FB: American Rivers Conference

[warthog]

My head hurts.  

What in heaven's name is AO trying to argue?   

[Walston Hoover]

I didn't mean to start a pissing match here. Glad to see all the new Cornell groupies though. Reminds me of when Brautigham took over at Dubuqe and we had all the new posters on here, and when Hefty took over at Luther and all of the sudden Luther was going to win the league. Not saying Dillon isn't going to make Cornell competitive, but pretty much every school goes through this when they have been bad and hire a new coach.
Wartburg has never scheduled world beaters for nonconference, I never claimed they did. They do however generally schedule a team from a respectable conference.  I did a quick check on Wartburg non conference opponents and found their records from the year before the Knights scheduled them (No idea how a team is going to do the year you schedule them)
Teams the Knights have played in the non conference are 27-24 in the year prior to Wartburg scheduling them. Again, not world beaters, but I'd venture to say several fans of a few schools on here wouldn't mind having that as THEIR record over the last 4 years.

[coocooforcoekohawk]

As far as Coe's non-conference schedule lets look at the argument about the records of these teams two years before they played and their records of the two seasons that Coe played these teams:

Westminster:
two years prior combined record-14-4
two years that they played Coe -11-8

St.Thomas:
two years prior combined record-8-12
two years that they played Coe -11-7

Illinois Weselyan:
two years prior combined record-6-14

Aurora:
two years prior combined record-11-10

That is an overall record of 61-55

The conferences played:
MIAC
CCIW
IBC
UMAC

Combined playoff record for these conferences: 27-25

Please note that the UMAC does not have a playoff record however as I noted above Westminster's record for the last four years is 25-12

[Walston Hoover]

Except you're forgetting the 1 team that makes your non conference look pretty bad, Eureka, who had a 3-17 record the 2 years before you scheduled them. That makes the record 64-72.
Don't shoot the messenger.

[Walston Hoover]

The 1 year record before you played them is 28-33
the 1 year record of Cornell's opponents is 30-30

[Walston Hoover]

Just for kicks I checked Luther since I didn't know anything about Martin Luther-
The record of the teams Luther has played nonconference since 2001 is 11-19 the year before Luther schedules them. That number may be a little misleading though. They have played either Martin Luther or St Olaf or both since '03. I'd qualify that as a patsy and  a contender.

[coocooforcoekohawk]

Except you're forgetting the 1 team that makes your non conference look pretty bad, Eureka, who had a 3-17 record the 2 years before you scheduled them. That makes the record 64-72.
Don't shoot the messenger.

I must be confused I thought we were looking at the last four non conference teams we played. Over the last three years.  If you want to make up new criteria to fit your argument then you win.  When we played Eureka we only got to play one non-conference game those years.  So, I think that your argument is irrelevant.  There is no telling who we could have scheduled if we had two games to schedule. 

[coocooforcoekohawk]

Just for kicks I checked Luther since I didn't know anything about Martin Luther-
The record of the teams Luther has played nonconference since 2001 is 11-19 the year before Luther schedules them. That number may be a little misleading though. They have played either Martin Luther or St Olaf or both since '03. I'd qualify that as a patsy and  a contender.

I don't get your math.  Four years of non-confernece opponents.  They played two non-conference teams in 2005 and 2004 and one non-conference team the first two years.  That is a total of six seasons of records to look at and yet these teams combined to play only 30 games in six years, talk about misleading.

[coocooforcoekohawk]

not trying to cause a fight Walston, just trying to understand the numbers you are using.

27-24 is 51 games, but again you are looking at six seasons. So each team is averaging less than nine games a year.

[Walston Hoover]

Sorry for the confusion.
I'm looking at records of teams IIAC schools have scheduled in the year prior to the scheduling. Confusing enough?
Wartburg played OshKosh in 2001, so I looked at their record in 2000 which was 3-7
Played Peru State in '03 so I looked at their '02 record of 2-8.
Augsburg in '04 and their '03 record was 5-5
Millikin in '04 and their '03 record was 7-3
Monmouth in '06 and their '05 record was 10-1
Looking at 5 NEW teams played so the 51 games fits the bill.

Again with Luther-Looking at the record of the teams the year before they scheduled them FIRST.
UM Morris was 0-11 in 2000
St Olaf was 5-5 in 2002
Martin Luther was 4-6 in 2003
Those are the only teams they have played nonconference so there are not too many records to look at.

"I must be confused I thought we were looking at the last four non conference teams we played. Over the last three years.  If you want to make up new criteria to fit your argument then you win.  When we played Eureka we only got to play one non-conference game those years.  So, I think that your argument is irrelevant.  There is no telling who we could have scheduled if we had two games to schedule. "
I just applied the same criteria to Coe as I did when looking up Wartburg's nonconference opponents. You brought up looking at the last 2 years before they were scheduled so I applied that as well.
There IS no telling who you would have scheduled had you been able to play 2 nonconference games, But the fact of the matter is you only had one nonconference game to play and you scheduled Eureka.

[Floyd in Iowa City]

Just for kicks I checked Luther since I didn't know anything about Martin Luther-
The record of the teams Luther has played nonconference since 2001 is 11-19 the year before Luther schedules them. That number may be a little misleading though. They have played either Martin Luther or St Olaf or both since '03. I'd qualify that as a patsy and  a contender.

Walston,

Luther has been scheduling Martin Luther and Morris as weaker opponents and assuming St. Olaf is going to be at least a top-four MIAC program every year.  When you play in a deep league like the IIAC, it makes sense to me that you schedule an easy non-conference game to play everyone and get some momentum before playing someone tougher who can help get you ready for the conference games.

Personally, I thought Augustana (played Central) and St. Olaf (played Luther) were the toughest preseason teams that any Iowa Conference school played last year.  So far, I would put St. Olaf as the toughest school anyone has played so far this year.

It sounds as if Luther and St. Olaf are going to continue to play every year even though the St. Olaf coach will not trade films with Luther.  Give the Norse credit for not ducking a rival school that has beaten them three years in a row.  As a result, Luther in the future may end up playing another "patsy" for the other non-conference game. 

It would certainly be easy enough for many coaches in the same situation as Coach Hefty to have dropped the Oles as Missouri dropped Iowa and Auburn dropped USC in recent years.  7-3 and 5-3 in the Iowa Conference might have looked better in 2004 and 2005 than what the 6-4 and 5-3 marks did for the Norse.

From a distance it seems as if Central does a nice job of playing a good non-conference schedule most years.

[Walston Hoover]

That's why I put that the numbers for Luther are a little misleading. I think St. Olaf is a great tune-up for the conference games.
What's the reason for the Oles coach not trading film?

[coocooforcoekohawk]

Sorry for the confusion.
I'm looking at records of teams IIAC schools have scheduled in the year prior to the scheduling. Confusing enough?
Wartburg played OshKosh in 2001, so I looked at their record in 2000 which was 3-7
Played Peru State in '03 so I looked at their '02 record of 2-8.
Augsburg in '04 and their '03 record was 5-5
Millikin in '04 and their '03 record was 7-3
Monmouth in '06 and their '05 record was 10-1
Looking at 5 NEW teams played so the 51 games fits the bill.

Using the same criteria as you, here are the real numbers of non conference opponents records the year before they played Wartbug and then Coe starting with 2001 oponents.  Remember you used two seasons of Eureka's record when tabulating Coe's numbers, but left out one year of Oshkosh and two of the three years of Augsburg when tabulating The Wart's.  You also left out Coe's 2001 opponent St. Ambrose which went 9-3 in 2000

WARTBURG  38-52
COE            44-45

If you would like I can post each season of each team if you don't believe me.  I'm not in a pissing contest. In fact I could care less, but if we are going to debate we should use consistency in our numbers.  Neither team has much to brag about when it comes to  non- conference scheduling.  I will say this in Wartburg's defense, 3-17 Augsburg combined record for 2004 and 2005 compared to Westminster's 14-4 record 2003 and 2004 is misleading.  I'm sure Augsburg's team would have beat Westminster if they would have met in 2004.

[Floyd in Iowa City]

Walston,

Both Hefty and the St. Olaf coach are in their 6th year at their respective schools, and I guess they used to trade film in the first couple of years that they played.  The rumor I have heard is that the St. Olaf coach interviewed for the Luther job and didn't get it when they hired Coach Hefty, so there may be some bad feelings from the Ole coach that he didn't get the job.

What makes more sense to me is that the Luther Defense forced five Ole turnovers in 2003 and four more in 2004, so the Ole coach stopped trading film last year.  Luther forced no turnovers in 2005 and only one last weekend, so maybe his bad sportsmanship is working.  It also might be that the Luther Defense has not yet made it back to where they were in 2003 and 2004.

We will find out pretty soon about the Norse Defense.

[Walston Hoover]

We can both tailor the numbers to fit our arguments, I still know you don't understand how I got my numbers.
Again, I looked at the record of the opponent the year before they played the IIAC school for the FIRST time. I know once a team is scheduled they are usually on for a home-and-home. In the Wartburg/Augsburg case the presidents wanted to have a football game since there is such a rivalry in wrestling so after the first 2 years, they have decided to do play again.

That is the criteria that I first looked at when I posted Wartburg's opponents records-Again What was their record the year before we FIRST played them. I used that for Coe as well. I did figure in St. Ambrose's record-Re-read my post about how I got my Wartburg numbers, and I will now post how I got Coe's numbers-
St Ambrose in '01- '00 record of 9-3
Eureka in 2002-2001 record of 1-9
Westminster in '04-'03 record of 7-2
St THomas in '04-'03 record of 3-7
IWU in '06-'05 record of 3-7
Aurora in '06-'05 record of 5-5

That is 6 NEW nonconference opponents and their record the prior year to playing Coe.
The records add up to 28-33.
No point to make here, just so you can see where I got my numbers for Coe, the same way I got them for Wartburg.

one more thing-I used 2 seasons of Eureka's record to fit your numbers, not mine.