2012 Division III NCAA Tournament

[T990]

ESPN coverage of the D3 tournament:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=darcy/090305

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/index

There's a rumor that ESPN will do a TV piece on MIT basketball tonight on Sportscenter (?).  [I don't know the details.]

[Hugenerd]

ESPN coverage of the D3 tournament:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=darcy/090305

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/index

There's a rumor that ESPN will do a TV piece on MIT basketball tonight on Sportscenter (?).  [I don't know the details.]

I hear the same rumor.

[pabegg]

How abotu we quantify the Bracket of Death.

I took the 60 tournament participants along with my power rankings (based on D3 results only), and ran the round-by-round chances of each team.

This list is ranked by best chance of a NCAA title to worst chance (Husson shows 0, which is rounding of 1 in 1.5 million!).

For example, St. Thomas has a 94+% chance of getting out of their opener, a 63% chance of surviving the weekend, a 25% chance of getting to Salem, and a 15% chance of winning it all.

Bottom line, the Bracket of Death has at 50.5% chance of winning the Walnut and Bronze, better than the other three quadrants combined.



St. Thomas                    0.9479 0.6311 0.3976 0.2534 0.2016 0.1548
Puget Sound                   1.0000 0.7458 0.3568 0.2015 0.1487 0.1051
Wheaton (Ill.)                0.9414 0.6173 0.3705 0.1815 0.1333 0.0938
Richard Stockton              0.9327 0.6779 0.4559 0.2826 0.1753 0.0774
Ithaca                        1.0000 0.6822 0.4208 0.2976 0.1712 0.0737
Middlebury                    1.0000 0.6989 0.4501 0.2480 0.1442 0.0581
Washington U.                 0.7911 0.4638 0.2357 0.1052 0.0734 0.0488
UW-Stevens Point              0.8092 0.3332 0.1731 0.0908 0.0639 0.0429
Mass-Dartmouth                0.7047 0.4653 0.2419 0.1630 0.0877 0.0346
Elms                          0.8467 0.5815 0.2800 0.1478 0.0781 0.0276
John Carroll                  0.7999 0.5057 0.2965 0.1653 0.0527 0.0272
Capital                       0.8031 0.5336 0.2945 0.1646 0.0519 0.0267
UW-Platteville                0.7920 0.3383 0.1690 0.0659 0.0424 0.0259
Texas-Dallas                  1.0000 0.5740 0.3185 0.1681 0.0485 0.0234
UW-Whitewater                 0.5552 0.2785 0.1246 0.0482 0.0309 0.0188
Franklin and Marshall         0.7481 0.4527 0.2643 0.1107 0.0471 0.0138
Trinity (Texas)               0.7356 0.3587 0.1948 0.1005 0.0279 0.0132
Rhode Island College          0.6480 0.3654 0.1685 0.0770 0.0375 0.0119
Centre                        0.6685 0.3531 0.1809 0.0914 0.0250 0.0116
Carnegie Mellon               0.8242 0.3979 0.2015 0.0962 0.0241 0.0106
Worcester Polytech            0.8754 0.3855 0.1541 0.0858 0.0359 0.0103
Transylvania                  0.5436 0.2978 0.1501 0.0746 0.0199 0.0091
Elmhurst                      0.4448 0.1998 0.0789 0.0265 0.0156 0.0087
SUNY-Farmingdale              0.5998 0.3169 0.1387 0.0602 0.0279 0.0083
Salem State                   0.6133 0.3634 0.1959 0.0765 0.0304 0.0082
St. Joseph's (L.I.)           0.5595 0.1909 0.0877 0.0488 0.0204 0.0058
Widener                       0.6987 0.3563 0.1802 0.0647 0.0236 0.0057
Whitworth                     0.6665 0.1982 0.0564 0.0203 0.0110 0.0056
Amherst                       0.6304 0.2196 0.1078 0.0466 0.0202 0.0055
Bridgewater State             0.6574 0.2283 0.1124 0.0451 0.0194 0.0052
Guilford                      0.4564 0.2305 0.1065 0.0484 0.0112 0.0047
Brandeis                      0.5882 0.2912 0.1500 0.0529 0.0190 0.0045
Wooster                       0.5679 0.2426 0.1005 0.0423 0.0086 0.0033
DeSales                       0.4405 0.1269 0.0511 0.0254 0.0092 0.0022
St. Lawrence                  0.5463 0.2139 0.0691 0.0250 0.0091 0.0020
University of New England     0.4002 0.1719 0.0591 0.0202 0.0074 0.0016
Baruch                        0.2953 0.1364 0.0433 0.0203 0.0068 0.0015
Rochester Tech                0.3867 0.1863 0.0796 0.0229 0.0067 0.0013
MIT                           0.3520 0.1459 0.0468 0.0149 0.0051 0.0010
Scranton                      0.4118 0.1691 0.0723 0.0200 0.0056 0.0010
Gettysburg                    0.4321 0.1577 0.0552 0.0197 0.0031 0.0010
Brooklyn                      0.4537 0.1591 0.0452 0.0145 0.0047 0.0009
Averett                       0.3315 0.1186 0.0413 0.0140 0.0021 0.0006
Gwynedd-Mercy                 0.3696 0.0896 0.0328 0.0102 0.0032 0.0006
Lawrence                      0.2089 0.0579 0.0129 0.0023 0.0009 0.0003
St. Joseph's (Maine)          0.3426 0.0728 0.0245 0.0064 0.0018 0.0003
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps        0.3335 0.0560 0.0091 0.0020 0.0007 0.0003
Cornell                       0.1908 0.0286 0.0062 0.0013 0.0005 0.0002
Maryville (Tenn.)             0.2644 0.0673 0.0208 0.0058 0.0007 0.0002
Wesley                        0.2519 0.0870 0.0285 0.0056 0.0011 0.0001
Virginia Wesleyan             0.3013 0.0940 0.0292 0.0056 0.0011 0.0001
Hope                          0.2080 0.0361 0.0077 0.0011 0.0004 0.0001
Medaille                      0.2001 0.0649 0.0175 0.0043 0.0004 0.0001
Thomas More                   0.1969 0.0660 0.0158 0.0039 0.0004 0.0001
SUNYIT                        0.1533 0.0455 0.0071 0.0012 0.0002 0.0000
Brockport State               0.1758 0.0315 0.0057 0.0010 0.0001 0.0000
Aurora                        0.0521 0.0071 0.0008 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000
Rensselaer                    0.0673 0.0129 0.0021 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000
Fontbonne                     0.0586 0.0082 0.0008 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000
Husson                        0.1246 0.0128 0.0011 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000

[Gregory Sager]

The tourney history of this year's 60 participants:

Newbies:
Husson
MIT
Medaille
New England
St. Joseph's (NY)
SUNYIT
Thomas More
Wesley

Been There, Done That:

school	apps	1st app	E8s	F4s	'chips	W-L	(%)
Brandeis	6	1975	3	0	0	8-5	(.615)
Brockport State	9	1975	3	1	0	13-8	(.619)
Franklin & Marshall	20	1975	7	4	0	32-23	(.582)
RPI	5	1975	0	0	0	3-5	(.375)
Rhode Island C.	6	1975	2	0	0	6-7	(.462)
St. Lawrence	11	1975	1	0	0	8-12	(.400)
Scranton	22	1975	5	4	2	33-21	(.611)
Transylvania	7	1975	1	0	0	7-6	(.538)
Widener	17	1975	2	2	0	20-18	(.526)
Cornell	3	1976	0	0	0	0-3	(.000)
Mass-Dartmouth	14	1976	2	1	0	14-14	(.500)
Rochester Tech	7	1976	0	0	0	2-7	(.222)
Carnegie Mellon	3	1977	0	0	0	0-3	(.000)
Ithaca	7	1977	0	0	0	2-9	(.182)
Virginia Wesleyan	9	1978	2	2	1	13-9	(.591)
Wooster	18	1978	3	2	0	17-18	(.486)
Centre	12	1979	3	2	0	12-16	(.429)
Salem State	22	1980	1	1	0	21-23	(.477)
Brooklyn	2	1982	1	1	0	4-1	(.800)
Capital	8	1982	1	0	0	6-7	(.462)
Hope	20	1982	4	2	0	25-20	(.556)
WPI	6	1982	1	0	0	4-6	(.400)
Bridgewater State	4	1983	0	0	0	1-3	(.250)
John Carroll	11	1983	3	1	0	18-12	(.600)
UW-Whitewater	15	1983	3	3	2	22-13	(.629)
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	9	1984	0	0	0	3-9	(.250)
Richard Stockton	12	1987	3	1	0	16-13	(.552)
Washington (MO)	14	1987	4	2	1	20-12	(.625)
Averett	4	1990	0	0	0	1-4	(.200)
St. Thomas	10	1990	1	1	0	9-10	(.474)
Maryville (TN)	16	1991	1	0	0	13-15	(.464)
UW-Platteville	10	1991	6	5	4	30-5	(.857)
Elmhurst	3	1992	0	0	0	2-2	(.500)
Amherst	12	1994	6	4	1	23-11	(.676)
Wheaton (IL)	6	1995	1	0	0	5-5	(.500)
DeSales	2	1996	0	0	0	0-1	(.000)
Fontbonne	4	1996	0	0	0	0-3	(.000)
Gettysburg	5	1996	0	0	0	2-4	(.333)
Lawrence	6	1997	1	0	0	5-5	(.500)
UW-Stevens Point	8	1997	4	2	2	18-5	(.783)
Aurora	7	1998	0	0	0	1-6	(.143)
Trinity (TX)	7	1998	1	0	0	4-6	(.400)
Baruch	3	2000	0	0	0	0-2	(.000)
St. Joseph's (ME)	2	2003	0	0	0	0-1	(.000)
Whitworth	4	2003	0	0	0	2-3	(.400)
Gwynedd-Mercy	3	2004	0	0	0	1-2	(.333)
Puget Sound	4	2004	1	0	0	4-3	(.579)
Elms	5	2005	0	0	0	1-4	(.200)
Texas-Dallas	2	2005	0	0	0	0-1	(.000)
Farmingdale State	3	2006	0	0	0	1-2	(.333)
Guilford	3	2007	0	0	0	2-2	(.500)
Middlebury	2	2008	0	0	0	0-1	(.000)

[Hugenerd]

ESPN coverage of the D3 tournament:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=darcy/090305

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/index

There's a rumor that ESPN will do a TV piece on MIT basketball tonight on Sportscenter (?).  [I don't know the details.]

I hear the same rumor.

I now hear it is likely the 6:00 (early) sportscenter that will have it.

[Hugenerd]

ESPN coverage of the D3 tournament:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=darcy/090305

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/index

There's a rumor that ESPN will do a TV piece on MIT basketball tonight on Sportscenter (?).  [I don't know the details.]

I hear the same rumor.

I now hear it is likely the 6:00 (early) sportscenter that will have it.

I now hear MIT may have been bumped to ESPNU.

[Just Bill]

Pat sent out a Tweet that said 5:30 ET on ESPN U which is 15 minutes from now.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Since it's that time of year, there is only one piece of information I keep an eye on regularly.  I have a spreadsheet with all the teams who have won at least one game in the tournament since its inception.

Wittenberg is still tops with 18 years with a win.  F&M has a chance to move to solo #2 (they are currently tied with IWU at 14).

In terms of active streaks, Maryville lost their first game last year, ending what was the record of nine consecutive tournaments with a win.  Amherst, however, tied said record with their first win last year.  They enter this year's tournament with a chance to make it a full decade of NCAA tournament wins.

Amherst  - 9
Va Wesleyan - 4
Hope - 3
Widener - 3

It should be noted that VA Wesleyan plays Widener, so one of them will continue their streak.

There are also five teams with a two year streak (WashU, Centre, Stevens Point, Brandeis, and Rhode Island College).

[sac]

[
Been There, Done That:

school	apps	1st app	E8s	F4s	'chips	W-L	(%)
Hope	20	1982	4	2	0	25-20	(.556)

Hope has been to 3 Final Fours.....1996, 1998, 2008
Hope's record was once 3-11 in the tournament.

but +k anyway, well done.

[Hugenerd]

MIT UPSETS RIC ON THEIR HOME COURT

Bartolotta had an awful game in regulation, but took over in OT.  Going 2-2 from 3 (2-2 from the field overall) and 4-4 from the line, scoring 10.  He finished the game 27 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals.

Billy Johnson played HUGE (before fouling out with 1 minute to go in OT).  He 7-11 from the floor (3-4 from 3), scoring 19 points, adding 11 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 blocks.

Bobby Bailey paced RIC with 16 points.

[Greek Tragedy]

In the Bracket of Death:  Regarding the poll

#4 Stevens Point at #1 St. Thomas
#5 Platteville at #3 Wheaton
#8 Whitewater vs. #2 Washington U. at Elmhurst

[LogShow]

In the Bracket of Death:  Regarding the poll

#4 Stevens Point at #1 St. Thomas
#5 Platteville at #3 Wheaton
#8 Whitewater vs. #2 Washington U. at Elmhurst

Puget Sound makes their bracket of death debut tonight against Whitworth...it's only their 4 time they played, this year. lol.  Good Luck UPS!

[Greek Tragedy]

Puget Sound's record v Whitworth

Jan. 16  8:00 PM  at Whitworth * •  W, 89-77 

Feb. 13  8:00 PM  Whitworth * •  W, 81-71 

Feb. 28  7:00 PM  Whitworth •  L, 90-80 OT 

Should be a battle.

[LogShow]

Puget Sound's record v Whitworth

Jan. 16  8:00 PM  at Whitworth * •  W, 89-77 

Feb. 13  8:00 PM  Whitworth * •  W, 81-71 

Feb. 28  7:00 PM  Whitworth •  L, 90-80 OT 

Should be a battle.

It sure will be.  Hoping to get another shot at Point...for old times sake, lol.  Point has a tough battle first too

[LogShow]

Sager,

I was looking at your posting of tourney records...UW-Platteville's tournament record is just flat out amazing.