FB: American Rivers Conference

[Charlie Kohawk]

Before anyone goes crowning Central as conference champs, consider this possible scenario:

Central loses to Loras and at Coe and beats Simpson to finish 6-2.
Wartburg loses at BV and wins vs. Cornell and Dubuque to finish 6-2.
Coe wins out against Central and Cornell to finish 6-2.
BV wins out vs Wartburg and at Dubuque to finish 6-2.
Loras wins out at Cental and Simpson and vs Luther to finish 6-2.

Long shot for all of that to fall into place, but if it did, that would mean that BV would get the automatic bid to the playoffs.  The "Rose Bowl Rule" would eliminate teams until there is a tie that can be broken by head-to-head results.  Given that Coe won the AQ last year, they would be the first to go.  From there Central and Wartburg would each be taken out of the equation, given their making the playoffs in '05 and '04, respectively.  BV won their head-to-head meeting with Loras, so the Beavers would get the automatic berth.  In that scenario, I would find it very hard to believe that the conference would get at second team in.

A long shot indeed, but now consider this:
Say Loras beats Central but loses to either Simpson or Luther. They're 5-3.
Say BV beats Wartburg but loses to Dubuque. They're 5-3.
Say Wartburg loses two of three to BV, Cornell and Dubuque. They're 5-3.

If Coe beats Central in two weeks and Cornell the week after, and Central loses to either Loras or Simpson, both would be 6-2. Coe would get the AQ by virtue of its win over Central.

It's not over.

[Kohawk Krazy]

Before anyone goes crowning Central as conference champs, consider this possible scenario:

Central loses to Loras and at Coe and beats Simpson to finish 6-2.
Wartburg loses at BV and wins vs. Cornell and Dubuque to finish 6-2.
Coe wins out against Central and Cornell to finish 6-2.
BV wins out vs Wartburg and at Dubuque to finish 6-2.
Loras wins out at Cental and Simpson and vs Luther to finish 6-2.

Long shot for all of that to fall into place, but if it did, that would mean that BV would get the automatic bid to the playoffs.  The "Rose Bowl Rule" would eliminate teams until there is a tie that can be broken by head-to-head results.  Given that Coe won the AQ last year, they would be the first to go.  From there Central and Wartburg would each be taken out of the equation, given their making the playoffs in '05 and '04, respectively.  BV won their head-to-head meeting with Loras, so the Beavers would get the automatic berth.  In that scenario, I would find it very hard to believe that the conference would get at second team in.

A long shot indeed, but now consider this:
Say Loras beats Central but loses to either Simpson or Luther. They're 5-3.
Say BV beats Wartburg but loses to Dubuque. They're 5-3.
Say Wartburg loses two of three to BV, Cornell and Dubuque. They're 5-3.

If Coe beats Central in two weeks and Cornell the week after, and Central loses to either Loras or Simpson, both would be 6-2. Coe would get the AQ by virtue of its win over Central.

It's not over.

I'm really liking your thinking Charlie, let's hope it happens!!

[DutchFan2004]

Charlie,

That is all possible,  but I think pigs have a better chance of flying than Wartburg loses 2 out of three against that line up.  I think Wartburg is in the drivers seat. 

[Walston Hoover]

I'd say ISU has a better chance of winning out than that situation happening.

[Walston Hoover]

One thing that is for sure is that in this conference, Defense and running the football wins championships. A great defense with a good RUSHING offense behind it has been the recipe for success the last 5 years.
2005
Coe D-16 ppg (1)/ O-175 ypg rushing (3)
Central D 18 ppg (4)/ O-181 ypg rushing (2)
2004
Wartburg D 17 ppg (2)/O- 172 ypg rushing (2)
Coe D 19 ppg (4)/ O- 160 ypg (4)
2003
Wartburg D 10.1 ppg (1)/ O- 197.9 ypg rushing (3)
2002
Central D 9.9 ppg (1)/O- 196.4 ypg rushing (3)
Wartburg D 12 ppg (2)/O-238 ypg rushing (1)
Coe D 14.2 ppg (3)/O- 226 ypg rushing (2)
And right now Central leads the league and has the best scoring defense 9.1 ppg and the 2nd best rushing O. Wartburg has the Best Rushing O and the second best D.

The question becomes then can a team like Luther ever contend for a title with the offense they run? Simpson made a run in 2003 but was shut down pretty handily by Wartburg only scoring 10 points and then got beat by a MWC school in the first round of the playoffs.

[lorbec47]

Show-- After talking to the Kuemper coach, it sounds like JS made all the big plays on Friday night. After watching BV/Loras on Saturday, the Beavers made all the big plays too. If I were you I would have gone straight to a casino after the game. Not that your teams didn't made their own luck, but you've got a streak going. I tip my hat to your teams.

[Walston Hoover]

How often does a team upset a top 25 opponent by going 1-4 passing with 2 picks?
Not very I would guess, but Wartburg did it the same way they've been winning the rest of their games this year. A great defense that finds a time to give up one big play, and a ball control offense that had the ball almost 15 minutes more than Coe. Also holding Coe to 0-9 3rd down conversions.
For the second game in a row, Wartburg dominates in TOP in the 3rd quarter, holding the ball for 11 minutes.
Actually, Wartburg has been dominating 3rd quarters all season long
Outscoring their opponents 6.7 to 2
Holding their opponents to an average of 35 yards, and the best part, holding the ball for almost 9.5 minutes of every third quarter. SInce the Central game they have given up -4 yards total in the third quarter.

[Dsquared]

WH- Does your company know that you waste time like this on message boards?  Maybe you looked all this stuff up at your coaches meetings yesterday?  Your knack for useless sports trivia knows no bounds!  You still have a chance with the big boys at ESPN doing your research like that, my friend!

[Dsquared]

Congrats to the Knights for hopping up to #23 on the d3football poll this week!  Someone needs to get ahold of Don Hansen and let him know that the Knights aren't 5-2!

I know that the IIAC has no right to complain for poll position after their track record in the playoffs, but I wouldn't think that a single OT loss to Central would merit the Knights to be out of the Top 25 for so long, whereas the Kohawks had a loss to a SLIPPING Duhawk team and still clung to the #24 or #25 slot for weeks.  Not saying they didn't deserve it, as was seen in CR on Saturday... but just asking where's the love for the Evil Empire? 

[Walston Hoover]

D^2
Little girl got up at 5 this morning. I had a lot of time before starting work. Most of my stuff gets typed up on Word during the weeked and copied and pasted Monday morning.

[Floyd in Iowa City]

One thing that is for sure is that in this conference, Defense and running the football wins championships. A great defense with a good RUSHING offense behind it has been the recipe for success the last 5 years.

The question becomes then can a team like Luther ever contend for a title with the offense they run? Simpson made a run in 2003 but was shut down pretty handily by Wartburg only scoring 10 points and then got beat by a MWC school in the first round of the playoffs.

These numbers don't give a complete picture of Norse Football over the last four years:
2006 - Defense 7th (25.8 ppg), Rushing Offense 3rd (176.1 ypg) - 1-7
2005 - Defense 7th (24.5 ppg), Rushing Offense 4th (148.7 ypg) - 6-4
2004 - Defense 9th (22.4 ppg), Rushing Offense 1st (194.9 ypg) - 6-4
2003 - Defense 3rd (16.7 ppg), Rushing Offense 2nd (200.6 ypg) - 6-4

These might help:
Year - Turnovers forced - Offensive plays run/pass - Offensive ppg.
2006 - 5 INTs, 7 fumbles - 345 carries, 311 passes - 24.8 ppg
2005 - 13 INTs, 13 fumbles - 457 carries, 361 passes - 28.9 ppg
2004 - 19 INTs, 11 fumbles - 498 carries, 300 passes - 31.0 ppg
2003 - 18 INTs, 16 fumbles - 514 carries, 270 passes - 21.7 ppg

Luther has a much better passing game now than when they had no proven receivers, two sophomore QBs and two senior RBs going into the 2003 season.  However, it is pretty clear that the run/pass ratio changed pretty dramatically from the middle of the 2005 season to now.  What is frustrating is that the run game has performed much better than many in the conference thought going into the season, yet the Norse have only run it more than 50 times in one conference game.  That game happened to be the Central overtime loss when the Norse ran it 55 times for 219 yards.  That might have been the best performance of the year.

The Luther Defense was a top 3 or a top 4 defense in many categories over at least a five-year period until these last two seasons.  The strength of the defense was forcing turnovers by playing good coverages and being solid against the run.  As it can be seen by the numbers above, the defense has not been able to force turnovers at all this year.  If you ask the Simpson coaches from this weekend, the Norse Defense did not consistently stop the run or play solid in pass coverage.  It is hard to force turnovers when you can't make an offense one-dimensional and put them in some 3rd-and-longs.

[DutchFan2004]

dsquared,

I think it has been tuff for the D-3 voters to give any conference 3 teams in the top 25.  If you look D-3 ranks the WIAC as the tuffest conference in the nation.  Yet they only have 2 schools in the top 25. Others received votes but only 2 teams in the top 25.  With all the good teams out there I don't think it was a lack of love for the evil empire just they are staying to there predictions.  Coe was the favorite to win the IIAC and they got the benefit of the doubt till saturday when Wartburg pulled off the win.  I don't want to put words in the D-3 voters mouths but I would guess that they would call the Wartburg win an upset (at least in their minds).  I can not believe that Coe still received 4 votes for the top 25.  Not that they aren't a good team.  They are still alive mathematically.  But Wartburg has a clear two game lead on them for the AQ.  I don't see the Wartburg D getting beat by two of the remaining three teams on their schedule.  Nothing is settled for the Dutch.  They still have two very good teams to play and a pesky Simpson team that always play the Dutch well.  The Dutch don't have anything sewed up.  Time will tell.  I hope the wins and losses fall into place so that two IIAC teams qualify.  

[DutchFan2004]

Floyd,

I think you are on to something there.  It would be interesting to see what kind of field position that those turnovers gave the offenses in the past as well and how many points were scored off of them.  That would really tell some things I think.  That is a huge story.  Points off of turnovers and field position.  How many points defenses scored.  Those points sure helped the Dutch last year. 

[Walston Hoover]

What kind of shape is Coe's field in today? Will they be able to play anything there the rest of the year? Any thoughts of Fieldturf in the offseason? Sounds like it was in pretty sad shape Saturday?

[DutchFan2004]

Walston,

The Cornell Field took a beating as well.  I think the West end took it worst of all as that is the side of the field that the majority of the game was played on in the second half.  There were places that were very muddy.  There wont be much grass left.