FB: American Rivers Conference

[Ash Park]

While I'm here I might as well throw in my official predictions for this season.

1.  Wartburg (9-1, 8-0) - That defense is going to be lights out again this year.  Weber and Bruhn are pretty big losses, but to bring back nine starters from a unit that was as stout as last year's is very good news.  There are some holes to fill on offense, but Yordi will be able to rely on his line and TEs until the new guys are up to speed.  Special teams will be good with Kingery and Herzberg both back, but finding out who will handle the return duties should be a priority in camp.  I'm conservatively putting the Knights at 9-1 because I think that St. Norbert will be a very tough test out of the gate, but I think this team could easily run the table.

2.  Central (9-1, 7-1) - The early season loss should be the only blemish on Central's record.  The Dutch definitely lose a lot, and I think it will actually be a disadvantage to face Wartburg in game two as opposed to game three.  There will still be too much of a learning curve, especially for the new faces on offense.  Central should make the playoffs as an at-large.

3.  Dubuque (7-3, 6-2) - Yes, Jackson is gone.  But I for one am pretty high on the Hansen kid from Olin that will likely be taking over at quarterback.  If he gets rolling early in the season and their offensive system is tweaked enough to fit his abilities, he could have an All-Conference season.  The Spartans will solidify themselves as perrenial players in the conference race this year, but won't get over the hump enough to knock off Wartburg or Central.

4.  Simpson (7-3, 5-3) - Like many others around here, I'm buying the Storm this season.  I think that they have the right mix of players for a coaching change to catapult them to the league's second tier.  Their non-conference season isn't very impressive, but what it will do is give them a chance to make sure they're doing just about everything right before wading into the conference schedule.  Getting BV and Luther right out of the gate in IIAC play helps to that end as well.  The Storm will go from 6-0 contenders to 7-3 pretenders following their loss to Wartburg on the last Saturday of October.

5/6.  Loras (5-5, 4-4)
5/6.  Coe (5-5, 4-4)
Basically whoever wins the regular season meeting between these two takes the middle spot in the standings.  Their records above assume a win in that game.  Like I said earlier, I think Loras will be better than what a lot of people around here are giving them credit for.  They had a few playmakers get banged up last year and played right with Wartburg and Central.  They'll have to be much better in the special teams though.
As for Coe, sorry Kohawk faithful, but your days as one of the elite programs in the conference left with Raeburn.  I think Coe just lost too much from last year's team that just plain wasn't good enough to do battle with Wartburg and Central.  Breitbach will again be a human highlight film for the Kohawks (and quite possibly the most talented player in the league), but he can't do it all.

7.  BV (3-7, 2-6) - The Beavers are always a real question mark for me, and this year is no different.  This program seems to have a history of over-promising and under-delivering, and I think this season will be another example in that trend.  The natives may start getting restless when the Beavs get off to an 0-5 start, but they'll salvage some respectability by winning three of their last five.  But by then Beaver fans will have turned their focus to counting down the days until the start of basketball season.

8.  Cornell (3-7, 1-7) - Yes, this is the year Cornell gets a conference win (Nov. 8 against Luther).  But no, this is not the season that Cornell moves anywhere but out of the cellar.  While I do think this program is moving in the right direction, they aren't getting there in leaps and bounds like ShowMe would have you believe.  But they will be better this year, and could put a very real scare into some of the league's top teams.

9.  Luther (1-9, 0-8) - Circle that Waldorf game on your calendar, Norse fans.  You might want to be there if you want to see the Blue and White win this season.  It was pretty evident by how many carries he got in the past couple years just how dependent the Luther offense was on Tyler Sherden, but this season will be when we find out just how important he was to Luther.  I think anemic will be the best way to describe the Luther offense this season.  Their defense might keep them in some games, but otherwise it will be a pretty lean year for Luther.

Post-season Awards:
Coach of the Year - Jim Glogowski, Simpson.  Willis probably deserve it more for taking over a team a month before camp and leading them to the title, but Simpson's improvement will be enough for the league's coaches to snub Willis again.
MVP - Nick Yordi, Wartburg.  Breitbach from Coe a distant second.
Defensive Player of the Year (if they had such an award) - Jason Lansing, Wartburg, or Jordan Wilkens, Coe.  You could probably give this to the entire Wartburg defense, but Lansing is the leader of that unit.
Newcomer of the Year (another award I just made up) - Nate Snead, Central, or Chip Phillips, Wartburg.  If Snead wins the QB spot at Central, then its his honor for the taking.  If not, Phillips (from Pella HS) could challenge for the Wartburg starting tailback spot and could make a bit impact on an already potent offense.  Don't be surprised to see him make a few plays on returns as well.

Nice predictions and I like how you added the awards at the end...I will have to do that when I get some time.

[Klopenhiemer]

Looks like Devine will be the next to hit the Karma Club.  Attaboy.

I'm not sure what technically qualifies as a spread offense, but I'd say that Dubuque and Cornell probably run the closest thing to it right now.  Simpson and Luther have worked with some spread principles mixed into their schemes in the past, but we'll see how that changes with the new coaching staffs taking over.  Wartburg and Central both run quite a bit of 3 or 4 receiver looks with usually a single back and the occassional empty backfield, but I'm not sure their ways actually constitute being in the spread.  More like a formational oddity in otherwise traditional offenses.

Its been my observations in the past the closest thing to the spead offense in the conference is Simpson.  They ran a lot of 1 back sets with 4 and 5 wide outs.  They also ran alot of x-trips open (4 wides) and empty sets when Dusty Kain was on his roll.  That guy made a living getting underneath on the dig/drag/post route.  UD ran a lot of wide open stuff with a lot of bootleg as well.  Wartburg was more a Flex and Far formation team from my recolection.  They ran a lot of 2 back sets with no TE.  That made for some interesting defensive schemes.  As it was already stated Cornell runs the Wing-T with that dastardly orbit motion.  If that is ran right it can a SOB to defened.  Fortunatlly for the IIAC they have not done the best with it.  But with any IIAC you see variation of formations for empty sets to to your standards pro/twins sets. 

[Klopenhiemer]

Which team will sustain the most injuries and significantly change their season?  What players where injured last year that will impact the team this year?

First off, I've asked, read & heard some really dumb questions in my time, but this is definitely up there!
What are you talking about? How the hell would anyone know which team would sustain the most injuries and why would you even want people to consider that?  Unfortunately injuries happen, especially in football.  I'm a huge believer (from past experience) that flexibility greatly decreases chances of injury.  A little luck also doesn't hurt. 

Secondly, it's been about 5 hours now I believe since Walston's last post.  I'll venture to guess that he's at the hospital with #2 on the way.  So that makes me the first to congratlate you.

Lastly, There was a really good article about the spread offense in last week's SI. 
Which teams run a variation of the spread in the IIAC now?  I'm guessing UD did based on their athletic qb last year and I'm guessing WB mixes it in a little bit since they run quite a bit of 1 back?  help me here walston. 

Devin...you are hot tonight. 

Picking which team is going to suffer the most injuries is like roeschamboeing for the last piece of pizza with your sister.....................

[the_mayne_event]

Which team will sustain the most injuries and significantly change their season?  What players where injured last year that will impact the team this year?

First off, I've asked, read & heard some really dumb questions in my time, but this is definitely up there!
What are you talking about? How the hell would anyone know which team would sustain the most injuries and why would you even want people to consider that?  Unfortunately injuries happen, especially in football.  I'm a huge believer (from past experience) that flexibility greatly decreases chances of injury.  A little luck also doesn't hurt. 

Secondly, it's been about 5 hours now I believe since Walston's last post.  I'll venture to guess that he's at the hospital with #2 on the way.  So that makes me the first to congratlate you.

Lastly, There was a really good article about the spread offense in last week's SI. 
Which teams run a variation of the spread in the IIAC now?  I'm guessing UD did based on their athletic qb last year and I'm guessing WB mixes it in a little bit since they run quite a bit of 1 back?  help me here walston. 

Coe runs primarly all spread offense with one back or no backs.  it may change some with Raeburn gone.  Coe uses a TE about 5-10% of the time not on the goal line.  it is always spread

[warthog]

I'm going to take a shot at this prediction discussion.  I will base my guesses on the point spreads IIAC teams have had over the last two years in conference games.  I realize I'm not considering graduation losses or hot shot new comers.

#1 Wartburg  **  Offensive pts. 397  Defensive pts. 159  Difference  +238 pts.
#2 Central  **** Offensive pts. 466  Defensive pts. 243  Difference  +223 pts.
#3 Coe ******* Offensive pts. 366  Defensive pts. 276  Difference  +90 pts.
#4 Dubuque ***  Offensive pts. 455  Defensive pts. 409  Difference  +46 pts.
T #5 Simpson **  Offensive pts. 304  Defensive pts. 352  Difference   -48 pts.
T #5 B. Vista *** Offensive pts. 285  Defensive pts. 333  Difference   -48 pts.
#7 Luther *****  Offensive pts. 387  Defensive pts. 438  Difference   -51 pts.
#8 Loras ****** Offensive pts. 313  Defensive pts. 399  Difference   -86 pts.
#9 Cornell ***** Offensive pts. 170  Defensive pts. 534  Difference   -364 pts.

I would say #1 and #2 are a crap shoot as are #5 through #7.  Since my Knights ended up as the #1 team using this analysis, I'll stick with this as my pre-season prediction. 

[warthog]

ShowMe:
Regardless of my predictions, I appreciate your enthusiastic support of the Cornell Rams.  As far as I'm concerned you can dream out loud as much as you wish.

[DBQ1965]

DBQ1965  you can add me to the dutch list.

Mr. Devine you are en fuego.

Got it.

[Walston Hoover]

No baby yet Devine. Official practice in the state of Iowa started yesterday so I was at school from 3-9 last night and went to bed when I got home.
As far as injuries, Absolutely no way to predict those, but I know looking back, at least 2 of Wartburg's losses in the last three years, the Knights were significantly hampered by injuries. I know it happens to everyone, and I was particularily impressed by the way Central was able to continue their roll without Schuring for a few games.
Wartburg rarely, if ever uses a fullback anymore. A far cry from watching my highlight tapes from '02 and '01 where almost every snap is traditional I formation.
A lot of use of the TE though still right now, and why not, when you've got the best in the conference.

[Klompen]

Topic to discuss....

I have a co-worker who is convinced that a NAIA school (Nebraska Weselyen) could "roll" anybody in D3. My question is there a NAIA school that you personally would like to see play a preseason game with a D3 school?

Central played Nebraska Wesleyan years ago and I'm pretty sure we won the meetings with them.  We have also beaten them in volleyball and I think we met them in the basketball tourney as well.  I always thought there were DIII, but I could be wrong.  It happens.   

I just checked their web-site and they are both NAIA (football) and DIII (basketball)

Thanks, AN, I was sure that way back when Central had played them in a basketball playoff.  I wonder if it is common for schools to be both NAIA and DIII?

[doolittledog]

Topic to discuss....

I have a co-worker who is convinced that a NAIA school (Nebraska Weselyen) could "roll" anybody in D3. My question is there a NAIA school that you personally would like to see play a preseason game with a D3 school?

Central played Nebraska Wesleyan years ago and I'm pretty sure we won the meetings with them.  We have also beaten them in volleyball and I think we met them in the basketball tourney as well.  I always thought there were DIII, but I could be wrong.  It happens.   

I just checked their web-site and they are both NAIA (football) and DIII (basketball)

Thanks, AN, I was sure that way back when Central had played them in a basketball playoff.  I wonder if it is common for schools to be both NAIA and DIII?

I bet Pat has the answer.  I thought I read there were about a handfull of schools that have sports in both.  Menlo, in California is one of them I believe.  I really don't know what the advantage of doing so would be.  I'm also a bit surprised the NCAA or the NAIA would want schools doing this.

[Klompen]

Why don't you provide some actual information that might be helpful as to why you will be worldbeaters this year other than you have "heart". 

It is easy to look back and say this, but last year's team with heart had to be the Dutch.  Nagging injury after injury to key players, including most of the captains, and they still found a way to win.  That is the part that gives me hope for this year's team in spite of all the graduation losses.  We had lots of guys step into big shoes last year and they found a way to win when the chips were down.  Heart plays a key role on every team, not just the ones at the bottom looking for a way to explain why they are going to be better this year.  Heart can also keep a team at the top.  I hope we have a lot of heart again this year. 

[keith45]

The Des Moines Register ran a story on the Grand View football team.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080808/SPORTS0208/808080387/0/SPORTS

Did they run the story because of Grand View being local???  Or because they think the NAIA is better than D3 because they offer scholarships???

1 reader must think so.  In a reply to the article the reader said if Grand View can't beat Coe in their scrimmage they will be in for a long year!!! 

UD G/F on the basketball team, Dreylan Porter (athletic 6-5 wing, he had 17 points againts ISU in UD's ex. game last year) has transferred to GV and is slated to be the starting receiver for the team. He played football in HS in Texas, but only basketball for UD. Big blow for Spartan basketball, as he would have been a force (he missed some time due to a hand injury), but should add some height and athleticsm to GV's receivers.

[ShowMe]

Looks like Devine will be the next to hit the Karma Club.  Attaboy.

I'm not sure what technically qualifies as a spread offense, but I'd say that Dubuque and Cornell probably run the closest thing to it right now.  Simpson and Luther have worked with some spread principles mixed into their schemes in the past, but we'll see how that changes with the new coaching staffs taking over.  Wartburg and Central both run quite a bit of 3 or 4 receiver looks with usually a single back and the occassional empty backfield, but I'm not sure their ways actually constitute being in the spread.  More like a formational oddity in otherwise traditional offenses.

Cornell has ran the wing-t for the past two years...although I wouldn't be surprised to see them run some spread this year with bush. The year before Dillon got there they were running spread.

Actually, under Dillon Cornell runs a multi set offense that includes the wing-t and spread sets

[ShowMe]

ShowMe:
Regardless of my predictions, I appreciate your enthusiastic support of the Cornell Rams.  As far as I'm concerned you can dream out loud as much as you wish.

Thank you and remind me to leave you out of the crow cook out.

[TheOne89.1]

I love seeing the family all nessled into their family truckster on heading out on some great adventure.

"You think you hate it now, but wait till you drive it."

Predictions for 2008

1. Wartburg - Willis is back and I'm a homer
2. Central - Will always be pre-predicted 1 or 2 (in my book) until they finish 3rd or worse
3. UD - New field, older experienced team ready to make some noise
4. Luther - New coach, new tricks
5. Coe - 3rd last year, can't fall too far
6. Simpson - D2 QB transfer could spark some offense
7. Loras - Dropping quickly
8. Cornell - Wanted to put them up higher, could see them as high as 5...always seem to root for them
9. BV - Someone had to be last

This is just a quick prediction.  Nothing solid to base my decisions on.  Pretty much listed 1 thru 9 then went back and added captions.  Gotta start somewhere and will definitely change as the season goes on.

You mean the QB D2 from last year or a new one ?? The one last year played really well down the stretch 

If he would have been playing all year I think the Storm would have been up a spot or two.  He has impressive numbers from last year and has some experience with what looks to be solid upper classmen wide receivers including a medical redshirt coming back, the Storm may look like the team that was around a few years ago when 90% of the game they were throwing the ball.