FB: American Rivers Conference

[doolittledog]

Dubuque is ranked 20th in the NCAA AFCA Coaches poll.

http://afca.com/article/article.php?id=2795

Central, Coe, Wartburg receiving votes.  Basically 26th, 32nd, and 36th


Central is ranked 24th in the D3football.com poll

http://www.d3football.com/top25/2016/week4

With Wartburg and Dubuque receiving votes.  In a nutshell 38th and 39th.


Hansen ratings...

http://loganahansen21.wixsite.com/hansen-ratings

20 - Coe
22 - Central
32 - Dubuque
34 - Wartburg
84 - Simpson
110-Loras
113-Luther
133-Buena Vista
149-Nebraska Wesleyan

[Klompen]

Two good match-ups this week with Coe playing Wartburg and Dubuque playing Central.  Once upon a time there would have been a lot of messages this week,  but the board seems to have gone a lot quieter while I was away from it a year ago.  Maybe everyone else is doing what I should be doing and working two jobs to pay the property taxes that will be delinquent at the end of the week.   

Go Dutch!

[Klompen]

https://www.central.edu/athletics/story.cfm?storyID=6663 is the link to the Central write up of the upcoming game.

[HansenRatings]

Two good match-ups this week with Coe playing Wartburg and Dubuque playing Central.  Once upon a time there would have been a lot of messages this week,  but the board seems to have gone a lot quieter while I was away from it a year ago.  Maybe everyone else is doing what I should be doing and working two jobs to pay the property taxes that will be delinquent at the end of the week.   

Go Dutch!

I've been distracted by all of the chatter on the MIAC board after the UST-SJU game. It's been interesting.

Here's how my projections sit for the season going forward:

Team	Current W-L	Projected W-L	Pool A
Coe	4-0	8.4-1.6	36.12%
Central	4-0	8.3-1.7	30.92%
Dubuque	4-0	7.9-2.1	19.48%
Wartburg	2-1	6.5-3.5	12.57%
Simpson	2-2	4.8-5.2	1.07%
Loras	0-4	2.4-7.6	0.00%
Luther	1-2	3.3-6.7	0.16%
Buena Vista	0-4	1.9-7.1	0.00%
Nebraska Wesleyan	1-3	1.5-7.5	0.00%

Should know more about the Top 4 after this weekend, obviously.

[Pat Coleman]

https://www.central.edu/athletics/story.cfm?storyID=6663 is the link to the Central write up of the upcoming game.

This might be something of interest as well. Will go on the front page tomorrow:
http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-region/west/index

[Fannosaurus Rex]

Two good match-ups this week with Coe playing Wartburg and Dubuque playing Central.  Once upon a time there would have been a lot of messages this week,  but the board seems to have gone a lot quieter while I was away from it a year ago.  Maybe everyone else is doing what I should be doing and working two jobs to pay the property taxes that will be delinquent at the end of the week.   

Go Dutch!

I've been distracted by all of the chatter on the MIAC board after the UST-SJU game. It's been interesting.

Here's how my projections sit for the season going forward:

Team	Current W-L	Projected W-L	Pool A
Coe	4-0	8.4-1.6	36.12%
Central	4-0	8.3-1.7	30.92%
Dubuque	4-0	7.9-2.1	19.48%
Wartburg	2-1	6.5-3.5	12.57%
Simpson	2-2	4.8-5.2	1.07%
Loras	0-4	2.4-7.6	0.00%
Luther	1-2	3.3-6.7	0.16%
Buena Vista	0-4	1.9-7.1	0.00%
Nebraska Wesleyan	1-3	1.5-7.5	0.00%

Should know more about the Top 4 after this weekend, obviously.

Oh man!  I hope this has some kind of science behind it because I sure wasn't thinking that  Central is 37% better than UD.

[Fannosaurus Rex]

Of course we all know, football is an art, not a science.

[HansenRatings]

Of course we all know, football is an art, not a science.

As a liberal learner, I have learned to appreciate art through multiple disciplines, including math and probabilities.

I'm not sure I would say Central is 37% better than UD. My model has them favored by a touchdown, with their overall ratings sitting at 0.9269 (Central) and 0.8885 (DBQ).

[doolittledog]

Stupid HansenRatings refusing to be a homer and skew his ratings to put Wartburg as the top team in the conference 

How can I claim conspiracy theories now 

I just want to skip ahead to Saturday and see how things play out.  Pretty sure this weekend won't decide things.  We still have a long way to go.  Unless my Spartans beat Central by 56 on Saturday...then I'm jumping on the Dubuque boat full steam ahead and will just say you should crown us champions now!

[HansenRatings]

Stupid HansenRatings refusing to be a homer and skew his ratings to put Wartburg as the top team in the conference 

How can I claim conspiracy theories now 

I've actually caught some flack from my old coaches for this before, but it doesn't mean that I don't think it personally.

[DrDutch]

Nice article on Sam Markham of the Dutch!  Love to see the personal side of things in these types of articles and I hope you guys keep up the great work at d3football.com!

[Klompen]

Agreed!  Great article on Sam Markham.  Really wish he could have done both basketball and football as he was a big lift and inspiration on the basketball court as well as on the football field.  Hope he decides to stick around and play that fourth year of football, but understandable if he decides to graduate and go on to dental school right away.  Then again, one more season of football vs a few months more over a life time of putting your face in front of peoples' mouths with bad breath?  Is there really that big a hurry? 

Maybe Dr. Dutch can give him some good advice whichever way it might fall.

[5 Words or Less]

Arrrgggh ... pulled hammy playing softball 

[DrDutch]

He has the next 40 years to serve others in the healthcare field, but you only get 4 falls to play college football!  Go Dutch!

[HansenRatings]

Don't know if you all saw the ATN conference rankings are out. One of the reasons I decided to start doing my own rating system was because I was perpetually skeptical of D3Football's rankings of conferences, and other rating systems had some ridiculous results (last year one computer rating had the MIAA as the best conference in the country... *scoff*).

I didn't try to design the model so that the IIAC's average rating was always higher than where D3Football ranked them, but that's the way it has worked out. I'm not sure if their ratings are perpetually inflated by being the fourth best conference in the Midwest (WIAC, MIAC, CCIW), so their SoS numbers get a good boost by playing those teams, but I think one of the main differences between how my ratings work and how humans look at results is the differentiation between WINS and SCORING DIFFERENTIAL. The IIAC tends to play about 0.500 ball or slightly worse against the better conferences, but when they lose, they lose close, which my model gives them credit for.

Anyways, here's my mid-season conference rankings. The IIAC is the sixth best conference in the country.