FB: American Rivers Conference

[Old Dutch]

Luther are the story of the conference so far this year.  Fun to see them having some success.  I will watch the UD/BVU replay later.  There is a chance, with time to calm down from the heat of the moment, that I will realize the refs weren't as bad as I initially thought 

I wonder if I watch Central game again if i could realize the Dutch aren't as bad as I originally thought?

[Fannosaurus Rex]

Geez give me something to get me to Saturday.  How about this, Central averages 5.7 yards per rush versus only 4.2 for The Warts?

I've been developing a new system to rank teams according to their efficiency (rate of 1st downs & TDs) and explosiveness (yards per play), with points per drive included to account for finishing drives & field position. The scale is essentially points/game that each unit is responsible for. For an offense, positive is good, for a defense, negative is good. Here's the Wartburg/Central breakdown, with each team's national ranks in parenthesis:

Team	RushO	PassO	TotalO	RushD	PassD	TotalD	Overall
Wartburg	2.45 (50)	7.46 (14)	13.37 (23)	-3.17 (34)	-2.42 (70)	-9.36 (39)	22.73 (20)
Central	4.67 (16)	5.23 (33)	12.91 (25)	-4.12 (21)	-4.44 (36)	-7.42 (52)	20.33 (30)

The difference comes down to the passing game. It's the only edge either team has on the other, and it favors the offense for each team. That Central's RushD & PassD numbers are both better than their TotalD means that their offense is either giving up too many short fields, or that the red zone defense isn't great. They currently rank 158th in red zone scoring percentage in the country, so I would lean more towards the latter. My traditional model projects this as a 5.5-point Wartburg win, but the new model gives Central a 1-point advantage thanks to home-field. Difference will come down to big plays in the passing game, and red zone defense.

So much for science.  From now on I believe the world is flat and global warming is a hoax made up by the Chinese.

[HansenRatings]

Geez give me something to get me to Saturday.  How about this, Central averages 5.7 yards per rush versus only 4.2 for The Warts?

I've been developing a new system to rank teams according to their efficiency (rate of 1st downs & TDs) and explosiveness (yards per play), with points per drive included to account for finishing drives & field position. The scale is essentially points/game that each unit is responsible for. For an offense, positive is good, for a defense, negative is good. Here's the Wartburg/Central breakdown, with each team's national ranks in parenthesis:

Team	RushO	PassO	TotalO	RushD	PassD	TotalD	Overall
Wartburg	2.45 (50)	7.46 (14)	13.37 (23)	-3.17 (34)	-2.42 (70)	-9.36 (39)	22.73 (20)
Central	4.67 (16)	5.23 (33)	12.91 (25)	-4.12 (21)	-4.44 (36)	-7.42 (52)	20.33 (30)

The difference comes down to the passing game. It's the only edge either team has on the other, and it favors the offense for each team. That Central's RushD & PassD numbers are both better than their TotalD means that their offense is either giving up too many short fields, or that the red zone defense isn't great. They currently rank 158th in red zone scoring percentage in the country, so I would lean more towards the latter. My traditional model projects this as a 5.5-point Wartburg win, but the new model gives Central a 1-point advantage thanks to home-field. Difference will come down to big plays in the passing game, and red zone defense.

So much for science.  From now on I believe the world is flat and global warming is a hoax made up by the Chinese.

I would argue that Wartburg's passing offense definitely proved their advantage over Central's pass defense, but Wartburg's D-Line destroyed any advantage Central may have had through the air.

[OrangeAndBlack]

Congratulations to the Knights on their D3 Top 25 ranking.  Stay healthy and keep up the good work.

[5 Words or Less]

It's too quiet for mid-season

[HansenRatings]

It's too quiet for mid-season

Does it always get like this when Wartburg is rolling? Y'all just don't want to acknowledge the true hierarchy of the IIAC?

[D3MAFAN]

It's too quiet for mid-season

Does it always get like this when Wartburg is rolling? Y'all just don't want to acknowledge the true hierarchy of the IIAC?

Hansen do you have data to back up that claim? 

[doolittledog]

It's too quiet for mid-season

Does it always get like this when Wartburg is rolling? Y'all just don't want to acknowledge the true hierarchy of the IIAC?

But there are two IIAC teams with more recent conference titles than Wartburg 

[HansenRatings]

DO I HAVE DATA? YOU BEST YOUR @$$ I HAVE DATA

Over the last 20 years (excluding NWU, Cornell, UIU, & William Penn):

Team	Conf W%	Conf Point Differential
Wartburg	0.836	+2595
Central	0.788	+2246
Coe	0.667	+1498
Simpson	0.494	+247
Buena Vista	0.488	-365
Luther	0.371	-899
Loras	0.344	-1249
Dubuque	0.340	-1354

Same Table, Weighted by most recent seasons (where 1998 has a weight of 1, 1999 a weight of 2, 2000 a weight of 3)

Team	Conf W%	Conf Point Differential
Wartburg	0.814	+2250
Central	0.736	+1893
Coe	0.698	+1730
Dubuque	0.487	+77
Simpson	0.438	-329
Buena Vista	0.434	-811
Luther	0.367	-987
Loras	0.300	-1753

Conference Championships (including ties), last 19 seasons
Wartburg - 8
Central - 8
Coe - 5
Dubuque - 2

Conference Championships (with tie-breakers), last 19 seasons
Wartburg - 7
Central - 7
Coe - 3
Dubuque - 2

So yeah, I would say Wartburg is probably the best program in the IIAC.

[doolittledog]

That's good data, because that goes back to when Coe joined the IIAC.  Back when Coe was joining the IIAC after the 1997 season (75th anniversary) the conference titles looked like this...

22 - Central
12 - Simpson
11 - Luther
07 - Upper Iowa
06 - Dubuque
06 - Wartburg
04 - Buena Vista
04 - William Penn
00 - Loras

Wartburg owes a big debt of gratitude to Mr. Willis.  Through the 75th anniversary year of the conference Wartburg was the definition of a run-of-the-mill football program.  Those 8 titles Wartburg won over a 16 year period between 99-14 go a long way towards making Wartburg look like a traditional power 

50th anniversary of the IIAC...
10 - Luther
08 - Central
08 - Simpson
07 - Upper Iowa
03 - Dubuque
03 - Wartburg
02 - Buena Vista
02 - William Penn

[HansenRatings]

Is there a source anywhere that would have the all-time IIAC records year-by-year? Can't find anything on the IIAC page.

[doolittledog]

Is there a source anywhere that would have the all-time IIAC records year-by-year? Can't find anything on the IIAC page.

I have a book that chronicled the IIAC through the early 60's.  A few of on here have a copy of that book.  The problem is prior to 1950 many of the schools rarely played each other.  I think the real stats really occur from 1950 to present. 

I'll see if I can dig up that book title for you.  You might be able to find it on ebay.  They invented some weird algorithm a stats guy like you would like to determine a conference champion way back in the day because sometimes you would have a team at 7-1 in conference play and another team at 3-0 in conference play.   

[Fannosaurus Rex]

The printed Central homecoming program lists all of the IIAC champs since 1924.  Central's online media guide shows all of their scores back to 189something.  If the other IIAC schools do the same, a stats freak could really knock himself out.  Except what does it say on your mutual fund prospectus?  Something about how past performance is not a prediction of future results.

[HansenRatings]

The printed Central homecoming program lists all of the IIAC champs since 1924.  Central's online media guide shows all of their scores back to 189something.  If the other IIAC schools do the same, a stats freak could really knock himself out.  Except what does it say on your mutual fund prospectus?  Something about how past performance is not a prediction of future results.

I found that stuff on Central's site, and that book is on its way. I found it on Amazon for $5. That'll probably be more of an off-season project. I look forward to being able to add another Wartburg conference championship to the list.

[MediaGuy]

Quick note: due to impending weather the Wartburg v Loras game in Waverly will start at 12:30 cst...moved up 1 hour from scheduled start