FB: American Rivers Conference

[the_mayne_event]

In order to catch a lot of passes you have to get thrown a lot of passes. The quarterback runs the plays that are called by the coach. The first string stays in to the end in blowouts instead of letting 2's or 3's get some pt. WR's stats are not individual like tackles where a stud directly influences his nuimbers. I'm saying that Zweifel's numbers are hugely dependant on the system, and that there are several other recievers in the conference that could achieve the same thing in the same situation. All I said that was in the game I watched, Zweifel didn't have any superior skills to a receiver the other team. All he did is catch more passes because he was thrown more passes. Zweifel is an excellent receiver, he's just not other-worldly like some profess him to be. I sincerely hope he earns All-American hornors.

Obviously the system a kid is in will dictate the type of numbers a player will have. If you were a good receiver you would want to go to a school that fits your abilities. With that being said, I hate the "system makes the player" arguements. The system doesn't throw the passes, make catches, make the correct blocks. If you have a superior player, exploit the matchup.
Coe had the same situation as Central had with Schurring and Connell (with a plethora of receiving targets) - you spread the ball around if you can afford to. If you have one good receiver, and no real running game, you throw to that receiver a majority of the time. I didn't watch mutch of the Coe UD game, so I can't say for sure, but maybe he is the only real threat for UD.
You can't just stick any kid out there, throw at him 15 times, and he'll get 10 catches (or however many). You still have to get open. Maybe the reason teh Wartburg kid doesn't get thrown at all the time is because he isn't open all the time. If Zweifel's priority is to make his kid All-America, UD has a huge problem. I'm guessing, though, that he would rather win games then put up gaudy stats.

[warthog]

Thought for the day:

Do not count your chickens before they are hatched.

- Aesop

[dutchfan1]

Thought for the day:

Do not count your chickens before they are hatched.

- Aesop

What a delightfully poignant reminder - the season's not over yet.  

[footballdaddy]

+k Heys and Warthog

Heys, if you ever want to rap or just get weird, I'm here. Cannonball!!!!!!

Sorry my inner Carl Spackler took over.

[DutchFan2004]

I was thinking about this recently and I'm beginning to think that if Central wins out, its very unlikely that they are going to get a regional number 1 ranking. Here's my line of thinking. CUI finishes up the regular season against Wartburg and goes into the final week with a bye. Looking at St. Johns (#4) they play Augsburg (4-3) and Carleton (3-4) to finish out the season. Unlikely they lose either game. Peeking at Linfield (#5) they play Puget Sound (0-6) and Pacific Lutheran (2-4) to close out. Again, highly unlikely that they lose. So, everyone should finish up the season undefeated (I know BV and WB will want to play spoiler). Here's my line of thoughts on the most likely course of actions:

#4 Seed
UWW gets #1 in West followed by SJU, Linfield, and Central

#3 Seed
MUC moves to East, UWW takes #1 seed in the North
SJU takes #1 in West followed by Linfield and Central

Now here's where it gets tricky. If you look at the margin of victory, Central had two tight games at the beginning of the season and have rolled since then. SJU has had closer victories and had to go to overtime to beat St. Thomas, had a last second victory against Bethel, and didn't put up great numbers against a 3-4 St. Olaf team.  Presumably, Central could jump them as being the more dominant team (that's a big maybe.)

Now, look at Linfield. It's harder to use the margin of victory argument because, they like Central, started off with a couple of closer margin victories, but since then, have had rolled up until this weekend with a close victory over previously ranked Willamette. In my opinion, it's a little bit harder to justify Central jumping them unless they lose.

Like I mentioned before, Central has a bye in the final weekend of regular season play. Its possible that could hurt them in the playoff seedings because the committee could see they had a week off to gear up and prepare. I would think that they would want to keep things as competitive as possible and reward either Linfield or SJU for clinching at the end. Of course, close games for either of them might swing the committee in Central's favor. This all, however, is dependent on MUC moving East and UWW taking the North. Again, just speculation, but I think if I were a Dutch fan, I would be preparing for a home game for at least the first week.

Playoffs as I see it playing out:
#1 SJU vs. #8 Coe
#2 Linfield vs. #7 Occidental
#3 Central vs. #6 St. Thomas (not gonna see a West Coast team travel to Iowa)
#4 Willamette vs #5 Redlands or Cal Lutheran (seed to be decided on Nov. 14)

UW-SP doesn't make the cut with an almost certain loss to UWW coming up this weekend and that would be 3 losses on the season.

Of course, all of this could be shot to s!@# in the last three weeks but its fun to speculate!

The other part of the bracket that won't happen is you have two flights.  If that bracket happened I think you would see conference rematches with the NWC and SCIAC making up one half of the 8 team bracket.  That way the NCAA gets by with only one flight in two rounds of playoffs instead of three flights in two rounds.  got to $ave those bucks where you can.  

[hazzben]

I was thinking about this recently and I'm beginning to think that if Central wins out, its very unlikely that they are going to get a regional number 1 ranking. Here's my line of thinking. CUI finishes up the regular season against Wartburg and goes into the final week with a bye. Looking at St. Johns (#4) they play Augsburg (4-3) and Carleton (3-4) to finish out the season. Unlikely they lose either game. Peeking at Linfield (#5) they play Puget Sound (0-6) and Pacific Lutheran (2-4) to close out. Again, highly unlikely that they lose. So, everyone should finish up the season undefeated (I know BV and WB will want to play spoiler). Here's my line of thoughts on the most likely course of actions:

#4 Seed
UWW gets #1 in West followed by SJU, Linfield, and Central

#3 Seed
MUC moves to East, UWW takes #1 seed in the North
SJU takes #1 in West followed by Linfield and Central

Now here's where it gets tricky. If you look at the margin of victory, Central had two tight games at the beginning of the season and have rolled since then. SJU has had closer victories and had to go to overtime to beat St. Thomas, had a last second victory against Bethel, and didn't put up great numbers against a 3-4 St. Olaf team.  Presumably, Central could jump them as being the more dominant team (that's a big maybe.)

Now, look at Linfield. It's harder to use the margin of victory argument because, they like Central, started off with a couple of closer margin victories, but since then, have had rolled up until this weekend with a close victory over previously ranked Willamette. In my opinion, it's a little bit harder to justify Central jumping them unless they lose.

Like I mentioned before, Central has a bye in the final weekend of regular season play. Its possible that could hurt them in the playoff seedings because the committee could see they had a week off to gear up and prepare. I would think that they would want to keep things as competitive as possible and reward either Linfield or SJU for clinching at the end. Of course, close games for either of them might swing the committee in Central's favor. This all, however, is dependent on MUC moving East and UWW taking the North. Again, just speculation, but I think if I were a Dutch fan, I would be preparing for a home game for at least the first week.

Playoffs as I see it playing out:
#1 SJU vs. #8 Coe
#2 Linfield vs. #7 Occidental
#3 Central vs. #6 St. Thomas (not gonna see a West Coast team travel to Iowa)
#4 Willamette vs #5 Redlands or Cal Lutheran (seed to be decided on Nov. 14)

UW-SP doesn't make the cut with an almost certain loss to UWW coming up this weekend and that would be 3 losses on the season.

Of course, all of this could be shot to s!@# in the last three weeks but its fun to speculate!

You've got Willamette (a two-loss team) ahead of 4 one-loss teams? Unlikely a two-loss team even gets an at-large bid (check the Cali. scenarios for that as well).  Also, Monmouth is in the West region.

Not to mention, Bethel and St. Thomas square off in two weeks.  If Bethel wins, I think they'd be a much more favorable 2 loss team than Willamette or anyone else.  Especially when you consider they'd own the head to head against UST and beat the common opponent, Concordia, that Willamette lost to.  As it stands, Bethel's only two losses were both on the last plays of the game to two teams in the top 15. 

I love the predictions, but I'm betting there is a least one or two upsets waiting in the final weeks that will throw all this off a bit.  Also, keep in mind that all Pool C bids must be competed for nationally.  You really have to know what kind of Pool C depth there is in a given year nationally to predict the regional brackets.

[Airborne Dutch]

Wow. This is what I love about D-3 boards. If I were to post my predictions with the flaws I had on a D1 or NFL board, I would get roasted. So instead of doing matchups now here's how I think things stand (all depending on whether Whitewater goes to the North; if not, then this gets screwed up a little)

Too early to call but near certainties:
SJU-Middle of the road conference opponents from here. Should go unblemished
Linfield-Ditto
CUI-BV and Wartburg will not be easy but the Dutch have lots of weapons and a solid defense.
Monmouth-Illinois College is their only moderate test left. MWC automatic bid. (thanx for catching this one d-train)

Controls their own destinies but likely be travelling November 21
Coe-Loras and BV will not be easy but Coe has rebounded after the loss in Pella.
Occidental-Great race in SCIAC. Definitely one to keep an eye on. Took the victory against Redlands. A win Saturday over Cal Lu puts them in the drivers seat for the automatic bid.
Redlands-Lost the head to head with Occidental. Needs a Cal Lu victory on Saturday and no road bumps the rest of the way until a matchup up Cal Lu to finish the season to force a tiebreaker.
Cal Lutheran-Easy. Win the rest of the way. A loss to either Occidental or Redlands and it becomes tougher to wrap up the conference.
St. Thomas-Two tough games in the next two weeks. Augsburg has lost two games they should have won and Bethel ran SJU to the wire. November 7 matchup determines the second playoff team from the MIAC.
Bethel-Two losses already, but to teams ranked in the Top 10 at the time. See above about November 7 matchup.

Better luck next year
Willamette-Will likely win out. A close loss to Linfield might pull some weight, but the loss to Concordia-Moorhead, a lackluster conference schedule, and the SCIAC race will keep them home.
UW-Stevens Point- Had the chance to recover following a season opening loss to Central, but the loss to Azusa Pacific hurts. A date with Whitewater on Saturday should crush any playoff hopes.
UW-Lacrosse-They can keep the dream alive for the next two weeks, but a Nov. 14 matchup with UWW ends the season.

[DutchFan2004]

Wow. This is what I love about D-3 boards. If I were to post my predictions with the flaws I had on a D1 or NFL board, I would get roasted. So instead of doing matchups now here's how I think things stand (all depending on whether Whitewater goes to the North; if not, then this gets screwed up a little)

Too early to call but near certainties:
SJU-Middle of the road conference opponents from here. Should go unblemished
Linfield-Ditto
CUI-BV and Wartburg will not be easy but the Dutch have lots of weapons and a solid defense.
Monmouth-Illinois College is their only moderate test left. MWC automatic bid. (thanx for catching this one d-train)

Controls their own destinies but likely be travelling November 21
Coe-Loras and BV will not be easy but Coe has rebounded after the loss in Pella.
Occidental-Great race in SCIAC. Definitely one to keep an eye on. Took the victory against Redlands. A win Saturday over Cal Lu puts them in the drivers seat for the automatic bid.
Redlands-Lost the head to head with Occidental. Needs a Cal Lu victory on Saturday and no road bumps the rest of the way until a matchup up Cal Lu to finish the season to force a tiebreaker.
Cal Lutheran-Easy. Win the rest of the way. A loss to either Occidental or Redlands and it becomes tougher to wrap up the conference.
St. Thomas-Two tough games in the next two weeks. Augsburg has lost two games they should have won and Bethel ran SJU to the wire. November 7 matchup determines the second playoff team from the MIAC.
Bethel-Two losses already, but to teams ranked in the Top 10 at the time. See above about November 7 matchup.

Better luck next year
Willamette-Will likely win out. A close loss to Linfield might pull some weight, but the loss to Concordia-Moorhead, a lackluster conference schedule, and the SCIAC race will keep them home.
UW-Stevens Point- Had the chance to recover following a season opening loss to Central, but the loss to Azusa Pacific hurts. A date with Whitewater on Saturday should crush any playoff hopes.
UW-Lacrosse-They can keep the dream alive for the next two weeks, but a Nov. 14 matchup with UWW ends the season.

You are assuming here that UWW wins the game with UWSP.  If UWSP wins there is a whole lot of things that goes out the window.  UWW won't be going North.  The WIAC would have two teams in the bracket too.  UWW and UWSP.  With three weeks left there are a whole lot of question marks still out there.  The thought for the day says it best.  That date with UWW is UWSP make or break game so I don't think it is in the bank for UWW to win.  UWSP can take control of the WIAC with a win. 

[Purple Heys]

Here's a Setup...

WIAC:  1 team or 2 teams:  With the stacked WIAC, it's hard to argue against.  I'd take a 2 loss WIAC rep over a 1 loss SCIAC or MWC rep.  Prediction: 2 teams

MIAC: 1 team or 2 teams:  The way it seems likely to play out, I look for 2 teams, MIAC is a committee fave.  Prediction: 2 teams

NWC:  1 team or 2 teams:  Linfield will win out, Willamette 2 losses hurt.  Prediction: 1 team

IIAC: 1 team or 2 teams:  Central winning out clinches for them; the Kohacks winning (IF they beat my Rams,  ) makes it a horse race.  Prediction: Kohacks left high and dry and deserving...1 team...but in a given scenario, a 1 loss Kohack team should, IMHO, get in before a 2nd SCIAC team.

SCIAC: 1 team or 2 teams:  Why does this always draw so much discussion, the SCIAC as a league is below the 4 above...the SCIAC champs haven't done much over the last several years, Oxy's loss to Linfield at home can't reflect well and Redlands can't seem to beat Oxy.  If Cal Lu beats Oxy, then 1 team for sure.  Prediction:  1 team

MWC:  1 team or 2 teams:  Not likely, even with Monmouth undefeated and St. Norbert with 1 loss...conference just too weak.  Prediction: 1 team

[Fannosaurus Rex]

My way of looking at potential play-off match-ups is purely selfish.  I hope to get to see Central in at least one play-off game.  Pella is 300 miles from my house.  I will only make that trip once and I won't go any further, well except maybe to Salem.  So someone please figure out a scenario where Central doesn't lose and I get to go see them at North Central (29 miles) or Wheaton (28 miles), or Wabash (147 miles).  I could do Monmouth (204 miles) but it would take something bad happening for The Dutch to have to make that trip.  The closest of those Minnesota schools is 400 miles and I think Ohio is about the same so they aren't happening for me.  Of course the most likely is another trip to Whitewater (135 miles).  That was fun when I went up there in 1988, 2005 not so much.

[dutchfan1]

http://www.coachoftheyear.com

Vote McMartin, and vote often! Proven success should be rewarded!

[warthog]

All this playoff guessing has given me a headache, so for lunch I got as far away from playoff talk as possible.  I went to Mt. Vernon and had a Bleu Cheese Burger and a Blue Moon beer at Chameleons.  

If the IIAC is to improve, we need not discuss expansion.  We need not discuss playoff possibilities.  Improvement will happen when all other communities, that are home to an IIAC college,  have a bar that serves the Chameleon's Bleu Cheese Burger recipe.

My only question is: Why doesn't the Chameleon have a few Rams pictures or posters on the wall?  They seem to have a semi-sports bar theme, but I didn't see anything that would make you guess the Rams were in town.

[Kohawk Krazy]

http://www.coachoftheyear.com

Vote McMartin, and vote often! Proven success should be rewarded!

Looks like Steve Staker is the highest vote getting IIAC coach so far.

[oldNorse]

BTW, Wartburg's field is football only. If you have to hide behind a sloppy field to win games that's ok. I just hope you don't get anyone hurt because of it.

Didn't you ever play on grass?  No more injuries than field turf.  Check the stats.

[DutchFan2004]

All this playoff guessing has given me a headache, so for lunch I got as far away from playoff talk as possible.  I went to Mt. Vernon and had a Bleu Cheese Burger and a Blue Moon beer at Chameleons.  

If the IIAC is to improve, we need not discuss expansion.  We need not discuss playoff possibilities.  Improvement will happen when all other communities, that are home to an IIAC college,  have a bar that serves the Chameleon's Bleu Cheese Burger recipe.

My only question is: Why doesn't the Chameleon have a few Rams pictures or posters on the wall?  They seem to have a semi-sports bar theme, but I didn't see anything that would make you guess the Rams were in town.

Sounds like Heys needs to get a Fathead of Jr made for that place so they have something Rams for their walls.