FB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[emma17]

The big run issue for me is certainly more intuitive. BW and WW don't see it as a concern. I will trust my instincts and stick with the idea that it is certainly a concern, as long as we are looking at UWW as a national champion contender and not simply as a team competing to win the WIAC.

Some Facts:
-UWW was held without a TD in the first half at UWL, gaining only 69 yards.
-UWW was held scoreless in the second half vs. Concordia, gaining only 119 yards.
-UWW is averaging 3.65 yards per carry against D3 competition.   
-Every team (except Brockport at 19 yards) in the Top 12 (I stopped looking after that) has had at least one RB carry of 20 yards or more, in nearly every game they played. UWW has none.

Moving from intuitive to statistical, I came across an interesting article on big plays (I need Hansen's help in deciphering, but I get the gist that the more efficient an offense, the more explosive plays it will have). A quote is below, as well as a link. Some statistics folks may find it interesting.

Big plays are probably the single most important factor to winning football games. The team more adept at creating numbers advantages and getting a guy into the open field, or the team that can simply outman its opponent and win one-on-one battles will almost certainly generate more big plays and win more games.

Nothing is more demoralizing than giving up a 20-play, 80-yard, nine-minute drive. But unless your team is Navy, that doesn't happen too often. Defensive coaches often teach their squads the concept of leverage — prevent the ball-carrier from getting the outside lane, steer him to the middle, make the tackle, and live to play another down. It is the bend-don't-break style of defense, and it often works because if you give the offense enough opportunities, they might eventually make a drive-killing mistake, especially at the collegiate level. If you allow them 40 yards in one play, their likelihood of making a drive-killing mistake plummets.

Article: https://www-footballstudyhall-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.footballstudyhall.com/platform/amp/2017/8/22/16075050/college-football-big-plays-efficiency-five-factors?amp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQGCAEoATgA#origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&prerenderSize=1&visibilityState=prerender&paddingTop=54&p2r=0&horizontalScrolling=0&csi=1&aoh=15384915237478&viewerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Famp%2Fs%2Fwww.footballstudyhall.com%2Fplatform%2Famp%2F2017%2F8%2F22%2F16075050%2Fcollege-football-big-plays-efficiency-five-factors&history=1&storage=1&cid=1&cap=swipe%2CnavigateTo%2Ccid%2Cfragment%2CreplaceUrl

That's compelling evidence, Emma. Maybe they're not explosive-play capable on the ground. I'm not sure they're very explosive-play capable through the air either, although they've managed a couple. In any case, you've convinced me that Oshkosh should be favored by a touchdown Saturday.

Dagnabbit- backfired.

[emma17]

Wabash had five players last week have single rushes for 19 yards or more.  When do I place my order for Stagg Bowl swag?   

That would be a sight to see see. All those Lil Giant fans, decked out in candy-striper jump suits, roaming the streets of Shenandoah, TX and squaring off with Mt, and all their purple teletubby looking fans.
btw, no offense intended. 

[WW]

if it's any consolation, emma17, Titans are also averaging 3.6 yds/rush

[emma17]

if it's any consolation, emma17, Titans are also averaging 3.6 yds/rush

Well not really. 5.1 vs UWRF and 3.9 vs Carthage, their two D3 opponents.

Lest I give the wrong impression, I'm not throwing in the towel and I am 100% on the UWW bus. I'm also not of the mindset that UWO has any advantage on UWW, including coaching (semi final vs Mt says it all). I've pointed out a statistical pattern that I believe the UWW coaching staff should be concentrating on. Perhaps they are weeks ahead of me and have been working diligently on it. I know we typically think the coaching staff is light years ahead of us armchair QB's, but just in case they've had their plates overly full, I hope to help.

[badgerwarhawk]

Stout's Jed Schiegel is on this week's D3football.com team of the week.


S Jed Schlegel
Jr., UW-Stout
Schlegel finished with 10 tackles, four solo, had two pass breakups and his second interception of the season in a 26-20 win over UW-Eau Claire. With Stout holding a 26-20 lead late in the fourth quarter, Schlegel's interception sealed the win for the Blue Devils

[bleedpurple]

Emma,

On my never ending quest to figure out how your brain works, I have a serious question for you.  If Alex Peete had broken off 4 or 5 runs of 20 or more yards so far this year, which UW-W "shortcoming" would you be focused on right now?

[bleedpurple]

I suppose getting 174 yards rushing as a team is good. However, it took 48 attempts to get there, which is not so good (3.6 per carry).

Ask the UW-L defensive linemen how they felt at the end of that game and perhaps you'd have a greater understanding of the value of 48 for 174.

[02 Warhawk]

I suppose getting 174 yards rushing as a team is good. However, it took 48 attempts to get there, which is not so good (3.6 per carry).

Ask the UW-L defensive linemen how they felt at the end of that game and perhaps you'd have a greater understanding of the value of 48 for 174.

All things considered, i think their front 7 did their job against uww's running attack. Not sure much more could have been asked from them. It's not like they were gashed. However, I think UWW running game did open things up for Cole and the passing game.

[WW]

FWIW, removing QB sacks from the equation (NFL is right to do so — why doesn't college football?) leaves UWW at 4.1 yds per actual rushing play attempt (46/188) Saturday.

[emma17]

Emma,

On my never ending quest to figure out how your brain works, I have a serious question for you.  If Alex Peete had broken off 4 or 5 runs of 20 or more yards so far this year, which UW-W "shortcoming" would you be focused on right now?

In no particular order:
Why is there no motion or pre-snap shifts by the O? This is offensive coordinator number 2 under Coach Bullis that has scrapped that aspect of the previous championship teams. Maybe, just maybe, motion and shifting gives UWW the numerical advantage every now and then, along w the possibility of the slightest alignment confusion by the D, and maybe, just maybe, UWW running backs might have just a slightly greater chance of breaking longer runs.

Why doesn't the offense use more shorter passing routes like slants, crossing, outs and tight end routes? Again, all plays used very effectively two OC's ago.

Bombs are fun, but completion percentage is low and once UWW faces more athletic defensive backs, the percentage will get lower.

Why doesn't UWW employ the hurry-up offense more consistently?

After UWO I'll probably have more.

[02 Warhawk]

Emma,

On my never ending quest to figure out how your brain works, I have a serious question for you.  If Alex Peete had broken off 4 or 5 runs of 20 or more yards so far this year, which UW-W "shortcoming" would you be focused on right now?

In no particular order:
Why is there no motion or pre-snap shifts by the O? This is offensive coordinator number 2 under Coach Bullis that has scrapped that aspect of the previous championship teams. Maybe, just maybe, motion and shifting gives UWW the numerical advantage every now and then, along w the possibility of the slightest alignment confusion by the D, and maybe, just maybe, UWW running backs might have just a slightly greater chance of breaking longer runs.

Why doesn't the offense use more shorter passing routes like slants, crossing, outs and tight end routes? Again, all plays used very effectively two OC's ago.

Bombs are fun, but completion percentage is low and once UWW faces more athletic defensive backs, the percentage will get lower.

Why doesn't UWW employ the hurry-up offense more consistently?

After UWO I'll probably have more.

This team is far from perfect. It's ok to voice some concerns, and ask questions why things are done a certain way. I don't blame emma.

I will say that if the Hawks impress this weekend*, my confidence in them will skyrocket. I'm just nervous (surprise, surprise) on how Cole will hold up against a legit defense. As far as his decision making, accuracy, play calling, and when to take risks/play it save, etc...

*I'm in desperate need of a quality win from one of my sports teams after a brutal past couple of days.

[bleedpurple]

Emma,

On my never ending quest to figure out how your brain works, I have a serious question for you.  If Alex Peete had broken off 4 or 5 runs of 20 or more yards so far this year, which UW-W "shortcoming" would you be focused on right now?

In no particular order:
Why is there no motion or pre-snap shifts by the O? This is offensive coordinator number 2 under Coach Bullis that has scrapped that aspect of the previous championship teams. Maybe, just maybe, motion and shifting gives UWW the numerical advantage every now and then, along w the possibility of the slightest alignment confusion by the D, and maybe, just maybe, UWW running backs might have just a slightly greater chance of breaking longer runs.

Why doesn't the offense use more shorter passing routes like slants, crossing, outs and tight end routes? Again, all plays used very effectively two OC's ago.

Bombs are fun, but completion percentage is low and once UWW faces more athletic defensive backs, the percentage will get lower.

Why doesn't UWW employ the hurry-up offense more consistently?

After UWO I'll probably have more.

This team is far from perfect. It's ok to voice some concerns, and ask questions why things are done a certain way. I don't blame emma.

Of course you don't. It's all good. Emma is just trying to help. I think the answer to every one of his questions is the same. It's because no one is as smart as he is. I'm just trying to read his posts, absorb as much as I can, and try to keep up. I'll enjoy the fact we are 4-0 and you guys can evaluate, wring your hands, and ask questions that no one on a message board can or will answer.  We all enjoy football differently, just try to have fun among all your angst.

[bleedpurple]

Titans/Warhawks: These teams have split the last 6 match-ups. I don't think the game will look like last year's when the teams combined for 57 points. These are probably the two best defenses in the conference and two of the best in the country. Like it does most years, this game will come down to who wins the battle in the trenches and, likely, who protects the football better. The Titans offense has improved. Radavich looks more comfortable and has been efficient. The running game has been average (3.6 ypc), but it looked better last week. Perhaps they are settling in. This team still doesn't have the "wow" athletes that will win one-on-one battles every play. This team will need to move the ball with a methodical, controlled approach. I don't know if they can do that with any consistency against the Warhawks, but I don't think the Titans will waver from their game plan. I think they will be happy to punt the ball and rely on their defense, rather than try to be something they're not at this point. I think it will be Coach Cerroni's goal to make this a four-quarter game and try to steal a win in the 4th quarter. I think the Warhawks are more talented. Last year was the first time I really thought the Titans had more talent on the field than the Warhawks, and that resulted in a 37-point offensive effort for the Titans. I don't think that will happen this time. However, that being said, I have faith in the Titan coaching staff. They won't lose this game because they got outcoached. The Titans will be prepared and ready. This game very well could come down to the kicking game, and both teams have been solid. This should be a 17-14 game one way or the other. This is the Titans fifth road trip of the season. I expect a huge crowd of Warhawk faithful. The home field advantage could prove to be the difference. I can't wait to watch it ... oh wait, my daughter has her conference tennis meet. 

Good post! I appreciate your reasoned analysis.

One factual correction. Before last year, UW-W had won four of the previous 5 meeting with the Titans.  So in the last 6 meetings, UW-0 has won 2 and UW-W has won 4.  Still a very good record against us and one that no other team in the nation, including Mount Union, can claim.

[UWO Titan 78]

Titans/Warhawks: These teams have split the last 6 match-ups. I don't think the game will look like last year's when the teams combined for 57 points. These are probably the two best defenses in the conference and two of the best in the country. Like it does most years, this game will come down to who wins the battle in the trenches and, likely, who protects the football better. The Titans offense has improved. Radavich looks more comfortable and has been efficient. The running game has been average (3.6 ypc), but it looked better last week. Perhaps they are settling in. This team still doesn't have the "wow" athletes that will win one-on-one battles every play. This team will need to move the ball with a methodical, controlled approach. I don't know if they can do that with any consistency against the Warhawks, but I don't think the Titans will waver from their game plan. I think they will be happy to punt the ball and rely on their defense, rather than try to be something they're not at this point. I think it will be Coach Cerroni's goal to make this a four-quarter game and try to steal a win in the 4th quarter. I think the Warhawks are more talented. Last year was the first time I really thought the Titans had more talent on the field than the Warhawks, and that resulted in a 37-point offensive effort for the Titans. I don't think that will happen this time. However, that being said, I have faith in the Titan coaching staff. They won't lose this game because they got outcoached. The Titans will be prepared and ready. This game very well could come down to the kicking game, and both teams have been solid. This should be a 17-14 game one way or the other. This is the Titans fifth road trip of the season. I expect a huge crowd of Warhawk faithful. The home field advantage could prove to be the difference. I can't wait to watch it ... oh wait, my daughter has her conference tennis meet. 

Good post! I appreciate your reasoned analysis.

One factual correction. Before last year, UW-W had won four of the previous 5 meeting with the Titans.  So in the last 6 meetings, UW-0 has won 2 and UW-W has won 4.  Still a very good record against us and one that no other team in the nation, including Mount Union, can claim.

I should have been more clear. I meant to say split the last 6 regular season match-ups. I wasn't including the 2015 playoff game that Whitewater won (often times when two evenly matched teams will play in the same season, they will split the games). I think the last 6 regular season games went this way:
2017: 37-20 Oshkosh
2016: 17-14 Whitewater
2015: 10-7 Oshkosh
2014: 24-7 Whitewater
2013: 17-14 Whitewater
2012: 28-13 Oshkosh

In any event, I would expect an even match-up come Saturday.

[badgerwarhawk]

Emma,

On my never ending quest to figure out how your brain works, I have a serious question for you.  If Alex Peete had broken off 4 or 5 runs of 20 or more yards so far this year, which UW-W "shortcoming" would you be focused on right now?

In no particular order:
Why is there no motion or pre-snap shifts by the O? This is offensive coordinator number 2 under Coach Bullis that has scrapped that aspect of the previous championship teams. Maybe, just maybe, motion and shifting gives UWW the numerical advantage every now and then, along w the possibility of the slightest alignment confusion by the D, and maybe, just maybe, UWW running backs might have just a slightly greater chance of breaking longer runs.

Why doesn’t the offense use more shorter passing routes like slants, crossing, outs and tight end routes? Again, all plays used very effectively two OC’s ago.

Bombs are fun, but completion percentage is low and once UWW faces more athletic defensive backs, the percentage will get lower.

Why doesn’t UWW employ the hurry-up offense more consistently?

After UWO I’ll probably have more.

This team is far from perfect. It's ok to voice some concerns, and ask questions why things are done a certain way. I don't blame emma.

I will say that if the Hawks impress this weekend*, my confidence in them will skyrocket. I'm just nervous (surprise, surprise) on how Cole will hold up against a legit defense. As far as his decision making, accuracy, play calling, and when to take risks/play it save, etc...

*I'm in desperate need of a quality win from one of my sports teams after a brutal past couple of days.

LaCrosse's defense was legit?