FB: American Rivers Conference

[doolittledog]

Final 2 weeks of the season.

11/04/2023

Coe @ Dubuque  1pm
Wartburg @ NWU  1pm
Simpson @ Loras  1pm
BVU @ Central  1pm
-----------------------
Lyon @ Luther  1pm

In the Stan Zweifel era at UD, Dubuque is 9-5 against Coe and has gone 8-2 over the last 10 games against the Kohawks.  Dubuque has gone 6-1 at Coe, with that only loss back in Stan's first year back in 2009.  BUT, Dubuque is 3-4 against Coe when the games are played in Dubuque.  This years game is in Dubuque.  I'm hoping to see Dubuque even their home record against Coe while moving their over record to 10-5 during the Zweifel era.       

[Schipper Strong]

MediaGuy-I agree with you on much of what you said. I think it is long past time Coe got rated. They have a very good team this year. Much as I hate to say it, the conference standings are spot on and reflective of how the top teams played each other. Wartburg beat Coe and Central. Coe beat Central and only lost by 6 to Wartburg. Central lost by 10 to the knights. The scores reflect the standing and how good all of the games between these three teams were. I don't think any of these games got the attention they deserved. Sorry Pat and crew, these deserved as much attention as Bethel/SJU or any of the match-ups in the WIAC or with the Texas teams. Have to say I am really disappointed that Logan didn't make a case for some of these games. You let the ARC down.

I am not going to say multiple ARC teams would win multiple games, but I think any of the top 3 would be capable of winning one game or more. Then again, this is the loaded West Region. I do believe Coe belongs in the playoffs every bit as much as SJU or more. Their only loss was to the third place team by 6 pts!

I am not going to eliminate the NAIA teams and say how good would we be if... But I will say if some Iowa colleges had not added football in relatively recent years the ARC would have stronger teams. I am thinking Grandview, Dordt, Briar Cliff.

[Schipper Strong]

Central JV gets the win over Wartburg JV. A little solace for this Dutch fan's heart.

[DriftlessDuhawk]

Do we think Coe has a chance at a Pool C bid? While I think in a just world they would get one (assuming they were to finish 9-1) I'm not sure their noncon is doing them any favors. Beating the likes of Cornell and UWEC will most likely not move the needle enough for it to happen with there only being 4 to hand out this year. Would be a great time to revisit our ARC/MIAC bowl game idea...

[bleedpurple]

Do we think Coe has a chance at a Pool C bid? While I think in a just world they would get one (assuming they were to finish 9-1) I'm not sure their noncon is doing them any favors. Beating the likes of Cornell and UWEC will most likely not move the needle enough for it to happen with there only being 4 to hand out this year. Would be a great time to revisit our ARC/MIAC bowl game idea...

So, just genuinely curious;

Given the number of great teams across the land with quality wins and given the fact that "Beating the likes of Cornell and UWEC will most likely not move the needle", why would Coe get a Pool C bid in a just world?

[Schipper Strong]

Only one loss on the season by 6 pts to the number 3 team. How many top ranked teams didn't stay rated early in the season after losing to a top rated team? Why shouldn't Coe get the same recognition?

[Pat Coleman]

Berry is in a similar situation (narrow loss to a top team, no wins against ranked opponents) and it's not going to get them into the playoffs.

[MediaGuy]

I really hope Coe gets some respect as they are a good team and could win a game or 2 in the playoffs, but it's all going to come down to the regional rankings and sadly I think the national selection committee still takes historical performance into account.  Along with the fact that there are only 4 Pool C bids makes it a tough row to hoe.  Coe currently sits at 91st on the SOS list, behind Endicott (15th SOS, 0-1 RVRR) and Muhlenberg (50th SOS, 0-1 RVRR) and a 3 way tie in the WIAC might take up 2 Pool C spots.  So even if Coe was 4th ranked in the region behind NCC, Wartburg, and Aurora, they might make it to the table but not get selected.  The best case scenario would see LAX beat UWRF this weekend to knock out UWRF, and Mount Union beats JCU which might move JCU below Coe, but thats not a guarantee as both of their losses were to RRO.  Then the next week Gustavus lose to Bethel in the MIAC Title game which would eliminate Gustavus and hurt SJU's Pool C chances.  Also in week 11, you'll want Ithaca (1st SOS) to beat Cortland (18th SOS) as Cortland is a strong Pool C contender.  Also as a general rule you'll want to cheer for all the Conference leaders to win out and all the other 1 loss teams to lose.

Best case scenario I see the Coe, UW-W and/or UW-RF, Muhlenberg, SJU or Bethel, Endicott, Berry, Springfield and Union as contenders for 4 Pool C spots.

Wartburg has been in Coe's position many times before and in the past, it didn't work out for us more often then not.  There have been too many upsets of the "preseason powers" and only having 1 RRO might really hurt the Kohawks chances.  Which is too bad, as I said, I think that Coe is good enough to win a game or 2 on the national stage.

[Pat Coleman]

... sadly I think the national selection committee still takes historical performance into account.

Only when comparing unbeaten teams where a tie can't be broken otherwise. If historical performance were taken into account, the committee would have taken Johns Hopkins last year instead of Utica.

[USee]

I really hope Coe gets some respect as they are a good team and could win a game or 2 in the playoffs, but it's all going to come down to the regional rankings and sadly I think the national selection committee still takes historical performance into account.  Along with the fact that there are only 4 Pool C bids makes it a tough row to hoe.  Coe currently sits at 91st on the SOS list, behind Endicott (15th SOS, 0-1 RVRR) and Muhlenberg (50th SOS, 0-1 RVRR) and a 3 way tie in the WIAC might take up 2 Pool C spots.  So even if Coe was 4th ranked in the region behind NCC, Wartburg, and Aurora, they might make it to the table but not get selected.  The best case scenario would see LAX beat UWRF this weekend to knock out UWRF, and Mount Union beats JCU which might move JCU below Coe, but thats not a guarantee as both of their losses were to RRO.  Then the next week Gustavus lose to Bethel in the MIAC Title game which would eliminate Gustavus and hurt SJU's Pool C chances.  Also in week 11, you'll want Ithaca (1st SOS) to beat Cortland (18th SOS) as Cortland is a strong Pool C contender.  Also as a general rule you'll want to cheer for all the Conference leaders to win out and all the other 1 loss teams to lose.

Best case scenario I see the Coe, UW-W and/or UW-RF, Muhlenberg, SJU or Bethel, Endicott, Berry, Springfield and Union as contenders for 4 Pool C spots.

Wartburg has been in Coe's position many times before and in the past, it didn't work out for us more often then not.  There have been too many upsets of the "preseason powers" and only having 1 RRO might really hurt the Kohawks chances.  Which is too bad, as I said, I think that Coe is good enough to win a game or 2 on the national stage.

Probably an oversight but I think Wheaton will be a contender for pool C, should they beat WashU this weekend and North Park next weekend.

[MediaGuy]

I really hope Coe gets some respect as they are a good team and could win a game or 2 in the playoffs, but it's all going to come down to the regional rankings and sadly I think the national selection committee still takes historical performance into account.  Along with the fact that there are only 4 Pool C bids makes it a tough row to hoe.  Coe currently sits at 91st on the SOS list, behind Endicott (15th SOS, 0-1 RVRR) and Muhlenberg (50th SOS, 0-1 RVRR) and a 3 way tie in the WIAC might take up 2 Pool C spots.  So even if Coe was 4th ranked in the region behind NCC, Wartburg, and Aurora, they might make it to the table but not get selected.  The best case scenario would see LAX beat UWRF this weekend to knock out UWRF, and Mount Union beats JCU which might move JCU below Coe, but thats not a guarantee as both of their losses were to RRO.  Then the next week Gustavus lose to Bethel in the MIAC Title game which would eliminate Gustavus and hurt SJU's Pool C chances.  Also in week 11, you'll want Ithaca (1st SOS) to beat Cortland (18th SOS) as Cortland is a strong Pool C contender.  Also as a general rule you'll want to cheer for all the Conference leaders to win out and all the other 1 loss teams to lose.

Best case scenario I see the Coe, UW-W and/or UW-RF, Muhlenberg, SJU or Bethel, Endicott, Berry, Springfield and Union as contenders for 4 Pool C spots.

Wartburg has been in Coe's position many times before and in the past, it didn't work out for us more often then not.  There have been too many upsets of the "preseason powers" and only having 1 RRO might really hurt the Kohawks chances.  Which is too bad, as I said, I think that Coe is good enough to win a game or 2 on the national stage.

Probably an oversight but I think Wheaton will be a contender for pool C, should they beat WashU this weekend and North Park next weekend.

Apologies...for some reason I had it in my head that Augustana beat them earlier this year.  It was a close game and I must have looked at the score wrong.  But it will probably come down to regional rankings...whoever is higher between Wheaton and Coe will likely get on the table for discussion at least

[doolittledog]

This will all be moot if Coe can't get past Dubuque this weekend.  And Coe has only won 2 of their last 10 against Dubuque. 

A former Central Dutch QB gained some fame last night at the World Series.

https://x.com/MurphyKeith/status/1719387665554891150?s=20

And the ARC has hired their new commissioner.  Starts Dec. 1st

https://x.com/AmerRiversConf/status/1719398830582423639?s=20

[DriftlessDuhawk]

Do we think Coe has a chance at a Pool C bid? While I think in a just world they would get one (assuming they were to finish 9-1) I'm not sure their noncon is doing them any favors. Beating the likes of Cornell and UWEC will most likely not move the needle enough for it to happen with there only being 4 to hand out this year. Would be a great time to revisit our ARC/MIAC bowl game idea...

So, just genuinely curious;

Given the number of great teams across the land with quality wins and given the fact that "Beating the likes of Cornell and UWEC will most likely not move the needle", why would Coe get a Pool C bid in a just world?

My comment was pointed at the fact Coe may be 9-1 with the singular loss coming to the #3 team in the country. Good teams can play bad schedules. It may not qualify them for the national tournament as an at large bid but they are still most likely one of the 32 best teams in the country. I agree with you though, their schedule is most likely not good enough for one of the 4 at larges unless some crazy stuff happens in the last two weeks.

[Pat Coleman]

The tournament isn't designed to get the best 32 teams in the country in, so I wouldn't use that as your standard.

It's designed to get the champion from every qualifying conference, and the best at-large teams to fill the remainder of the field.

[DriftlessDuhawk]

The tournament isn't designed to get the best 32 teams in the country in, so I wouldn't use that as your standard.

It's designed to get the champion from every qualifying conference, and the best at-large teams to fill the remainder of the field.

I understand the idea of the tournament and think that it is equitable and fair. But in terms of determining who the best team in the country is the best way to do it would be to let the best 32 teams in the country go at it.

I say this as someone who likes the current system and thinks the best possible change would be to go to 40 teams to allow for more at large bids a chance at competing for the title.