FB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[bleedpurple]

Congrats to Stout's Adam Churchill for the WIAC Defensive POW bid and Ross Carey for the D3Football.com POW bid. 

Congrats, too, to the UW Stout team on having a great season so far. Winning back to back road games against Eau Claire and LaCrosse is impressive! I hope they finish strong and make the playoffs!

[02 Warhawk]

Congrats to Stout's Adam Churchill for the WIAC Defensive POW bid and Ross Carey for the D3Football.com POW bid.  

Congrats, too, to the UW Stout team on having a great season so far. Winning back to back road games against Eau Claire and LaCrosse is impressive! I hope they finish strong and make the playoffs!

I wouldn't mind seeing Stout (or UWSP) take on a team like St. John's in the first round of the playoffs, if they make it. I think they can beat them. They had a tough time against UWRF and UWEC, both under .500 in the conference. it would make for a good first-round matchup in the West.

[02 Warhawk]

the West was shaken up a bit

http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/category/regional-rankings/

UWW now #2......and climing. hopefully UWSP or UWStout can sneak in there in the next two weeks.

Linfield now knows what happens to your SOS when you play UPS  

[Barber Greene]

the West was shaken up a bit

http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/category/regional-rankings/

UWW now #2......and climing. hopefully UWSP or UWStout can sneak in there in the next two weeks.

Linfield know nows what happens to your SOS when you play UPS  

That kind of sets up a scenario with Mt. Union in the East, UWW #1 in the North, and St. Johns #1 in the West? (Assuming everyone continues to win of course )

[John Gleich]

I still don't believe that Point's loss to Azusa Pacific will be harmless.  There will be so many two loss teams, I think all are in peril. I think the committee will be looking for reasons to eliminate teams and whether discussed or not, I think Point won't be considered strongly. I think Stout is the WIAC's only hope for a second team and there well may only be one. Heck, Stout is one of the reasons Point HAS a strong SOS!  Having said that, having seen the regional rankings, NOTHING would surprise me!  

At 9-0 Central is a reason that the SOS is strong for the Point as well.  UWW helps too. 

very true. I guess the other way of looking at it is the only D3 teams they have lost to at this point are both undefeated. And they beat Stout. But that third "unofficial" loss....hmmm... I just don't think they get in. We'll see

I don't think a three loss team gets in regardless of in region or in D3 loss.  It's a loss.  No way does a three loss team get in the playoffs even if they are better than a one loss St Norberts.  I think they take SNC before a three loss UWSP.  I don't think SNC has much of a chance with one loss to get in so that tells you how muchI think a three loss team gets in. 

A loss to a non-D-III team will only matter in that it takes away a (potential) D-III victory for Point.  You've gotta look at the criteria.  They, at 6-2, will be matched up against teams that are 8-2.  Depending how the criteria is weighted (and we aren't told this) 8-2 is two more wins and 5 percentage points "better" than 6-2, plain and simple.  Where it gets sticky is the OWP and OOWP...  By virtue of the fact that Point is playing two 3-5 teams in the last two games, their OWP will invariably go down.  Look at the math.


Actually, before I do that... I'm getting a different total for Point's OWP.  I only have .7, not .739.  I have their opponents' regional records totalling 28-12, which would be .7.  Their opponents would need to be 34-12 for the OWP to come out to .739 and they're not as far as I can see... they're just 28-12  (9,2,5,3,3,6 for opponents' regional wins, 0,4,2,3,3,0 for opponents' regional losses).

Am I doing something wrong, or are Point's numbers wrong?  

Anyway, back to the math...  let's assume that my numbers are right because they're nice (and more verifiable)... let's project.  

First off, assume Point wins... and assume Central wins, La Crosse or EC wins, so those teams get 1 win and 1 loss, assume Stout beats Platte, and WW beats Oshkosh.  

So, you have 4 wins (Central, LaX/EC winner, Stout, WW) and 3 losses (River Falls, EC/LaX loser, and Platteville.  

Add RF's 3-5 record coming in and Point's numbers aren't 28-12, they're 35-19, which is .648 AT BEST.  

As I said, I'm not sure how my current Point numbers at .7 are different than d3football's... but even if the higher number IS right, you have to add 7 wins and 8 losses to the OWP totals which will drag down Point's numbers.

The next week, they would be adding a team in Platteville with a 3-6 regional record.  Add the loss Point would tag on them to make it 3-7.  Stout and Oshkosh (1-1), RF and EC (1-1), and WW and LaX (1-1) means that you add 7 wins and 11 losses.  Even if Central wins, that's just 8 wins and 11 losses that are added to Point's totals... and from 35-19, they then go to 42-30, for a OWP of .583 .  That number (right now) is in the mid 40's in terms of OWP...  It clearly will change for every team, but it won't be high enough to overcome the two extra regional wins that they DON'T have compared to other teams.

Point's done folks.  They only way they get in is with two WW losses.  I haven't (and I'm not going to) run the OOWP... but that number is lower, at .526.  That may go up, it may go down... but it won't have the same drastic movement of almost 12 full percentage points that the OWP would.

And, of course, there's the whole topic of regional rankings...  Who knows if they'll even be "on the docket?"  They were at the bottom of the West last week... I would think they'd need to be higher than that to even get a sniff at a Pool C, and even with two wins, I just don't see that happening because of the meteoric plunge their OWP will take over the next two weeks.

[John Gleich]

the West was shaken up a bit

http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/category/regional-rankings/

UWW now #2......and climing. hopefully UWSP or UWStout can sneak in there in the next two weeks.

Linfield know nows what happens to your SOS when you play UPS  

No Point, which makes sense... AND NO two-loss teams.  There are 45 0 or 1 loss teams in D-III remaining according to the OWP/OOWP postings... That means that even several of the 1 loss teams would be out if the season ended today.  Of course it doesn't... so that number will fall, by how much no one knows...  but things don't look good for 2 loss teams.  They would need to have their other criteria be REALLY high... which, unfortunately, Point's will not be.

[D O.C.]

Linfield now knows what happens to your SOS when you play UPS   

...like they do every season.

[bleedpurple]

Congrats to Stout's Adam Churchill for the WIAC Defensive POW bid and Ross Carey for the D3Football.com POW bid.  

Congrats, too, to the UW Stout team on having a great season so far. Winning back to back road games against Eau Claire and LaCrosse is impressive! I hope they finish strong and make the playoffs!

I wouldn't mind seeing Stout (or UWSP) take on a team like St. John's in the first round of the playoffs, if they make it. I think they can beat them. They had a tough time against UWRF and UWEC, both under .500 in the conference. it would make for a good first-round matchup in the West.

There's talk on the Daily Dose Regional Rankings page of St. John's being the #1 overall seed (of the #1's), with Mount Union #2 and UWW #3, which would result in UWW playing at MUC in the semi's if they both advance that far. 

I think most would agree St. John's has not been a better team this year than UWW (not to mention MUC!), but for what it's worth, here are the common opponent capsules:

Common Opponents for St. John's and UW-Whitewater:

UW-Eau Claire.

UW-Eau Claire at St. John's
St. John's held a 1 pt. lead (28 to 27) with 55 seconds remaining when they scored a TD  to beat the Bluegolds 35-27.

UW Eau Claire at UW-Whitewater
UWW led 31-14 going into the 4th Quarter before adding a late touchdown to beat the Bluegolds 38-14. Levell Coppage rushed for a school record 382 yards.

UW River Falls

St. John's at UW River Falls
St. John's fell behind 17-0, then battled back, but never took the lead until 4:01 remaining in the fourth Quarter. River Falls led 24-14 with 9:00 left in the game, but the Johnnies scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to win 28-24

UW River falls at UWW
UWW led 38-0 going into the fourth quarter and won 38-14.

[Raider 68]

Congrats to Stout's Adam Churchill for the WIAC Defensive POW bid and Ross Carey for the D3Football.com POW bid. 

Congrats, too, to the UW Stout team on having a great season so far. Winning back to back road games against Eau Claire and LaCrosse is impressive! I hope they finish strong and make the playoffs!

I wouldn't mind seeing Stout (or UWSP) take on a team like St. John's in the first round of the playoffs, if they make it. I think they can beat them. They had a tough time against UWRF and UWEC, both under .500 in the conference. it would make for a good first-round matchup in the West.

There's talk on the Daily Dose Regional Rankings page of St. John's being the #1 overall seed (of the #1's), with Mount Union #2 and UWW #3, which would result in UWW playing at MUC in the semi's if they both advance that far. 

I think most would agree St. John's has not been a better team this year than UWW (not to mention MUC!), but for what it's worth, here are the common opponent capsules:

Common Opponents for St. John's and UW-Whitewater:

UW-Eau Claire.

UW-Eau Claire at St. John's
St. John's held a 1 pt. lead (28 to 27) with 55 seconds remaining when they scored a TD  to beat the Bluegolds 35-27.

UW Eau Claire at UW-Whitewater
UWW led 31-14 going into the 4th Quarter before adding a late touchdown to beat the Bluegolds 38-14. Levell Coppage rushed for a school record 382 yards.

UW River Falls

St. John's at UW River Falls
St. John's fell behind 17-0, then battled back, but never took the lead until 4:01 remaining in the fourth Quarter. River Falls led 24-14 with 9:00 left in the game, but the Johnnies scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to win 28-24

UW River falls at UWW
UWW led 38-0 going into the fourth quarter and won 38-14.

I just do not see the NCAA giving ST. Johns the #1 seed over Mount or UWW. While they are 8-0, 3 of their wins were sqeakers plus they have not been rated higher than #3 in the polls assuming the polls mean anything. UWW could be #1 in the Region rankings in 2 weeks as well.

[Devil Badger Gopher]

Does anyone else feel the WIAC is being left out in the Around the Region articles.  I read each week hoping it won't be all about the MIAC as it seems to be (6 of 8 articles had them featured or mentioned equally)  I wish he would write about the teams in the WIAC a little bit.  I mean to most it is a forgone conclusion that UWW goes undefeated, but there have been some great teams and great stories that are missed in the best conference.

[retagent]

You gentlemen are now getting a little full of yourselves. I don't think that even we Johnnie fans would argue that SJU is a better team than UWW this year. However, when using common opponents, and scores, you fall into a familiar trap. It hardly ever works out the way you think. Linfield had a seemingly tough time with UPS, yet what exactly does that mean, other than Linfield had a bad day against UPS, UPS had a good day against Linfield, a combination of the two, or something entirely different. It's a game where there are few constants. Whether any other WIAC teams could beat St John's is speculation at it's loosest.

Just for your edification, the practice regimen of St John's usually means that early in the season, they are looking at getting up to game speed in their first two or three games, and are usually a different team later in the year. That can be said of a lot of teams. The Johnnies have lost their starting QB, and may struggle against Augsburg this week. They might not. I would like to point to the 2004 season opener against UWEC. The Johnnies were down big, using, I believe, two QB's before "finding" Alex Kofoed, who engineered a not quite successful comeback, and then started at QB for four years. They have struggled to win this year, but the fact is, they have won every game they've played.

[Sakman 1111]

Here is a rarity me agreeing with Retagent. Matching scores against common opponents is simply.....Crap. It proves or means nothing. Simply the Johnnies are 8-0 just like my beloved Warhawks and until they play that makes them even(although I think the Warhawks will smoke them).....To be honest as I mentioned previously I believe the Warhawks are improved over the previous few years but I don't believe the WIAC is as good as a league as it was a few years ago.....that comment should get some people's panties in a bunch but thatis what I have come to conclude. On a happy note high school playoffs and family illnesses have faded away and we can return to our favorite place this weekend.....The Perk.....Look for 3 fat guys in the lot with Italian beefs,sausages, and bloody marys and come on by......Pound the Rock!!!! Can't believe we have not been to a game all year......thanx to the Voice we have listened every week.......

[John Gleich]

Matching scores against common opponents is simply.....Crap.

But it's always fun to post outlandish(ly inaccurate) predictions!  Like team A beat team B by 24 and team B beat team C by 31 and team C beat team A by 4... so team A should beat themselves by 59!

[02 Warhawk]

Matching scores against common opponents is simply.....Crap.

But it's always fun to post outlandish(ly inaccurate) predictions!  Like team A beat team B by 24 and team B beat team C by 31 and team C beat team A by 4... so team A should beat themselves by 59!

That's what these boards are for...

[bbaddict]

the West was shaken up a bit

http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/category/regional-rankings/

UWW now #2......and climing. hopefully UWSP or UWStout can sneak in there in the next two weeks.

Linfield now knows what happens to your SOS when you play UPS  

Linfield HAS to play UPS -- it's a conference thing.  Question is -- why did Whitewater play them?