Atlantic Central Football Conference/Independents

[mizzou_mafia]

what i dont understand is how wesley beats the #4 team in the nation...SOUNDLY and still gets no respect.  You wanna talk about bridgewater's stats..what about wesley shutting down both salisbury and ferrums' rushing attack...who were both #1 in the nation in rushing when wesley played them.  If bridgewater doesn't have 4 GREAT d-backs...then i think they will have ALOT of trouble...especially playing in dover.  People must remember, the passing game is not all wesley has. They have a solid rushing game and a VERY UNDERRATED DEFENSE.   And i have another question for the board. Who had bridgewater played worth talking about? Im just curious.

Wesley shut down Mary Hardin-Baylor's rushing attack?  The Crusaders had 264 rushing yards on 73 carries (3.6 yards/carry) with three of their four TDs coming on the ground.  Sure the Wolverines forced four fumbles (which they scored 24 points on, only having to go 53 yards following all four fumble recoveries combined to score that 24 points).

So yeah, Wesley did what they needed to do to beat Mary Hardin-Baylor, but they hardly "shut down their rushing attack."

Kid, I agree with you!... in everything but one thing.  theone didn't say Wesley shut down MHB's rushing attack...

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

Kid, I agree with you!... in everything but one thing.  theone didn't say Wesley shut down MHB's rushing attack...

Okay ... well ... just in case he was thinking it.

[mizzou_mafia]

Kid, I agree with you!... in everything but one thing.  theone didn't say Wesley shut down MHB's rushing attack...

Okay ... well ... just in case he was thinking it.

Lol!  Glad you have every angle covered Kid, even before the angle materializes.

Those 24 points on 53 yards is an interesting stat.  BC hasn't exactly been mistake/turnover free the past several games, and like UMHB, will have a hard time overcoming a stat like 24 points on 53 yards. 

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

Wesley's strength (I know, they seem to have lots of them) is their passing game.

So how did Bridgewater do against some of the top passing teams in the nation this year?

Rank	School	Pass YPG	Result
1	Catholic	434.6	BC won
3	H-SC	381.1	BC won
5	Guilford	363.7	BC won
6	W&J	327.3	BC won
7	Hanover	324.3	BC won
23	Wesley	276.6	??
24	W&L	274.9	BC won

And this year we faced plenty of nationally ranked receivers including #1 Nick Bublavi (Catholic), #2 Chris Barnette (Guilford), #3 Jack Martin (W&L), #4 Brandon Chambers (Thiel), #5 Drew Smith (H-SC), #18 Mike Russell (Hanover), #23 Aaron Krepps (W&J), and #32 Brian Rolander (H-SC).

Wesley has two great receivers (Marcus Lee and Larry Beavers) ... but Guilford also had Micah Rushing, W&L also had Colton Ward, Thiel also had Tom McEntire, and W&J also had Jon Miller (and as shown above, H-SC had two receivers ranked in the top 35).

I think the difference will be our offensive line versus the Wesley defensive line.

[narch]

kid - can i get a defensive comparison of those same teams?...how about rushing ypg?...need some help deciding which way i'm going with this pick

my suspicion is that wesley's defense is the best of the bunch and that they are more balanced offensively - i KNOW wesley's defense is better than catholic, hsc and guilford...not sure about w&j and hanover

for what it's worth, holding umhb to 264 yards and 3.6 ypc isn't shutting them down, but it is certainly containing them...umhb averaged 4.8 ypc on the season (with the wesley game in the books...it was probably 4.9 ypc before the wesley game), and throwing a running team over 2 yards per possession "off schedule" is big...forces them to throw in situations that they are accustomed to running in

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

kid - can i get a defensive comparison of those same teams? [...]

The defensive statistical comparison would be in Wesley's favor.  Our defensive stats are all out of wack after facing five of the top seven passing teams in the country.  So on paper, Wesley has the edge on the defensive side of the ball.  Not to mention they are a lot bigger (their D-line averages something absurd like 6-3, 275).

[...]
my suspicion is that wesley's defense is the best of the bunch and that they are more balanced offensively - i KNOW wesley's defense is better than catholic, hsc and guilford...not sure about w&j and hanover
[...]

Yeah, I'd agree (on paper that is, seeing I haven't seen them play yet).  Of the teams we've faced this year, I'd say Thiel and W&L had the best defenses.  They did hold us to season-lows of 24 and 17 points, respectively.

[...] need some help deciding which way i'm going with this pick
[...]

The Born-Power Index has Wesley as a two touchdown favorite.  I'd agree.  I have faith in Clark, Colbert, and Higgison, to come up with a game plan to make the game competitive, but Bridgewater will have to play a near flawless game to win this weekend.

[BigMikeA78]

Kid, they may have Wesley as a 2 TD favorite, but considering UMHB was able to run for over 200 yards in the first half against Wesley.  I think BC, if they stay committed to the run, with the duo of Young and Washington can turn this into a clock game and win it in a low scoring dogfight.  Also, when you add in the scrambling ability of Highfill, I think BC can definitely give Wesley's defense fits.

[religion_major]

I think Wesley will get at least one big play TD against the BC defense, but will give up at least one long run to the BC offense.  Bottom line, I think it comes down to turnovers and special teams. 

[theone]

any preditions on the upcoming games?!?!

my predicitons

Wesley  45
Bridgewater 19

Rowan 30
Del Val 35

UW-WHIT... 33
Linfield...30

Mt. Union 40
Capital 20

[BigMikeA78]

Hey, theone...i would be flat out shocked to see BC lose by 26 as you are predicting...what makes you think Wesley will be able to beat BC by that margin?

[religion_major]

any preditions on the upcoming games?!?!

my predicitons

Wesley  45
Bridgewater 19

Rowan 30
Del Val 35

UW-WHIT... 33
Linfield...30

Mt. Union 40
Capital 20

I think you have way too much offense in both the East and South finals.  I think that the West final may be lower scoring than that based on last week's results but Linfield has put up big numbers against some very good teams.  I think that the BC/Wesley score is no more than a seven point spread unless one of the two teams has a -3 or worse turnover rate.  I think the Rowan/DVC score will be something like 17-14 DVC due to the way Rowan's defense is playing and the fact that Rowan's #1 quarterback is out for the year.

[PA_wesleyfan]

The only problem with those stats are that Wesley doesn't take 45 plays to get 276yds and that includes a game that was less than stellar at Brockport

Wesley's strength (I know, they seem to have lots of them) is their passing game.

So how did Bridgewater do against some of the top passing teams in the nation this year?

Rank	School	Pass YPG	Result
1	Catholic	434.6	BC won
3	H-SC	381.1	BC won
5	Guilford	363.7	BC won
6	W&J	327.3	BC won
7	Hanover	324.3	BC won
23	Wesley	276.6	??
24	W&L	274.9	BC won

And this year we faced plenty of nationally ranked receivers including #1 Nick Bublavi (Catholic), #2 Chris Barnette (Guilford), #3 Jack Martin (W&L), #4 Brandon Chambers (Thiel), #5 Drew Smith (H-SC), #18 Mike Russell (Hanover), #23 Aaron Krepps (W&J), and #32 Brian Rolander (H-SC).

Wesley has two great receivers (Marcus Lee and Larry Beavers) ... but Guilford also had Micah Rushing, W&L also had Colton Ward, Thiel also had Tom McEntire, and W&J also had Jon Miller (and as shown above, H-SC had two receivers ranked in the top 35).

I think the difference will be our offensive line versus the Wesley defensive line.

[religion_major]

The only problem with those stats are that Wesley doesn't take 45 plays to get 276yds and that includes a game that was less than stellar at Brockport

Wesley's strength (I know, they seem to have lots of them) is their passing game.

So how did Bridgewater do against some of the top passing teams in the nation this year?

Rank	School	Pass YPG	Result
1	Catholic	434.6	BC won
3	H-SC	381.1	BC won
5	Guilford	363.7	BC won
6	W&J	327.3	BC won
7	Hanover	324.3	BC won
23	Wesley	276.6	??
24	W&L	274.9	BC won

And this year we faced plenty of nationally ranked receivers including #1 Nick Bublavi (Catholic), #2 Chris Barnette (Guilford), #3 Jack Martin (W&L), #4 Brandon Chambers (Thiel), #5 Drew Smith (H-SC), #18 Mike Russell (Hanover), #23 Aaron Krepps (W&J), and #32 Brian Rolander (H-SC).

Wesley has two great receivers (Marcus Lee and Larry Beavers) ... but Guilford also had Micah Rushing, W&L also had Colton Ward, Thiel also had Tom McEntire, and W&J also had Jon Miller (and as shown above, H-SC had two receivers ranked in the top 35).

I think the difference will be our offensive line versus the Wesley defensive line.

Fine then let's talk about BC's results in terms of opponent's total offense:

Rank  School  Total YPG Result

#2                              H-SC                              525.2                           BC Won
#6                              W&J                               501.8                           BC Won
#13                          Catholic                           470.7                           BC Won
#26                          Guilford                            437.5                           BC Won

We can also add a similar comparison for Wesley's opponents:

Rank  School  Total YPG Result
#15                           Bridgewater                   459.9                               ??
#16                           Ferrum                            458.2                           Wesley Won
#35                           Salisbury                         421.2                           Wesley Won

We have now acounted for the run/pass differential in play calling by using total offense.  Both teams have faired well against the nation's top offenses with BC facing slightly better offenses statisticly.

[religion_major]

Both of these teams have a very limited sample against the top teams in terms of total defense in the nation.  Here is the comparison:

Bridgewater

Rank  School  Total YPG Allowed Result
#10         Thiel             253.0            BC Won
#30         Wesley         272.6             ??


Wesley

Rank  School  Total YPG Allowed Result
#26         UMHB                267.7        Wesley Won

[theone]

mr religion-major...

What can bridgwater do against a solid rushing attack and a recieving corp that consist of 4 very good recievers.  Lets not forget that beavers and Lee aren't the only recievers who have been producing for the wolverines.