FB: American Rivers Conference

[Schipper Strong]

Central is using two sophomores at QB this year. They are both from Illinois and we're able to have family at the game today. One lives 2 hours north and the other 3 hours south of today's game location. On the Central radio broadcast today they were talking about it. The two players were the quarterbacks for the opposing sides of the Illinois shrine bowl after their senior year.

[Alfredeneumann]

Good article on Wartburg - Bethel game by MSP Star Trib's Patrick Reusse

https://www.startribune.com/bethel-wartburg-division-iii-football-hunter-clasen-david-geebli-patrick-reusse/600303360/

Good win Knights!

[doolittledog]

Dubuque loses 35-19 to UW-Platteville.  This was about what I expected.  Last week was the disappointment.  This year is playing out just like last year.  Last year UD went 6-2 in conference play.  I always like 6-2 or better.  Anxious to see how the next 9 weeks play out in the conference.

[DriftlessDuhawk]

Duhawks went up 14-0 before an absolute comedy of errors lead to a 14 point loss. Hope returned a punt for a TD and the duhawks "roughed the snapper" (sure seemed like the defender was blocked into the center but I also had my purple shaded glasses on) on a missed field goal that then lead to a TD. Besides these errors the coaching staff's decision to continuously punt on 4th and 1 and play the field position game really hurt their chances. The offense is going to a lot of fun to watch this season as England is a dynamic QB but the defense is quite the opposite. Tough to win games giving up 6 yards a carry and if that side of the ball does not figure some things out the only way the duhawks will win any games this year is going to be through shootouts.

[DBQ1965]

I agree with Driftless's analysis of the game.   And I think the game turned on the 90 yard punt return giving Hope a big boost just before halftime and a 21 all tie.  Loras scored one TD in the 3rd qrtr and that it for the Duhawks while Hope added another 21 points. For most of the 1st half i was thinking Loras could give UD a big challenge in the Key City rivalry,   but after the 2nd half I'm not so sure.  As the old wisdom says, that's why they play the game. Go Blue!

[hazzben]

Game against Wart went as I was worried it might. Knights were very good at all levels and played a very composed, complete game. QB is gonna be our struggle all year, which is tough since I think everything else on this team is good enough for a playoff run. Also a blow to lose Geebli for the season. Congrats Wartburg, best of luck the rest of the way.

[MediaGuy]

Not sure if there are any Kohawks on the board, but I have to compliment the new white helmets.  Slick look with the all white uniforms, and much better then the gold with the oval Coe logo.  No matter how the season ends, they win "best new look" award in my book.

[Fannosaurus Rex]

I was already excited for Central to kick-off conference play. Seeing "the best new look." will just be frosting on the cake. 

[DriftlessDuhawk]

First week of conference play is here! All eyes in the conference will be on the result out of Pella as Coe and Central look like the two early contenders who may be able to give Wartburg a run for their money. I am also interested to see how NWU plays against Simpson as they are also quietly 2-0 entering conference play. I would imagine that Wartburg hangs an ugly number on BV and that Loras has a bounce-back week against Luther (assuming the defense can generate any sort of momentum). Would love to hear what others are looking forward to with the first week of conference play coming up this weekend. 

[Schipper Strong]

I am looking forward to the Central-Coe match up on Saturday. First home game for the Dutch. Coe can have the best new look, Central will take the win. Coe has put up some impressive numbers on offense in their first two games. Defense looks solid too. Dutch will need to be at the top of their game Saturday. Fully agree the winner of this one has the only real shot at knocking WB out of the conference title. I don't see WB losing twice in conference play. Could be the loser of the game plays spoiler though. This looks to be a battle. I am impressed with Central's new defensive coordinator. Except for the last 2 minutes against the Oles the defense has looked good. Kick off team needs to sharpen to prevent the 99 yard return. One is more than enough for the season.

I agree with Driftless on the analysis of the other games. Miss doing pick-ems.

[Fannosaurus Rex]

I can't figure out how to handicap tomorrow's Central v Coe game.  Central didn't look bad in the first two non-conference games on the road. On the other hand, they didn't look great.  And as for Coe, all I know are some impressive scores, except that it hard to be too impressed without knowing anything about the quality of the competition those scores were hung up against. So now I am wondering, what is the home field advantage worth.  It sure seems to me that for as long as Post Patterns has been around and for as many subjects as we have covered on here, and for as many great minds as there are in this community, we should have come up with an answer to that simple question. It could be the difference between whether or not I get any sleep tonight.

[Pat Coleman]

Key to know that UW-Eau Claire lost its veteran starting quarterback early in the game against Coe.

[HansenRatings]

I can't figure out how to handicap tomorrow's Central v Coe game.  Central didn't look bad in the first two non-conference games on the road. On the other hand, they didn't look great.  And as for Coe, all I know are some impressive scores, except that it hard to be too impressed without knowing anything about the quality of the competition those scores were hung up against. So now I am wondering, what is the home field advantage worth.  It sure seems to me that for as long as Post Patterns has been around and for as many subjects as we have covered on here, and for as many great minds as there are in this community, we should have come up with an answer to that simple question. It could be the difference between whether or not I get any sleep tonight.

I have the ("an") answer to that question! In my model, each team has a team-specific HFA, that measures how well the team plays at home vs. the road. There are ways to improve any HFA metric (the big ones would be to make another metric that is venue-specific, which measures how much better/worse road teams play at that venue, and the other would be to include total travel distance), but this is good enough, and simple.

I have Central as a 2.5 point favorite, but I think it's fair to say that it could/should be higher than that. Coe is getting too big of a boost for decisively beating a depleted UW-EC team who was without their starting QB (concussion in Week 1) & top WR. Some spectator's analysis from that game was that the UW-EC offense looked completely different from their Week 1 win vs. Concordia-Moorhead (who faired well against a quality PLU squad the next week). Both team's opponent-adjusted margin of victory so far this year (i.e. "how well are you playing") are in the Top 20-35 range. Central's done it against marginally better competition.

As for the HFA? Both teams have very low AdjHFA values (they play just as well on the road as they do at home), so the HFA for this matchup is only about a point & a quarter, half the national average.

[Fannosaurus Rex]

Well thank you very much.  Now I know...kinda.

[doolittledog]

As far as I can tell, Central wins the contest as the first conference school to have their own beer.

https://x.com/CentralCollege/status/1702744484256113133?s=20