FB: American Rivers Conference

[USee]

Not following

I'm saying the CCIW wasn't a good conference this year. MIAC and WIAC were pretty good.

Why are those conferences "pretty good"? Bethel beat North Park and UWP. St johns beat Aurora and Martin Luther and then those two played 2 tight contests. So because Bethel beat North Park but Millikin lost to a playoff team in Greenville the MIAC is great and the CCIW is weak? UWW beat Carthage, but they also beat 2 playoff teams in Salisbury and UWL.

I am not suggesting the MIAC  and the WIAC are not great conferences. Nor am I suggesting the CCIW wasn't down this year. I just don't think you can say Central is great and their stats count because they beat Bethel and Wheaton's stats and record is suspect because they didn't beat a good team. No one questioned Wheaton's strength in 2019 because they beat NCC by 14. They return the same defensive front (better in my opinion) and  only 1 team has scored more than 2x against their 1st team defense, and that was at the end when they were taking more chances to get the ball back. That same defense held Aurora to 13 pts while St Johns (a higher rated defense) gave up 33. Is Aurora's offense a joke at #12 in the country because they didn't play anyone and got shut out by NCC? Maybe it's St Johns defense that is pretending?  What about North Central's offense at #2? is that a mirage?

I don't know what this all means and I could make an argument for either team to be significantly favored this week, so I think a pickem is accurate.

[USee]

Bleed, I would usually say the same thing about UWW. I am not sure if they are championship UWW or 2019 UWW. I think they are closer to championship UWW than 2019. A big reason I think that is because of your opinion. You have watched them for a long time and know what a champion looks like. So I trust your opinion because you've been right a bunch (and wrong some too) and you say this is a different team than 2019.

I would love to see how Wheaton and NCC stack up against the WIAC and we will know part of that after this weekend and certainly the rest after next weekend, depending on the result of this weekend.

[Marmac]

Not following

I'm saying the CCIW wasn't a good conference this year. MIAC and WIAC were pretty good.

If Wheaton beats Central and North Central beats UWL, will you still believe that the CCIW "wasn't good" and the MIAC was "pretty good"?

If your conference has a pair of Top 8 teams, you have, at the very least, a pretty good conference.

And if Wheaton beats the team that just thumped the MIAC's second best team, I don't see how the MIAC can be viewed as stronger than the CCIW.

But let's see what happens on Saturday...

[Thunderdome21]

Great article that breaks down the game and Wheaton from Central's point of view.

https://athletics.central.edu/news/2021/11/24/football-central-prepares-for-ncaa-football-playoff-rematch.aspx?fbclid=IwAR16yxjZav4N_ezEu9HEgzRZaW6wCj8kiZkGcp52rMHkBKGXqUKQn5DpAxg

[USee]

Not following

I'm saying the CCIW wasn't a good conference this year. MIAC and WIAC were pretty good.

If Wheaton beats Central and North Central beats UWL, will you still believe that the CCIW "wasn't good" and the MIAC was "pretty good"?

If your conference has a pair of Top 8 teams, you have, at the very least, a pretty good conference.

And if Wheaton beats the team that just thumped the MIAC's second best team, I don't see how the MIAC can be viewed as stronger than the CCIW.

But let's see what happens on Saturday...

Well there are more than 2 teams in the MIAC and CCIW. Conference strength is measured top to bottom. Your argument could hold if we are measuring the top 2 from each conference, given the result you presented.

[Schipper Strong]

Lots of information on how good Wheaton is this year being posted. Welcome to all the posters from various regions and conferences. Seems a lot of confidence in Wheaton's O&D lines, their defense, their offense, sacking ability, kickoffs, etc. I'm ready for a good game on Saturday. I have been looking at the stats and scores and just can't quite reconcile NCC only scoring 20 points or Wheaton only scoring 7 in their game. The game befuddles me. Then again so does Central's game with St Olaf a bit. I chalk it up to early season games. 

My prediction is Central 41, Wheaton 28. I have said all season that this is the best Central team I have seen and I have seen the best of them. Everyone knows about our QB who has been practicing his 3 second release all week. You all saw or read about how outstanding our punt and kick returns were last week. Our D-line may be behind Wheaton in sacks, but our starting D-line is pretty good against the run. Blade Durbala and Hunter Maddy are two guys you wish hadn't come back for a 5th year. Your QB will be hunted and feel stuck by Blade a few times. A large number of running stats were improved in the second half of many games when the starters were benched. Maybe Wheaton's second stringers are better than ours, but I doubt we'll play many of them Saturday. Our secondary is playing very well. Egli and Bannister are gifted athletes that both started out as QBs, but were too good to play behind Hawkins. Van Gysel at LB was a tremendous addition to the defense when he premiered last spring. The kid will be AA before he graduates. Our O-line is really strong and tends to give Hawkins a lot of time, but I'm sure he is practicing his quick throws anyway. It will be interesting to see how both lines match up this weekend. Jason Hopp is a good running back and with the Wheaton defense he may be tested. He is fighting injury so we may have to focus on passing. If only we had the QB and receivers up to the task. 

[WashedUpCard]

Lots of information on how good Wheaton is this year being posted. Welcome to all the posters from various regions and conferences. Seems a lot of confidence in Wheaton's O&D lines, their defense, their offense, sacking ability, kickoffs, etc. I'm ready for a good game on Saturday. I have been looking at the stats and scores and just can't quite reconcile NCC only scoring 20 points or Wheaton only scoring 7 in their game. The game befuddles me. Then again so does Central's game with St Olaf a bit. I chalk it up to early season games. 

My prediction is Central 41, Wheaton 28. I have said all season that this is the best Central team I have seen and I have seen the best of them. Everyone knows about our QB who has been practicing his 3 second release all week. You all saw or read about how outstanding our punt and kick returns were last week. Our D-line may be behind Wheaton in sacks, but our starting D-line is pretty good against the run. Blade Durbala and Hunter Maddy are two guys you wish hadn't come back for a 5th year. Your QB will be hunted and feel stuck by Blade a few times. A large number of running stats were improved in the second half of many games when the starters were benched. Maybe Wheaton's second stringers are better than ours, but I doubt we'll play many of them Saturday. Our secondary is playing very well. Egli and Bannister are gifted athletes that both started out as QBs, but were too good to play behind Hawkins. Van Gysel at LB was a tremendous addition to the defense when he premiered last spring. The kid will be AA before he graduates. Our O-line is really strong and tends to give Hawkins a lot of time, but I'm sure he is practicing his quick throws anyway. It will be interesting to see how both lines match up this weekend. Jason Hopp is a good running back and with the Wheaton defense he may be tested. He is fighting injury so we may have to focus on passing. If only we had the QB and receivers up to the task. 

Regarding the NCC-Wheaton result - I think there is something to be said about two teams being ultra-familiar with one another.  Both teams knew exactly what to expect coming into that game (within reason).  I think you saw the same thing play out in the UWW-UWL game.

I don't see Central hanging 41 on Wheaton.  If they do, I'll donate 100 bucks to the charity of your choosing.

[USee]

Lots of information on how good Wheaton is this year being posted. Welcome to all the posters from various regions and conferences. Seems a lot of confidence in Wheaton's O&D lines, their defense, their offense, sacking ability, kickoffs, etc. I'm ready for a good game on Saturday. I have been looking at the stats and scores and just can't quite reconcile NCC only scoring 20 points or Wheaton only scoring 7 in their game. The game befuddles me. Then again so does Central's game with St Olaf a bit. I chalk it up to early season games. 

My prediction is Central 41, Wheaton 28. I have said all season that this is the best Central team I have seen and I have seen the best of them. Everyone knows about our QB who has been practicing his 3 second release all week. You all saw or read about how outstanding our punt and kick returns were last week. Our D-line may be behind Wheaton in sacks, but our starting D-line is pretty good against the run. Blade Durbala and Hunter Maddy are two guys you wish hadn't come back for a 5th year. Your QB will be hunted and feel stuck by Blade a few times. A large number of running stats were improved in the second half of many games when the starters were benched. Maybe Wheaton's second stringers are better than ours, but I doubt we'll play many of them Saturday. Our secondary is playing very well. Egli and Bannister are gifted athletes that both started out as QBs, but were too good to play behind Hawkins. Van Gysel at LB was a tremendous addition to the defense when he premiered last spring. The kid will be AA before he graduates. Our O-line is really strong and tends to give Hawkins a lot of time, but I'm sure he is practicing his quick throws anyway. It will be interesting to see how both lines match up this weekend. Jason Hopp is a good running back and with the Wheaton defense he may be tested. He is fighting injury so we may have to focus on passing. If only we had the QB and receivers up to the task. 

You beat me to it. I was going to post my thoughts on Central but haven't finished them yet. Perhaps you would have more people talking about Central if you had more posters? I guess it's better than total silence on the boards, No?

[bleedpurple]

Bleed, I would usually say the same thing about UWW. I am not sure if they are championship UWW or 2019 UWW. I think they are closer to championship UWW than 2019. A big reason I think that is because of your opinion. You have watched them for a long time and know what a champion looks like. So I trust your opinion because you've been right a bunch (and wrong some too) and you say this is a different team than 2019.

I would love to see how Wheaton and NCC stack up against the WIAC and we will know part of that after this weekend and certainly the rest after next weekend, depending on the result of this weekend.

I appreciate the vote of confidence.  I have a feeling we will see how Wheaton and NCC stack up against the WIAC over the next couple of weeks.  I suspect, for the reasons you have cited, that Wheaton is a great team.

I definitely stand by my thoughts on UW-W.  They are much faster than they were in 2019. They also have a much more of a multiple scheme on offense which. make them more difficult to defend.  The QB play is stronger this year.. And they are significantly healthier than they were at the end of 2019 as well.

But here is the thing.  To me, the extra year of eligibility that so many athletes across the board are taking advantage of is a huge unknown for anyone trying to do any predicting of these games. To read that Wheaton has 48 seniors include large numbers of 5th and 6th year guys is mind boggling.

I'm very confident UW-W is faster, healthier, and better than they were in 2019 (although that version wasn't bad), but I honestly have no idea how they stack up to other 2021 teams. I'm guessing other teams are much better, too.

For the record, I have a ton of respect for what Central has accomplished this year. They are clearly an awesome team. However, I just think Wheaton's strength along the lines of scrimmage will be too much for them. I could see something like 35-21 Wheaton. Sorry for posting this on the ARC board. As Usee points out, I'm wrong a pretty good share of the time! 

[Schipper Strong]

You beat me to it. I was going to post my thoughts on Central but haven't finished them yet. Perhaps you would have more people talking about Central if you had more posters? I guess it's better than total silence on the boards, No?

Back when Central was a regular playoff contender we had a lot of posters. I always knew Central would get back where we belonged and stuck with it. Most didn't. It is lonely on the board, so I welcome the visitors. It is high time my Dutch have people talking about them. I am looking at an all Central College Stagg Bowl with my rose tinted glasses.

[SpartanHouse]

MIAC, WIAC we're both top to bottom better than the CCIW this year (IWU had an epically bad year. Augie sucks, Elmhurst is laughable, Carthage was down, etc).

However, I'll take CCIW's top two verse any conference this year.

I think Wheaton at Central is the GOTW. Really looking forward to this one.

[USee]

These are the stats of two top D3 QB's:

QB A: 263 att; 359 comp; 3,755 yds, 73.2%; 57 TDs; 4 INTs; 341 yds pg; sacked 14x,  211 QB Rating

QB B: 309 att; 435 comp; 4,591 yds; 71%;  56 TDs; 5 INTs; 306 yds pg; sacked 28x, 199.9 QB Rating


These are some amazing stats. One of these is Gagliardi winner and National champ Broc Rutter (QBB) from North Central in 2019. The other is Central's Blaine Hawkins (QBA). By any measure, #3 from Central can spin it, efficiently.

Here is 2 groups of WR's:

Group A:

WR1: 71 rec, 1270 yds, 17 TD's 115 yds pg
WR2: 54 rec, 889 yds, 13 TDs, 80 yd pg
WR3: 58 rec, 754 yds 12 TDs 68 yds pg

Group B:

WR1: 59 rec, 1015 yds, 10 TD's, 113 yds pg
WR2: 30 rec, 792 yds, 9 TD's, 79 yds pg
WR3: 13 rec, 199 yds, 1TD, 20 yds pg

One of these groups is NCC's WR group led by Gagliardi finalist Andrew Kamienski (Group B), the other is Central's WR group led by Tanner Schminke (Group A). These guys can play!

There's more to this Central offense. LT #69 Que Baker-McCaulay is not only singlehandely the reason Central won't put last names on their jerseys, he is a legit AA tackle. 6-3, 285 with great feet, long arms and a powerful and physical blocker. He is the most impressive of a great OL for the Dutch and reminds me of Sharmore Clarke at NCC. #70, RT Travis Wagner, 6-5 275 also sticks out to me with great feet and length as a pass protector. #58 Josh Mayhew is a returning 5th year RG and is a very physical run blocker.

The X factor for Central's running game is Hawkins, who is a very capable runner, gaining 339 yds this year. He is the one I am most worried about as QB runs have hurt Wheaton in some games this year.

Defensively, #92, DT Blade Durbala, 6-1, 280 is a powerful DT with great upper body strength (5.5 sacks, 11 TFL). I have seen him literally throw OL out of the way in a couple games. #54 De/LB Hunter Maddy is their leading sack man with 9.5. He is agile and aggressive. They move him around a lot often starting him stacked behind the DT and looping him to either DE at the snap. He runs well and pursues relentlessly. Also impressive is #10 LB Josh Van Gysel. Their leading tackler with a nose for the ball and a clear understanding of pass defense. Very good player.

The secondary is led by a trio of safeties who are the 2nd, 3rd and 4th leading tacklers on this defense: Brayden Egli (64 tackles, Brody Klein (59 tackles) and Cameron Bannister (55 tackles) take turns coming downhill at the snap to punish ball carriers. They are athletic and aggressive.

Its not hard to see why Central has been imposing this year. They have a unique scheme on defense that is difficult to prepare for. On offense Hawkins understands defensive schemes and knows where to go with the ball, releasing it very quickly. They run some very effective bubble screens (their WR's are all very good blockers) and the run a sophisticated vertical passing scheme out of multiple sets, including some bunch formations that can confuse the defense.

Central is really good and I expect a close battle.

As to  the Wheaton/NCC game. Both teams have strong defenses and both teams were incorporating key new offensive players in that early contest. It's not hard to see why points were hard to come by. 

[Schipper Strong]

Regarding the NCC-Wheaton result - I think there is something to be said about two teams being ultra-familiar with one another.  Both teams knew exactly what to expect coming into that game (within reason).  I think you saw the same thing play out in the UWW-UWL game.

I don't see Central hanging 41 on Wheaton.  If they do, I'll donate 100 bucks to the charity of your choosing.

That familiarity must be it. I kept looking at it and wondering how two such strong offenses could be held to so few points.

My favorite charity is the Central College football team.    But you could send the money to D3football.com. They make all our sputtering about how good our team is possible after all. They may not be a charity, but you don't need the tax deduction anyway.

Wheaton has a great rush defense, the best we played so far was against Wartburg who averaged giving up 74 yds rushing per game. Yeah, yeah, I Know Wheaton gives up about half of that. We rushed for 159 yds against them. I think our O-line is better than most you have played this year, so I can see Central with roughly 100 yards rushing on Saturday. Guess the rest just has to be passing, where Wheaton isn't as strong.

[Schipper Strong]

Thanks for a great rundown USee. I can't give that kind of in depth breakdown having never played a down of football in my life. You're lucky my rundown wasn't "Central has a lot of great young men who are great students and gentlemen as well as athletes". Also true, but not particularly helpful information wise.

[Next Man Up]

Lots of information on how good Wheaton is this year being posted. Welcome to all the posters from various regions and conferences. Seems a lot of confidence in Wheaton's O&D lines, their defense, their offense, sacking ability, kickoffs, etc. I'm ready for a good game on Saturday. I have been looking at the stats and scores and just can't quite reconcile NCC only scoring 20 points or Wheaton only scoring 7 in their game. The game befuddles me. Then again so does Central's game with St Olaf a bit. I chalk it up to early season games. 

My prediction is Central 41, Wheaton 28. I have said all season that this is the best Central team I have seen and I have seen the best of them. Everyone knows about our QB who has been practicing his 3 second release all week. You all saw or read about how outstanding our punt and kick returns were last week. Our D-line may be behind Wheaton in sacks, but our starting D-line is pretty good against the run. Blade Durbala and Hunter Maddy are two guys you wish hadn't come back for a 5th year. Your QB will be hunted and feel stuck by Blade a few times. A large number of running stats were improved in the second half of many games when the starters were benched. Maybe Wheaton's second stringers are better than ours, but I doubt we'll play many of them Saturday. Our secondary is playing very well. Egli and Bannister are gifted athletes that both started out as QBs, but were too good to play behind Hawkins. Van Gysel at LB was a tremendous addition to the defense when he premiered last spring. The kid will be AA before he graduates. Our O-line is really strong and tends to give Hawkins a lot of time, but I'm sure he is practicing his quick throws anyway. It will be interesting to see how both lines match up this weekend. Jason Hopp is a good running back and with the Wheaton defense he may be tested. He is fighting injury so we may have to focus on passing. If only we had the QB and receivers up to the task. 

Regarding the NCC-Wheaton result - I think there is something to be said about two teams being ultra-familiar with one another.  Both teams knew exactly what to expect coming into that game (within reason).  I think you saw the same thing play out in the UWW-UWL game.

I don't see Central hanging 41 on Wheaton.  If they do, I'll donate 100 bucks to the charity of your choosing.

This one caught my eye. Not only Central but, as a conference opponent, it's hard to imagine any team hanging 41 on the Wheaties.
The questions that naturally arise should this happen are;
1. If Central does score 41, will that be enough to win or will Wheaton score more?
2. If they don't hit 41, how many fewer can they score and still win?

It's long been said that defense wins. It seems Central's best chance to win is through the air. Conversely, if Wheaton can get their run game going their chances appear good. I sense the game winner could well be the winner between Central's run defense and Wheaton's pass defense.