FB: American Rivers Conference

[Outside the Crate]

I shouldn't raise this issue again (Pat Coleman doesn't like it), but I must because it's an issue so germane to the discussion about competitiveness in and between conferences -- and the issue is 5th-year players.  The Wisconsin (WIAC) conference teams are full of 5th-year players every year, partly just because the tuition is so heavily subsidized by the state.  While ARC colleges take great pride in graduating very high percentages in four years, that's not the case everywhere.  I know there are always a lot of 5th-year players in the Northwest Conference.  Covid changed all that for other conferences, including the ARC -- and, frankly, the reason Wartburg is so damn good this year is because of a bevy of 5th-year players.  Central will tell you the same thing was true for them last year.  Once the "Covid players" have graduated in the ARC we will return to "normal" -- and that's not very competitive with the WIAC.  So, the WIAC colleges have many thousands of students, are highly subsidized by the state, and as a practice allow/encourage students to take five year to exhaust their eligibility.  It's not a level playing field.  "Never was"...and soon won't be again.

[Schipper Strong]

I shouldn't raise this issue again (Pat Coleman doesn't like it), but I must because it's an issue so germane to the discussion about competitiveness in and between conferences -- and the issue is 5th-year players.  The Wisconsin (WIAC) conference teams are full of 5th-year players every year, partly just because the tuition is so heavily subsidized by the state.  While ARC colleges take great pride in graduating very high percentages in four years, that's not the case everywhere.  I know there are always a lot of 5th-year players in the Northwest Conference.  Covid changed all that for other conferences, including the ARC -- and, frankly, the reason Wartburg is so damn good this year is because of a bevy of 5th-year players.  Central will tell you the same thing was true for them last year.  Once the "Covid players" have graduated in the ARC we will return to "normal" -- and that's not very competitive with the WIAC.  So, the WIAC colleges have many thousands of students, are highly subsidized by the state, and as a practice allow/encourage students to take five year to exhaust their eligibility.  It's not a level playing field.  "Never was"...and soon won't be again.

Agree with that. When everyone was saying if those schools were in the ARC how would they do and my thought was not very well. They would have to pay high tuition, would have about 1/5 of the students at best, etc. look at the private colleges in WI, they aren't competing at that level, but have the same recruiting base area. Central was definitely great last year because of 5th year players. Wartburg is clearly benefiting from their 5th year players this year. Until Covid we only had a rare 5th year player like Mark Kacmarynski when he broke his leg against Wartburg his senior season.

[Schipper Strong]

My opinion is not changed on the issue of 2 teams at 4-3 being in the top 25 over some of the top contenders in ALL the other conferences in the nation.

Make a case for "some of the top contenders in ALL the other conferences in the nation" based on what their resume looked like in Week 8.

I should have said some of the top contenders in SOME of the conferences. I was trying to emphasize that I didn't mean ARC specifically. I also have to admit I don't follow the other conferences enough to make my case. So I will just give in and repeat that my opinion is not the popular one and may be wrong even though I still feel that way.

[kiko]

I shouldn't raise this issue again (Pat Coleman doesn't like it), but I must because it's an issue so germane to the discussion about competitiveness in and between conferences -- and the issue is 5th-year players.  The Wisconsin (WIAC) conference teams are full of 5th-year players every year, partly just because the tuition is so heavily subsidized by the state.  While ARC colleges take great pride in graduating very high percentages in four years, that's not the case everywhere.  I know there are always a lot of 5th-year players in the Northwest Conference.  Covid changed all that for other conferences, including the ARC -- and, frankly, the reason Wartburg is so damn good this year is because of a bevy of 5th-year players.  Central will tell you the same thing was true for them last year.  Once the "Covid players" have graduated in the ARC we will return to "normal" -- and that's not very competitive with the WIAC.  So, the WIAC colleges have many thousands of students, are highly subsidized by the state, and as a practice allow/encourage students to take five year to exhaust their eligibility.  It's not a level playing field.  "Never was"...and soon won't be again.

Agree with that. When everyone was saying if those schools were in the ARC how would they do and my thought was not very well. They would have to pay high tuition, would have about 1/5 of the students at best, etc. look at the private colleges in WI, they aren't competing at that level, but have the same recruiting base area. Central was definitely great last year because of 5th year players. Wartburg is clearly benefiting from their 5th year players this year. Until Covid we only had a rare 5th year player like Mark Kacmarynski when he broke his leg against Wartburg his senior season.

Actually, their student athletes would be paying the same tuition as they do today, and the teams would be bringing the same rosters to gameday as they do today.

Yes, the WIAC teams have a build-in structural advantage in terms of the value proposition they can provide to their students.  But (1) their historical success has not been primarily driven by fifth-year athletes, and (2) non-state schools have other advantages that they can also market to prospective student athletes.

But you're moving the goalposts.  The question is if the 2022 UW-Oshkosh team (or Platteville, or...) -- the ones who you don't feel are among the top 25 teams in the country based on record and not based on their tuition levels -- were to play an ARC schedule, how would they fare?  And if you are suggesting they would fare poorly, then you are mostly engaging in wishful thinking.  And to reiterate: I think the ARC is a solid conference.

There's an argument to make against a slew of UW teams being in the top 25, but this ain't it.

[Pat Coleman]

Who are the fifth-year players that the WIAC routinely had before COVID, exactly? Without the COVID eligibility year, you can't play five years in Division III, or even practice for five years.

At least, not since 2004. Anyone who redshirted before then is probably in their 40s now and is unlikely to be of help to a WIAC team.

[MediaGuy]

Who are the fifth-year players that the WIAC routinely had before COVID, exactly? Without the COVID eligibility year, you can't play five years in Division III, or even practice for five years.

At least, not since 2004. Anyone who redshirted before then is probably in their 40s now and is unlikely to be of help to a WIAC team.

THe 5th year players I think Shipper is referring to is the long standing practice of "grey shirting" which I know from talking to the coaching staffs from multiple WIAC teams was a common strategy in the late 90's and through the 2000's but I can't confirm if it happens now.  They recruit an 18 year old kid from high school, then his first year on campus he doesn't make the official roster, does not work out with the team, or go to official practice sessions with the team.  He does however get workout programs from the strength coach, the playbooks and access to practice and game film, and other "unofficial" coaching from the football coaches.  Then the next year when he is 19 and in his second year on campus, he "tries out" for the football team and makes the official roster as a "freshman" with 4 years of eligibility left.  He then plays 4 years and plays his "senior" year at 23 and graduates after 9 semesters in school instead of 8. 

Basically a 5th year player in all regards.  Where at most other schools, a player's first year is spent on the football team at practice, on the scout team, and playing maybe 5 JV games.  Most first year players are not good enough mentally or developed enough physically to play varsity their first year, and this year is for all intents and purposes a waste of eligibility for 99% of players.  I can attest to how much different a player looks and acts after spending 1 full off season in the strength and conditioning program as well as learning how to watch tape, work on technique and think like a college football player.

So in my and many others opinion, that is why the "grey shirting" practice kind of feels like playing pool on a tilted table.

[hazzben]

I don't know how common grey shirting is now, Pat would probably have a better read, but I don't get the sense it's all that common. I know there was a period when I played where some conferences accepted red shirts for transfers (WIAC) and others did not (MIAC). We had several guys come to Bethel from NDSU, SDSU, etc. and they essentially lost an entire year of eligibility since the MIAC didn't allow them to get that red shirt year back. As far as I know, all of D3 accepts red shirt transfers now.

[Pat Coleman]

You do accurately describe greyshirting.
They don't play that first year.
Not five-year players.

[SpartanHouse4]

You do accurately describe greyshirting.
They don't play that first year.
Not five-year players.

To add a little more here...these freshman go through pre-season camp and then come back to the team once the season is over. They go through spring practice with the team as well.

Oshkosh used to grey shirt kids their second year in the program rather than the first. I found this very strange but found out they did it for two reasons. 1-if you greyshirt freshman a large portion leave the program after year one. 2-wanted to be different than WW.

[Schipper Strong]

Kiko I think UWO would be second or third most years in the ARC and UWP would be third through 5th most years. Basing that on UWO team scores against Stout and LaCrosse who Wartburg beat this year and how close both Central and Coe played Wartburg. Also based on Central's OT win against them in 2019 and Central's similar win against Wartburg that year. UWO is good, but I don't see them beating both of us. Plattville I think would not fair as well based on up and down performance.

[DuffMan]

The ARC just seems to have more ups and downs that some of the top conferences.  Some years, your champs is really good (this year and last year, definitely).  Other years, not so much (off the top of my head, Dubuque got pasted by the Johnnies 1st round in '15).  Also, in the past 15-20 years, you almost always saw UWW from the WIAC (likely another like UW-O, now UW-LAX) and SJU and/or Bethel from the MIAC.  The ARC has been a bit more wide open--Warty and Central are generally top dogs, but we've seen a number of other teams win the conference.

[bleedpurple]

You do accurately describe greyshirting.
They don't play that first year.
Not five-year players.

To add a little more here...these freshman go through pre-season camp and then come back to the team once the season is over. They go through spring practice with the team as well.

Oshkosh used to grey shirt kids their second year in the program rather than the first. I found this very strange but found out they did it for two reasons. 1-if you greyshirt freshman a large portion leave the program after year one. 2-wanted to be different than WW.

First of all, this whole "greyshirt" concept needs context.  "Grey Shirt" is just a term that is made up. It is not a formal deal.  A kid either makes the team or he doesn't. If he is cut, there is an honest conversation with him as to his viability in the program in the future.  If the coaches think there is potential, they will give him a recommended workout and things to emphasize to improve. But it is totally up to the student at that point if he wants to follow through. He is literally not in the program at that point because he can't work out with the team at all until January.
Secondly, you are misrepresenting what UW-W does.  UW-W does not ever cut a recruited freshman when they have offered him a roster spot. They are the only student-athletes guaranteed a roster spot. The rest of the spots are gained through competition. 

I may be wrong, but I believe that Oshkosh HAS in fact grey shirted kids as freshmen. THAT would make them different than UW-W.

[Knights2013]

Hey everyone, great to see the post activity on the board. It's been a long time since I've posted but have continued to follow the board and the Knights closely over the years, and hoping to make the game in Waverly this weekend.

I'm shifting the conversation a bit as I don't have much input in regards to the WIAC discussion, but curious to get the opinion of those who maybe have seen Aurora play this year, and watched last weekend's game between Wartburg and SJU.

Wartburg no doubt has a special defense this season, and they seem to be able to come up with stops and turnovers all over the field. My concern watching last weeks game was when McLaughlin (QB) went down for Wartburg, they struggled on offense mightily. Now, generally speaking a bit of a drop off can be expected, but it seemed that Wartburg had no contingency plan available for what the backup was capable of running successfully out of the playbook. From what I understand, the injury to Nile is one that will not make him available this week, or the following games should the Knights advance, so Markham will be the guy.

Does anyone have any input or thoughts on what Wartburg may try to do offensively this week vs Aurora with Markham? Although significantly smaller than Nile, he showed good speed. It was tough to really see how well he threw the ball through the livestream (he did complete one deeper ball that comes to mind, albeit on the livestream that seemed like he chucked it and prayed, followed by a very nice catch by the WR along the sideline).

Back to my main point: Wartburg looked incredibly limited when Nile went down last week. From the scores I've seen, Aurora looks like they can put a lot of points up, and in a hurry. A shootout does not seem to be something that Wartburg would be successful in winning this week given the QB situation. The Knights seemed to deploy the Iowa football strategy of take some time off the clock, punt, and hope the defense could continue to hold (thankfully, they did!) It doesn't seem like that is a strategy that is going to win games this deep into the playoffs.

I understand that the backups do not regularly get the reps that the starters will get throughout the week, but certainly have concern about Wartburg's ability to control the clock and score points this week with the backup starting. I would expect heavy doses of Claasen and the running back crew, and a lot of short, quick passes and RPO game to help Markham move the ball this week.

[bleedpurple]

Hey everyone, great to see the post activity on the board. It's been a long time since I've posted but have continued to follow the board and the Knights closely over the years, and hoping to make the game in Waverly this weekend.

I'm shifting the conversation a bit as I don't have much input in regards to the WIAC discussion, but curious to get the opinion of those who maybe have seen Aurora play this year, and watched last weekend's game between Wartburg and SJU.

Wartburg no doubt has a special defense this season, and they seem to be able to come up with stops and turnovers all over the field. My concern watching last weeks game was when McLaughlin (QB) went down for Wartburg, they struggled on offense mightily. Now, generally speaking a bit of a drop off can be expected, but it seemed that Wartburg had no contingency plan available for what the backup was capable of running successfully out of the playbook. From what I understand, the injury to Nile is one that will not make him available this week, or the following games should the Knights advance, so Markham will be the guy.

Does anyone have any input or thoughts on what Wartburg may try to do offensively this week vs Aurora with Markham? Although significantly smaller than Nile, he showed good speed. It was tough to really see how well he threw the ball through the livestream (he did complete one deeper ball that comes to mind, albeit on the livestream that seemed like he chucked it and prayed, followed by a very nice catch by the WR along the sideline).

Back to my main point: Wartburg looked incredibly limited when Nile went down last week. From the scores I've seen, Aurora looks like they can put a lot of points up, and in a hurry. A shootout does not seem to be something that Wartburg would be successful in winning this week given the QB situation. The Knights seemed to deploy the Iowa football strategy of take some time off the clock, punt, and hope the defense could continue to hold (thankfully, they did!) It doesn't seem like that is a strategy that is going to win games this deep into the playoffs.

I understand that the backups do not regularly get the reps that the starters will get throughout the week, but certainly have concern about Wartburg's ability to control the clock and score points this week with the backup starting. I would expect heavy doses of Claasen and the running back crew, and a lot of short, quick passes and RPO game to help Markham move the ball this week.

Having watched both play, I  think it's an intriguing match up.  Aurora is surprisingly strong along the line of scrimmage, but I don't think they are in Wartburg's category. They stood up to UW-W surprisingly well on the line of scrimmage and did better than most on the ground and lit us up pretty good in the passing game. They have a pretty sophisticated passing attack with good athletes at WR. The QB is good. 

Their ability to beat our defense in two phases cost us the game. They hit us for 10 plays of 15 or more yards.  That's a high number against the UW-W defense.  Secondly, they beat us on third down.  We had them in 18 third down situations and they were 11-18 in converting. Some long, some short, didn't seem to matter. On one TD drive before the half, they converted 3rd and 10, 3rd and 9, 3rd and 6, and 3rd and 15.  Kinda maddening.

In my mind, the problem with taking the air out of the ball (Iowa) is that Aurora can strike quick and doesn't need a ton of time to score. I think the key is being efficient and turning their opportunities into points.  Aurora is not nearly as strong on defense as they are on offense. As long as the Wartburg offense can function normally against an above average D-III defense, I think they will be fine.

Only seeing the Wartburg defense against St. John's, my hunch is they have the athletes to give Aurora trouble. I am thinking they will hold Aurora to 21 or less. To me, the burden is on the Knights to score more than that with the reconstructed offense under Markham. I expect they will.  My guess is 31-17 Wartburg.

[DuffMan]

From what I understand, the injury to Nile is one that will not make him available this week, or the following games should the Knights advance, so Markham will be the guy.

That's really a bummer.  I feel terrible for the guy. 

In the post-game press conference, WB's coach made the point that you draw up an offensive game plan around the guys that are starting the game, so when a backup QB with a somewhat different skillset enters the game, it can be a mismatch between your game plan and the strengths/weaknesses of your backup QB.  I suspect with the week to prepare, WB's staff will have a plan together that will cater to what Markham does best.  At the very least, your RB is a stud.