FB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[HansenRatings]

Advanced Stat Profiles for UWW v. JCU (all numbers adjusted for opponent quality)

.	UWW	JCU
Scoring Margin:	#7 (+40.26 ppg)	#9 (+36.91 ppg)
Scoring Offense:	#11 (45.57 ppg)	#24 (40.78 ppg)
Scoring Defense:	#5 (5.31 ppg)	#2 (3.87 ppg)
Net Efficiency:	#24|#15 (+1.95 ypp|+4.25 any/p)	#9|#11 (+3.21 ypp|+4.86 any/p)
Offensive Efficiency:	#42|#37 (6.12 ypp|6.41 any/p)	#65|#47 (5.87 ypp|6.24 any/p)
Defensive Efficiency:	#31|#6 (4.17 ypp|2.17 any/p)	#1|#2 (2.67 ypp|1.38 any/p)
Rushing Offense:	#36|#34 (5.02 ypp|5.69 any/p)	#37|#24 (4.99 ypp|5.96 any/p)
Rushing Defense:	#6|#4 (2.30 ypp|1.59 any/p)	#2|#2 (1.94 ypp|1.33 any/p)
Passing Offense:	#48|#51 (8.10 ypp|7.64 any/p)	#118|#88 (7.15 ypp|6.75 any/p)
Passing Defense:	#69|#13 (5.53 ypp|2.39 any/p)	#1|#2 (2.94 ypp|0.88 any/p)

[Toph]

I tend to agree that there isn't a bubble to burst.  JCU hasn't gone through this season and won by luck.  They are very, very good.  The Oshkosh game is the one common opponent with Whitewater, and I would be interested to see how that game would turn out now.  I think it would be closer, if not a different result entirely.  We all have to remember in looking at that game, that was Moeglin's first collegiate start, on the road, against a top 10 team, a trial by fire if there ever was one. 

Here's what I know is true, and I don't need the advanced statistics to back me up (although it helps to see the posts from HansenRatings).  They took a team in Wesley that was averaging nearly 500 yards of offense and 40 points per game and shut them out for four quarters, holding them to 170 yards of total offense including overtime.  Against Mount Union, at Mount Union, they forced Mount Union to play how they wanted, and while they gave up some yardage against the pass, they forced a lot of turnovers and got them job done.

It will be interesting to see how they fare against Whitewater, but as long as the D keeps them in it, they've got a chance.

[JCUStreaks70]

I tend to agree that there isn't a bubble to burst.  JCU hasn't gone through this season and won by luck.  They are very, very good.  The Oshkosh game is the one common opponent with Whitewater, and I would be interested to see how that game would turn out now.  I think it would be closer, if not a different result entirely.  We all have to remember in looking at that game, that was Moeglin's first collegiate start, on the road, against a top 10 team, a trial by fire if there ever was one. 

Here's what I know is true, and I don't need the advanced statistics to back me up (although it helps to see the posts from HansenRatings).  They took a team in Wesley that was averaging nearly 500 yards of offense and 40 points per game and shut them out for four quarters, holding them to 170 yards of total offense including overtime.  Against Mount Union, at Mount Union, they forced Mount Union to play how they wanted, and while they gave up some yardage against the pass, they forced a lot of turnovers and got them job done.

It will be interesting to see how they fare against Whitewater, but as long as the D keeps them in it, they've got a chance.

And in the interest of playing devil's advocate, I understand Saturday was not good offensively, especially with 4 INT's; but we have to remember, Wesley's Front 7, is very good, so Arth knew that to be them would require putting the ball in the air. Add the wind the way it was, of course balls are not always going to go where they were supposed to.

I do expect that in terms of performance, our offense will be better this week. But we will have our hands full, for sure.

[WarhawkDad]

Posted on the MIAC page, posting here for posterity. Working on UWW/JCU

Advanced Stat Profiles for UST v. UWO (all numbers adjusted for opponent quality)

.	UST	UWO
Scoring Margin:	#1 (+50.57 ppg)	#2 (+47.54 ppg)
Scoring Offense:	#2 (55.04 ppg)	#5 (49.06 ppg)
Scoring Defense:	#4 (4.47 ppg)	#1 (1.52 ppg)
Net Efficiency:	#13|#8 (+2.83 ypp|+4.98 any/p)	#2|#2 (+4.27 ypp|+6.55 any/p)
Offensive Efficiency:	#19|#12 (6.58 ypp|7.57 any/p)	#2|#2 (7.83 ypp|8.86 any/p)
Defensive Efficiency:	#15|#13 (3.75 ypp|2.59 any/p)	#9|#8 (3.56 ypp|2.31 any/p)
Rushing Offense:	#31|#20 (5.11 ypp|6.15 any/p)	#1|#1 (7.40 ypp|8.68 any/p)
Rushing Defense:	#13|#11 (2.75 ypp|2.45 any/p)	#20|#18 (3.00 ypp|2.72 any/p)
Passing Offense:	#23|#13 (8.76 ypp|9.53 any/p)	#27|#19 (8.61 ypp|9.07 any/p)
Passing Defense:	#27|#12 (4.71 ypp|2.33 any/p)	#12|#6 (4.13 ypp|1.54 any/p)

I just have a question about how you methodologically go about "adjusting for opponent quality"?  That has to be the most important factor in what you are presenting. 

Thanks

WHD

[HansenRatings]

I'll use rushing offense as an example. Say the University of Okoboji averages 5.5 yards per carry. Their opponents allow an average of 4.0 yards per carry. The national average is around 4.25 ypc. So then Okoboji's new rushing average is
5.5-4.0+4.25 = 5.75
Their opponents' rushing D would also be updated based on the average rushing offense they faced. So in the second iteration of this, Okoboji's defenses faced might give up an average of 4.4 ypc. Then their new rushing O would be
5.75-4.4+4.25 = 5.6 ypc
And so on and so on...

[emma17]

A quote from Coach Arth regarding playing UWO, carried in the News-Herald:
"Having that experience, and going to that caliber of an opponent, I believe we would not be in the situation we are now, had this type of season, had we not played that team," said Arth. "There's no way in the world we would be as prepared as we are now."

This game can go all sorts of ways.  We UWW fans can look historically at how UWW has performed against teams with similar impressive numbers as Hansen's model shows-Mt in 2007 seemed to be #1 in every category there was, St Thomas in 2011, NCC in 2010 and UMHB in 2013- and take some comfort that the Hawks will find a way.  On the other hand, UWW's numbers are a bit out of the norm this year, so it's understandable to worry.  These are the games I'm especially thankful for strong UWW offensive and defensive lines. 
 

[Desertraider]

I'll use rushing offense as an example. Say the University of Okoboji averages 5.5 yards per carry. Their opponents allow an average of 4.0 yards per carry. The national average is around 4.25 ypc. So then Okoboji's new rushing average is
5.5-4.0+4.25 = 5.75
Their opponents' rushing D would also be updated based on the average rushing offense they faced. So in the second iteration of this, Okoboji's defenses faced might give up an average of 4.4 ypc. Then their new rushing O would be
5.75-4.4+4.25 = 5.6 ypc
And so on and so on...

My doctor went to UofOk for med school!

UWW should fare well against JCU. Their best WR (IMHO) is Howell. Normally sure handed and can get deep. Golphin is a good runner - not great. I know he had 119 yards on 9 carries against Mount - but he got 1 play for 80 yds and a score. Keep gap protection and limit the cutbacks and UWWs LBs (always good) can bottle him up. My thoughts on jcu can be summed up this way:
1. Mount is not the "Beast Mount" of last year
2. Mount had 4 TOs (2 INTs and 2 fumbles)
3. Mount gave up 7 sacks AND

jcu needed a last second TD to win it. jcu played a great game, Mount played like garbage and almost pulled it out. Please don't think I am hammering jcu - the D is really good and forced the TOs and got the sacks. But the offense is ho-hum at best. Take away the big play and UWW should prevail in this one.

[emma17]

emma, did you hear Gruden last night on MNF talking about running the slants? He must be your new best friend!

I tuned in just in time to see his bit- I do love that man. My wife was kind enough to sit and review the concept of the play. Even she came to the conclusion that it's a terrific play and asked "why doesn't UWW run this play more often"?

I don't know honey, I just don't know.

[Toph]

I'll use rushing offense as an example. Say the University of Okoboji averages 5.5 yards per carry. Their opponents allow an average of 4.0 yards per carry. The national average is around 4.25 ypc. So then Okoboji's new rushing average is
5.5-4.0+4.25 = 5.75
Their opponents' rushing D would also be updated based on the average rushing offense they faced. So in the second iteration of this, Okoboji's defenses faced might give up an average of 4.4 ypc. Then their new rushing O would be
5.75-4.4+4.25 = 5.6 ypc
And so on and so on...

My doctor went to UofOk for med school!

UWW should fare well against JCU. Their best WR (IMHO) is Howell. Normally sure handed and can get deep. Golphin is a good runner - not great. I know he had 119 yards on 9 carries against Mount - but he got 1 play for 80 yds and a score. Keep gap protection and limit the cutbacks and UWWs LBs (always good) can bottle him up. My thoughts on jcu can be summed up this way:
1. Mount is not the "Beast Mount" of last year
2. Mount had 4 TOs (2 INTs and 2 fumbles)
3. Mount gave up 7 sacks AND

jcu needed a last second TD to win it. jcu played a great game, Mount played like garbage and almost pulled it out. Please don't think I am hammering jcu - the D is really good and forced the TOs and got the sacks. But the offense is ho-hum at best. Take away the big play and UWW should prevail in this one.

If I had one complaint about some Mount Union fans (and I know plenty of them), it's this: they often act as though there is only one team on the field that decides how a game goes, and if Mount plays poorly, it's simply chalked up to Mount playing poorly, not how the other team played (although you did give JCU credit late in the post).  I've posted about this before in the past.  A couple years ago when I traveled to watch JCU play at Mount and the game stayed close, my brother (a Mount grad who did not attend the game) texted and asked "Why is Mount letting them stay in this?"  Again, as if there wasn't another team on the field.

Mount had four turnovers and gave up seven sacks because John Carroll forced four turnovers and created seven sacks.  I wasn't there, but I'm willing to bet Davis wasn't just throwing the ball to the wrong team on purpose, and his going 19-39 wasn't the result of 20 intentional throws away.  Mount Union "played like garbage" because John Carroll's defense forced them to play like garbage.  The fact that Mount Union was able to come back and force JCU to make a play to win, I think, says more about Mount Union than it does about Carroll.  By the way, JCU made the play.

I don't know if JCU will win Saturday, but I think the defense is good enough to keep it close.

[WarhawkDad]

I'll use rushing offense as an example. Say the University of Okoboji averages 5.5 yards per carry. Their opponents allow an average of 4.0 yards per carry. The national average is around 4.25 ypc. So then Okoboji's new rushing average is
5.5-4.0+4.25 = 5.75
Their opponents' rushing D would also be updated based on the average rushing offense they faced. So in the second iteration of this, Okoboji's defenses faced might give up an average of 4.4 ypc. Then their new rushing O would be
5.75-4.4+4.25 = 5.6 ypc
And so on and so on...

With all due respect, I am not sure this really deals with the opponents strength.   If the opponents allow an average of 4.0 yards per carry, doesn't it also depend upon who they play?   So, if a conference is overall weaker, then you can dominate on O and dominate on D, but that does not really translate when you get to this part of the playoffs.    Not knocking the OAC, but in reality they only play one non-conference game and several OAC posters have said that the OAC is weaker this year.    Just my two cents.

WHD

[HansenRatings]

I'll use rushing offense as an example. Say the University of Okoboji averages 5.5 yards per carry. Their opponents allow an average of 4.0 yards per carry. The national average is around 4.25 ypc. So then Okoboji's new rushing average is
5.5-4.0+4.25 = 5.75
Their opponents' rushing D would also be updated based on the average rushing offense they (i.e. opponents' opponents) faced. So in the second iteration of this, Okoboji's defenses faced might give up an average of 4.4 ypc. Then their new rushing O would be
5.75-4.4+4.25 = 5.6 ypc
And so on and so on...

With all due respect, I am not sure this really deals with the opponents strength.   If the opponents allow an average of 4.0 yards per carry, doesn't it also depend upon who they play?   So, if a conference is overall weaker, then you can dominate on O and dominate on D, but that does not really translate when you get to this part of the playoffs.    Not knocking the OAC, but in reality they only play one non-conference game and several OAC posters have said that the OAC is weaker this year.    Just my two cents.

WHD

See the bolded portion above. The calculation for opponents' rushing defense (and every other stat) is done simultaneously, and iterated until it stabilizes, to account for exactly what you're talking about.

[JCUStreaks70]

I'll use rushing offense as an example. Say the University of Okoboji averages 5.5 yards per carry. Their opponents allow an average of 4.0 yards per carry. The national average is around 4.25 ypc. So then Okoboji's new rushing average is
5.5-4.0+4.25 = 5.75
Their opponents' rushing D would also be updated based on the average rushing offense they faced. So in the second iteration of this, Okoboji's defenses faced might give up an average of 4.4 ypc. Then their new rushing O would be
5.75-4.4+4.25 = 5.6 ypc
And so on and so on...

My doctor went to UofOk for med school!

UWW should fare well against JCU. Their best WR (IMHO) is Howell. Normally sure handed and can get deep. Golphin is a good runner - not great. I know he had 119 yards on 9 carries against Mount - but he got 1 play for 80 yds and a score. Keep gap protection and limit the cutbacks and UWWs LBs (always good) can bottle him up. My thoughts on jcu can be summed up this way:
1. Mount is not the "Beast Mount" of last year
2. Mount had 4 TOs (2 INTs and 2 fumbles)
3. Mount gave up 7 sacks AND

jcu needed a last second TD to win it. jcu played a great game, Mount played like garbage and almost pulled it out. Please don't think I am hammering jcu - the D is really good and forced the TOs and got the sacks. But the offense is ho-hum at best. Take away the big play and UWW should prevail in this one.

If I had one complaint about some Mount Union fans (and I know plenty of them), it's this: they often act as though there is only one team on the field that decides how a game goes, and if Mount plays poorly, it's simply chalked up to Mount playing poorly, not how the other team played (although you did give JCU credit late in the post).  I've posted about this before in the past.  A couple years ago when I traveled to watch JCU play at Mount and the game stayed close, my brother (a Mount grad who did not attend the game) texted and asked "Why is Mount letting them stay in this?"  Again, as if there wasn't another team on the field.

Mount had four turnovers and gave up seven sacks because John Carroll forced four turnovers and created seven sacks.  I wasn't there, but I'm willing to bet Davis wasn't just throwing the ball to the wrong team on purpose, and his going 19-39 wasn't the result of 20 intentional throws away.  Mount Union "played like garbage" because John Carroll's defense forced them to play like garbage.  The fact that Mount Union was able to come back and force JCU to make a play to win, I think, says more about Mount Union than it does about Carroll.  By the way, JCU made the play.

I don't know if JCU will win Saturday, but I think the defense is good enough to keep it close.

+k

Amen Toph!

[Desertraider]

I'll use rushing offense as an example. Say the University of Okoboji averages 5.5 yards per carry. Their opponents allow an average of 4.0 yards per carry. The national average is around 4.25 ypc. So then Okoboji's new rushing average is
5.5-4.0+4.25 = 5.75
Their opponents' rushing D would also be updated based on the average rushing offense they faced. So in the second iteration of this, Okoboji's defenses faced might give up an average of 4.4 ypc. Then their new rushing O would be
5.75-4.4+4.25 = 5.6 ypc
And so on and so on...

My doctor went to UofOk for med school!

UWW should fare well against JCU. Their best WR (IMHO) is Howell. Normally sure handed and can get deep. Golphin is a good runner - not great. I know he had 119 yards on 9 carries against Mount - but he got 1 play for 80 yds and a score. Keep gap protection and limit the cutbacks and UWWs LBs (always good) can bottle him up. My thoughts on jcu can be summed up this way:
1. Mount is not the "Beast Mount" of last year
2. Mount had 4 TOs (2 INTs and 2 fumbles)
3. Mount gave up 7 sacks AND

jcu needed a last second TD to win it. jcu played a great game, Mount played like garbage and almost pulled it out. Please don't think I am hammering jcu - the D is really good and forced the TOs and got the sacks. But the offense is ho-hum at best. Take away the big play and UWW should prevail in this one.

If I had one complaint about some Mount Union fans (and I know plenty of them), it's this: they often act as though there is only one team on the field that decides how a game goes, and if Mount plays poorly, it's simply chalked up to Mount playing poorly, not how the other team played (although you did give JCU credit late in the post).  I've posted about this before in the past.  A couple years ago when I traveled to watch JCU play at Mount and the game stayed close, my brother (a Mount grad who did not attend the game) texted and asked "Why is Mount letting them stay in this?"  Again, as if there wasn't another team on the field.

Mount had four turnovers and gave up seven sacks because John Carroll forced four turnovers and created seven sacks.  I wasn't there, but I'm willing to bet Davis wasn't just throwing the ball to the wrong team on purpose, and his going 19-39 wasn't the result of 20 intentional throws away.  Mount Union "played like garbage" because John Carroll's defense forced them to play like garbage.  The fact that Mount Union was able to come back and force JCU to make a play to win, I think, says more about Mount Union than it does about Carroll.  By the way, JCU made the play.

I don't know if JCU will win Saturday, but I think the defense is good enough to keep it close.

If I had one complaint about jcu fans it would be this: they read the entire post and ignore most of it, then blast away. Your entire post is a rambling of my comment "Please don't think I am hammering jcu - the D is really good and forced the TOs and got the sacks.". Right there I acknowledge that A) 2 teams were on the field and B) that jcu forced them to play that way. Talk about taking offense where there is none. Of course I gave jcu credit "late in the post" - they earned it. The question is why post as if the credit wasn't given even if you acknowledge it was?

[WarhawkDad]

emma, did you hear Gruden last night on MNF talking about running the slants? He must be your new best friend!

I tuned in just in time to see his bit- I do love that man. My wife was kind enough to sit and review the concept of the play. Even she came to the conclusion that it's a terrific play and asked "why doesn't UWW run this play more often"?

I don't know honey, I just don't know.

LOL!    Knowing your honey....this is a little suspect!   Are you sure it wasn't it the ghost of Jeff Donovan, past?   

WHD

[Toph]

[Getting rid of a million long quotes for a one sentence reply...]

Because while giving credit, the tone of the post still read as though JCU didn't beat Mount as much as Mount beat themselves, which is what I hear every few years when Mount loses a game.