FB: American Rivers Conference

[USee]

I agree with Bleed. The Central/UWW game is about matchups and UWW probably matches up better with Central than Wheaton did. Central did a great job game planning to minimize Wheaton's advantages and I expect them to try to so against UWW. I thought Wheaton had significant advantages over Central in the defensive front as well as their offensive line coming into the game. Similar to Wheaton, UWW stops the run and pounds the rock on offense. Central came into the Wheaton game and said "We won't even try to run the ball, more attempts for Blaine Hawkins" resulting in 65 pass attempts. That minimized the influence of Wheaton's front 7. Dallas McCrae and company still did their thing, sacking Hawkings 4x and hitting him about 15 more times, but more times than not, Hawkins got the ball out before the Dline could do anything. The other thing Central did, which is hard to appreciate on film or even on TV, is play with tremendous pace. They have 4 WR's (often 5) and employ multiple formations the defense has to align to. After every play they are at the LOS before the referees are even ready to put the ball in play to run the next play. Many times the defense is still trying to identify the new formation and Hawkins is snapping the ball. Central ran 82 plays to Wheaton's 70. That's a lot of plays to defend. They ran 13 plays on the last drive, which was just over 2min left. That's really incredible to me: 13 plays in 2 minutes. Not many offenses in the country can do that, even in a 2 min drill. This strategy also neutralizes an aggressive front/defensive team and gives Hawkins a clear advantage if the defense is getting lined up and he has already snapped the ball. Again, UWW plays multiple people and is also pretty simple in their defense. They play a base 4-3 with 2 safeties and, while alignments change slightly, it's a lot easier to adjust to Central's pace when you are only moving a few yards vs switching sides of the defense every snap. Wheaton also had mostly a secondary that was in their first year as starters across the board and UWW has at least 3 DB's who are multi year starters.

On Offense, Wheaton employs a double team/block down and pull running game. Their best stuff had Hibben pulling around the outside to lead a sweep or trapping an interior lineman. Central employs a scheme where they "hide" LB Maddy Hunter and slant him at the snap in the C/G, G/T, or T/TE gap. LB Josh Van Gysel (#10) sits behind all that and has great instincts. Even though Wheaton still had Weeks with over 100 yds rushing, it is confusing for the blocking scheme and resulted in a handful of negative/no gain running plays for the Thunder. UWW runs mostly a zone blocking scheme and they are exceptional at it. That negates most of that defensive scheme that Central runs as they don't care who shows up in which gap, they stay on course and swallow up whoever shows. It also keeps Blaine Hawkins off the field. Oddly enough, Wheaton actually won the time of possession by 6 minutes but Central still ran 12 more plays.  Wheaton also had less experience at WR than years past. UWW has more talent on the offensive perimeter than the Thunder did in my opinion.

That's a lot of detail but it represents some of my thoughts on why this game may play out differently because the matchups are different on both sides. Again, I am very impressed with Central and I thought Wheaton played them pretty well. Anyone who thinks Central can't win this game is fooling themselves. But the Warhawks are also built for this and have the ability to matchup with Central in ways the Thunder didn't.

[02 Warhawk]

+19 seems a little much, even with their bloated 174th ranked SOS.

Hansen Ratings has then at +6, which seems a little more accurate to me.

I could be wrong, I'm always under estimating my Hawks. But we'll see.

If they added the last two games and re-figured strength of schedule and then re-ranked the bracket, the Warhawks would probably get a trip to Pella.

Strongly disagreed to that hypothetical. Hansen Ratings keeps track of SOS to-date, and it still isn't close.

Not that any of that really matters. I Just found it interesting

[Fannosaurus Rex]

They need to get used to the idea of being more hospitable. They are nervous. Can't blame them. Number one offense coming to town.

I once used to try to figure out how to interpret bravado from fans from another team. I've learned over the years it doesn't usually work out real well for them.  See ya' Saturday. Looking forward to hearing how you feel about our team after seeing them in person.

Oh trust me, I have a ton of respect for Whitewater. I k own they are an incredible team. I don't doubt that at all. As I said last week when most said Central couldn't make up the difference against Wheaton. Would not be much fun to believe we were going to lose. I know we are in for a battle Saturday. I did not go to WW the last two times we were there. This year I feel it is worth the trip.

I guess we can throw out the 1966 game since it was NAIA and before I ever even heard of Central College and the result was unsatisfactory.  I went to the other two games.  The 1988 game was oh so worth the trip.  The 2005 game wasn't worth what I spent on tolls on I-90.

[Schipper Strong]

+19 seems a little much, even with their bloated 174th ranked SOS.

Hansen Ratings has then at +6, which seems a little more accurate to me.

I could be wrong, I'm always under estimating my Hawks. But we'll see.

If Central is down 6 and has the ball with at least 2 minutes left in the game, I'll give you 6.5.

Lol. Fair enough.

Just don't score too fast. UWW can get down the field in a hurry as well. 

We aren't like the Johnnies, we don't leave even a second on the board.

[Schipper Strong]

+19 seems a little much, even with their bloated 174th ranked SOS.

Hansen Ratings has then at +6, which seems a little more accurate to me.

I could be wrong, I'm always under estimating my Hawks. But we'll see.

If they added the last two games and re-figured strength of schedule and then re-ranked the bracket, the Warhawks would probably get a trip to Pella.

Strongly disagreed to that hypothetical. Hansen Ratings keeps track of SOS to-date, and it still isn't close.

Not that any of that really matters. I Just found it interesting

Yeah, even I have to disagree with a fellow Central fan on that one.

[Schipper Strong]

They need to get used to the idea of being more hospitable. They are nervous. Can't blame them. Number one offense coming to town.

I once used to try to figure out how to interpret bravado from fans from another team. I've learned over the years it doesn't usually work out real well for them.  See ya' Saturday. Looking forward to hearing how you feel about our team after seeing them in person.

Oh trust me, I have a ton of respect for Whitewater. I k own they are an incredible team. I don't doubt that at all. As I said last week when most said Central couldn't make up the difference against Wheaton. Would not be much fun to believe we were going to lose. I know we are in for a battle Saturday. I did not go to WW the last two times we were there. This year I feel it is worth the trip.

I guess we can throw out the 1966 game since it was NAIA and before I ever even heard of Central College and the result was unsatisfactory.  I went to the other two games.  The 1988 game was oh so worth the trip.  The 2005 game wasn't worth what I spent on tolls on I-90.

I was there in 1988 also. Winning probably shocked us as much as it did them that year given our QB situation.

[Fannosaurus Rex]

+19 seems a little much, even with their bloated 174th ranked SOS.

Hansen Ratings has then at +6, which seems a little more accurate to me.

I could be wrong, I'm always under estimating my Hawks. But we'll see.

If they added the last two games and re-figured strength of schedule and then re-ranked the bracket, the Warhawks would probably get a trip to Pella.

Strongly disagreed to that hypothetical. Hansen Ratings keeps track of SOS to-date, and it still isn't close.

Not that any of that really matters. I Just found it interesting

How about this then.  Throw out each teams' first two games and replace them with the last two.  Then who travels?

[02 Warhawk]

+19 seems a little much, even with their bloated 174th ranked SOS.

Hansen Ratings has then at +6, which seems a little more accurate to me.

I could be wrong, I'm always under estimating my Hawks. But we'll see.

If they added the last two games and re-figured strength of schedule and then re-ranked the bracket, the Warhawks would probably get a trip to Pella.

Strongly disagreed to that hypothetical. Hansen Ratings keeps track of SOS to-date, and it still isn't close.

Not that any of that really matters. I Just found it interesting

How about this then.  Throw out each teams' first two games and replace them with the last two.  Then who travels?

[kiko]

+19 seems a little much, even with their bloated 174th ranked SOS.

Hansen Ratings has then at +6, which seems a little more accurate to me.

I could be wrong, I'm always under estimating my Hawks. But we'll see.

Some people have under-estimated Central so far in the play-offs.

I have no dog in this matchup, and am not surprised to see that these two teams have progressed to December.

Whitewater is not Wheaton/Bethel.  Especially when you are looking at a road game.

When you say, "not Wheaton," do you mean not the team whose only loss was by barely 2 scores against the defending national champs? They were a long way from home but it looks to me like North Central beat UWW twice as bad as they did Wheaton?

Yes, I mean that Whitewater is IMO a much better team than Wheaton.  Especially when you have to face them behind the Cheddar Curtain.  And I have a ton of respect for what the Thunder lined up with this year -- not to mention what the Dutch will roll off the bus with.  Both of the teams on the field in Pella last week were Top 5-8 in the country caliber.  Whitewater is a level above.

[kiko]

+19 seems a little much, even with their bloated 174th ranked SOS.

Hansen Ratings has then at +6, which seems a little more accurate to me.

I could be wrong, I'm always under estimating my Hawks. But we'll see.

If they added the last two games and re-figured strength of schedule and then re-ranked the bracket, the Warhawks would probably get a trip to Pella.

That's... not how it works.  It's academic now, but if anything, the Warhawks have a case that they rather than the Johnnies should have been atop the entire left-hand side of the bracket.

[02 Warhawk]

+19 seems a little much, even with their bloated 174th ranked SOS.

Hansen Ratings has then at +6, which seems a little more accurate to me.

I could be wrong, I'm always under estimating my Hawks. But we'll see.

If they added the last two games and re-figured strength of schedule and then re-ranked the bracket, the Warhawks would probably get a trip to Pella.

That's... not how it works.  It's academic now, but if anything, the Warhawks have a case that they rather than the Johnnies should have been atop the entire left-hand side of the bracket.

I like to think of it as the team with the higher SOS got the overall top seed, but the better team got the more favorable path.....Given that this Whitewater's first big test of the playoffs 

[bleedpurple]

+19 seems a little much, even with their bloated 174th ranked SOS.

Hansen Ratings has then at +6, which seems a little more accurate to me.

I could be wrong, I'm always under estimating my Hawks. But we'll see.

If they added the last two games and re-figured strength of schedule and then re-ranked the bracket, the Warhawks would probably get a trip to Pella.

Strongly disagreed to that hypothetical. Hansen Ratings keeps track of SOS to-date, and it still isn't close.

Not that any of that really matters. I Just found it interesting

How about this then.  Throw out each teams' first two games and replace them with the last two.  Then who travels?

Or we could just play paper, scissors, rock. Two out of three.

[Schipper Strong]

I have faith that the Central coaching staff is putting together a terrific game plan to adjust our strengths and weaknesses and account for new injuries. I have faith that the Central team is focused just like they have been all year. The players will continue to believe in each other and the ability of the rest of their teammates to step up if they have stumbled. I believe this Central team has incredible talent and heart. They will play hard until the time runs out. I believe we are taking on a DIII Goliath. I believe we are a pretty darn good David.

[Fannosaurus Rex]

+19 seems a little much, even with their bloated 174th ranked SOS.

Hansen Ratings has then at +6, which seems a little more accurate to me.

I could be wrong, I'm always under estimating my Hawks. But we'll see.

If they added the last two games and re-figured strength of schedule and then re-ranked the bracket, the Warhawks would probably get a trip to Pella.

Strongly disagreed to that hypothetical. Hansen Ratings keeps track of SOS to-date, and it still isn't close.

Not that any of that really matters. I Just found it interesting

How about this then.  Throw out each teams' first two games and replace them with the last two.  Then who travels?

Or we could just play paper, scissors, rock. Two out of three.

I was being Socratic.

[New Tradition]

+19 seems a little much, even with their bloated 174th ranked SOS.

Hansen Ratings has then at +6, which seems a little more accurate to me.

I could be wrong, I'm always under estimating my Hawks. But we'll see.

If they added the last two games and re-figured strength of schedule and then re-ranked the bracket, the Warhawks would probably get a trip to Pella.

Strongly disagreed to that hypothetical. Hansen Ratings keeps track of SOS to-date, and it still isn't close.

Not that any of that really matters. I Just found it interesting

How about this then.  Throw out each teams' first two games and replace them with the last two.  Then who travels?

Or we could just play paper, scissors, rock. Two out of three.

Paper, scissors, pound the rock?