FB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[hazzben]

The two likely teams at this point, based on current NPI rankings are UWP and UWO. Those two probably also have the easiest path in terms of schedule (which isn't very easy).

But NPI is a very limited metric. I'd be more interested in how Logan ranks them. Maybe the same, but that's where I go for an idea of how teams stack up.

[BigMark]

Not a great weekend slate of games. Here is how I see them going.

UWO vs UWEC- UWO is much improved. I thought when they lost their QB last year they would be a struggle to get anything going. I think coach Peter should be coach of the year in the league. Very impressed by what they have done. UWEC is still 2 to 3 years away from having a chance. I see this one 42-10

UWP vs UWSP- Trap game for UWP. They have just went through the grind of the WIAC play. I could see them sleep walk through the first half of this game. UWP wins it 38-14

UWRF vs UWW- Game of the week. Really interested to see if UWW packs it in the year or if they want to keep fighting for coach Jace. UWRF has been impressive without their QB that is for sure. I think UWW keeps their playoff hopes alive 24-17

UWL vs UWS- I am not sure what to make of this game. Stout has been a surprising team all year to this point. When does the magic run out or are the devils really this good? I think this is where rubber meets the road and the eagles win in a get right game 42-24

Curious what everyone else thinks about this week and what game will you be watching?

[badgerwarhawk]

Imo, as good as the WIAC is from a parity perspective, I don't see any of the teams as championship level. If UWP and UWO win out, I believe UWO wins the conference and UWP would be in great position for pool C.

Both Oshkosh and Platteville have Point and Eau Claire remaining on their schedules.  The difference is Platteville gets Stout and Oshkosh plays River Falls in their season finales.  I'm thinking that gives the Titans the edge.

I'm in total agreement with you on the other point you've made.  No one from our league will be playing in the Stagg Bowl.  That being said I would love to be proven wrong, but I've watched an awful lot of WIAC games this year and I just don't see it. 

[ziggy]

The two likely teams at this point, based on current NPI rankings are UWP and UWO. Those two probably also have the easiest path in terms of schedule (which isn't very easy).

Logan's season simulation is now updated to include last weekend's results. Here are what he has for playoff odds.
UWP 98.6%
UWO 75.4%
UWRF 57%
UWL 37.7%
UWS 5.4%
UWW 1.7%

This also suggest to me that the playoff field is more likely to include three WIAC teams than two.

[hazzben]

The two likely teams at this point, based on current NPI rankings are UWP and UWO. Those two probably also have the easiest path in terms of schedule (which isn't very easy).

Logan's season simulation is now updated to include last weekend's results. Here are what he has for playoff odds.
UWP 98.6%
UWO 75.4%
UWRF 57%
UWL 37.7%
UWW 1.7%

This also suggest to me that the playoff field is more likely to include three WIAC teams than two.

UWS 5.4% as well.

[ziggy]

Yes, good catch, I added Stout in as an edit above. Worth noting that Stout is the only WIAC that Logan gives playoff odds to but they are entirely via Pool A.

[emma17]

The two likely teams at this point, based on current NPI rankings are UWP and UWO. Those two probably also have the easiest path in terms of schedule (which isn't very easy).

Logan's season simulation is now updated to include last weekend's results. Here are what he has for playoff odds.
UWP 98.6%
UWO 75.4%
UWRF 57%
UWL 37.7%
UWS 5.4%
UWW 1.7%

This also suggest to me that the playoff field is more likely to include three WIAC teams than two.

I assume UWP's chances are so high as they are pool A and pool C strong.
It seems the best chance for three teams is UWO pool A, UWP pool C and maybe UWL pool C? Tough break for UWL w two non D3 schools on the schedule.

[Pat Coleman]

Also because they finish with Stevens Point, Eau Claire and Stout, so they have a greater chance of winning out.

[USee]

The two likely teams at this point, based on current NPI rankings are UWP and UWO. Those two probably also have the easiest path in terms of schedule (which isn't very easy).

But NPI is a very limited metric. I'd be more interested in how Logan ranks them. Maybe the same, but that's where I go for an idea of how teams stack up.

Limited? Its the actual metric used to pick teams. If you mean Logan is generating predictive NPI for his simulated end of season results, that's cool. There aren't really many big differences in Logan's top 25 predictive NPI rankings and the current NCAA rankings. The biggest differences are in the bottom of the Pool C pool and a few likely Pool A winners. Centre, Wash Jeff, Grove City, Claremont MS, Wash Lee and Rochester are the main outliers in Logan's rankings vs the current top 50 NPI ranked teams.

Obviously Logan is also putting % on teams chances for Pool A and C, which is very helpful to see.

[hazzben]

The two likely teams at this point, based on current NPI rankings are UWP and UWO. Those two probably also have the easiest path in terms of schedule (which isn't very easy).

But NPI is a very limited metric. I'd be more interested in how Logan ranks them. Maybe the same, but that's where I go for an idea of how teams stack up.

Limited? Its the actual metric used to pick teams. If you mean Logan is generating predictive NPI for his simulated end of season results, that's cool. There aren't really many big differences in Logan's top 25 predictive NPI rankings and the current NCAA rankings. The biggest differences are in the bottom of the Pool C pool and a few likely Pool A winners. Centre, Wash Jeff, Grove City, Claremont MS, Wash Lee and Rochester are the main outliers in Logan's rankings vs the current top 50 NPI ranked teams.

Obviously Logan is also putting % on teams chances for Pool A and C, which is very helpful to see.

I simply meant NPI is a static view of games played to date, not predictive. Current NPI has no bearing on how teams will perform in the remaining games. As I said, I hadn't looked, Logan's did show that UWP and UWO are the most likely WIAC playoff teams. I realize after the final Saturday of the regular season NPI is all that matters. But Logan's data is helpful in giving us some idea of the likely outcomes between now and then, obviously results on the field may not agree with the predictive modeling.

[fredfalcon]

If RF makes playoffs, Blaha likely to play--unless he chooses medical red shirt option. This is what he told me recently.

[BigMark]

If RF makes playoffs, Blaha likely to play--unless he chooses medical red shirt option. This is what he told me recently.

Freddy, Do you think the Falcons will make the playoffs? You have been a Falcon fan forever I am sure. This is an incredible 3 year run that I am sure everyone is proud of. It would be fun to see a new WIAC get into the dance. With how different they are on offense I think they could make a run.

[colinsteinke]

It will now have been over 10 years since Whitewater's last stagg bowl.

Here's to hoping they get a bowl game now. If they even miss that, then Jace Rindahl has some serious soul searching to do.

Regardless, the question needs to be about the OC. UWW clearly has talent. Play-calling is underutilizing that talent and wasting it. 

[emma17]

It will now have been over 10 years since Whitewater's last stagg bowl.

Here's to hoping they get a bowl game now. If they even miss that, then Jace Rindahl has some serious soul searching to do.

Regardless, the question needs to be about the OC. UWW clearly has talent. Play-calling is underutilizing that talent and wasting it.

I'm right there with you. There are many questions I have about the direction UWW's offense has gone. The last two H/C's have come from the defensive side of the ball. Bullis was very hands off the O, not sure about Jace.

Just focusing on the series that knocked UWW out of the playoffs (most likely).
11 mins left in game and UWW up 10-7. First play- a run of 55 yards to UWP 14 yard line.
1st and 10- another run gets 6 yards.
2nd and 4- another run gets 4 yards.
Now it's 1st and 4 from the 4. Chaos on the field- play clock going to expire- UWW gets hit w illegal substitution.
I'll stop here- Why would a team that's supposed to have the big bad identity of physical football have any sort of confusion as to what personnel, formation or play they'd run at the 4 yard line- especially as you want to run clock? I heard Jace say at the QB club he had decided they'd go for it on fourth if needed.
If this is the case, wtf is going on at the sideline?
1st and 9 nets one yard run.
2nd and 8 incomplete pass.
3rd and 8- absolute chaos again- UWW has to call timeout (a very valuable one as it turns out).
Two more incompletions.
UWP scores three plays later on 92 yarder.

UWW should have been up 10 w 6 mins in game, but not knowing who they are turned it inside out.
Lastly, I realize there's different opinions on this- but I sure miss the QB going under center especially in short yardage. I don't think I've seen a UWW QB under center since the first games of the Bullis era.

[02 Warhawk]

Last two HC were both in-house hires too. Lance was (technically) not.

Not saying anything is wrong with Bullis and Jace, but it seemed to me those two were shoe-ins for the position. Bringing in outside candidates was more of a formality and not really seriously considered. Unfortunately.