FB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[cubs]

UWO in the first 2 1/2 quarters were as dominant as any team I've seen play against a quality opponent.

Couldn't agree with you more!!!!  I would argue that Saturday's win over North Central was easily the most impressive playoff win they have had (of eight total) over the last three seasons...

[emma17]

Looking forward to Wartburg at UWO. The last time the Knights came into WI for a playoff game they made believers of D3 fans. It took a high-powered UWW offense to pull out all the stops to get that victory.
Interesting, they were undefeated in 2014 and ranked 5th in the country, this year they are undefeated and ranked 17th. I don't see that as a knock on the Knights, but more a reflection of how many good teams there are in D3 this year. 

Wartburg is one of those teams that I find myself rooting for, like Franklin and some others, but this won't be one of those weeks.

I'm sure most WIAC fans won't make the mistake of underrating this team.

[Pat Coleman]

Looking forward to Wartburg at UWO. The last time the Knights came into WI for a playoff game they made believers of D3 fans. It took a high-powered UWW offense to pull out all the stops to get that victory.
Interesting, they were undefeated in 2014 and ranked 5th in the country, this year they are undefeated and ranked 17th. I don't see that as a knock on the Knights, but more a reflection of how many good teams there are in D3 this year. 

I see it as a reflection of the fact that Wartburg played Bethel and Stout in non-conference in 2014 (and Augsburg) and played Monmouth and Washington U. this year.

[jknezek]

Looking forward to Wartburg at UWO. The last time the Knights came into WI for a playoff game they made believers of D3 fans. It took a high-powered UWW offense to pull out all the stops to get that victory.
Interesting, they were undefeated in 2014 and ranked 5th in the country, this year they are undefeated and ranked 17th. I don't see that as a knock on the Knights, but more a reflection of how many good teams there are in D3 this year. 

I see it as a reflection of the fact that Wartburg played Bethel and Stout in non-conference in 2014 (and Augsburg) and played Monmouth and Washington U. this year.

You mean 7-3 Bethel that got blown out by St. Johns and gave up 62 points in a loss to (Augsburg)? Or 2-8 Stout? It's hard to argue that OOC slate was better than Wartburg's this year. Monmouth made the playoffs, something no 2014 opponent could brag of, and Wash U might have gone 3-6, but they did it against 4 playoff teams and UWW, without really getting hammered, though admittedly losing substantially a few times. Wash U's results and schedule this year are more impressive than Stout's 2014 egg.

Perception is funny, but I don't think that the strength, or lack of, in the 2014 OOC schedule versus 2017 can logically explain the gap. Just a lot of preconceived notions by the voters and, more likely, the fact that Wartburg was a playoff team in 2013 as opposed to this season where they had missed the two previous years running. Poll bias is tough to get away from and its harder to climb substantially from the outside at the beginning than to hold on to a decent notion awarded at the start.

[emma17]

Jk- you raise an interesting point.
Poor Wash U- they get battered about their record, yet played the toughest schedule, casting their Rodney Dangerfield aura everywhere. 

I think the UWW losses to IWU and C-M sent more ripple effects through the rankings than I first realized.

If Wartburg were playing CWRU, Witt, IWU or W&J, would they be favored? My guess is at least 3 out  of 4 of the games.

[jknezek]

I have no idea Emma. I was comparing why I think Wartburg is under ranked this year compared to 2014. Pat thought the OOC was the cause. I think it's more poll bias. My post has very little to do with what you posted.

[Pat Coleman]

You mean 7-3 Bethel that got blown out by St. Johns and gave up 62 points in a loss to (Augsburg)? Or 2-8 Stout? It's hard to argue that OOC slate was better than Wartburg's this year. Monmouth made the playoffs, something no 2014 opponent could brag of, and Wash U might have gone 3-6, but they did it against 4 playoff teams and UWW, without really getting hammered, though admittedly losing substantially a few times. Wash U's results and schedule this year are more impressive than Stout's 2014 egg.

No doubt, but at the time Bethel was coming off a 12-1 season. That Bethel 2014 team did also beat St. Thomas and yes, on the frozen field in Week 11 there was a crazy game that kept them out of the playoffs.

Monmouth making the 2017 playoffs is not really a Top 25 criterion. And subsequently, Monmouth got drilled by Trine, which then got drilled by Wartburg in consecutive weeks. That Bethel team was probably better than this Monmouth team, even with the ice bowl at the end of the season.

[Pat Coleman]

Wartburg started the season at No. 17 in 2014 and moved up based on what it did on the field, for sure. But our voters don't generally move teams up just for maintaining unbeaten records while other teams lose. Great example of that is Case Western Reserve starting the season at 22 and ending the regular season at 16. Wittenberg similarly went from 16 to 12.

In the AFCA poll, Wartburg was already 3-0 with a win vs. Monmouth before anyone there cast a vote. But Wartburg is only No. 15 in the AFCA Top 25 -- it's not like they're significantly higher in that poll than in ours.

[jknezek]

All that is true but none of that really addresses the well known and highly researched issue of poll bias. It exists, and it exists in just about every poll. That's not a knock on the D3 poll any more than any other poll. The fact is, if you start the season in the Top 10 and take a loss or even 2, you are more likely to finish higher than a team that starts the season outside the Top 25 and goes undefeated. Regardless of schedule, this is a well known issue with polls and it's particularly bad with polls that start before the first contest. People simply won't let go of a perception and don't like to admit they are wrong.

The major reason Wartburg is below where they were 3 years ago? Because they started below. Sadly that is just how polls work.

[emma17]

I have no idea Emma. I was comparing why I think Wartburg is under ranked this year compared to 2014. Pat thought the OOC was the cause. I think it's more poll bias. My post has very little to do with what you posted.

I did go a bit further than the specific point you made as I had Pat's post in mind as well. I do think the connection is there- poll bias. I believe your point is the ranking gap is based on a two-year playoff drought creating a poll bias.
My point is the poll bias isn't just related to prior years. Poll bias probably occurred because voters placed great significance (perhaps too much) on the early victories over UWW. In doing that, it may have been harder for Wartburg to move up the ranking ladder because other teams gained benefit directly or vicariously from the IWU and CM victories.
The Wash U thing worked in the opposite direction. Their record was seen as a negative in sos, but as you pointed out, they played a whale of a schedule and showed competitiveness in many.

[jknezek]

I see Emma. And yes I agree.

[Mr. Ypsi]

All that is true but none of that really addresses the well known and highly researched issue of poll bias. It exists, and it exists in just about every poll. That's not a knock on the D3 poll any more than any other poll. The fact is, if you start the season in the Top 10 and take a loss or even 2, you are more likely to finish higher than a team that starts the season outside the Top 25 and goes undefeated. Regardless of schedule, this is a well known issue with polls and it's particularly bad with polls that start before the first contest. People simply won't let go of a perception and don't like to admit they are wrong.

The major reason Wartburg is below where they were 3 years ago? Because they started below. Sadly that is just how polls work.

I taught survey research and sociology at EMU.  There are many types of polling biases, so a better (more specific) term would be 'anchoring bias', which exists in many areas of life.  From a given starting point (EVEN if arbitrarily designated), people's later estimates will vary far less from that point than if they were starting from scratch.

So I agree that most likely the major difference between Wartburg 2014 and 2017 was where they started in the preseason poll.  (Pat may well be correct on why they started so differently in the preseason poll!)

[Pat Coleman]

All that is true but none of that really addresses the well known and highly researched issue of poll bias. It exists, and it exists in just about every poll. That's not a knock on the D3 poll any more than any other poll. The fact is, if you start the season in the Top 10 and take a loss or even 2, you are more likely to finish higher than a team that starts the season outside the Top 25 and goes undefeated. Regardless of schedule, this is a well known issue with polls and it's particularly bad with polls that start before the first contest. People simply won't let go of a perception and don't like to admit they are wrong.

The major reason Wartburg is below where they were 3 years ago? Because they started below. Sadly that is just how polls work.

I'd be foolish to deny that's part of it. But I do also feel that our poll does a good job moving teams up that show they deserve it. Brockport State is a good example of a team that started this season out of the poll and played its way in. Brockport had zero votes in the preseason poll and look where they are now.

Wartburg can certainly prove this assessment wrong on Saturday. However, I don't think they'll do so.

[UWO Titan 78]

Not sure what to think of this Wartburg team. I know they came into Whitewater a few years ago and played them down to the wire. I put this Titan team close to those Warhawk teams (especially offensively), but I don't know anything about Wartburg. I predicted the winner of the Oshkosh/North Central game to win the bracket, so I still like my Titans chances. If we don't turn the ball over, I'm guessing we have too much firepower (at least that is what I'm hoping). Anybody know anything about this version of the Knights?

[wildcat11]

Not sure what to think of this Wartburg team. I know they came into Whitewater a few years ago and played them down to the wire. I put this Titan team close to those Warhawk teams (especially offensively), but I don't know anything about Wartburg. I predicted the winner of the Oshkosh/North Central game to win the bracket, so I still like my Titans chances. If we don't turn the ball over, I'm guessing we have too much firepower (at least that is what I'm hoping). Anybody know anything about this version of the Knights?

They don't seem nearly as dangerous as the 2014 version.  I think Oshkosh will handle their business and move on without much of an issue.