FB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[MiacMan]

I think DubDub gets derailed by Johnny or Tommy. This isn't the WIAC's year, IMO, on the national stage.

I have not seen either the Johnny or Tommy play, so I admit my complete bias. That said, I'll take UWW's defense and somewhat vanilla offense vs any team that gives up the yardage and turnovers those two did.

I do agree in general the WIAC seems down this year. UWW is doing what it should be doing, giving up only 7 points in its first 3 WIAC games.

Having seen both (all three) play, here's my take. In good weather the Johnnies will be formidable. In normal late November/early December weather, the less than potent Johnnie running game is likely to hurt them. The Tommies would present a tougher matchup in that scenario due to their excellent running game..

The offensive yardage in that game was not indicative of both team's defensive capabilities. It was just one of those odd games where; A) the Johnnies gave up a few BIG run plays. B)The Johnnies tailored an offense for the consttant blitz defense of the Tommies, and Erdman had a spectacular game, and Gillach torched the defense with his prowess. If they played again, it might be a 21 - 17 type game. Look at their overall performance, and not just one weird game.

Interested to see how SJU's and UST's defense perform against another elite program. Unfortunately, they won't see one again till the playoffs. So we won't know if this was an anomaly as retagent suggests, or if emma has a point.

With that being said, I'll just leave this here....

UST's Josh Parks has torched every defense he's faced this season, including SJU's. Averaging nearly 10 yards per carry! However against a WIAC school, 2-win UWEC, he was held to 67 yards on 17 carries (3.9 per). Not sure what that means, just interesting.

It means he only played in the first half and never popped a long run.

[WW]

With that being said, I'll just leave this here....

UST's Josh Parks has torched every defense he's faced this season, including SJU's. Averaging nearly 10 yards per carry! However against a WIAC school, 2-win UWEC, he was held to 67 yards on 17 carries (3.9 per). Not sure what that means, just interesting.

I dunno, 02. Parks was about the only thing the Blugolds "stopped" that day. They gained 537 yards and it was 35-0 at halftime.

In looking for further common denominators between UWW and UST/SJU, I may be giving Tommy more credit than they deserve for the C-Moor win (46-7) relative to UWW's (24-6). Statistically similar games, despite what score suggests to be a significantly more dominant outcome vs same opponent.

[02 Warhawk]

I think DubDub gets derailed by Johnny or Tommy. This isn't the WIAC's year, IMO, on the national stage.

I have not seen either the Johnny or Tommy play, so I admit my complete bias. That said, I'll take UWW's defense and somewhat vanilla offense vs any team that gives up the yardage and turnovers those two did.

I do agree in general the WIAC seems down this year. UWW is doing what it should be doing, giving up only 7 points in its first 3 WIAC games.

Having seen both (all three) play, here's my take. In good weather the Johnnies will be formidable. In normal late November/early December weather, the less than potent Johnnie running game is likely to hurt them. The Tommies would present a tougher matchup in that scenario due to their excellent running game..

The offensive yardage in that game was not indicative of both team's defensive capabilities. It was just one of those odd games where; A) the Johnnies gave up a few BIG run plays. B)The Johnnies tailored an offense for the consttant blitz defense of the Tommies, and Erdman had a spectacular game, and Gillach torched the defense with his prowess. If they played again, it might be a 21 - 17 type game. Look at their overall performance, and not just one weird game.

Interested to see how SJU's and UST's defense perform against another elite program. Unfortunately, they won't see one again till the playoffs. So we won't know if this was an anomaly as retagent suggests, or if emma has a point.

With that being said, I'll just leave this here....

UST's Josh Parks has torched every defense he's faced this season, including SJU's. Averaging nearly 10 yards per carry! However against a WIAC school, 2-win UWEC, he was held to 67 yards on 17 carries (3.9 per). Not sure what that means, just interesting.

It means he only played in the first half and never popped a long run.

Still had a lot of chances to get it going (17) against a bad WIAC team.

[02 Warhawk]

With that being said, I'll just leave this here....

UST's Josh Parks has torched every defense he's faced this season, including SJU's. Averaging nearly 10 yards per carry! However against a WIAC school, 2-win UWEC, he was held to 67 yards on 17 carries (3.9 per). Not sure what that means, just interesting.

I dunno, 02. Parks was about the only thing the Blugolds "stopped" that day. They gained 537 yards and it was 35-0 at halftime.

In looking for further common denominators between UWW and UST/SJU, I may be giving Tommy more credit than they deserve for the C-Moor win (46-7) relative to UWW's (24-6). Statistically similar games, despite what score suggests to be a significantly more dominant outcome vs same opponent.

I'm not at all comparing UWW to UST and SJU.

[emma17]

With that being said, I'll just leave this here....

UST's Josh Parks has torched every defense he's faced this season, including SJU's. Averaging nearly 10 yards per carry! However against a WIAC school, 2-win UWEC, he was held to 67 yards on 17 carries (3.9 per). Not sure what that means, just interesting.

I dunno, 02. Parks was about the only thing the Blugolds "stopped" that day. They gained 537 yards and it was 35-0 at halftime.

In looking for further common denominators between UWW and UST/SJU, I may be giving Tommy more credit than they deserve for the C-Moor win (46-7) relative to UWW's (24-6). Statistically similar games, despite what score suggests to be a significantly more dominant outcome vs same opponent.

46-7 because UWW softened them up in advance. Like the second person to twist off the lid on a pickle jar gets all the credit.

[retagent]

FWIW. I think Bethel is better than Concordia. It was also early in the season which could mean that UWW was still working things out, UST had a lot of returning starters, so they may have been ahead in those terms.

UST has yet to play Bethel. SJU still has Concordia and Thomas More on their schedule.

[bleedpurple]

As WW pointed out, the statistical comparison of the Concordia games for UWW and UST are really similar. It's pretty hard to point to an edge to either team based on that result.

FWIW:

                    St. Thomas     Concordia
First downs        20                  21
Ave. yds/play      6.0                 3.4
Yds Rush            181                115
Yds Pass             224                118
Total yds            405                233

                      UWW               Concordia
First Downs        21                     12
Ave yds/play      5.6                    3.4
Yds Rush           144                    96
Yds Pass            223                   108
Total Yds           367                   204

A couple of other differences that could account for the variance in final margin:
UW-W had the penalty bugaboo going for them. 11/112 yards. (could be a factor in a UW-W/UST game)
UW-W had two interceptions that bounced off receiver's hands. (not likely to be a factor in a UW-W/UST game)

UST and UW-W likely have very different philosophies as to how to play a second half with a lead. We can debate whether that's good or bad, but it won't be a factor if a UW-W/US-T game is close throughout.

[jamtod]

As WW pointed out, the statistical comparison of the Concordia games for UWW and UST are really similar. It's pretty hard to point to an edge to either team based on that result.

FWIW:

                    St. Thomas     Concordia
First downs        20                  21
Ave. yds/play      6.0                 3.4
Yds Rush            181                115
Yds Pass             224                118
Total yds            405                233

                      UWW               Concordia
First Downs        21                     12
Ave yds/play      5.6                    3.4
Yds Rush           144                    96
Yds Pass            223                   108
Total Yds           367                   204

A couple of other differences that could account for the variance in final margin:
UW-W had the penalty bugaboo going for them. 11/112 yards. (could be a factor in a UW-W/UST game)
UW-W had two interceptions that bounced off receiver's hands. (not likely to be a factor in a UW-W/UST game)

UST and UW-W likely have very different philosophies as to how to play a second half with a lead. We can debate whether that's good or bad, but it won't be a factor if a UW-W/US-T game is close throughout.

This probably isn't a meaningful comparison unless you really dig into how long each team played its starters, etc.  Also a factor that C-MH played at UW-W while UST went to C-MH, which mostly has an impact on how many bench players each team can bring.

Nearly the entirety of UST's points came in the 1st half. In the second half, we basically ran the ball to grind out the clock. The one TD in the 3Q was a 65 yard drive, 52 on the ground and 13 in the air. Stats are also heavily impacted by starting field position due to turnovers caused (including a fumble recovery TD).

[USTBench]

I know looking at common opponents is the only real barometer in evaluating these teams, but I think when we're talking SJU, UST and UWW, it's kind of like comparing an orange to a bicycle and an orangutan.

I think we all know SJU/UWW/UST are the top 3 teams in the region. SJU beat UST handily so they get the nod at #1, I'd say UWW being #2 is a no-brainer as they're undefeated, and someone would really have to make a compelling argument to me to even consider UST being anything less than #3.

But comparing UST's game against Concordia to UWW's game against Concordia is kind of silly, especially when both of those games were played relatively early in the season. Likewise, I didn't walk away from the SJU/UST game thinking that if those two teams played 10 times SJU would win all 10. It's hard to be competitive against anyone when you turn the ball over six times. Did SJU have something to do with that? Sure. But I look at like like the UWO quarterfinal game a few years ago, if UST takes care of the ball, it's a different game. UST could have been within 4 or 5 of SJU with 11 minutes to go in the 4th quarter and a ton of momentum, but they fumbled on the 1 yard line and SJU takes it to the house. On the flip side, if SJU wasn't stopped on their first drive of the game and had taken advantage of a few more turnovers, it could have been a 40 point blow out.

I think for the first time in a long time, there's three teams in the west region that can make the Stagg Bowl and that's really exciting to think about. I just hope UST takes care of business the rest of the way and we get to see some of these match-ups in November/December.

[WW]

As WW pointed out, the statistical comparison of the Concordia games for UWW and UST are really similar. It's pretty hard to point to an edge to either team based on that result.

FWIW:

                    St. Thomas     Concordia
First downs        20                  21
Ave. yds/play      6.0                 3.4
Yds Rush            181                115
Yds Pass             224                118
Total yds            405                233

                      UWW               Concordia
First Downs        21                     12
Ave yds/play      5.6                    3.4
Yds Rush           144                    96
Yds Pass            223                   108
Total Yds           367                   204

A couple of other differences that could account for the variance in final margin:
UW-W had the penalty bugaboo going for them. 11/112 yards. (could be a factor in a UW-W/UST game)
UW-W had two interceptions that bounced off receiver's hands. (not likely to be a factor in a UW-W/UST game)

UST and UW-W likely have very different philosophies as to how to play a second half with a lead. We can debate whether that's good or bad, but it won't be a factor if a UW-W/US-T game is close throughout.

This probably isn't a meaningful comparison unless you really dig into how long each team played its starters, etc.  Also a factor that C-MH played at UW-W while UST went to C-MH, which mostly has an impact on how many bench players each team can bring.

Nearly the entirety of UST's points came in the 1st half. In the second half, we basically ran the ball to grind out the clock. The one TD in the 3Q was a 65 yard drive, 52 on the ground and 13 in the air. Stats are also heavily impacted by starting field position due to turnovers caused (including a fumble recovery TD).

True, but common opponents is about as meaningful a comparison as you can get, outside of when they actually play each other. Just saying I rescind my earlier judgement (based in part on results vs a common opponent) that UWW "gets derailed" by UST or SJU and will consider further evidence.

In any case, a DubDub-Tommy or Johnny matchup (and maybe both) late November/early December could, quite possibly, be awesome.

[02 Warhawk]

I think we all know SJU/UWW/UST are the top 3 teams in the region. SJU beat UST handily so they get the nod at #1, I'd say UWW being #2 is a no-brainer as they're undefeated, and someone would really have to make a compelling argument to me to even consider UST being anything less than #3.

This could very well be.

But why not...

SJU UWW beat UST UWO handily so they get the nod at #1, I'd say UWW SJU being #2 is a no-brainer as they're undefeated.

SOS so far:
3rd - UWW
8th - UWO
11th - SJU
136th - UST

[jamtod]

As WW pointed out, the statistical comparison of the Concordia games for UWW and UST are really similar. It's pretty hard to point to an edge to either team based on that result.

FWIW:

                    St. Thomas     Concordia
First downs        20                  21
Ave. yds/play      6.0                 3.4
Yds Rush            181                115
Yds Pass             224                118
Total yds            405                233

                      UWW               Concordia
First Downs        21                     12
Ave yds/play      5.6                    3.4
Yds Rush           144                    96
Yds Pass            223                   108
Total Yds           367                   204

A couple of other differences that could account for the variance in final margin:
UW-W had the penalty bugaboo going for them. 11/112 yards. (could be a factor in a UW-W/UST game)
UW-W had two interceptions that bounced off receiver's hands. (not likely to be a factor in a UW-W/UST game)

UST and UW-W likely have very different philosophies as to how to play a second half with a lead. We can debate whether that's good or bad, but it won't be a factor if a UW-W/US-T game is close throughout.

This probably isn't a meaningful comparison unless you really dig into how long each team played its starters, etc.  Also a factor that C-MH played at UW-W while UST went to C-MH, which mostly has an impact on how many bench players each team can bring.

Nearly the entirety of UST's points came in the 1st half. In the second half, we basically ran the ball to grind out the clock. The one TD in the 3Q was a 65 yard drive, 52 on the ground and 13 in the air. Stats are also heavily impacted by starting field position due to turnovers caused (including a fumble recovery TD).

True, but common opponents is about as meaningful a comparison as you can get, outside of when they actually play each other. Just saying I rescind my earlier judgement (based in part on results vs a common opponent) that UWW "gets derailed" by UST or SJU and will consider further evidence.

In any case, a DubDub-Tommy or Johnny matchup (and maybe both) late November/early December could, quite possibly, be awesome.

No doubt. I think it would be a great matchup and we do the best we can to make a meaningful comparison, I'm just throwing a few more factors that suggest that a statistical comparison really isn't all that meaningful.

And on the turnover consideration, on one hand, you can ignore them and say "We would have beaten Oshkosh if we'd turned the ball over 1 fewer time" and statistically in some ways, turnovers are somewhat of a non-repeatable anomaly. But it's also true that often those turnovers are forced and the defense has as much bearing on them as the offense/QB/RB fumbling or throwing the interception.

[USTBench]

I think we all know SJU/UWW/UST are the top 3 teams in the region. SJU beat UST handily so they get the nod at #1, I'd say UWW being #2 is a no-brainer as they're undefeated, and someone would really have to make a compelling argument to me to even consider UST being anything less than #3.

This could very well be.

But why not...

SJU UWW beat UST UWO handily so they get the nod at #1, I'd say UWW SJU being #2 is a no-brainer as they're undefeated.

SOS so far:
3rd - UWW
8th - UWO
11th - SJU
136th - UST

UWO is a two-loss team with an anemic offense who only mustered up 0 points against UWW and 3 points against an upstart football program (who is a paper tiger as far as DII goes, so, no need to point out Davenport's record). While, UWO is a decent football team, a win over a team that can't score against a quality defense doesn't do as much for me as SJU putting 40 (33 points offensively) on one of the best defenses in the country.

Now, stop making me defend SJU's ranking before I vomit.

[emma17]

Recognizing there is a playoffs that will sort all this out, the current rankings, both D3 and the Fans, are fun to talk about.
I don't get the auto assumption that StJ should be #1, vaulting ahead of UWW, based on their victory over StT. It was a big win, even a little bigger than UWW's win over UWO. But separating the emotion from the Johnny victory, the numbers don't suggest StJ would likely prevail vs UWW.  UWW's season statistics and the specific game stats vs UWO suggest a championship level defense. Unless defense just isn't viewed as necessary to winning as maybe it used to be, giving up 600 yards just doesn't get a team to #1 imo. On top of it, if the turnovers StT had truly are viewed as a non-repeatable anomaly, then StJ would require a whole lot of good fortune to actually hold serve as a #1.

[02 Warhawk]

I think we all know SJU/UWW/UST are the top 3 teams in the region. SJU beat UST handily so they get the nod at #1, I'd say UWW being #2 is a no-brainer as they're undefeated, and someone would really have to make a compelling argument to me to even consider UST being anything less than #3.

This could very well be.

But why not...

SJU UWW beat UST UWO handily so they get the nod at #1, I'd say UWW SJU being #2 is a no-brainer as they're undefeated.

SOS so far:
3rd - UWW
8th - UWO
11th - SJU
136th - UST

UWO is a two-loss team with an anemic offense who only mustered up 0 points against UWW and 3 points against an upstart football program (who is a paper tiger as far as DII goes, so, no need to point out Davenport's record). While, UWO is a decent football team, a win over a team that can't score against a quality defense doesn't do as much for me as SJU putting 40 (33 points offensively) on one of the best defenses in the country.

Now, stop making me defend SJU's ranking before I vomit.

I would pump the breaks on that a little. SJU is the only team you've played that's currently over .500, and UST's passing defense was torched in the process.