FB: American Rivers Conference

[Klompen]

Central O does it AGAIN!!!  Fortunately, Central scored in between fumbles to take the lead, but they can't keep putting the defense back out on the field on the first offensive play after getting the ball back.  Doolittle, if you want UD to be alone in first place you might need to mow the lawn FOR THE DUTCH! 

[doolittledog]

Final scores...

Luther wins @ Simpson 24-17
Wartburg hangs on to beat Loras 38-30
Dubuque beats NWU 42-23
Coe beats Central in a wild finish 33-30

[Klompen]

Congratulations to Coe on doing what they had to do to win the game.  Central struggles with field goals when the pressure is on, credit Coe for blocking the tying FG attempt that would have sent the game into OT.  It didn't have to come down to that.  It was points off turnovers that killed the Dutch for the second week in a row.  If we can't hold onto the ball, we can't hold onto a shot at first place, and we don't deserve it.  I really thought this year's team would be able to run the table, so it is disappointing to see them drop out of the conference race this way.  I don't know if the offense could not handle the pressure or if we were simply out played by the defenses.  Either way, this year was our shot at returning to the playoffs and we fumbled it away. 

[DrDutch]

Busy with charity run, youth football and a wedding today, so I tuned in just in time to see the field goal get blocked. Playing for pride now and we will see if the senior class is really a good group of leaders from here on out. 8-2 still would feel nice, but there's some stuff to clean up. Just hang on to the dang ball!  Go Dutch and go IIAC!

[Old Dutch]

Stopped at the game for the first half before Grandpa duties called.  Had high hopes after the 10-0 lead but Coe owned the line of scrimmage for their 16 pts surge before the half. Don't know if Coe made an adjustment or the momentum of the long Heitland run carried them through, but they had the surge and I think this is where the game was lost.  Sure the fumbles hurt, especially deep in our own territory, but it just seemed like a lackluster 10 minutes for the Dutch.

Speaking of lackluster, the running game had no highlights in this one.  We had high hopes for Fitzgerald but he had 0 openings for a chance to make things happen.  91 yards rushing isn't going to win a conference title.  There's a lot fo talent on this team, injuries and now turnovers have taken us out of contention, but I'm with DrDutch, 8-2 is very possible and a good sign that Central really is "back", go get it guys.  Go Dutch!

[doolittledog]

Dubuque Telegraph-Herald write up of the Dubuque/NWU game...

http://www.thonline.com/sports/local_links/article_5b262165-cc29-53e6-864d-a4c4a2a3ffe9.html?utm_source=thonline&utm_medium=click_source&utm_campaign=left_column_news

From the article...

Toomer had a game-high 89 yards receiving and Herrion rushed for 109 yards and a score.

Now the Spartans can look ahead to their showdown with the Kohawks. They are the two remaining unbeaten teams in the IIAC, with Coe edging Central, 33-30.

As was proven on Saturday, no win comes too easy in this conference.

"Whoever wins that game will really be in a good position (to win the conference)," Zweifel said. "If you compare all of our scores, they're almost identical. So it's going to be interesting."


Cedar Rapids Gazette story on the Coe/Central game...

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/coe-blocks-late-field-goal-to-preserve-33-30-victory-over-central-20161008

From the article...

Dylan Stepleton went from helpless to helpful.

Coe's senior defensive back spent the first half watching from the sideline after being penalized for targeting on his first tackle. When his ejection was reversed after a halftime review, Stepleton returned and played a vital role on his final play.

Stepleton was credited with the block of 22-yard field goal attempt in the final seven seconds, preserving Coe's 33-30 Homecoming victory over Central Saturday at Clark Field. The Kohawks (6-0, 4-0) won by three points on a late touchdown and defensive stop for the second straight week.

"It's simply unbelievable," said first-year Coe head coach Tyler Staker, whose team beat Wartburg, 37-34, last week. "Two games in a row where it has come down to the wire like this.

"I told the guys after the game that I'm 33 and fairly young. My heart can't take this."


Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier article, photo gallery, and video of the Wartburg/Loras game...

http://wcfcourier.com/sports/football/update-wartburg-holds-off-loras/article_a31f6061-9c1e-5d0b-b7e7-130e32edde0d.html

From the article...

Wartburg football coach Rick Willis could have done without the added drama Saturday afternoon, yet his Knights managed to keep their composure once momentum flipped to the other sideline.

Loras rallied with a pair of second-half touchdowns and converted two fourth downs on its final drive before Wartburg's defense came up with a red zone stop to preserve a 38-30 Knights' victory inside Walston-Hoover Stadium.

The photo gallery...

http://wcfcourier.com/gallery/photos-wartburg-v-loras-college-football/collection_5c6962b6-0be9-5946-aaa6-b9ac5a4bbf2f.html

And the video...

http://wcfcourier.com/sports/local/wartburg-football-vs-loras/youtube_cfc1dfa6-450b-52be-a997-2c24fd978014.html


Waterloo/Cedar Falls Courier article on the Luther/Simpson game...

http://wcfcourier.com/sports/college/small-college-football-luther-trips-up-simpson/article_5dae0148-49f8-56b8-852a-bfea03066e41.html

From the article...

Simpson had no answer for Luther's running game Saturday as the Norse powered their way to a 24-17 Iowa Conference football triumph.

The Storm (2-3, 1-2) jumped in front on the opening possession and built their lead to 14-3 before the Norse (2-3, 1-2) reeled off 21 unanswered points.

Luther held Simpson to 272 total yards, dominated the time of possession 39:24-20:36, intercepted a pair of passes and allowed just a field goal in the second half.

Quarterback Brady Letney finished with 159 yards on 27 carries and Christian Moore added 143 on 21 attempts for a Norse rushing attack that racked up 328 yards.


Des Moines Register round up of the Simpson/Luther, and Central/Coe games. (and Grinnell/Knox)

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/college/2016/10/08/iowa-small-college-football-roundup-october-eighth/91810980/

[Fannosaurus Rex]

Stopped at the game for the first half before Grandpa duties called.  Had high hopes after the 10-0 lead but Coe owned the line of scrimmage for their 16 pts surge before the half. Don't know if Coe made an adjustment or the momentum of the long Heitland run carried them through, but they had the surge and I think this is where the game was lost.  Sure the fumbles hurt, especially deep in our own territory, but it just seemed like a lackluster 10 minutes for the Dutch.

Speaking of lackluster, the running game had no highlights in this one.  We had high hopes for Fitzgerald but he had 0 openings for a chance to make things happen.  91 yards rushing isn't going to win a conference title.  There's a lot fo talent on this team, injuries and now turnovers have taken us out of contention, but I'm with DrDutch, 8-2 is very possible and a good sign that Central really is "back", go get it guys.  Go Dutch!

8-2 will be barely tolerable this year because to get there, Central will beat Wartburg and loathsome Simpson.

[coocooforcoekohawk]

Nice work Kohawks!

Conference championship next weekend. Go get'em.

Unless Dubuque wins, then the Burger Burglars will be back in the mix.

[doolittledog]

In the rankings...

The AFCA coaches poll...
https://www.afca.com/article/article.php?id=2798

16 - Dubuque
23 - Coe
RV - Central (39)

The d3football.com poll...
http://www.d3football.com/top25/2016/week6

21 - Dubuque
RV - Coe (32)

Hansen Ratings...
http://loganahansen21.wixsite.com/hansen-ratings

23 - Coe
26 - Dubuque
33 - Central
39 - Wartburg
97 - Simpson
107-Luther
112-Loras
113-BVU
125-NWU

Some closely grouped teams there that could see the next few weeks shake up the standings. 

[HansenRatings]

Projections for the rest of the season

Team	Record	Projection	Pool A
Dubuque	6-0 (4-0)	8.9-1.1 (6.9-1.1)	47.69%
Coe	6-0 (4-0)	9.0-1.0 (7.0-1.0)	47.09%
Wartburg	3-2 (2-1)	6.2-3.8 (5.2-2.8)	6.84%
Central	4-2 (2-2)	7.1-2.9 (5.1-2.9)	1.02%
Simpson	2-3 (1-2)	3.9-6.1 (2.9-5.1)	0.05%
Buena Vista	1-4 (1-2)	2.6-7.4 (2.6-5.4)	0.04%
Luther	2-3 (1-2)	3.4-6.6 (2.4-5.6)	0.04%
Nebraska Wesleyan	2-4 (1-3)	3.4-6.6 (2.4-5.6)	0.00%
Loras	0-6 (0-4)	1.5-8.5 (1.5-6.5)	0.00%

Wartburg is the only team other than UD & Coe that seems to have an outside shot right now, but my model's 3-way tie breakers aren't perfect. As a fan, it's nice to know they have a shot still. They have about a 1-in-9 chance of winning out according to the model. I know one of the criteria in the event of a 3-way tie is the "Rose Bowl Rule" (the team with the longest drought gets the bid), but I'm not sure how far down the list that criteria is.

[doolittledog]

In case you're thinking to yourself "I want to spend the next 27:15 watching the UD coaches show" Here is the link...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azV5DScV5k8

[DBQ1965]

And in the Massey ratings ...

Dubuque   51
Coe.           55
Central.     84
Wartburg  89
Neb Wes. 152
Luther       165
Simpso.    166
BV.             187
Loras         196

[HansenRatings]

I've compiled how every team in the country ranks in 13 different computer models, one of which (BCMoore) is done by a math professor at Iowa State.

Team	Hansen	BCMoore	Born	CSL	Dolphin	HERO	Laz	Massey	Pugh	Soren	Waits	Wilson	Wrathell
Coe	23	38	28	7	20	42	30	46	19	44	29	37	14
Dubuque	26	48	27	9	48	41	42	42	18	51	29	47	34
Central	33	59	51	71	67	84	76	74	66	91	48	88	49
Wartburg	39	60	56	98	43	46	86	77	85	100	51	73	37
Nebraska Wesleyan	125	135	139	164	141	161	146	141	118	133	80	93	139
Luther	107	149	110	131	161	152	145	154	119	152	95	109	135
Simpson	97	171	127	133	140	127	167	156	133	163	107	132	128
Loras	112	157	132	229	163	138	200	182	210	206	140	208	149
Buena Vista	113	177	147	167	179	191	189	176	189	204	133	174	154

Pretty much every computer model agrees that Dubuque & Coe are the two best teams in the conference this season, Wartburg and Central are the next best, but there's quite a bit of disagreement about how to sort out the bottom 5.

[5 Words or Less]

I've compiled how every team in the country ranks in 13 different computer models, one of which (BCMoore) is done by a math professor at Iowa State.

Team	Hansen	BCMoore	Born	CSL	Dolphin	HERO	Laz	Massey	Pugh	Soren	Waits	Wilson	Wrathell
Coe	23	38	28	7	20	42	30	46	19	44	29	37	14
Dubuque	26	48	27	9	48	41	42	42	18	51	29	47	34
Central	33	59	51	71	67	84	76	74	66	91	48	88	49
Wartburg	39	60	56	98	43	46	86	77	85	100	51	73	37
Nebraska Wesleyan	125	135	139	164	141	161	146	141	118	133	80	93	139
Luther	107	149	110	131	161	152	145	154	119	152	95	109	135
Simpson	97	171	127	133	140	127	167	156	133	163	107	132	128
Loras	112	157	132	229	163	138	200	182	210	206	140	208	149
Buena Vista	113	177	147	167	179	191	189	176	189	204	133	174	154

Pretty much every computer model agrees that Dubuque & Coe are the two best teams in the conference this season, Wartburg and Central are the next best, but there's quite a bit of disagreement about how to sort out the bottom 5.

Coe outranks UD 2:1

[doolittledog]

I've compiled how every team in the country ranks in 13 different computer models, one of which (BCMoore) is done by a math professor at Iowa State.

Team	Hansen	BCMoore	Born	CSL	Dolphin	HERO	Laz	Massey	Pugh	Soren	Waits	Wilson	Wrathell
Coe	23	38	28	7	20	42	30	46	19	44	29	37	14
Dubuque	26	48	27	9	48	41	42	42	18	51	29	47	34
Central	33	59	51	71	67	84	76	74	66	91	48	88	49
Wartburg	39	60	56	98	43	46	86	77	85	100	51	73	37
Nebraska Wesleyan	125	135	139	164	141	161	146	141	118	133	80	93	139
Luther	107	149	110	131	161	152	145	154	119	152	95	109	135
Simpson	97	171	127	133	140	127	167	156	133	163	107	132	128
Loras	112	157	132	229	163	138	200	182	210	206	140	208	149
Buena Vista	113	177	147	167	179	191	189	176	189	204	133	174	154

Pretty much every computer model agrees that Dubuque & Coe are the two best teams in the conference this season, Wartburg and Central are the next best, but there's quite a bit of disagreement about how to sort out the bottom 5.

Coe outranks UD 2:1

Oh crap