FB: American Rivers Conference

[Floyd in Iowa City]

Congrats to Wartburg and Coe for winning tough games this past week.  Defense was really the name of the game in both games as the defenses forced turnovers and controlled the opposing offenses.

I was a little surprised at how much the Coe Offense was held down, but a win is a win when you can beat Central.  If memory serves me Coe had a hard time with the Dutch last year as well.

The Wartburg Offense looked like they had a good day to me at first glance at the stats on Sunday, but then when I started to look at the play-by-play I noticed that the Wartburg Defense really was the strength the entire game until the Wartburg Offense got it going in the 4th quarter.  The two Wartburg TDs before the 4th quarter were on a short field, and the defense looks like it held up great as far as stamina even though the Knight Offense had a hard time moving the ball in the first half.

I think many of us focus too much on the firepower that schools have on offense and forget about turnover margin and overall defense. 

Luther has been a pretty good defensive club over the last few years and has forced a lot of turnovers, but can they win this week the way that Coe and Wartburg were able to last week by playing defense and forcing turnovers even if the Norse Offense isn't clicking?

I can't imagine either the Knights or the Norse having huge passing games this week without throwing some interceptions, so to me it is going to come down to which team is able to run the ball closest to the way that they are accustomed to.

The Luther Offense was so good the last half of 2004 after Sherdan moved to RB, but there is a curiosity aspect to the game this week because he hasn't played RB and done his thing against the Wartburg Defense.  The lack of a running game for Luther was the difference in the game last season.

[Floyd in Iowa City]

As an FYI since three IIAC teams played one of these two teams, St. Olaf beat Bethel 27-25.  The Oles had 455 yards of balanced total offense and were in control 27-13 before giving up a long TD kickoff return and throwing an INT that was also returned for a TD.

B.V. lost to Bethel, Central beat Bethel, and Luther lost to St. Olaf.

Comparing scores can be a misleading thing, so do with this as you will.

[dbljay21]

Floyd,
You are right that the Norse were missing a running game against Wartburg last season.  I think Sherdan will be able to run the ball against the Knights simply because no one has been able to slow him down yet.  The game will most definitely come down to the defenses and special teams.  Whoever forces turnovers or gets a big play on special teams will win.  From what I have heard about both squads so far this year is that it should be another tough contest between to bitter rivals. 

[NorseFan]

Bitter rivals?  Are you saying that Wartburg and Luther are bitter rivals?

Anyway, wish I could make it back to this game.  It should be a humdinger.  Hopefully the Norse D can put a full game together.  Seemed to me that last year a few big plays are what hurt the Norse.  That and a good Wart team.  To bad I can't get the webcast at the wedding I'm going too.

[Floyd in Iowa City]

Also thought I would put out a CCIW FYI as North Central College beat Augsburg 64-25 and out gained them 657-338.  Wartburg beat Augsburg.

Millikin of the CCIW beat Franklin 31-24.  Millikin beat Wartburg in the opener.

Illinois Wesleyan of the CCIW lost to #22 Wisconsin-Eau Claire, 46-0.  Simpson beat Wesleyan in the opener.

I don't usually pay attention to CCIW schools besides perhaps Augustana.  Now that the conference games have started these things don't mean much, but I thought someone might be interested.

Thanks.

[LC65]

The Luther-Wartburg game this weekend is going to be a BATTLE!  Luther almost pulled off the upset victory at Wartburg last year, with a minute and a half to go, Luther was threatening to score, but a fumble ended the drive deep into Wartburg territory.  And Sheridan was not playing running back at that time. Wartburg's D is going to have their hands full with the Norse offense.  However, Luther graduated several good players on D, mainly Romans at Nose, Jeager at Mike, and Albers at Safety, not to mention a handful of others.  They do return some veterans who are very good, but it will be interesting to see how the Norse will address the issue of losing their main run-stoppers in the middle.  Wartburg could possibly have a big day running between the Tackles.  This game will be a high scoring affair, it would not surprise me if the teams combine for over 70 points.  Turnovers will be the key to winning this ball game for both teams.  The team that forces and capitalizes off turnovers will win the game.  I feel the deciding factor in this one will be that this game is held at Luther, giving them the slight edge.  Early prediction, Luther 38, Wartburg 31.

[KoHawk01]

Did anyone catch Loras and BV this weekend?? Heard the Loras offense is really struggling.  Sounds like they return a very solid Defense though.  Can anyone elaborate on this?  Thanks

[War Pig]

I was 3-1 betting the point spreads on Saturday.  I lost the Coe game by a point.  Here are my picks this Saturday:

Wartburg -10
Central -6
BV -17
Simpson -19

No game will have over 36 combined points.  The Wartburg/Luther game will be over by the end of the third quarter.  The Norse don't have much on defense. 

[Floyd in Iowa City]

War Pig,

You may be correct about the Luther Defense at this point in the season, but time of possession and the turnovers will play a huge part in how the Luther Defense plays this week.  Any team that lets the Wartburg Defense dictate and force three-and-outs and turnovers is not likely to win because sooner or later the Knight OL will wear down the opposing defense.

Moving the ball on offense, scoring points, and forcing Knight turnovers is the best way to keep the Luther Defense fresh and not wearing out like Simpson might have this past week.  Luther needs to prove that it can play physical defense without Jaeger and Romens, but there are a lot of starters back from last year's defense.

St. Olaf moved the ball at will on Luther, but they did pretty well against Bethel this past weekend as well. 

I like Central's chances of bouncing back by forcing Loras to turn the ball over.  It is a nice traditional matchup.  It could be a low scoring game, but you never know in conference play!

[davedevine]

somone mentioned I said "Simpson's defese was the steel curtain"?
I have no idea what simpson's defense or any other IIAC school has to offer.
All I have to go on is what I read on here.  I've been done 5 years so I don't know any of the players personally and the asst coaches I used to  talk to are no longer there, so I don't have much insider's knowledge...
I live in KC, so  I can generalize about the teams and that's about it. I'm also good at making general assumptions...

With that being said, when was the last time Luther beat Wartburg?
I can't remember a game in the past 8 years....and I'm too lazy to look it up... Lance or Walston? 

The one thing I do know is that winning is a habit and Wartburg owns Luther (along with most of the conference) and I don't care how fast this RB for Luther is, they won't let him run all over...  Willis will have their tendecies down, their defensive schemes will be good, and if the safeties listen & absorb the gameplan, they should know what's going to happen most of the time before the ball is snapped.

wartbug 17, smurfs 14... luther's rb <100 yds rushing....

p.s. captain obvious mentioned the game will come down to defense and special teams, every close game is the end result of these two...
+2 turnover margin wins 80% of games
100 yds of field position is worth 7 points. i.e. penalties and return yards

[press_box]

I believe that Wartburg has beaten Luther 13 consecutive times. The last Luther win in the series was in 1991, 20-17.

[sportsknight]

PressBox is correct, the current streak is 13 games and the last Norse win came in 1991.  To put that in a bit of prespective, the seniors playing in this game would have been learning how to add two digit numbers and write in cursive that fall, since they would have been in second grade.  That's opposed to most of the Coe players, a few of whom still struggle with both skills.

[vinnysboy]

I'm still posting and suppoting my Spartans, good luck in storm lake this weekend, I' makin the trip from FLA. Do  the little things right and everything will fall into place.

[dbljay21]

davedevine,
No defense has held Sherden under 100 yards rushing in a game that he has started at RB.  Why do you think the Knights will be the first?

[NorseFan]

What was the streak at last year when the Norse beat the Dutch?  It was quite impressive wasn't it?

Streaks are meant to be ended and you never know when that will happen.