FB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[bleedpurple]

Pretty quiet around here considering a pair of Top 5 teams are squaring off against each other on Saturday.....

Calm before the storm? 

We like to call it "Crickets in Candyland" in honor of some of the more creatively descriptive coaches we have in the WIAC.

[emma17]

BadgerWarhawk--the Titans are coming.....time to put on your big boy pants.

https://goo.gl/images/BhHJE6

Is that a jackass?

[emma17]

Pretty quiet around here considering a pair of Top 5 teams are squaring off against each other on Saturday.....

Calm before the storm? 

We like to call it "Crickets in Candyland" in honor of some of the more creatively descriptive coaches we have in the WIAC.

Funny.
In the big picture of WIAC representation in the playoffs, if UWW insists on winning this game one of the big 3 (no disrespect meant to UWSP and UWL) will end up w two D3 losses (assuming the remainder of season plays out as expected) and at the mercy of the Pez Dispenser Pool C process- never a good place to be.
UWW could take a more benevolent stance and cooperate w the master plan of three 9-1 WIAC teams- and use the playoffs to dispense of them.

[02 Warhawk]

Pretty quiet around here considering a pair of Top 5 teams are squaring off against each other on Saturday.....

Calm before the storm? 

Because we have to be careful of the UWO staff trolling these boards, again. 

I think we had one or two staff members/players create accounts just to trash talk after the UWO win last year. Funny how they had nothing to say after UWW got their revenge in Oshkosh during the playoffs a couple months later. #hitandrun

[bleedpurple]

Since it is quiet in here, I'm going muse about something I find interesting, but don't really care about. Polls.  I find polls (and people's reaction to them) interesting. The D3football.com Top 25 poll, for example, is a conglomerate of 25 different opinions. Yet, some people seem to respond as if it were one mind intentionally making an overall shift. Which, by the way, is why I would never want a poll to actually determine playoff seedings.o

For example, consider the following hypothetical results on the field for this Saturday and the hypothetical D3football.com poll result that could possibly occur because of it (without any voter doing anything outrageous or implausible). 

HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS:
Mount Union 29  Heidelberg 21. Mount plays sloppy and turns the ball over several times.
UW-W 24  UW-O  23  After trailing most of the game, Whitewater pulls out a last minute victory at home.
Mary Hardin Baylor 84  Howard Payne  0. UMHB limits the penalties and dominates in every aspect.
St. Thomas  24  Concordia Morehead 17.  Tommies escape, but Cobbers play them tough.

HYPOTHETICAL POLLSTER REACTIONS
Several more Mount Union voters feel a need to switch. Looking at the results, it appears UMHB is the only team "dominating", so they switch their vote to UMHB.  The pollster who had the Tommies #1  does the same.  A few others, who have been on the verge of swapping anyway, feel like they need to bring UMHB higher and bring them up a notch or two. As a result, the top of the next D3football.com Top 25 is:

1. Mount Union
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor
3. Whitewater
4. St. Thomas

Nothing outrageous about any of that in my opinion.  And it would have meant that Whitewater would have just had a three game stretch in which they beat the # 2 Team in NAIA, current #7, and current #5 teams in the country (pretty sure that surpasses what anyone else in the country has accomplished on the field) and DROPPED in the polls.  Nothing scandalous about it. It's just a reflection of the fact that a poll is a conglomerate.

[Pat Coleman]

Yep, all of that is very possible.

What's interesting here is that UMHB has votes pretty evenly spread over the top four spots, while UWW has 14 second-place votes. I suspect that even though an 84-0 win over a bad team would be as dominant a statement as UMHB could make this week, I don't know if UMHB would move past UWW on five ballots. That's a pretty big number, all things considered.

But good food for thought. Indeed, that's a plausible situation.

[emma17]

Since it is quiet in here, I'm going muse about something I find interesting, but don't really care about. Polls.  I find polls (and people's reaction to them) interesting. The D3football.com Top 25 poll, for example, is a conglomerate of 25 different opinions. Yet, some people seem to respond as if it were one mind intentionally making an overall shift. Which, by the way, is why I would never want a poll to actually determine playoff seedings.o

For example, consider the following hypothetical results on the field for this Saturday and the hypothetical D3football.com poll result that could possibly occur because of it (without any voter doing anything outrageous or implausible). 

HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS:
Mount Union 29  Heidelberg 21. Mount plays sloppy and turns the ball over several times.
UW-W 24  UW-O  23  After trailing most of the game, Whitewater pulls out a last minute victory at home.
Mary Hardin Baylor 84  Howard Payne  0. UMHB limits the penalties and dominates in every aspect.
St. Thomas  24  Concordia Morehead 17.  Tommies escape, but Cobbers play them tough.

HYPOTHETICAL POLLSTER REACTIONS
Several more Mount Union voters feel a need to switch. Looking at the results, it appears UMHB is the only team "dominating", so they switch their vote to UMHB.  The pollster who had the Tommies #1  does the same.  A few others, who have been on the verge of swapping anyway, feel like they need to bring UMHB higher and bring them up a notch or two. As a result, the top of the next D3football.com Top 25 is:

1. Mount Union
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor
3. Whitewater
4. St. Thomas

Nothing outrageous about any of that in my opinion.  And it would have meant that Whitewater would have just had a three game stretch in which they beat the # 2 Team in NAIA, current #7, and current #5 teams in the country (pretty sure that surpasses what anyone else in the country has accomplished on the field) and DROPPED in the polls.  Nothing scandalous about it. It's just a reflection of the fact that a poll is a conglomerate.

If UWO and UWP would get their act together, they'd be higher ranked at the time UWW beats them, which would prevent such an occurrence. 😊

If your hypothetical scenario actually plays out, although I won't cry foul, I would wonder if all posters really understand what it takes to run a three game stretch as UWW is in. It's not just having talent and making the plays, the physical wear and tear is so different than blow out games. If any team went 3-0 in this stretch and I were a voter, they'd get my #1.

On the subject of polls, I'd like to give credit to the pollsters this week in that UWP moved up with a loss. There are those that drop a team for losing without regard to who they lost to and how they lost. A real test will be if UWP losses a close game to UWO later on. If all else remains the same, you'd expect them to retain their ranking.

[retagent]

Since it is quiet in here, I'm going muse about something I find interesting, but don't really care about. Polls.  I find polls (and people's reaction to them) interesting. The D3football.com Top 25 poll, for example, is a conglomerate of 25 different opinions. Yet, some people seem to respond as if it were one mind intentionally making an overall shift. Which, by the way, is why I would never want a poll to actually determine playoff seedings.o

For example, consider the following hypothetical results on the field for this Saturday and the hypothetical D3football.com poll result that could possibly occur because of it (without any voter doing anything outrageous or implausible). 

HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS:
Mount Union 29  Heidelberg 21. Mount plays sloppy and turns the ball over several times.
UW-W 24  UW-O  23  After trailing most of the game, Whitewater pulls out a last minute victory at home.
Mary Hardin Baylor 84  Howard Payne  0. UMHB limits the penalties and dominates in every aspect.
St. Thomas  24  Concordia Morehead 17.  Tommies escape, but Cobbers play them tough.

HYPOTHETICAL POLLSTER REACTIONS
Several more Mount Union voters feel a need to switch. Looking at the results, it appears UMHB is the only team "dominating", so they switch their vote to UMHB.  The pollster who had the Tommies #1  does the same.  A few others, who have been on the verge of swapping anyway, feel like they need to bring UMHB higher and bring them up a notch or two. As a result, the top of the next D3football.com Top 25 is:

1. Mount Union
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor
3. Whitewater
4. St. Thomas

Nothing outrageous about any of that in my opinion.  And it would have meant that Whitewater would have just had a three game stretch in which they beat the # 2 Team in NAIA, current #7, and current #5 teams in the country (pretty sure that surpasses what anyone else in the country has accomplished on the field) and DROPPED in the polls.  Nothing scandalous about it. It's just a reflection of the fact that a poll is a conglomerate.

Good musing!

On a similar thought line, when St John's lost to the Tommies they fell a few slots, which was appropriate. Then after winning this past weekend, they fell behind Wheaton. Curious, but if they had fallen a couple more slots after the St Thomas loss, say to #13, that would not have been seen as unusual. Then after this past weeks win vs Bethel, had risen to their current #11, most would not have seen that as odd. Either way, they would now be at #11, just about right based on the first 4 weeks. The rest of the season will determine far better where everyone should be slotted than after only 4 weeks.

It's part art, and part "science" and those who vote all have their own biases and somewhat limited data. In the end, it really isn't all that important, but it is fodder for discussion, which is what we do.

[bleedpurple]

Since it is quiet in here, I'm going muse about something I find interesting, but don't really care about. Polls.  I find polls (and people's reaction to them) interesting. The D3football.com Top 25 poll, for example, is a conglomerate of 25 different opinions. Yet, some people seem to respond as if it were one mind intentionally making an overall shift. Which, by the way, is why I would never want a poll to actually determine playoff seedings.o

For example, consider the following hypothetical results on the field for this Saturday and the hypothetical D3football.com poll result that could possibly occur because of it (without any voter doing anything outrageous or implausible). 

HYPOTHETICAL RESULTS:
Mount Union 29  Heidelberg 21. Mount plays sloppy and turns the ball over several times.
UW-W 24  UW-O  23  After trailing most of the game, Whitewater pulls out a last minute victory at home.
Mary Hardin Baylor 84  Howard Payne  0. UMHB limits the penalties and dominates in every aspect.
St. Thomas  24  Concordia Morehead 17.  Tommies escape, but Cobbers play them tough.

HYPOTHETICAL POLLSTER REACTIONS
Several more Mount Union voters feel a need to switch. Looking at the results, it appears UMHB is the only team "dominating", so they switch their vote to UMHB.  The pollster who had the Tommies #1  does the same.  A few others, who have been on the verge of swapping anyway, feel like they need to bring UMHB higher and bring them up a notch or two. As a result, the top of the next D3football.com Top 25 is:

1. Mount Union
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor
3. Whitewater
4. St. Thomas

Nothing outrageous about any of that in my opinion.  And it would have meant that Whitewater would have just had a three game stretch in which they beat the # 2 Team in NAIA, current #7, and current #5 teams in the country (pretty sure that surpasses what anyone else in the country has accomplished on the field) and DROPPED in the polls.  Nothing scandalous about it. It's just a reflection of the fact that a poll is a conglomerate.

Good musing!

On a similar thought line, when St John's lost to the Tommies they fell a few slots, which was appropriate. Then after winning this past weekend, they fell behind Wheaton. Curious, but if they had fallen a couple more slots after the St Thomas loss, say to #13, that would not have been seen as unusual. Then after this past weeks win vs Bethel, had risen to their current #11, most would not have seen that as odd. Either way, they would now be at #11, just about right based on the first 4 weeks. The rest of the season will determine far better where everyone should be slotted than after only 4 weeks.

It's part art, and part "science" and those who vote all have their own biases and somewhat limited data. In the end, it really isn't all that important, but it is fodder for discussion, which is what we do.

Exactly. And what we don't know (and what can change) is how firm a voter feels about a certain team. Certain results may carry a "lasting impression" throughout a season. For example, the UMHB result against Linfiled could keep them upwardly mobile even if a future performance turns out to be less than inspiring. Obviously, the result itself appropriately carries a lot of weight. I guess I am thinking even beyond that. It would be interesting to know from voters if any "lasting impressions" impacted their ballots late in the year and whether the team's playoff/season ending performances justified it or disappointed.

[HansenRatings]

It's not just having talent and making the plays, the physical wear and tear is so different than blow out games. If any team went 3-0 in this stretch and I were a voter, they'd get my #1.

Totally agree with this. When I was a GA at UWP, we were always banged up after the UWW game (UWO was the last game of the year, so that wasn't as noticeable), the weeks after that game was a 20-10 and a 24-17 win over struggling LAX teams. Can't imagine having to play games like those UWW games three games in a row.

[wm4]

It's not just having talent and making the plays, the physical wear and tear is so different than blow out games. If any team went 3-0 in this stretch and I were a voter, they'd get my #1.

Totally agree with this. When I was a GA at UWP, we were always banged up after the UWW game (UWO was the last game of the year, so that wasn't as noticeable), the weeks after that game was a 20-10 and a 24-17 win over struggling LAX teams. Can't imagine having to play games like those UWW games three games in a row.

The "body bag" theory, on full display, very interesting.

[BoBo]

Clash with the Titans.

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/2016/10/06/warhawks-titans-ready-another-clash/91665466/

[emma17]

Clash with the Titans.

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/2016/10/06/warhawks-titans-ready-another-clash/91665466/

Cerroni nails one of the great keys to football success and life right here:

"Obviously, with what they've accomplished over the years, they don't fear anything," Cerroni said of the Warhawks. "What's great about our program now is we don't fear anything, either. Just knowing that is awesome".

[wally_wabash]

If your hypothetical scenario actually plays out, although I won't cry foul, I would wonder if all posters really understand what it takes to run a three game stretch as UWW is in. It's not just having talent and making the plays, the physical wear and tear is so different than blow out games. If any team went 3-0 in this stretch and I were a voter, they'd get my #1.

No doubt.  Nobody else in the division will have those three results, let alone those three in a row.  Should be a no brainer to put UWW #1, particularly with Mount Union being super young and kind of still figuring it out so far in 2016. 

[emma17]

I always enjoy checking out the point spread posted by Mr. Mom on the OAC Pickems.
On the subject of a difficult stretch, I see the point spread has been single digit in the last three games for UWW.
I wonder how often a top 10 team has been a single digit favorite for even two consecutive games, let alone three consecutive games.