Around the Nation board

Ralph Turner · September 17, 2008, 10:25:57 PM

In the summer 2009 offseason, do we have enough scores to come up with a D3football.com index (similar to what we have for bornpowerindex and lazindex) for the 2009 season? With the input of some good sports statisticians, you might have some confidence intervals that would give us an idea of when a real upset had occurred versus a better effort by slight underdog.

With permission, I have used KICKOFF in the ASC Pick'ems contest for the last 4 years with good success. I think that y'all could do it.

Ron Boerger · September 18, 2008, 10:10:43 AM

Have to pick a bone, Keith. You said:

Quote from: K-mac's evin twin Skippy ;-)The Choctaws are surrendering 45.5 points per game, but the ASC schedule provides a path for an 0-2 team to make the playoffs.

The possibilties? Least likely to most:
- Defeat both UMHB and improved HSU - on the road - and win the conference outright. 1%
- Win one, lose one, hope for the NCAA to give a 7-3 team (7-2 D3 play) a Pool C bid. 1-2%
- Defeat one, lose to one, hope for a three-way tie breaker and win it. 2%

Seems like a path frought with pitfalls to me. And I thought that even before seeing the MC SID's post saying QB Shaffer is out for the season, honest.

K-Mack · September 21, 2008, 01:04:09 AM

Quote from: Ron Boerger on September 18, 2008, 10:10:43 AM
Have to pick a bone, Keith. You said:

Quote from: K-mac's evin twin Skippy ;-)The Choctaws are surrendering 45.5 points per game, but the ASC schedule provides a path for an 0-2 team to make the playoffs.

The possibilties? Least likely to most:
- Defeat both UMHB and improved HSU - on the road - and win the conference outright. 1%
- Win one, lose one, hope for the NCAA to give a 7-3 team (7-2 D3 play) a Pool C bid. 1-2%
- Defeat one, lose to one, hope for a three-way tie breaker and win it. 2%

Seems like a path frought with pitfalls to me. And I thought that even before seeing the MC SID's post saying QB Shaffer is out for the season, honest.

Didn't mean to suggest it was likely, only that the AQ gives every team in a conference hope, even if it's off to a less-than-good start (wins award for being diplomatic)

K-Mack · September 21, 2008, 01:05:30 AM

So apparently the Hiram website took note of the school being featured in the first ATN, but the comments below were not so kind:

Ron Boerger · September 21, 2008, 11:36:40 PM

Quote from: K-Mack on September 21, 2008, 01:05:30 AM
So apparently the Hiram website took note of the school being featured in the first ATN, but the comments below were not so kind:

'Kate' probably posted at Hendrix saying how football was going to destroy that august institution ...

Pat Coleman · September 21, 2008, 11:47:52 PM

They've removed the comment that contained a word so bad that Carlin didn't even include it in his seven.

Ralph Turner · September 22, 2008, 08:52:38 AM

Thanks for the podcast!

Great way to start the week!

Ken Pickens · September 22, 2008, 08:19:09 PM

Guys, watch out for a third year program out LaGrange Georgia, LaGrange College!
This team is for real and after not winning a game in two years, they are ready to put their names in national contention this year or next year.

K-Mack · September 22, 2008, 10:04:25 PM

Quote from: Pat Coleman on September 21, 2008, 11:47:52 PM
They've removed the comment that contained a word so bad that Carlin didn't even include it in his seven.

I'm not sure if I should have brought attention to that, although I liked it when they brought attention to ATN bringing attention to them.

HScoach · September 23, 2008, 07:17:05 AM

Quote from: Ken Pickens on September 22, 2008, 08:19:09 PM
Guys, watch out for a third year program out LaGrange Georgia, LaGrange College!
This team is for real and after not winning a game in two years, they are ready to put their names in national contention this year or next year.

Right.

Ron Boerger · September 23, 2008, 10:18:08 AM

Quote from: hscoach on September 23, 2008, 07:17:05 AM
Quote from: Ken Pickens on September 22, 2008, 08:19:09 PM
Guys, watch out for a third year program out LaGrange Georgia, LaGrange College!
This team is for real and after not winning a game in two years, they are ready to put their names in national contention this year or next year.

Right.

Hey, beating a second-year program that didn't bring back most of its starters from last year IS impressive ... even if it was by all of three points.

Look out Mount Union!!!

redswarm81 · September 23, 2008, 03:15:02 PM

Quote from: Ken Pickens on September 22, 2008, 08:19:09 PM
Guys, watch out for a third year program out LaGrange Georgia, LaGrange College!
This team is for real and after not winning a game in two years, they are ready to put their names in national contention this year or next year.

I'm reminded of a bar I used to frequent, where there was always a sign posted saying "free beer tomorrow."

I don't remember much else about that bar.

matblake · September 25, 2008, 09:03:15 AM

Chartering a Little Brass Bus, I love it!

Pat Coleman · September 25, 2008, 11:52:19 AM

Agreed, I thought that was a great line.

AO · September 27, 2008, 10:18:28 AM

Biggest upset of the year? (Northwestern over River Falls) I agree that it's a big win for the program, but I'm not even sure we were underdogs going into the game. On paper we had better offensive talent. It probably was the biggest game on the schedule as the rest of the UMAC will probably not put up much more of a fight than they usually do. At 9-1 with the lone loss coming in a close game against Simpson in the rain, I think the playoff hopes are high, but I haven't looked at whatever the other pool b contenders are doing.