FB: American Rivers Conference

[DBQ1965]

Hansen ... I've read 9 of your pre-season predictions and appreciate the work you put into all of that.   We'll see how it all platys out.  Anyway ... thank you.

[5 Words or Less]

Here's my statistical analysis

[HansenRatings]

Decided to look at returning starters for each team (according to officially-reported NCAA statistics, which are actually kinda terrible for Games Started). Coe lost a lot, and it was also pretty crazy how stable their roster was last year. Saying they were lucky last year to go undefeated doesn't just recognize their in-game win probabilities, but also the unlikelihood that an entire roster can stay healthy for an entire season. It pains me to say that UD might win the conference next year. Green means improvement thanks to returning starters; those in red got worse. Overall, the conference is losing way more starters than is typical. On average, a team will have a total of 14 or 15 returning starters, and only UD and BVU have more than that.

Team	Rating	Overall	Conference
Dubuque	0.9448	8.1-1.9	6.8-1.2
Wartburg	0.8824	7.1-2.9	5.9-2.1
Central	0.8696	7.0-3.0	5.7-2.3
Coe	0.8104	6.4-3.6	5.1-2.9
BVU	0.6511	4.0-5.0	3.7-4.3
Simpson	0.6067	4.5-5.5	3.4-4.6
NWU	0.4715	2.7-7.3	2.5-5.5
Luther	0.3730	2.5-7.5	1.8-6.2
Loras	0.2263	1.8-8.2	1.1-6.9

[DBQ1965]

Decided to look at returning starters for each team (according to officially-reported NCAA statistics, which are actually kinda terrible for Games Started). Coe lost a lot, and it was also pretty crazy how stable their roster was last year. Saying they were lucky last year to go undefeated doesn't just recognize their in-game win probabilities, but also the unlikelihood that an entire roster can stay healthy for an entire season. It pains me to say that UD might win the conference next year. Green means improvement thanks to returning starters; those in red got worse. Overall, the conference is losing way more starters than is typical. On average, a team will have a total of 14 or 15 returning starters, and only UD and BVU have more than that.

Team	Rating	Overall	Conference
Dubuque	0.9448	8.1-1.9	6.8-1.2
Wartburg	0.8824	7.1-2.9	5.9-2.1
Central	0.8696	7.0-3.0	5.7-2.3
Coe	0.8104	6.4-3.6	5.1-2.9
BVU	0.6511	4.0-5.0	3.7-4.3
Simpson	0.6067	4.5-5.5	3.4-4.6
NWU	0.4715	2.7-7.3	2.5-5.5
Luther	0.3730	2.5-7.5	1.8-6.2
Loras	0.2263	1.8-8.2	1.1-6.9

Now I  appreciate your work even more.

[doolittledog]

Decided to look at returning starters for each team (according to officially-reported NCAA statistics, which are actually kinda terrible for Games Started). Coe lost a lot, and it was also pretty crazy how stable their roster was last year. Saying they were lucky last year to go undefeated doesn't just recognize their in-game win probabilities, but also the unlikelihood that an entire roster can stay healthy for an entire season. It pains me to say that UD might win the conference next year. Green means improvement thanks to returning starters; those in red got worse. Overall, the conference is losing way more starters than is typical. On average, a team will have a total of 14 or 15 returning starters, and only UD and BVU have more than that.

Team	Rating	Overall	Conference
Dubuque	0.9448	8.1-1.9	6.8-1.2
Wartburg	0.8824	7.1-2.9	5.9-2.1
Central	0.8696	7.0-3.0	5.7-2.3
Coe	0.8104	6.4-3.6	5.1-2.9
BVU	0.6511	4.0-5.0	3.7-4.3
Simpson	0.6067	4.5-5.5	3.4-4.6
NWU	0.4715	2.7-7.3	2.5-5.5
Luther	0.3730	2.5-7.5	1.8-6.2
Loras	0.2263	1.8-8.2	1.1-6.9

When you pick UD for 4th place you obviously have rocks in your head and don't know what you are doing.  When you pick UD to win the conference you are obviously a genius, a brilliant mind that more people need to take notice of 

Thanks for all you do, love reading your work.  Just makes me wish I had paid attention during stats class!

[5 Words or Less]

Some pre-2011 turf having issues

"Duraspine (product marketed by FieldTurf) is not all that it's cracked up to be especially in terms of wear resistance." FieldTurf co-founder John Gilman
http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/tattered-turf-leads-to-lawsuits-nationally-annoyance-in-iowa-20170611

[5 Words or Less]

College investments transforming Cedar Rapids

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/local/neighborhoods-forge-a-new-area-x2014-the-college-district-x2014-in-northeast-cedar-rapids-20170610

• Coe's $21 million athletic and recreation center is on schedule for completion this summer.
• Coe also just finished $3 million in renovations at Hickok Hall.
• Mount Mercy's 22-acre $16 million Robert W. Plaster Athletic Complex with baseball, softball and soccer fields
• CeMar Trail extension links Mount Mercy, Coe and the Mound View area
• City developing a College District Action Plan to guide and nurture future development

[doolittledog]

HansenRatings getting famous...doing podcasts 

https://noontimesports.com/2017/06/21/noontime-sports-the-podcast-episode-25-logan-hansen-hansen-ratings/

Don't understand everything he says when talking numbers, but appreciate what he does. 

So he is a Wartburg AND Cyclone fan...oy vey 

[doolittledog]

Some pre-2011 turf having issues

"Duraspine (product marketed by FieldTurf) is not all that it's cracked up to be especially in terms of wear resistance." FieldTurf co-founder John Gilman
http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/tattered-turf-leads-to-lawsuits-nationally-annoyance-in-iowa-20170611

So in the late 80's there was a great rush of D1 schools going from turf, to grass citing safety concerns.  Then in the early part of the millennium those same schools running back to turf, citing safety concerns and most D3 schools joined them in moving to turf.  I wonder how long it will take for grass to become popular again...because of safety?

[doolittledog]

College investments transforming Cedar Rapids

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/local/neighborhoods-forge-a-new-area-x2014-the-college-district-x2014-in-northeast-cedar-rapids-20170610

• Coe's $21 million athletic and recreation center is on schedule for completion this summer.
• Coe also just finished $3 million in renovations at Hickok Hall.
• Mount Mercy's 22-acre $16 million Robert W. Plaster Athletic Complex with baseball, softball and soccer fields
• CeMar Trail extension links Mount Mercy, Coe and the Mound View area
• City developing a College District Action Plan to guide and nurture future development

With local leaders wanting neighborhood populations to ditch their cars, you could argue the immediate neighborhood around Coe might start to boost attendance numbers at the school. 

[HansenRatings]

HansenRatings getting famous...doing podcasts 

https://noontimesports.com/2017/06/21/noontime-sports-the-podcast-episode-25-logan-hansen-hansen-ratings/

Don't understand everything he says when talking numbers, but appreciate what he does.

Just be glad I didn't start talking about Bayes Theorem when I was explaining how I come up with my preseason rankings, could have lost some listeners real quick.

[Purple Heys]

College investments transforming Cedar Rapids

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/local/neighborhoods-forge-a-new-area-x2014-the-college-district-x2014-in-northeast-cedar-rapids-20170610

• Coe's $21 million athletic and recreation center is on schedule for completion this summer.
• Coe also just finished $3 million in renovations at Hickok Hall.
• Mount Mercy's 22-acre $16 million Robert W. Plaster Athletic Complex with baseball, softball and soccer fields
• CeMar Trail extension links Mount Mercy, Coe and the Mound View area
• City developing a College District Action Plan to guide and nurture future development

With local leaders wanting neighborhood populations to ditch their cars, you could argue the immediate neighborhood around Coe might start to boost attendance numbers at the school.

Presume they would finally enact that "No Pitchforks" ordinance in the local neighborhood too...

[doolittledog]

70 days until the 1st weekend of football.  Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

[doolittledog]

Part of the $26 million in sports facilities improvements at Luther are going towards blue turf at Carlson Stadium.  The Norse way of paying homage to Boise St.  Perhaps some of that other $20+ million could go towards imitating Arkansas St with their recent stadium renovations and put in ...waterfalls



https://sports.yahoo.com/renovations-arkansas-state-stadium-include-waterfalls-193507761.html

Of course, Luther could do them one better...include a water slide and luxury suites!

[DBQ1965]

70 days until the 1st weekend of football.  Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

On that note ... I just ordered the 2017 edition of Kickoff.  Have you?

Go Spartans!