FB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[OzJohnnie]

What would you propose they go by, within the criteria, that might put SJU ahead of UWW at this point?

SJU's two victories over RRO's are against RRO's collectively ranked higher than UWW's victories over RRO's. Their victories over common opponents are basically a wash, but if you wanted to split hairs, SJU's cummulative margin of victory is greater.

UWW's SOS is only 1.8% better than SJU's, while SJU's margin of victory advantage over common opponents is 14.6% greater that UWW's.  Additionally, both of SJU's current RRO's are higher in the ranking that UWW's and a full four positions higher on average.  The committee is splitting hairs far more finely than you are, retagent.

But with two week's to go, RRO still to sort itself out and the Johnnies finishing with a quality out-of-conference opponent in the last week I think every way you cut the criteria the rankings will fall SJU's way (knocking on wood that they continue the increasing performance trajectory they have set this season and take care of business these last two weeks).

[emma17]

I don't know if you're pulling my leg or not, but do you think the committee has done a deep dive into Offensive and Defensive stats, who those stats were garnered against, and did a comparison between a defense allowing more/less yards that their opponents average offense. Or offensive stats against a specific team's average defense. I've got a Time Share in Hades to sell you.

A deep dive? No. Is it in the realm of possibility they are aware of the 600+ yards and 8 yds per rush given up against St Thomas in one of the biggest games of the year in D3? I'd say yes. It's as reasonable as any other theory to explain why the Johnnies' stronger RRO value and cumulative margin of victory aren't carrying the day for St. John's.

[Brad]

I have seen both teams play. Whitewater would win by 10 I would say. Not trying to make anyone mad, I have no horse in the race. Whitewater is legit good. One of the best teams they have had this decade

[retagent]

Not mad, just question your subjective opinion. Against whom did you see both teams play? I have seen both teams play, and while being impressed with UWW, I can't say who would win. Much would depend on the conditions of play. Injury status, and venue. St John;s has surprised me this year, and has exceeded my expectations. We may have the chance to see, but I still think objective criteria favors SJU slightly.

[OzJohnnie]

Not mad, just question your subjective opinion. Against whom did you see both teams play? I have seen both teams play, and while being impressed with UWW, I can't say who would win. Much would depend on the conditions of play. Injury status, and venue. St John;s has surprised me this year, and has exceeded my expectations. We may have the chance to see, but I still think objective criteria favors SJU slightly.

Massey's prediction tool puts it at near dead even in a neutral venue matchup. In a clash between these two sides it's the home team that gets all the advantage.

[02 Warhawk]

Wow. A lot of butt hurting from SJU fans here that UWW is ranked higher than SJU in the regional ranks

[bleedpurple]

Not mad, just question your subjective opinion. Against whom did you see both teams play? I have seen both teams play, and while being impressed with UWW, I can't say who would win. Much would depend on the conditions of play. Injury status, and venue. St John;s has surprised me this year, and has excheeded my expectations. We may have the chance to see, but I still think objective criteria favors SJU slightly.

Massey's prediction tool puts it at near dead even in a neutral venue matchup. In a clash between these two sides it's the home team that gets all the advantage.

How did I know that Massey has UW-W winning on a neutral field just by the way you worded your post? 
I strongly suspect that had Massey picked St. John's in a close game on a neutral field, you would have listed the score. But since that wasn't the case, you went with "near dead even". 

No spin zone Massey "Most Likely" results:

Neutral Site:
Johnnies 14
Warhawks 16

At St. John's
Johnnies 17
Warhawks 14

At UW-W
Warhawks 17
Johnnies 14

I'll go with Brad. I doubt Massey has seen either team play. 

[OzJohnnie]

How did I know that Massey has UW-W winning on a neutral field just by the way you worded your post? 
I strongly suspect that had Massey picked St. John's in a close game on a neutral field, you would have listed the score. But since that wasn't the case, you went with "near dead even". 

No spin zone Massey "Most Likely" results:

Neutral Site:
Johnnies 14
Warhawks 16

At St. John's
Johnnies 17
Warhawks 14

At UW-W
Warhawks 17
Johnnies 14

I'll go with Brad. I doubt Massey has seen either team play. 

How did I know your "no spin zone" results were dripping in spin?  Just by the way you worded your post.

Neutral venue:
SJU 47%, UWW 53%

@ SJU:
SJU 59%, UWW 42%

@UWW:
SJU 41%, UWW 59%


Now that posters can see who cherry picks data and who doesn't, they can judge for themselves whether "near dead even in a neutral venue matchup. In a clash between these two sides it's the home team that gets all the advantage." is a fair characterization.

I think the evidence speaks for itself, bleedpurple, and it's clear who presented a more trustworthy impression of Massey's tool.  Best you stick with brad's observations.  I don't think you can trust your own.

[BoBo]

In a perfect world we would have posters from every school on here and have great discussions. I am from Eau Claire and if you can not tell my rooting interest are for the west side of the state. I follow UWEC, UW-Stout and UWRF close. I am hoping that sometime in the next 5 years that the west side of the state can catch up with the east side. Don't be scared to post on here because their is a whitewater bias at times, as there should be. It would be great to have in depth discussions about games other than warhawk games, and that is what I am trying to bring. I have been around the league for 20 years and love following these kids through recruitment all the way to watching them Saturday's. We should be recruiting more poster rather than scaring them away!

Great post, Brad.  Another subject I would like to here a discussion about would be the WW/Stout football broadcast.  I understand it is Pete Knutson for the Stout home games.  Did not hear the broadcast but have listened to Pete do Menomonie HS, EC Express baseball and Stout football and basketball.  He is a home fan for sure but have always thought he was a first rate play be play guy.

FWIW, I thought the guy called an excellent game, probably the best play by play guy I've heard for a D3 game in a long time. He was well prepared & insightful. He did a great job playing both roles in the booth...that is up until he blew his lid at the final whistle. I think it was built up frustration at the way UWW made things look so easy most of the afternoon, while Stout had to scrape and claw their way for everything - and then made mistake after mistake to stymie their progress. He was very good.  That young QB is going to be very good in the future too...he's pretty good right now in fact.

[bleedpurple]

How did I know that Massey has UW-W winning on a neutral field just by the way you worded your post? 
I strongly suspect that had Massey picked St. John's in a close game on a neutral field, you would have listed the score. But since that wasn't the case, you went with "near dead even". 

No spin zone Massey "Most Likely" results:

Neutral Site:
Johnnies 14
Warhawks 16

At St. John's
Johnnies 17
Warhawks 14

At UW-W
Warhawks 17
Johnnies 14

I'll go with Brad. I doubt Massey has seen either team play. 

How did I know your "no spin zone" results were dripping in spin?  Just by the way you worded your post.

Neutral venue:
SJU 47%, UWW 53%

@ SJU:
SJU 59%, UWW 42%

@UWW:
SJU 41%, UWW 59%


Now that posters can see who cherry picks data and who doesn't, they can judge for themselves whether "near dead even in a neutral venue matchup. In a clash between these two sides it's the home team that gets all the advantage." is a fair characterization.

I think the evidence speaks for itself, bleedpurple, and it's clear who presented a more trustworthy impression of Massey's tool.  Best you stick with brad's observations.  I don't think you can trust your own.

Boy, we are going after each other pretty good! I wonder what will happen if UW-W and the Johnnies actually PLAY each other! 

[Mr. Ypsi]

How did I know that Massey has UW-W winning on a neutral field just by the way you worded your post? 
I strongly suspect that had Massey picked St. John's in a close game on a neutral field, you would have listed the score. But since that wasn't the case, you went with "near dead even". 

No spin zone Massey "Most Likely" results:

Neutral Site:
Johnnies 14
Warhawks 16

At St. John's
Johnnies 17
Warhawks 14

At UW-W
Warhawks 17
Johnnies 14

I'll go with Brad. I doubt Massey has seen either team play. 

How did I know your "no spin zone" results were dripping in spin?  Just by the way you worded your post.

Neutral venue:
SJU 47%, UWW 53%

@ SJU:
SJU 59%, UWW 42%

@UWW:
SJU 41%, UWW 59%


Now that posters can see who cherry picks data and who doesn't, they can judge for themselves whether "near dead even in a neutral venue matchup. In a clash between these two sides it's the home team that gets all the advantage." is a fair characterization.

I think the evidence speaks for itself, bleedpurple, and it's clear who presented a more trustworthy impression of Massey's tool.  Best you stick with brad's observations.  I don't think you can trust your own.

Boy, we are going after each other pretty good! I wonder what will happen if UW-W and the Johnnies actually PLAY each other! 

Well, barring upsets (regular season or in the playoffs), it's looking more and more likely that you WILL meet up in the third round as the overall #4 and #5 (in whichever order) seeds!

[OzJohnnie]

Well, as aging farts who's best football days are long, long behind us this is the best we've got.  It ain't personal; it's just football.

[bleedpurple]

Well, as aging farts who's best football days are long, long behind us this is the best we've got.  It ain't personal; it's just football.

To that I can toast and call it a day!  Good night Johnboy.

[MiacMan]

How did I know that Massey has UW-W winning on a neutral field just by the way you worded your post? 
I strongly suspect that had Massey picked St. John's in a close game on a neutral field, you would have listed the score. But since that wasn't the case, you went with "near dead even". 

No spin zone Massey "Most Likely" results:

Neutral Site:
Johnnies 14
Warhawks 16

At St. John's
Johnnies 17
Warhawks 14

At UW-W
Warhawks 17
Johnnies 14

I'll go with Brad. I doubt Massey has seen either team play. 

How did I know your "no spin zone" results were dripping in spin?  Just by the way you worded your post.

Neutral venue:
SJU 47%, UWW 53%

@ SJU:
SJU 59%, UWW 42%

@UWW:
SJU 41%, UWW 59%


Now that posters can see who cherry picks data and who doesn't, they can judge for themselves whether "near dead even in a neutral venue matchup. In a clash between these two sides it's the home team that gets all the advantage." is a fair characterization.

I think the evidence speaks for itself, bleedpurple, and it's clear who presented a more trustworthy impression of Massey's tool.  Best you stick with brad's observations.  I don't think you can trust your own.

Boy, we are going after each other pretty good! I wonder what will happen if UW-W and the Johnnies actually PLAY each other! 

Well, barring upsets (regular season or in the playoffs), it's looking more and more likely that you WILL meet up in the third round as the overall #4 and #5 (in whichever order) seeds!

Probably not. Likely, UST will beat one of you before you get to each other. 

[DuffMan]

Wow. A lot of butt hurting from SJU fans here that UWW is ranked higher than SJU in the regional ranks

2 people = "a lot of butt hurting"?

It's still early, and it's quite obvious that the committee sees UWW and SJU as pretty even right now.  They had to give the nod to someone.  It doesn't really bother me that UWW got it.  It'll be interesting how it plays out in the final regular season games.  The #1 seed is nice, but the #2 seed isn't bad, either.

As far as Brad's pick of UWW over SJU, I would be shocked to see a WIAC supporter ever give a nod to the MIAC team.  WIAC pride is strong.  The cold, hard fact is that both teams are darn good.  You can give all the credence you want to SJU giving up 600 yards to U$T, but the fact of the matter is they still won the game by 20 points and put up 40 points against a team that hadn't given up that many points in years.

Good luck to UWW in their remaining games.  SJU hasn't fared too well with them in our latest meetings, but if it should happen in 2018, it'll be fun.  And I hope it's at SJU.