FB: American Rivers Conference

Outside the Crate · August 08, 2022, 07:37:07 PM

Pat Coleman thinks if Wartburg went 7-3 last year they do not deserve ranking this year. Maybe so. But, in 2008, a 6-4 season was followed with a 10-1. In 2013, a 9-3 season was followed with a 12-1. In 2016, a 6-4 was followed with a 12-1, and in 2018 an 8-3 was followed by a 10-2 (a one-point loss to Central and a loss to UWW in the second round of the playoffs). On the other hand, I'd rather be underestimated -- even if we do have to play AT Central for the third darn season in a row! But, speaking of underestimated: Central is only ranked 14th behind Wheaton which is ranked 8th and lost to Central last year. Bethel is also ranked ahead of Central despite being killed by Central in the playoffs. Hmmm. What do the estimators know and who do they listen to? Or, more to the crux of the matter, what are their biases?

sigma one · August 08, 2022, 09:40:19 PM

For years, I've read, now and again, about bias in the D3 rankings. I just don't see it. Most of us agree that DIIIFB has a good handle on what goes on around the country. The pollsters come from all over as far as I know. Last year, 2021, pre-season poll teams ranked 1 through 4 ended 1-4 (although in a different order). You might say that those teams, year in year out, are the best in DIII. So why not rank them early at the very top. They go deep into the playoffs. That's fair. But of the final poll top 10, 8 were ranked in the Top 10 pre season. Only Central (14 pre to 6 final) and Muhlenberg (15 pre to 7 final) were not in the initial Top 10 at the beginning of the year. So, DIII picked 80% of the teams at the top of the rankings. The two teams that dropped out were Salisbury and UW Oshkosh.
Central has a fantastic team last year. They had a generational 5th year player at QB, who broke the DIII TD passing record with 63! Their top WR caught 93 passes for over 1500 yards and 19 TDs. He was also a 5th year. And the top RB gained 966 yards and averaged over 6 YPC in a pass happy offense. Very impressive.
I have no connection to Central, but I admire what they did in 2021. But if I were ranking them pre-season this year based on the loss of the QB alone (and for all I know his successor will be fantastic) I would not have ranked them in the Top 10. Time will tell, but I would not be too upset with the current ranking to start. Looking at the 2022 schedule, they have a good chance of going unbeaten this year. The OOC schedule is manageable with St Olaf and Eau Claire. If they win out, go back to the playoffs, and win a game or two, they will move up, probably to within the Top 10 again. No small feat except for the perennial big dogs.
By the way, last year of the teams ranked in the Top 25 pre season, 15 finished in the Top 25 in the final poll. Those that dropped out were Oshkosh, John Carroll, Union, Wartburg, Washington and Jefferson, Westminster PA, Chapman, Brockport, Heidelberg, and Berry. Most of those are teams with proud traditions. Shows how difficult it is to pick the teams ranked 11-25. Those that moved in were LaCrosse (11), Trinity TX (12), RPI (13), Johns Hopkins (14), Cortland (16), Birmingham Southern (18), River Falls (20), Ithaca (21), Redlands (24), and Lake Forest (25). None of the initial unranked schools made the Top 10. Most of them are not strangers to Top 25 in recent years.
So, we'll see as the season progresses.

Outside the Crate · August 08, 2022, 11:03:56 PM

I don't know you Sigma One, but I agree with you. I was just trying to yank Pat Coleman's chain and liven up our conversation a bit. It's been pretty boring around here... I wondered if Coleman would react, but you did it for him.
Meanwhile, back at home the new athletic director is taking away my reserved seats at Walston-Hoover Stadium, which must mean they have enough money. Change? Why do we have to change? Next the Knights Templar will complain about our mascot name so they'll change it to "Wartburg Wind" (as in "Simpson Storm"). Then, when we experience one of those rare defeats at the hands of Central the sports writers will use the headline "Central breaks Wind."
So, Sigma One, can I join your sorority?

Pat Coleman · August 10, 2022, 02:40:30 PM

I think the voters know full well that Central lost a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback and that it is reasonable to rank them below teams who they defeated last year.

Schipper Strong · August 10, 2022, 09:41:46 PM

I am good with Central being rated where they are. I am quite confident we lost more to graduation than Wheaton or Bethel. We do have a great competitor in last year's backup QB, but don't expect him to break Hawkins records until his senior year.

I think replacing Durbala and some of the other defensive players will be a challenge. I really don't think anyone else on defense bench presses 475 like Durbala did.

Next Man Up · August 11, 2022, 11:21:19 AM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on August 10, 2022, 02:40:30 PM
I think the voters know full well that Central lost a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback and that it is reasonable to rank them below teams who they defeated last year.

And not even just a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback. I believe Central had at least a couple other All-Americans lost to graduation. This would seem to make their current rank even more plausible.

Outside the Crate · August 11, 2022, 12:50:15 PM

As a loyal Wartburg fan, I hope y'all are on target. However, do I detect a diminished sense of humor among our troops?

Schipper Strong · August 11, 2022, 10:19:26 PM

Quote from: Next Man Up on August 11, 2022, 11:21:19 AM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on August 10, 2022, 02:40:30 PM
I think the voters know full well that Central lost a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback and that it is reasonable to rank them below teams who they defeated last year.

And not even just a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback. I believe Central had at least a couple other All-Americans lost to graduation. This would seem to make their current rank even more plausible.

Five All Americans total.

Schipper Strong · August 12, 2022, 10:37:32 PM

Just read Central's preseason write-up and it sounds promising. Glad to see some players coming back for their 5th year even though it would have been tempting to go out after a season like last year. Not surprisingly we got a recruiting payoff from last year's success with transfers and freshmen. Central will have the largest football team in school history. Still wishing we had the one that got away to Grandview but he can always transfer.

Surprised and sorry to see one player injured last year against Wartburg was not listed as a returner.

We will have a lot of depth from all the reserve player time last year. Looking forward to the season.

Thunderdome21 · August 13, 2022, 08:54:53 AM

Quote from: Schipper Strong on August 12, 2022, 10:37:32 PM
Just read Central's preseason write-up and it sounds promising. Glad to see some players coming back for their 5th year even though it would have been tempting to go out after a season like last year. Not surprisingly we got a recruiting payoff from last year's success with transfers and freshmen. Central will have the largest football team in school history. Still wishing we had the one that got away to Grandview but he can always transfer. Surprised and sorry to see one player injured last year against Wartburg was not listed as a returner. We will have a lot of depth from all the reserve player time last year. Looking forward to the season.

I checked out the write-up and saw that your underclassman standout D3 All-Region LB Josh Van Gysel wasn't mentioned. Did he transfer?

Schipper Strong · August 16, 2022, 05:13:17 AM

Quote from: Thunderdome21 on August 13, 2022, 08:54:53 AM
Quote from: Schipper Strong on August 12, 2022, 10:37:32 PM
Just read Central's preseason write-up and it sounds promising. Glad to see some players coming back for their 5th year even though it would have been tempting to go out after a season like last year. Not surprisingly we got a recruiting payoff from last year's success with transfers and freshmen. Central will have the largest football team in school history. Still wishing we had the one that got away to Grandview but he can always transfer. Surprised and sorry to see one player injured last year against Wartburg was not listed as a returner. We will have a lot of depth from all the reserve player time last year. Looking forward to the season.

I checked out the write-up and saw that your underclassman standout D3 All-Region LB Josh Van Gysel wasn't mentioned. Did he transfer?

Can't believe I missed that. I don't know the answer to that, but I would be shocked if he did.

Pat Coleman · August 16, 2022, 10:02:29 AM

He was listed as not returning on the preseason info we got from Central.

Schipper Strong · August 16, 2022, 09:45:50 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on August 16, 2022, 10:02:29 AM
He was listed as not returning on the preseason info we got from Central.

Another huge hole to fill. Good thing we have 69 new freshmen to compete for his position.

Thunderdome21 · August 17, 2022, 11:39:25 PM

Quote from: Schipper Strong on August 16, 2022, 09:45:50 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on August 16, 2022, 10:02:29 AM
He was listed as not returning on the preseason info we got from Central.
Another huge hole to fill. Good thing we have 69 new freshmen to compete for his position.

I think Central would be in trouble if they had to rely on one of the freshman to fill Van Gysel's shoes. They're too sound of a program. Van Gysel would've been a for-sure AA this year, but i'm sure one of the LB's mentioned in the preview press release will step up.

Schipper Strong · August 25, 2022, 06:16:05 AM

Someone did some excellent recruiting for Central again this year. A huge freshman class and a nice surprise from one class 6A school in TX. Four players from one school coming in as freshmen. Reminds me of the SE Polk contingent that transferred to Central years ago and made a huge impact. There are a lot of out of state players on the team. I think we are looking to take another step up.