FB: American Rivers Conference

[doolittledog]

Whew...Dubuque eeks out a 27-24 win over Loras.

Got home just in time to see the refs swallow their flag when the Dubuque punter was roughed with 2 minutes left in the game and then watched Loras drive from their 15 to the Dubuque 40 before missing what would have been the game tying FG. 

A win is a win is a win. 

[5 Words or Less]

Parity rules this year's IIAC 

[doolittledog]

Parity rules this year's IIAC 

BVU with the win over Central ...in OT
NWU lead Coe at halftime before Coe took the 35-25 win
Simpson lead Wartburg at halftime before the Knights won 40-31
Dubuque held on for a 27-24 win over Loras

At this point, I'm thinking we are in for an interesting conference season. 

I also think I might need to wait until Purple Heys and 5WOL make their picks.  They both picked the BVU upset 

[5 Words or Less]

Is Central's remarkable 56-year run of winning football coming to an end?  I've thought that several times over the past decade with obvious result ... but is this year that Old Dutch is forced to delete a line from the signature in his Forum Profile?  The 1-2 Dutch have pending engagements with three IIAC teams ranked ahead in the preseason coaches poll and the rest of their schedule appears full of dark horses that all seem capable of winning on any given Saturday. 

This isn't Coach McMartin's first rabbit hunt and I'm sure he's looking at options to wake his sleeping giant.  Perhaps all the Dutch need is a healthy return of their starting quarterback. 

Sincerely yours,
5 Words or More

[doolittledog]

November 4th, in Decorah, 5WOL runs into some Central fans that would like to have a word with him 



I think the Dutch offense seems ok.  The Dutch defense looks more like the problem to me.  I say this in September and now we'll probably see Central shut out my Spartans in November 

It will be interesting to see how the Dutch respond.  I'm curious to see what HansenRatings has to say about all this.  Or if his ratings can project from here what final records will be.

[Phred]

Parity rules this year's IIAC 

Perhaps this the year for Luther to surge to three wins.

[Old Dutch]

First of all props to 5 Words and Purple Heys on picking the upset.  Maybe they got a look at the injury report.   

I don't know but it looks like a very promising season is leaking down their legs.  The injuries are on the offensive side and the poor play is all around.  In the previous decade Central won three titles while being outgained week by week.  The secret was bend but don't break defense and win the turnover battle.  That ain't happenin' now.  As far as 5 Words ominuos take on the streak we shall see.  I think it was 1978 when we started 0-3 then Schip righted the ship, did what had to be done and we ended up in a 4 way tie for the title, (After blocking the possible tying PAT vs Simpson in the last minutes of the last game.) 

Just about the time when I was about to shred my red shirts, I see all kinds of close game scores in the IIAC, with favorites threatened across the board.  There is hope, but hope is not a strategy.  Something's gotta happen to keep me pickin' Dutch every week!

By the Way, How Bout' those Cubbies, sweeping the Cards!!!  There, that feels better.  Go Dutch

[doolittledog]

Let's see if I can spot some trends...

Central in conference play...
2013 - 4 wins, 2014 - 6 wins, 2015 - 4 wins, 2016 - 6 wins, 2017 - 4 wins???

Luther in conference play...
2007 - 4 wins, 2008 - 4 wins, 2009 - 4 wins, 2010 - 4 wins
2014 - 2 wins, 2015 - 2 wins, 2016 - 2 wins, 2017 - 2 wins???

Wartburg in conference play...
2014 - 7 wins, 2015 - 6 wins, 2016 - 5 wins, 2017 - 4 wins???

[doolittledog]

The Iowa Conference in the polls...

D3football.com top 25...
http://www.d3football.com/top25/2017/week3

RV - Coe (26th)
RV - Wartburg (29th)
RV - Dubuque (39th)

AFCA Coaches poll...
https://www.afca.com/afca/Article?aname=POLL_DIII_2017_WEEK1&utm_campaign=coschedule&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=WeAreAFCA&utm_content=Defending%20National%20Champions%20Mary%20Hardin-Baylor,%20Open%20Up%20First%20Coaches%20Poll%20at%20No.%201

25 - Dubuque
RV - Coe (26th)
RV - Wartburg (33rd)

Hansen Ratings...
https://www.hansenratings.com/

24 - Wartburg
33 - Dubuque
41 - Coe
63 - Central
97 - Simpson
116 - BVU
119 - Luther
122 - NWU
134 - Loras

[badgerwarhawk]

Where is Hansen?  He didn't make his picks in our pickem this week and I haven't seen him around lately. 

[doolittledog]

Where is Hansen?  He didn't make his picks in our pickem this week and I haven't seen him around lately.

He got busy with grad school and spaced things off last week.  Told me he will be back soon. 

[HansenRatings]

I'm back. Last week was a little crazy. Travelling for work and trying to get in the groove with some online engineering courses.

As it sits right now, here's the "Most Likely" records for each team, and their probability of earning the Pool A bid:

Wartburg	9-1	(7-1)	39%
Dubuque	9-1	(7-1)	32%
Coe	8-2	(6-2)	20%
Central	5-5	(4-4)	5%
Buena Vista	4-6	(3-5)	2%
Simpson	4-6	(3-5)	1%
Luther	3-7	(2-6)	1%
Loras	3-7	(2-6)	<1%
Nebraska Wesleyan	2-8	(2-6)	<1%

There's a pretty wide range of possibilities for each team. Heck, Loras has 1-in-6 chances of finishing 0.500 or better. You can check out for yourself here: https://loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

I wouldn't really call BVU's win much of a fluke either: they didn't give up a single sack on 42 passing attempts, and scored or got a first down on nearly 1/2 of their drop-backs (19/42). If you're Central and you can't pass the ball yourself, you have to do better than that on defense. Also, although Central had more total offense (555 to 463, +92), BVU outgained Central in special teams & turnover yardage by 232 yards, 159 on special teams and 73 in interception returns. The interception yardage isn't going to be consistent game-to-game, but giving up 159 yards of field position in special teams should be cause for concern (but fix-able). Coach Willis is fond of the adage "100 yards of field position is worth 7 points." From some of the research I've done, it's actually more valuable than that, with 80 yards being worth 6 points (because teams hardly ever have to travel a full 100 yards to score). That means Central gave up about 12 net points just in field position on special teams. That's bad.

[Purple Heys]

I wouldn't really call BVU's win much of a fluke either: they didn't give up a single sack on 42 passing attempts, and scored or got a first down on nearly 1/2 of their drop-backs (19/42). If you're Central and you can't pass the ball yourself, you have to do better than that on defense. Also, although Central had more total offense (555 to 463, +92), BVU outgained Central in special teams & turnover yardage by 232 yards, 159 on special teams and 73 in interception returns. The interception yardage isn't going to be consistent game-to-game, but giving up 159 yards of field position in special teams should be cause for concern (but fix-able). Coach Willis is fond of the adage "100 yards of field position is worth 7 points." From some of the research I've done, it's actually more valuable than that, with 80 yards being worth 6 points (because teams hardly ever have to travel a full 100 yards to score). That means Central gave up about 12 net points just in field position on special teams. That's bad.

Awesome analysis...Me, I think my left butt cheek had an itch; that's why I picked BV.   

[Fannosaurus Rex]

If "Voice of the Dutch," is reading this, I am heading to homecoming.  Who should I patronize in Pella and say, "I'm in here because you sponsor Central sports on KRLS?"

[doolittledog]

Dubuque leading Luther 7-0 halftime. UD gets the ball to start the 2nd half