FB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[SW1]

From what I've heard, NCC was the 5th pick in 2019 but I don't think there was ever a doubt they were getting in. The committee, made up of football minds that know D3, weren't letting that happen. So while the criteria favored other teams, there was considerable distance between NCC and the next team in. In advance of that, the criteria would have said "coin flip".

I (and others I know) think Wheaton is in similar position this year. The committee is looking for a reason to include them, not to exclude them. So while you think there "is a solid chance" Wheaton is playing in the Isthmus Bowl next week, I would say there is a "slim chance" that happens. It may be a coin flip but I would bet the coin is weighted 60/40 in Wheaton's favor. As a Wheaton fan I am definitely nervous because there is a chance we get left at the altar and if St Johns loses and a second LL team and BW all are at the table, I'll be a lot more nervous and the weighted coin starts to look like a true coin flip.

As Wally rightly points out in his projections (which have been eerily accurate historically) Wheaton's result vs NCC was more than just a 13 pt loss. This was a one score game. NCC scored with 1:36 left when Wheaton was blitzing and taking chances to get the ball back. Diving into NCC's SOS and result vs Aurora to compare to HSU's opponent UMHB and their RRO and SOS, is the detail you would expect at the Pool C table. As I have said, the criteria are a blueprint, not a bible. We have seen that in Region 5's rankings where Coe is above Chicago and Wheaton is above Lake Forest.

Why have criteria then if the committee has license to ignore it when it's inconvenient to their agenda?

People who don't understand the process always like to go to extremes. As many have said the criteria are meant to guide smart football people, not rule over them.

There are a lot of 1 loss teams out there with a MASSIVE SOS advantage over Wheaton and wins vs RR teams. So what process trumps this?

[wally_wabash]

From what I've heard, NCC was the 5th pick in 2019 but I don't think there was ever a doubt they were getting in. The committee, made up of football minds that know D3, weren't letting that happen. So while the criteria favored other teams, there was considerable distance between NCC and the next team in. In advance of that, the criteria would have said "coin flip".

I (and others I know) think Wheaton is in similar position this year. The committee is looking for a reason to include them, not to exclude them. So while you think there "is a solid chance" Wheaton is playing in the Isthmus Bowl next week, I would say there is a "slim chance" that happens. It may be a coin flip but I would bet the coin is weighted 60/40 in Wheaton's favor. As a Wheaton fan I am definitely nervous because there is a chance we get left at the altar and if St Johns loses and a second LL team and BW all are at the table, I'll be a lot more nervous and the weighted coin starts to look like a true coin flip.

As Wally rightly points out in his projections (which have been eerily accurate historically) Wheaton's result vs NCC was more than just a 13 pt loss. This was a one score game. NCC scored with 1:36 left when Wheaton was blitzing and taking chances to get the ball back. Diving into NCC's SOS and result vs Aurora to compare to HSU's opponent UMHB and their RRO and SOS, is the detail you would expect at the Pool C table. As I have said, the criteria are a blueprint, not a bible. We have seen that in Region 5's rankings where Coe is above Chicago and Wheaton is above Lake Forest.

Why have criteria then if the committee has license to ignore it when it's inconvenient to their agenda?

People who don't understand the process always like to go to extremes. As many have said the criteria are meant to guide smart football people, not rule over them.

There are a lot of 1 loss teams out there with a MASSIVE SOS advantage over Wheaton and wins vs RR teams. So what process trumps this?

There are actually not a lot of these teams that fit this description and I placed all of those teams (four of them) in the field ahead of Wheaton in today's projection.  I know it seems like Wheaton or Hardin Simmons are going to cut in line ahead of a bunch of other teams that have better criteria, but the line of at-large teams that have just one loss and any RRO wins is pretty short. 

[bleedpurple]

From what I've heard, NCC was the 5th pick in 2019 but I don't think there was ever a doubt they were getting in. The committee, made up of football minds that know D3, weren't letting that happen. So while the criteria favored other teams, there was considerable distance between NCC and the next team in. In advance of that, the criteria would have said "coin flip".

I (and others I know) think Wheaton is in similar position this year. The committee is looking for a reason to include them, not to exclude them. So while you think there "is a solid chance" Wheaton is playing in the Isthmus Bowl next week, I would say there is a "slim chance" that happens. It may be a coin flip but I would bet the coin is weighted 60/40 in Wheaton's favor. As a Wheaton fan I am definitely nervous because there is a chance we get left at the altar and if St Johns loses and a second LL team and BW all are at the table, I'll be a lot more nervous and the weighted coin starts to look like a true coin flip.

As Wally rightly points out in his projections (which have been eerily accurate historically) Wheaton's result vs NCC was more than just a 13 pt loss. This was a one score game. NCC scored with 1:36 left when Wheaton was blitzing and taking chances to get the ball back. Diving into NCC's SOS and result vs Aurora to compare to HSU's opponent UMHB and their RRO and SOS, is the detail you would expect at the Pool C table. As I have said, the criteria are a blueprint, not a bible. We have seen that in Region 5's rankings where Coe is above Chicago and Wheaton is above Lake Forest.

Why have criteria then if the committee has license to ignore it when it's inconvenient to their agenda?

People who don't understand the process always like to go to extremes. As many have said the criteria are meant to guide smart football people, not rule over them.

There are a lot of 1 loss teams out there with a MASSIVE SOS advantage over Wheaton and wins vs RR teams. So what process trumps this?

There are actually not a lot of these teams that fit this description and I placed all of those teams (four of them) in the field ahead of Wheaton in today's projection.  I know it seems like Wheaton or Hardin Simmons are going to cut in line ahead of a bunch of other teams that have better criteria, but the line of at-large teams that have just one loss and any RRO wins is pretty short.

So, Wally. Since you stopped by. Seeing if I'm reading your bracket correctly.  Assuming favorites win every game in the tournament, you've got the "One Seeds" with the following paths to the Stagg Bowl

NCC
Greenville
UW- La Crosse
Linfield
Mount Union

MOUNT UNION
Washington and Lee
Salisbury
Delaware Valley
NCC

UMHB
Trinity
Birmingham Southern
Cortland
UWW

UWW
Albion
Wheaton
St. John's
UMHB

Am I reading your bracket correctly?

[wally_wabash]

The way I intended that to be read is with the NCC/UMHB regions on one side and UMU/UWW on the other. 

[bleedpurple]

The way I intended that to be read is with the NCC/UMHB regions on one side and UMU/UWW on the other.

Got it, thanks!

NCC
Greenville
UW- La Crosse
Linfield
UMHB

UMHB
Trinity
Birmingham Southern
Cortland
NCC

MOUNT UNION
Washington and Lee
Salisbury
Delaware Valley
UWW

UWW
Albion
Wheaton
St. John's
Mount Union

[bleedpurple]

The way I intended that to be read is with the NCC/UMHB regions on one side and UMU/UWW on the other.

Got it, thanks!

NCC
Greenville
UW- La Crosse
Linfield
UMHB

UMHB
Trinity
Birmingham Southern
Cortland
NCC

MOUNT UNION
Washington and Lee
Salisbury
Delaware Valley
UWW

UWW
Albion
Wheaton
St. John's
Mount Union

If this holds true, there are three pretty marquee games at the Perk as long as UW-W keeps winning!

[USee]

Agree, would love to see some of these matchups in the playoffs. Seems like some high quality teams in almost every bracket, but this would be close to a death bracket.

[emma17]

I'm going w UWRF over UWO, which apparently guarantees only two teams from the WIAC.

If Wheaton doesn't make the playoffs, the 2021 season should have an asterisk in the record books.

They won't be. He just likes throwing digs in at a team he believes is inferior to his preferred team(s).

How does that game work? Best two teams in the CCIW and WIAC, that don't make the playoffs, square off?

If so, I don't understand why Wheaton would be involved in that game then.

Field projections I've seen either do not include Wheaton, or include them as the fifth (final) pool C selection. Like it or not, they are a coin flip, and even then one that depends on a few dominoes tumbling properly (such as SJU beating Bethel). My discussion points have never been about them being "inferior" to anybody. I believe they likely are a top 10 team in the nation, even if their competition level has not been up to usual standards this season. Their criteria, inarguably, has holes in it. Their SOS is gonna suck. They played one regionally ranked opponent and yes, it's the defending champion (from two years ago, and that's another point worth considering). They lost that game by 13.

So there's a solid chance Wheaton has nothing better to do that weekend, despite likely being one of the best teams in the nation. If y'all are saying Wheaton wouldn't participate as some sort of protest, or disinterest, or has an aversion to butter burgers, that's another conversation.

WW- I'm not debating your points about Pool C and I'm not looking to argue your opinion on Wheaton. Removing the whole Pool C discussion, I'm truly curious as to where you rank Wheaton in the top 25 for D3. In your posts on this board, you show knowledge of the WIAC teams and you use that insight to support your game predictions. Where do you rank Wheaton? And if you're willing, why?

[D3fanboy]

The way I intended that to be read is with the NCC/UMHB regions on one side and UMU/UWW on the other.

Got it, thanks!

NCC
Greenville
UW- La Crosse
Linfield
UMHB

UMHB
Trinity
Birmingham Southern
Cortland
NCC

MOUNT UNION
Washington and Lee
Salisbury
Delaware Valley
UWW

UWW
Albion
Wheaton
St. John's
Mount Union

looks great, put it in stone

[WW]

I'm going w UWRF over UWO, which apparently guarantees only two teams from the WIAC.

If Wheaton doesn't make the playoffs, the 2021 season should have an asterisk in the record books.

They won't be. He just likes throwing digs in at a team he believes is inferior to his preferred team(s).

How does that game work? Best two teams in the CCIW and WIAC, that don't make the playoffs, square off?

If so, I don't understand why Wheaton would be involved in that game then.

Field projections I've seen either do not include Wheaton, or include them as the fifth (final) pool C selection. Like it or not, they are a coin flip, and even then one that depends on a few dominoes tumbling properly (such as SJU beating Bethel). My discussion points have never been about them being "inferior" to anybody. I believe they likely are a top 10 team in the nation, even if their competition level has not been up to usual standards this season. Their criteria, inarguably, has holes in it. Their SOS is gonna suck. They played one regionally ranked opponent and yes, it's the defending champion (from two years ago, and that's another point worth considering). They lost that game by 13.

So there's a solid chance Wheaton has nothing better to do that weekend, despite likely being one of the best teams in the nation. If y'all are saying Wheaton wouldn't participate as some sort of protest, or disinterest, or has an aversion to butter burgers, that's another conversation.

WW- I'm not debating your points about Pool C and I'm not looking to argue your opinion on Wheaton. Removing the whole Pool C discussion, I'm truly curious as to where you rank Wheaton in the top 25 for D3. In your posts on this board, you show knowledge of the WIAC teams and you use that insight to support your game predictions. Where do you rank Wheaton? And if you're willing, why?

Top 10. I'm certain they're a good football team. Trouble with Wheaton, however, is that their resume doesn't provide much context that would help further identify their measure. And the questions I bring up about them is about the context, or criteria, and if it applies to them as it would another team. Apparently the answer is no; they're special.

[bleedpurple]

I'm going w UWRF over UWO, which apparently guarantees only two teams from the WIAC.

If Wheaton doesn't make the playoffs, the 2021 season should have an asterisk in the record books.

They won't be. He just likes throwing digs in at a team he believes is inferior to his preferred team(s).

How does that game work? Best two teams in the CCIW and WIAC, that don't make the playoffs, square off?

If so, I don't understand why Wheaton would be involved in that game then.

Field projections I've seen either do not include Wheaton, or include them as the fifth (final) pool C selection. Like it or not, they are a coin flip, and even then one that depends on a few dominoes tumbling properly (such as SJU beating Bethel). My discussion points have never been about them being "inferior" to anybody. I believe they likely are a top 10 team in the nation, even if their competition level has not been up to usual standards this season. Their criteria, inarguably, has holes in it. Their SOS is gonna suck. They played one regionally ranked opponent and yes, it's the defending champion (from two years ago, and that's another point worth considering). They lost that game by 13.

So there's a solid chance Wheaton has nothing better to do that weekend, despite likely being one of the best teams in the nation. If y'all are saying Wheaton wouldn't participate as some sort of protest, or disinterest, or has an aversion to butter burgers, that's another conversation.

WW- I'm not debating your points about Pool C and I'm not looking to argue your opinion on Wheaton. Removing the whole Pool C discussion, I'm truly curious as to where you rank Wheaton in the top 25 for D3. In your posts on this board, you show knowledge of the WIAC teams and you use that insight to support your game predictions. Where do you rank Wheaton? And if you're willing, why?

Top 10. I'm certain they're a good football team. Trouble with Wheaton, however, is that their resume doesn't provide much context that would help further identify their measure. And the questions I bring up about them is about the context, or criteria, and if it applies to them as it would another team. Apparently the answer is no; they're special.

I'm not looking to insert myself into this spitting match.  But what I WILL say, is that for a conference that is supposed to be one of the stronger conferences in the country, it doesn't look like it when you try to evaluate Wheaton through their schedule.  They have the loss to NCC that was respectable.  I honestly can't tell anything about them from any other game.

They beat Wash U by 30.  But Wash U lost to Chicago by 10.
They crushed IWU, but IWU gave up 62 to Carthage.

And all the rest of their opponents had pretty horrible losses to teams other than NCC or Wheaton.

So, truthfully, I have no idea how good Wheaton is this year.  Top 10? I'd think so, but truthfully that's based on one result, which was also a game they lost.

I suspect they are pretty good, but I'm not sure the whole "eye test" thing is strong enough to throw out criteria over.

If I had to make a statement about them, it would be this:

"They are good enough to crush teams that aren't very good and to stay within two scores of NCC". That's about all I got. 

Putting guessing into the mix, I'd say they would be the first, second, or third best team eligible for Pool C.  But I wouldn't say they've proven it.

[USee]

Bleed, isn't that true of most of the top 25?

[emma17]

I attempted to move the discussion away from Pool C selections in my question to WW because I see he and USee have logical positions based on "criteria".

I'm interested in where we think they rank. I'd rank them exactly where they are at 6- and wouldn't be surprised if they could beat all 5. Not saying they will but could.
I don't understand the position people take about not looking at 2019. They were a great team in 2019 and beat one of the most dominating Stagg Bowl champions we've seen in a long time. And then they went and returned a bunch of those players.
I've always been a "multi-year" body of work guy when it comes to rankings and seedings though.

[bleedpurple]

Bleed, isn't that true of most of the top 25?

That's probably true! I was looking through a narrow lens because of all the Wheaton discussion. But you are probably right. 

[wally_wabash]

Bleed, isn't that true of most of the top 25?

That's probably true! I was looking through a narrow lens because of all the Wheaton discussion. But you are probably right.

This cuts right to the quick about the utility of the SOS number.  Long gone are the days of 3-4 non-conference games where SOS separations are built on decent sample sizes.  With a 10-game schedule and the proliferation of 10-team leagues, SOS is weird measurement of....?  I'm honestly not sure anymore and I do think some RACs (not all, but some) put maybe a little less weight to that piece of criteria than they would have 5-10 years ago. 

SOS is one piece of criteria- not the only piece.  Important to remember.