FB: American Rivers Conference

[Charlie Kohawk]

I don't put much stock in pre-season polls, but it's saying something when seven out of eight IIAC coaches pick Coe as the favorite.

[DutchFan2004]

I think that Coe being picked as the favorite may be correct for a preseason poll.  Coe has three titles to show for their efforts in recent years.  They have much of their offense returning.  It will come down to how the teams perform on the field.  Who improves and who slides from last year.  Each team in the top of the IIAC have holes to fill. 

[Floyd in Iowa City]

I can't argue too much with the general predictions by the coaches at this point:

http://www.iowaconference.com/news/2006-07/Previews/football.pdf

I don't like the format of the preview as much this year as it is harder to figure out how schools are counting returning starters.  Are they counting special teams return guys, etc.?  Some schools also seemed to offer up more information than others.

[sportsknight]

I'd agree that the IIAC Preview was a little light on info this year, but a lot of coaches keep their cards pretty close to their chests.  Compiling a preview like that, where you are depending on a lot of info from the schools, is very much an unenviable task.

That said, here are my predictions for the coming season...

I think its a three-team race for the title between Central, Coe and Wartburg.  Whichever team can avoid the missteps against the weaker teams in the conference and can come up big in the big games will take it.  I think defense will play a big part in deciding the champion.  We all know these three teams can put up points, but keeping the opposition off the scoreboard could be an issue for each of them against quality opponents.  If I had to rank them, I'd say Central may have the best defense of the three, but if Wartburg's front line can perform then the Knights have the top unit.

Luther will land fourth.  Another year of not-quite-good-enough in Decorah.  Sherden being out hurts, but Lamos will be good enough to beat some of the league's weaker defenses.  Luther should have a decent "D" themselves, and could trip one of the top 3 if they're not careful.

I'll put Simpson and Loras in a tie for the 5 spot.  I think it'll be interesting to see how the Storm adjusts to a new offense.  The majority of guys that will play for them were recruited on and for the spread, so the adjustment could take well into the season.  I think Loras is a very good, young team, but their inexperience will cost them a few times.  They certainly have some of the offensive weapons that could put them at the top of the league in a couple years, but not this fall.

I'll put Dubuque at #7.  I think this is finally the year that the Spartans make something happen.  I could see them winning as many as five games, but I'm going to keep them at #7 for now.  If they finally find the right mix of athleticism and experience, this could be a dangerous team.

BV is 8th.  We all know BV has the largest recruiting base of any school in the conference, and hopefully Coach Anderson and take his lumps this year and convince a few of western Iowa's best to become Beavers.  Otherwise, it could be a lean couple years on the way for BV.  Come to think of it, why not just recruit the entire team from Harlan?  Give some of those boys a couple years in a college system and they could be better than BV is now.

Last is Cornell.  The Rams have spots with a lot of talent, but they have other spots with not much at all.  Numbers haven't been kind to them over the last few years either.  A decade later, maybe Cornell would have been better off staying in the Midwest Conference.  Extra points deducted for switching to those God-awful helmets.

[The Show]

Luther will finish below .500 this year without Sherdan.

Come to think of it, why not just recruit the entire team from Harlan?  Give some of those boys a couple years in a college system and they could be better than BV is now.

We've had some pretty good players from Harlan in the past and currently, but when you think of how dominant they are in high school ball, it's amazing that they rarely have a D1 player???

[Pat Coleman]

I can't argue too much with the general predictions by the coaches at this point:

http://www.iowaconference.com/news/2006-07/Previews/football.pdf

I don't like the format of the preview as much this year as it is harder to figure out how schools are counting returning starters.  Are they counting special teams return guys, etc.?  Some schools also seemed to offer up more information than others.

Kickoff will be a little more consistent.

[warthog]

I read the IIAC pre-season write-up and I begin to worry about the fortunes of my Wartburg Knights.  The fewest starters returning for any team in the league.  Last year the Knights apparently were playing mostly seniors against teams loaded with underclassmen.  The best they could manage was a stumbling bumbling third place?  OUCH!  Perhaps Pakk is right, we're heading back to mediocrity...................................................................Then again, I prefer to think both the IIAC preseason writeup and Pakk are full of BS.

Pakk, the Knights would have to head way back to be mediocre by the standards of most IIAC teams.  Even Central has felt the sting of being mediocre more recently than Wartburg and the Dutch have rarely known that feeling.  The Kohawks have had a good run the last few years, but they've had a mediocre or two thrown in along the way.  Only the Knights have been consistantly strong over the last decade.  I guess the 70's were fairly mediocre at Wartburg, but back then we had basketball to keep us happy.

The IIAC prediction for 2006:

Wartburg - 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Central - 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Luther - 2nd, 3rd or 4th
Coe - 3rd, 4th or 5th
Dubuque - 4th, 5th or 6th
Simpson - 5th, 6th or 7th
BV - 6th or 7th
Loras - 8th
Cornell - 9th

Remember, I pick from the heart.  The schedule is not kind to the Knights this year.  They play more teams that are predicted to be strong on the road than at home.  Oh well, I quess we'll just have to see how this all plays out.  Regardless, the brats will be hot and the adult beverages will be cold.  That and crisp autumn afternoons watching D3 football, what could be better?

[Charlie Kohawk]

With all due respect Warthog

The Kohawks have had a good run the last few years, but they've had a mediocre or two thrown in along the way.  Only the Knights have been consistantly strong over the last decade.

Erik Raeburn's Coe career reads like this:
2000 6-4
2001 6-4 (3rd IIAC)
2002 10-2 (tri-champs, NCAA round 2)
2003 5-5 (the only mediocre year)
2004 7-3 (co-champs)
2005 9-2 (co-champs, NCAA round 1)
2006? We shall see, but I'd put money against your 3rd-5th projection.

[warthog]

Charlie:

Most Wartburg fans would call 6-4 mediocre. 

Between 1999 and 2005 the Knights worst record was 7-3.  A 7-3 record in 2004 was Coe's 3rd best during the same period of time.  I'm not saying Coe hasn't been a good team.  I am simply saying they've had some mediocre teams over the last few years.

[Charlie Kohawk]

Point well taken Warthog. But I'll still bet against your 3rd-5th projection.

[warthog]

Charlie:

That is why they call us fans. 
If we were betting money would I pick Coe 3rd-4th-5th?     
No way! 

[coocooforcoekohawk]

Coe should be the preseason favorite.  If you look at the top three teams Coe plays the other two at home.  It is a tight race this year and having both those teams playing at K. RAY gives Coe the slightest of advantages.
As far as Wartburg goes, I think that there are more questions this year than any in the last ten.  If Wartburg stumbles this year I'm sure they will be back next year.  However, there is no guarantee that they will stumble.
It should be an electric atmosphere at K. RAY field if Central and Coe meet unblemished in November, but that is a very big IF.

[Floyd in Iowa City]

Luther will finish below .500 this year without Sherdan.

It is easy to see how someone who has been watching B.V. play Luther over the last several years might think that the sky will fall without the star RB.  I have heard that the Beaver game was clearly the ugliest of the year for the Norse, so I guess that it was good that I didn't have to watch it.

The last few years have seen Luther finish 6-4 without him at RB in 2003, 6-4 with him at RB for the last 6 games in 2004, and 6-4 with him playing the first 5 games in 2005.  The only constant seems to be the 6-4 record.  So until the Norse prove otherwise (either good or bad) it seems as if 5-5 to 7-3 predictions are the most reasonable.

[Floyd in Iowa City]

Show,

Any idea about how B.V. generally does in football recruiting battles with Briar Cliff, Morningside, or Northwestern in Orange City?  In my personal opinion NAIA football is not as deep or consistent as the good Division III leagues, but Northwestern has very good tradition and I assume Morningside is still taking advantage of the fact that they used to be Division II and in the North Central Conference.

[Pakk]

Warthog, great point about 6-4 being mediocre.  I guess that is just the difference in expectations between Central, Wartburg, and the rest of the conference.  When Luther finishes 6-4 they are on their way up and people expect great things from them.  If Central or wartburg finish 6-4 you would think the sky is falling.  I knew a couple of players from Coe the past few years that have conference champion rings.  To me that is ridiculas.  When I played at Central that was the expectation, not the goal.  We were not rewarded for doing what we were supposed to do..