed a player on the All-Decade list.

2/2 (100%) - The % of championship teams hailing from the West or Midwest Regions that placed a player on the All-Decade list.

3/6 (50%) - The % of championship teams hailing from regions other than the West or Midwest that placed a player on the All-Decade list.


Given these statisitics, it seems possible that there may be some degree of bias on d3hoops.com towards teams and players from the West, Mid-West, and to a lesser degree the Mid-Atlantic regions, the CCIW and WIAC, and the states of Wisconsin, Illinois or Pennsylvania.

If this is the case, then that bias would impact the rankings, and highly-ranked teams from those regions might not perform as well as the rankings would predict against less-highly-ranked schools from other regions. This seems to be the phenomen that has been observed when the front page talks about teams from the toughest bracket not dominating the final four representatives from other brackets. Maybe we shouldn't be so surprised if Middlebury (or another non-bottom-left-of-the-bracket team) ends up winning a title the way Va Wes, Amherst and Williams have done in recent history.