FB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[WW]

Hypothetical question: Given the expectation that the current teams leading their leagues do not falter, best guess for first round matchups? St. Norbert gets a trip to the Perk? They have a fight with Macalester this weekend correct?

As a Warhawk fan I look forward to the dance and settle these questions on the field. Is UWW, UWW again, or are they just purty danged good?

On the podcast, I believe Pat mentioned the possibility of Eureka as a first round opponent.

Pat would have better big-picture insight than I. But I'm hypothesizing that Eureka would be fodder for the CCIW champ, also from the North region.

[hazzben]

Hypothetical question: Given the expectation that the current teams leading their leagues do not falter, best guess for first round matchups? St. Norbert gets a trip to the Perk? They have a fight with Macalester this weekend correct?

As a Warhawk fan I look forward to the dance and settle these questions on the field. Is UWW, UWW again, or are they just purty danged good?

On the podcast, I believe Pat mentioned the possibility of Eureka as a first round opponent.

Pat would have better big-picture insight than I. But I'm hypothesizing that Eureka would be fodder for the CCIW champ, also from the North region.

There's a lot to figure out yet about Pool B and C before we can dive too deep into bracket construction. But historically it seems like they've kept the Rd 1 cannon fodder close to hope for the #1 seeds. See St. Scholastica in years past.

[hazzben]

Assuming wins for SJU and UWW, we are looking at pretty similar resumes. In the past the national committee has shown a willingness to tweak regional rankings when they get in front of them.

Wondering out loud, but could UWW's proximity to most/more 'North Region' teams hurt them when it comes to a 1 seed? My assumption is that SJU and UWW both stay in the 'West' as the national 4 and 5 seeds in some order. But is it crazy to imagine them giving SJU the 1 in the 'West' and then sending UWW 'North' as they construct the bracket, simply given that UWW gives them a lot more driveable scenarios in the first several rds than SJU does?

It's an odd year, you've got another strong and legit 1 seed candidate in the East. So no easy solution to sending Mount East and an unbeaten WIAC champ North. At the same time, the West may not be quite as deep as usual (years when Linfield, 2 MIAC, and 2 WIAC, and a stronger than usual ARC champ were all West). But you've also got two very legit 1 seed resumes in the same region.

My gut says UWW gets the 1 and SJU the 2, barring a very meh win for UWW in week 10 and a really really impressive undressing of TM by SJU. At which point, I think the West ends up about as stacked as usual. Not because there's quite as much strength present this year, but because they simply don't ship as many teams out. End result, still a really tough road to sled through this region.

UWW
SJU
Whitworth
Bethel/UST
Monmouth

That's a pretty formidable top quadrant if no one gets moved. And I kinda like it 

[emma17]

Interesting idea about UWW traveling easier. Within the realm I'd imagine.

I'd propose a deal. St. John's at 1- with the St. T/Bethel winner in their pod.

[jamtod]

Interesting idea about UWW traveling easier. Within the realm I'd imagine.

I'd propose a deal. St. John's at 1- with the St. T/Bethel winner in their pod.

I'm really torn on whether I'd prefer this over getting sent to Brockport.
Before the GAC game I would have felt ok about our chances in an SJU rematch. After? I'm afraid Perra and our offense might be broken.

[WW]

Assuming wins for SJU and UWW, we are looking at pretty similar resumes. In the past the national committee has shown a willingness to tweak regional rankings when they get in front of them.

Wondering out loud, but could UWW's proximity to most/more 'North Region' teams hurt them when it comes to a 1 seed? My assumption is that SJU and UWW both stay in the 'West' as the national 4 and 5 seeds in some order. But is it crazy to imagine them giving SJU the 1 in the 'West' and then sending UWW 'North' as they construct the bracket, simply given that UWW gives them a lot more driveable scenarios in the first several rds than SJU does?

It's an odd year, you've got another strong and legit 1 seed candidate in the East. So no easy solution to sending Mount East and an unbeaten WIAC champ North. At the same time, the West may not be quite as deep as usual (years when Linfield, 2 MIAC, and 2 WIAC, and a stronger than usual ARC champ were all West). But you've also got two very legit 1 seed resumes in the same region.

My gut says UWW gets the 1 and SJU the 2, barring a very meh win for UWW in week 10 and a really really impressive undressing of TM by SJU. At which point, I think the West ends up about as stacked as usual. Not because there's quite as much strength present this year, but because they simply don't ship as many teams out. End result, still a really tough road to sled through this region.

UWW
SJU
Whitworth
Bethel/UST
Monmouth

That's a pretty formidable top quadrant if no one gets moved. And I kinda like it 

I think UWW gets the 1 too, but their SOS differences are gonna be razor skinny presuming both they and SJU win Saturday, given that TM did beat UWP earlier this season.

If Brockport weren't a 9-0 bully out east I'd see bumping them for Mount. But they're a 9-0 bully. And they're not gonna send anybody to the Pacific coast until they have to, if they have to. So yeah, UWW or SJU on top, and a few who could do some damage at 3-5 in the West. That region gonna be a beast.

[OzJohnnie]

In all seriousness, most of the time our discussions on here are the message board equivalent of PhD level discourse.

[Pat Coleman]

Hypothetical question: Given the expectation that the current teams leading their leagues do not falter, best guess for first round matchups? St. Norbert gets a trip to the Perk? They have a fight with Macalester this weekend correct?

As a Warhawk fan I look forward to the dance and settle these questions on the field. Is UWW, UWW again, or are they just purty danged good?

On the podcast, I believe Pat mentioned the possibility of Eureka as a first round opponent.

Pat would have better big-picture insight than I. But I'm hypothesizing that Eureka would be fodder for the CCIW champ, also from the North region.

With one loss, Eureka is almost certain to be headed to play a No. 1 seed somewhere. They're more than 500 miles from St. John's and from Mount Union.

[bleedpurple]

Intrigued by the level of UW-W's dominance in the WIAC this year, I went back and checked the average margins of victory for WIAC champions since the UW-W Stagg Bowl run began in 2005. I thought I would share what I found (AMV= Average Margin of Victory in WIAC games. ADV is how far that team advanced in the playoffs) Sorry about the sloppy columns. I have a hard time getting them right on here.

Year    Champion     AMV        ADV
2018         UWW        34.50              ? 
2017        UW-0         21.28       Semi-finals
2016         UWW         15.42        Quarterfinals
2015      UW-0         29.28             Quarterfinals
2014     UWW           25.57       National Champions
2013     UWW           28.14       National Champioins
2012      UW-0       21.86       Semi-Finals
2011      UWW           17.14   National Champion
2010      UWW          30.43        National Champion
2009      UWW           30.57   National Champion
2008      UWW         26.43        National Runner-up
2007      UWW           17.00   National Champion
2006      UWW           30.00   National Runner-up
2005      UWW           23.43   National Runner-up

Two Runner-ups who advanced to the semi-finals or Stagg Bowl:

2016      UW-0   19.29   National Runner-up
2015       UWW    25.86   Semi-finals

[emma17]

Interesting Bleed.
To illustrate the drop-off in the 2nd tier WIAC, here are the combined records of the 2nd and 3rd place teams:
2018: 11-7 (UWL and UWO)
2017: 15-5
2016: 21-5
2015: 20-4
2013: 13-7
2012: 18-4
2011: 14-6
2010: 13-7
2009: 15-5
2008: 15-6
2007: 16-6

[WRMUalum13]

Intrigued by the level of UW-W's dominance in the WIAC this year, I went back and checked the average margins of victory for WIAC champions since the UW-W Stagg Bowl run began in 2005. I thought I would share what I found (AMV= Average Margin of Victory in WIAC games. ADV is how far that team advanced in the playoffs) Sorry about the sloppy columns. I have a hard time getting them right on here.

Year    Champion     AMV        ADV
2018         UWW        34.50              ? 
2017        UW-0         21.28       Semi-finals
2016         UWW         15.42        Quarterfinals
2015      UW-0         29.28             Quarterfinals
2014     UWW           25.57       National Champions
2013     UWW           28.14       National Champioins
2012      UW-0       21.86       Semi-Finals
2011      UWW           17.14   National Champion
2010      UWW          30.43        National Champion
2009      UWW           30.57   National Champion
2008      UWW         26.43        National Runner-up
2007      UWW           17.00   National Champion
2006      UWW           30.00   National Runner-up
2005      UWW           23.43   National Runner-up

Two Runner-ups who advanced to the semi-finals or Stagg Bowl:

2016      UW-0   19.29   National Runner-up
2015       UWW    25.86   Semi-finals

Doesn't seem to be a correlation between AMV and playoff success, I wonder if AMV correlates with conference strength year to year.

[bleedpurple]

Interesting Bleed.
To illustrate the drop-off in the 2nd tier WIAC, here are the combined records of the 2nd and 3rd place teams:
2018: 11-7 (UWL and UWO)
2017: 15-5
2016: 21-5
2015: 20-4
2013: 13-7
2012: 18-4
2011: 14-6
2010: 13-7
2009: 15-5
2008: 15-6
2007: 16-6

Between some teams improving and other teams regressing, I would have no idea how to rank teams 2-8 in terms of how they are playing right now. It seems like the 2nd tier has virtually disappeared. Well, I guess La Crosse is a clear second at this moment. I keep forgetting about them. 

[WW]

Hypothetical question: Given the expectation that the current teams leading their leagues do not falter, best guess for first round matchups? St. Norbert gets a trip to the Perk? They have a fight with Macalester this weekend correct?

As a Warhawk fan I look forward to the dance and settle these questions on the field. Is UWW, UWW again, or are they just purty danged good?

On the podcast, I believe Pat mentioned the possibility of Eureka as a first round opponent.

Pat would have better big-picture insight than I. But I'm hypothesizing that Eureka would be fodder for the CCIW champ, also from the North region.

With one loss, Eureka is almost certain to be headed to play a No. 1 seed somewhere. They're more than 500 miles from St. John's and from Mount Union.

I defer to your wisdom and experience, but seems to me that would potentially untidy a lot of the West bracket just to ensure a 1 seed gets a maximus patsy, when other (arguably less patsy) doormats would be available.

[bleedpurple]

Intrigued by the level of UW-W's dominance in the WIAC this year, I went back and checked the average margins of victory for WIAC champions since the UW-W Stagg Bowl run began in 2005. I thought I would share what I found (AMV= Average Margin of Victory in WIAC games. ADV is how far that team advanced in the playoffs) Sorry about the sloppy columns. I have a hard time getting them right on here.

Year    Champion     AMV        ADV
2018         UWW        34.50              ? 
2017        UW-0         21.28       Semi-finals
2016         UWW         15.42        Quarterfinals
2015      UW-0         29.28             Quarterfinals
2014     UWW           25.57       National Champions
2013     UWW           28.14       National Champioins
2012      UW-0       21.86       Semi-Finals
2011      UWW           17.14   National Champion
2010      UWW          30.43        National Champion
2009      UWW           30.57   National Champion
2008      UWW         26.43        National Runner-up
2007      UWW           17.00   National Champion
2006      UWW           30.00   National Runner-up
2005      UWW           23.43   National Runner-up

Two Runner-ups who advanced to the semi-finals or Stagg Bowl:

2016      UW-0   19.29   National Runner-up
2015       UWW    25.86   Semi-finals

Doesn't seem to be a correlation between AMV and playoff success, I wonder if AMV correlates with conference strength year to year.

I don't know if anything hard and fast can be concluded. But with some teams better than they have been and some teams down, UW-W has ripped through the WIAC like no one we have seen for a long, long time. Time will tell as to how this translates to success in the playoffs.

[Pat Coleman]

Hypothetical question: Given the expectation that the current teams leading their leagues do not falter, best guess for first round matchups? St. Norbert gets a trip to the Perk? They have a fight with Macalester this weekend correct?

As a Warhawk fan I look forward to the dance and settle these questions on the field. Is UWW, UWW again, or are they just purty danged good?

On the podcast, I believe Pat mentioned the possibility of Eureka as a first round opponent.

Pat would have better big-picture insight than I. But I'm hypothesizing that Eureka would be fodder for the CCIW champ, also from the North region.

With one loss, Eureka is almost certain to be headed to play a No. 1 seed somewhere. They're more than 500 miles from St. John's and from Mount Union.

I defer to your wisdom and experience, but seems to me that would potentially untidy a lot of the West bracket just to ensure a 1 seed gets a maximus patsy, when other (arguably less patsy) doormats would be available.

The brackets aren't particularly tidy anymore anyway. Last year Trine played Monmouth, Franklin played Wartburg and North Central played St. John's, and all of those were first-round games between North Region and West Region teams.