FB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[USee]

I watch the highlights of that ncc game. The cardinals had two huge collapses on defense that left bethel's WR uncovered for two easy TDS. If NCC's DBs were more disciplined we would be playing them tomorrow and not Bethel.

There's a context to those collapses. NCC knew they could only stop the run by committing safeties into the box. They contained Bethel's running game in the first half, but at the expense of a long TD. In the second half, they could no longer hold up against the run, which made the PAP game all the more lethal. It wasn't just a lack of discipline for NCC's DB's, they were throwing themselves at the line to stop the bleeding up front.

Ironically, some CCIW posters suggested the easy solution to stopping Bethel was just putting 8 in the box.

This is a pretty big misrepresentation of that discussion.

[hazzben]

fwiw, their common opponent, UWRF, grounded and pounded UWW (185 yds not counting sacks) more effectively than they did vs Bethel (89 yds). Of course, UWW beat UWRF 44-7, while Bethel only managed a 32-27 win. Each put up big ground games vs UWRF.

I'm not sure how much we can ascertain from either the UWRF or Concordia common opponent results.

Cobbers vs UWW was really early. And it's a really quirky offense if you don't see it year in and year out.

Bethel vs. UWRF - Roste was hurt and didn't play much of the game. Also a Frosh QB in his first start, still getting his 'sea legs' with the offense. This team has a grown a ton since then. (yes, as I'm sure UWW has since the Cobber game)

I think the winner may be favored against SJU next week, but not UMHB. The latter seems like another brutally physical affair, and I think the attrition might be too much for whichever team emerges from this week. But here's to hoping I'm wrong on that count!

[hazzben]

I watch the highlights of that ncc game. The cardinals had two huge collapses on defense that left bethel's WR uncovered for two easy TDS. If NCC's DBs were more disciplined we would be playing them tomorrow and not Bethel.

There's a context to those collapses. NCC knew they could only stop the run by committing safeties into the box. They contained Bethel's running game in the first half, but at the expense of a long TD. In the second half, they could no longer hold up against the run, which made the PAP game all the more lethal. It wasn't just a lack of discipline for NCC's DB's, they were throwing themselves at the line to stop the bleeding up front.

Ironically, some CCIW posters suggested the easy solution to stopping Bethel was just putting 8 in the box.

This is a pretty big misrepresentation of that discussion.

I actually wasn't referring to you USee. And the better description would have been "some CCIW posters suggested the simple solution to stopping Bethel was just putting 8 in the box." I think the assumption was that Bethel couldn't throw to save our life. So just bring a safety down into the box, take away the run, there you have it. I tried to make the point that Bethel's passing game was being overlooked, and that bringing extra help into the box was at your own detriment, and would likely be exploited. That proved absolutely correct.

For your part, you called the battle at the LOS and said that if NCC couldn't win up front, it would be a Bethel victory. I didn't get the sense you over-simplified the pass game (at least not as much as some). But for the record, you did predict a 5-7 pt NCC win if I remember correctly.

[02 Warhawk]

I watch the highlights of that ncc game. The cardinals had two huge collapses on defense that left bethel's WR uncovered for two easy TDS. If NCC's DBs were more disciplined we would be playing them tomorrow and not Bethel.

There's a context to those collapses. NCC knew they could only stop the run by committing safeties into the box. They contained Bethel's running game in the first half, but at the expense of a long TD. In the second half, they could no longer hold up against the run, which made the PAP game all the more lethal. It wasn't just a lack of discipline for NCC's DB's, they were throwing themselves at the line to stop the bleeding up front.

Ironically, some CCIW posters suggested the easy solution to stopping Bethel was just putting 8 in the box. I cautioned against that before the game last week. Yes, Bethel will line up with two TE's and two RB's, but they also love to run the ball out of an empty set with Roste and with 3 WR sets as well. That puts stress on you to cover in space, stay sound in your pass coverage, and still stop the run without being able to bring in extra hats.

My assumption is UWW will hold up better with their typical 7 man front than NCC did. I also don't think UWW is as explosive throwing as NCC, but they should have a better running game. That in turn, might actually lead to bigger pass plays. NCC's issue was that we made them one dimensional and then Kilgroe & Co just pinned their ears back and came after Rutter.

No rocket science to this game. The LOS and turnovers decide it. If both teams are a match up front and play mistake free football, we should be in for a brutally hard fought football game.

The first TD Bethel scored it was first and 10, NCC had eight guys in the box, but also had a safety back where the first down was (a good 5 yards behind the box). Bethel QB faked the handoff and rolled to his right like he was going to run. The safety playing deep was caught looking in the backfield and abandoned his post...leaving a wide open receiver for a TD. Well designed play, very bad read for the safety who was suppose NCC's last line of defense on that play. He let two WRs go by him. Bethel QB had his choice on who to throw a TD to.

On the second TD I was referring to, where you guys put the game away, NCC only had 7 guys in the box. The guy covering the slot receiver was (once again caught looking in the backfield) and lost track of his assignment and ended up getting burnt....really bad.

Hopefully UWW's secondary will learn from NCC's mistakes on film.

[hazzben]

Right, my point is you put 8 in the box, and/or have safeties losing eye discipline and staring into the backfield on PAP when you're overcommitted to stopping the run. Or can't stop the run.

The second one was a blown coverage by the safety. But the context is two back to back 14 play drives where Bethel ran it down NCC's throat. So the safety looks like the doofus, but it's because he's learned his front 7 can't hold up against the run on their own.

The story of the game was much more complex than NCC getting beat on two deep passing plays. They got beat deep because in the first half they were overcommitted to stopping the run and in the second half because they couldn't stop the run.

[02 Warhawk]

Right, my point is you put 8 in the box, and/or have safeties losing eye discipline and staring into the backfield on PAP when you're overcommitted to stopping the run. Or can't stop the run.

The second one was a blown coverage by the safety. But the context is two back to back 14 play drives where Bethel ran it down NCC's throat. So the safety looks like the doofus, but it's because he's learned his front 7 can't hold up against the run on their own.

The story of the game was much more complex than NCC getting beat on two deep passing plays. They got beat deep because in the first half they were overcommitted to stopping the run and in the second half because they couldn't stop the run.

Agree with that 100%

[USee]

I watch the highlights of that ncc game. The cardinals had two huge collapses on defense that left bethel's WR uncovered for two easy TDS. If NCC's DBs were more disciplined we would be playing them tomorrow and not Bethel.

There's a context to those collapses. NCC knew they could only stop the run by committing safeties into the box. They contained Bethel's running game in the first half, but at the expense of a long TD. In the second half, they could no longer hold up against the run, which made the PAP game all the more lethal. It wasn't just a lack of discipline for NCC's DB's, they were throwing themselves at the line to stop the bleeding up front.

Ironically, some CCIW posters suggested the easy solution to stopping Bethel was just putting 8 in the box.

This is a pretty big misrepresentation of that discussion.

But for the record, you did predict a 5-7 pt NCC win if I remember correctly.

No, I didn't. I said NCC was a 5-7 pt favorite at home, which they were, and would be again if the two teams played this week. I believe HansenRatings had them as a 5.5 pt favorite.

[USee]

Right, my point is you put 8 in the box, and/or have safeties losing eye discipline and staring into the backfield on PAP when you're overcommitted to stopping the run. Or can't stop the run.

The second one was a blown coverage by the safety. But the context is two back to back 14 play drives where Bethel ran it down NCC's throat. So the safety looks like the doofus, but it's because he's learned his front 7 can't hold up against the run on their own.

The story of the game was much more complex than NCC getting beat on two deep passing plays. They got beat deep because in the first half they were overcommitted to stopping the run and in the second half because they couldn't stop the run.

They got beat deep because their DB's weren't very good or were inexperienced, which the Bethel coaches would have seen in the Wheaton film when the same guys gave up big run and pass plays with poor technique.

[02 Warhawk]

Kind of surprised Hansen has UWW favorites by 11.3 (with MHB being 10.6 over SJU). I would think the game would be closer than that.

[02 Warhawk]

Right, my point is you put 8 in the box, and/or have safeties losing eye discipline and staring into the backfield on PAP when you're overcommitted to stopping the run. Or can't stop the run.

The second one was a blown coverage by the safety. But the context is two back to back 14 play drives where Bethel ran it down NCC's throat. So the safety looks like the doofus, but it's because he's learned his front 7 can't hold up against the run on their own.

The story of the game was much more complex than NCC getting beat on two deep passing plays. They got beat deep because in the first half they were overcommitted to stopping the run and in the second half because they couldn't stop the run.

They got beat deep because their DB's weren't very good or were inexperienced, which the Bethel coaches would have seen in the Wheaton film when the same guys gave up big run and pass plays with poor technique.

Could be, but I didn't know too much about NCC football to understand their experience. I guess I never trusted NCC ever since they were blown out at home to a non playoff team. That Wheaton loss (in that fashion) came out of nowhere. Key players hurt that game or something?

[hazzben]

But for the record, you did predict a 5-7 pt NCC win if I remember correctly.

No, I didn't. I said NCC was a 5-7 pt favorite at home, which they were, and would be again if the two teams played this week. I believe HansenRatings had them as a 5.5 pt favorite.

Holy hair splitting. Ok, so you went on record as saying NCC was a 5-7 pt favorite, but not predicting a 5-7 pt win. Potayto Potawto

And no, in what world would NCC be a 5-7 pt favorite if teams played this week?? So what if Hansen has it as a 5.5 pt favorite. I love Logan's metrics and it's a fun tool. But we don't need it now, we've got a fresh H2H result, where nothing unusual or funky happened, proving that Bethel was 3 pts better than NCC on NCC's home field.

USee, sometimes I feel like you just love to argue. I think your pregame run down of Bethel and NCC were accurate and I gave you credit for it. Even though IMO you felt like NCC would hold up just enough on the LOS to win. You correctly recognized the keys to the game on the LOS. And I think I correctly recognized the error of some CCIW posters simply thinking Bethel could be beaten by throwing 8 in the box, stopping the run, and forcing BU to win through the air.

Yeah, the DB's got burned. But I guarantee you Bethel's run game and then two 14 point 'impose your will' drives had something to do it. Or were you wrong, and NCC's secondary just wasn't up to the challenge of defeating Bethel's passing attack?? Keep in mind, several posters brought up the Wheaton game and noted that NCC's DB's (especially the frosh converted WR) were much improved from that game.

[hazzben]

Kind of surprised Hansen has UWW favorites by 11.3 (with MHB being 10.6 over SJU). I would think the game would be closer than that.

Yeah, I'm surprised, but not that much. Hansen had the Wart - Bethel game as pretty close and NCC as a solid favorite last week. His projections just don't seem to like Bethel much. But that's why you play the games.

My lines would be:

Bethel +4.5
SJU +6

So on neutral fields UWW as a 1.5 pt favorite and UMHB as a 3 pt.

Barring injuries to starting QB's on the four teams, the only thing that would really surprise me would be blowout victories either way. But especially by either away team.

Here's to hoping each game lives up the hype!

[SaintsFAN]

I'm curious with a forecast of wind/rain (20-30 MPH) tomorrow in Whitewater -- which team will this adversely affect??

EDIT:  Nevermind.  I just saw this was mentioned by 02 already.  Carry on.

[USee]

But for the record, you did predict a 5-7 pt NCC win if I remember correctly.

No, I didn't. I said NCC was a 5-7 pt favorite at home, which they were, and would be again if the two teams played this week. I believe HansenRatings had them as a 5.5 pt favorite.

Holy hair splitting. Ok, so you went on record as saying NCC was a 5-7 pt favorite, but not predicting a 5-7 pt win. Potayto Potawto

And no, in what world would NCC be a 5-7 pt favorite if teams played this week?? So what if Hansen has it as a 5.5 pt favorite. I love Logan's metrics and it's a fun tool. But we don't need it now, we've got a fresh H2H result, where nothing unusual or funky happened, proving that Bethel was 3 pts better than NCC on NCC's home field.

USee, sometimes I feel like you just love to argue. I think your pregame run down of Bethel and NCC were accurate and I gave you credit for it. Even though IMO you felt like NCC would hold up just enough on the LOS to win. You correctly recognized the keys to the game on the LOS. And I think I correctly recognized the error of some CCIW posters simply thinking Bethel could be beaten by throwing 8 in the box, stopping the run, and forcing BU to win through the air.

Yeah, the DB's got burned. But I guarantee you Bethel's run game and then two 14 point 'impose your will' drives had something to do it. Or were you wrong, and NCC's secondary just wasn't up to the challenge of defeating Bethel's passing attack?? Keep in mind, several posters brought up the Wheaton game and noted that NCC's DB's (especially the frosh converted WR) were much improved from that game.

Hmmm. A bit defensive aren't we? Bethel won the game by 3 yes. In my view the teams were very even and Bethel played better. I think if you asked any objective person the point spread if they played again it likely would come out with NCC being favored by some small margin at home. That's not an alternative universe and not at all unreasonable, other than the fact it can't happen. That's not a knock on Bethel, just how the point spread thing works. I am sure Bleed could run some simulations on his Flux capacitor and tell us what would happen in his other world.

NCC's DB's played the same way against Bethel as they did against Wheaton. All I was saying it was no surprise a good running team did that to them. It happened to be Bethel.

I like Bethel's chances tomorrow at the Perk. As I said, when you can run the ball and play defense, you are going to have a chance in most games.

[USee]

Right, my point is you put 8 in the box, and/or have safeties losing eye discipline and staring into the backfield on PAP when you're overcommitted to stopping the run. Or can't stop the run.

The second one was a blown coverage by the safety. But the context is two back to back 14 play drives where Bethel ran it down NCC's throat. So the safety looks like the doofus, but it's because he's learned his front 7 can't hold up against the run on their own.

The story of the game was much more complex than NCC getting beat on two deep passing plays. They got beat deep because in the first half they were overcommitted to stopping the run and in the second half because they couldn't stop the run.

They got beat deep because their DB's weren't very good or were inexperienced, which the Bethel coaches would have seen in the Wheaton film when the same guys gave up big run and pass plays with poor technique.

Could be, but I didn't know too much about NCC football to understand their experience. I guess I never trusted NCC ever since they were blown out at home to a non playoff team. That Wheaton loss (in that fashion) came out of nowhere. Key players hurt that game or something?

Wheaton lost a game at WashU after their QB went down or else you may well be playing them this weekend. I don't say that flippantly, just saying their defense, special teams and offensive skill players were that good. Unfortunately their offensive line was frustratingly inconsistent. Against NCC they dominated and Wheaton played like quarter finalists. Against IWU and WashU, the Oline played like middle of the road CCIW players. They did the same thing to NCC last year and didn't make the playoffs.