FB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[badgerwarhawk]

[Getting rid of a million long quotes for a one sentence reply...]

Because while giving credit, the tone of the post still read as though JCU didn't beat Mount as much as Mount beat themselves, which is what I hear every few years when Mount loses a game.

Look on the bright side Troph.  At least you don't have to hear it very often. 

[emma17]

Welcome OAC posters, glad to have your input here. 

JCU held Mt to 13% and Wesley to 19% on 3rd down conversions. 
JCU had 16 sacks vs Mt and Wesley. 
JCU held Mt to 50% completions and Wesley even lower.
JCU held Mt to 2.6 yds per carry and Wesley to 1.8 yds per carry.

These stats are pretty darn impressive for JCU.  I reckon it's time to break out the ol serious-playoff-game-only sweatshirt.  It's seen many of the greatest UWW games ever played.
   

[bluestreak66]

Welcome OAC posters, glad to have your input here. 

JCU held Mt to 13% and Wesley to 19% on 3rd down conversions. 
JCU had 16 sacks vs Mt and Wesley. 
JCU held Mt to 50% completions and Wesley even lower.
JCU held Mt to 2.6 yds per carry and Wesley to 1.8 yds per carry.

These stats are pretty darn impressive for JCU.  I reckon it's time to break out the ol serious-playoff-game-only sweatshirt.  It's seen many of the greatest UWW games ever played.

And it would be an honor for it to see this game! 

[bleedpurple]

Is this the week that JCU's bubble bursts? Don't quite know what to think about them.

Wesley's OC remarked that they were the best defense they have seen all season, although Im not sure that says too much considering Wesley's opponents. Their d-line is very good and was able to expose Wesley's weaker o-line for 9 sacks. They also sacked Mount 7 times. JCU's offense looked very pedestrian vs. Wesley's defense, which has drawn criticism over the past few years. Their QB Moeglin threw 4 INTs total. One bounced off a receivers hands, he underthrew receivers that were otherwise open for the 2nd and 3rd and threw another into coverage for the 4th. So there is some inexperience there. Wesley was also able to hold his favorite target (Marshall Howell) to 3 catches for 36 yards. As I was watching the game Saturday, I figured that whichever team came out on top would have their hands full going to UWW. Had Wesley won, I would have been concerned for more of the defense vs the WW offense, but for JCU it is the opposite, the concern will be JCU's offense vs the UWW defense.

What he said, and I will add that if you throw 4 ints against Wesley that is not good considering I think they only had 6 or so the entire season.

Interesting thoughts. My numbers see it in the opposite direction. For example:

I don't know that JCU has a bubble to burst. They very likely might be the best defense, as they're playing right now, that UWW has seen all season. Right now, their national ranks are #2 in opponent-adjusted scoring margin (3.87 ppg, UW-O is #1 with 1.52 ppg), #1 in defensive efficiency (2.67 yards/play), and #2 in adjusted net yards/play (1.38 ANY/play; which accounts for turnovers and touchdowns allowed). If there was a "bubble," I would expect it to show up in one of these metrics, but they're not allowing points, they're forcing turnovers, they're efficient, and they aren't allowing big plays.

The offense though... is merely above average, barely cracking the Top 50 in ANY/P, and not even in the Top 100 in passing efficiency.

I love and am fascinated by mathematical models. As a geek who used to (and occasionally still does) play Strat-o-Matic football, basketball, and baseball (definitely getting the 2016 cards. Go Cubs!), I urge you to come out with a D-III football strategy game! The tournaments could keep us occupied in the off season!

But back to the field of play and the ability to predict an outcome. I have a lot of confidence that playing the WIAC schedule plus Morningside has prepared UW-W well for John Carroll's defense. But aside from that,  I have a few questions for you. First, what is the best offensive line John Carroll has faced this year? How does John Carroll fare when their d-line doesn't dominate the line of scrimmage? Also, given the statistical date available to correlate turnover margin in a game with result, how does the model weigh in the relative likelihood of one team winning the turnover battle?

[KitchenSink]

Looking at the two-deeps for Saturday, it says that JC plays a 3-4, and their two ILB's are 190 and 195 (DL is 245-230-240).  One would think that a big offensive line could make some inside running work, but it certainly can't be that simple, can it?  JC has been stopping teams all year....

In the Wesley game, the box score says W rushed 45 times, 82 yards.  But included in those numbers was 9 sacks for 48 yards, so true rushing total was 36 for 130.  That looks like marginal success, nowhere near enough to overcome the lack of ability to complete passes (13-30, 88 yards).

My thought - Pound the Rock.

[Desertraider]

BP - I think the best answer for questions 1 and 2 is the UWO game. Really jcu has faced 2 teams in regular season (UWO and Mount). Mount's oline is decent right now and was the best they saw in conference, but not dominant. jcu controlled the LOS, limited the run and created pressure. UWOs oline is probably the better of the 2 teams and jcu did not fare well. I would put Wesley in this but I don't know enough about this Wesley team. I know they gave up 9 sacks (ahem! excuse me jcu created 9 sacks). I don't know if it was poor line play or the jcu line being dominant (depends on who you are rooting for I guess).

The thing jcu will struggle with on the defensive side of the ball is UWWs athleticism and size - and not sure of an algorithm to quantify these factors. I don't think jcu has seen that combination so far. The Warhawk oline is all 6'2-6'5 and hovers in that 290-315 range. Plus they are athletic and experienced. The Warhawk TEs are also good and big - block well and can get downfield when needed. I think the first 2 qtrs will be close but see UWW just wearing them down and pulling away.

[Desertraider]

Looking at the two-deeps for Saturday, it says that JC plays a 3-4, and their two ILB's are 190 and 195 (DL is 245-230-240).  One would think that a big offensive line could make some inside running work, but it certainly can't be that simple, can it?  JC has been stopping teams all year....

In the Wesley game, the box score says W rushed 45 times, 82 yards.  But included in those numbers was 9 sacks for 48 yards, so true rushing total was 36 for 130.  That looks like marginal success, nowhere near enough to overcome the lack of ability to complete passes (13-30, 88 yards).

My thought - Pound the Rock.

The LBs are good and so is the Dline. I saw the jcu line size and thought the same thing. However Mount doesn't really run inisde with Mitchell and Morris (outside, edge type guys that lack size). The jcu D had the quicks to get to the edge and stop long runs from happening. But like I said in previous post - UWW line is really big. I don't know that jcu has had a team with the right pieces (size and ability) try to run between the tackles on them. The OAC just isn't a good barometer right now. None of the teams outside of Mount really have anything to offer a comparison. It's sort of like UWO, 8 weeks of practice, Mount game. To small of a body of work to offer more.

[HansenRatings]

not sure of an algorithm to quantify these factors.

Agreed. That's a bit beyond the scope of what box-score stats can tell you, and I haven't watched JCU play other than the end of their game last week. If I'm streaming regular-season games, it's pretty much only Wartburg or Platteville.

[SaintsFAN]

Looking at the two-deeps for Saturday, it says that JC plays a 3-4, and their two ILB's are 190 and 195 (DL is 245-230-240).  One would think that a big offensive line could make some inside running work, but it certainly can't be that simple, can it?  JC has been stopping teams all year....

In the Wesley game, the box score says W rushed 45 times, 82 yards.  But included in those numbers was 9 sacks for 48 yards, so true rushing total was 36 for 130.  That looks like marginal success, nowhere near enough to overcome the lack of ability to complete passes (13-30, 88 yards).

My thought - Pound the Rock.

Sounds like there may be more to it:

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2016/john-carroll-defensive-line

[emma17]

Looking at the two-deeps for Saturday, it says that JC plays a 3-4, and their two ILB's are 190 and 195 (DL is 245-230-240).  One would think that a big offensive line could make some inside running work, but it certainly can't be that simple, can it?  JC has been stopping teams all year....

In the Wesley game, the box score says W rushed 45 times, 82 yards.  But included in those numbers was 9 sacks for 48 yards, so true rushing total was 36 for 130.  That looks like marginal success, nowhere near enough to overcome the lack of ability to complete passes (13-30, 88 yards).

My thought - Pound the Rock.

Sounds like there may be more to it:

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2016/john-carroll-defensive-line

I'm sure there are many in the WIAC that would say the UWO O-Line is at least equal to the UWW O-Line.  UWO demonstrated their strength last week against St. John's. 
As it was the first game, I doubt that JCU had the 11 man D-Line rotation thing worked out yet.  I imagine they are performing more efficiently now. 
They've got great video to practice from.

By the way, I like the name of running back Ro Golphin- it's got a little Scooby Doo ring to it.
 

[Desertraider]

Looking at the two-deeps for Saturday, it says that JC plays a 3-4, and their two ILB's are 190 and 195 (DL is 245-230-240).  One would think that a big offensive line could make some inside running work, but it certainly can't be that simple, can it?  JC has been stopping teams all year....

In the Wesley game, the box score says W rushed 45 times, 82 yards.  But included in those numbers was 9 sacks for 48 yards, so true rushing total was 36 for 130.  That looks like marginal success, nowhere near enough to overcome the lack of ability to complete passes (13-30, 88 yards).

My thought - Pound the Rock.

Sounds like there may be more to it:

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2016/john-carroll-defensive-line

I'm sure there are many in the WIAC that would say the UWO O-Line is at least equal to the UWW O-Line.  UWO demonstrated their strength last week against St. John's. 
As it was the first game, I doubt that JCU had the 11 man D-Line rotation thing worked out yet.  I imagine they are performing more efficiently now. 
They've got great video to practice from.

By the way, I like the name of running back Ro Golphin- it's got a little Scooby Doo ring to it.

Ruh-Ro Raggy!

Golphin is a good back but he doesn't really impress me (I know - I am sure he has lost sleep over that!). I mean he will get you 2 or 3 yds each on like 16 carries.....then break one for 80 (or I think I saw one for 90+). His stats look good but its not like Beaver or Kmic where they were literally hitting for 8-10 every touch and breaking several a game for 20+.

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

Looking at the two-deeps for Saturday, it says that JC plays a 3-4, and their two ILB's are 190 and 195 (DL is 245-230-240).  One would think that a big offensive line could make some inside running work, but it certainly can't be that simple, can it?  JC has been stopping teams all year....

In the Wesley game, the box score says W rushed 45 times, 82 yards.  But included in those numbers was 9 sacks for 48 yards, so true rushing total was 36 for 130.  That looks like marginal success, nowhere near enough to overcome the lack of ability to complete passes (13-30, 88 yards).

My thought - Pound the Rock.

#38 Mason McKendrick is a stud ILB for JCU.  UWW Game notes have him listed at 6' 1" 195, but JCU Roster on their website has him listed as 6' 4" 220 (which is probably more accurate after seeing him play live vs UMU).  He is quick (probably a 4.6 guy) for his size and they move him around.  Good in coverage as well.

[bleedpurple]

Thanks for all the info on John Carroll! It will be fun to see a new opponent we've never faced. 

UW-W fans, I know we've rightly moved past last Saturday to next week, but I forgot to post this link:

"Round Two Notes and Observations: Wittenberg at UW-W"

www.warhawkfootball.com

[emma17]

ILB is 6'4", 220 and runs a 4.6?  Cheater.

By the way, I wonder if Retagent is still pondering whether the WIAC is down this year.

[retagent]

I'm right here!

I never really "wondered." I was just putting forward the idea that it is difficult to compare when there is so little data available for the comparison. I remember about 11 years ago when some people were using past performance as a metric upon which to judge present strength. The WIAC posters (UWW fans specifically) pooh poohed that idea, saying that what you did in the past has little or no relevance to the present.

There was never any doubt in my mind that the WIAC is a strong conference in relation to all others in D III. And because of their inherent advantages, will probably always be so. But when comparing year to year, there are, in all likelihood, some variances in that relative strength. I saw the UWW/Morningside game, and while seeing that UWW was capable of defeating a team believed to be quite good, they didn't seem to have the precision I saw in recent years (I know it was the second game of the season), so I was withholding my assessment of just how good they were. Even in later games, they've struggled against historically weaker foes, and even the UWW posters were concerned.

The game I saw last week was the first time that I was impressed by all facets of their game. They still have a couple hurdles, but I would not be surprised to see them in Salem. Of course I would not be surprised if STU, UWO, UMHB, or UMU makes it either.