Around the Nation board

[Pat Coleman]

Kickoff ranked Northwestern No. 157 (by far the highest in the UMAC) and UW-River Falls No. 83 (second-to-last in the WIAC).

[AO]

I officially forgive Kickoff for unfairly ranking Northwestern and the UMAC as a whole, as I understand there are 250 teams to evaluate.  Another prime example of East Coast Bias. 

[Ralph Turner]

I officially forgive Kickoff for unfairly ranking Northwestern and the UMAC as a whole, as I understand there are 250 teams to evaluate.  Another prime example of East Coast Bias. 

Naw, I think that it is a case of first season...prove to me what you have?

CSS is new.
Martin Luther, Crown and MN-Morris came out of the UMAC.

Northwestern is the best of this breed.  Even with a win over the Tommies, I think that the Simpson loss knocks you out of a Pool B bid because of a weak strength of schedule.   

[AO]

what other pool b team scheduled a WIAC school?  The East Coast Bias i'm referring to was the wisconsin variety; it ought to pay off for us come playoff time.

[Ralph Turner]

what other pool b team scheduled a WIAC school?  The East Coast Bias i'm referring to was the wisconsin variety; it ought to pay off for us come playoff time.

When the Handbook is released, I encourage you to "devour" it.

The "WIAC result" is considered in the information that the committee uses.  There is no consideration, or room for consideration, of "East Coast bias", altho' I thought that the E8 benefited in the selection of at-large teams over the NWC in 2007. 


Edit:  More precisely, I having trouble believing that the third team in the E8 was better than the first team in the NWC.  I just don't believe that there is enough statistical linking with a sample size of 9-10 games in a season and extreme "regional isolation" of the NWC/West Coast to make that leap. 

[AO]

It stands to reason that my NWC would also get the short end of the stick.

[Pat Coleman]

Agreed. Programs that perform get the long end of the stick.

[K-Mack]

Biggest upset of the year? (Northwestern over River Falls) I agree that it's a big win for the program, but I'm not even sure we were underdogs going into the game.  On paper we had better offensive talent.  It probably was the biggest game on the schedule as the rest of the UMAC will probably not put up much more of a fight than they usually do.   At 9-1 with the lone loss coming in a close game against Simpson in the rain, I think the playoff hopes are high, but I haven't looked at whatever the other pool b contenders are doing.

Your entitled to your opinion of course, but I'd encourage you to look at the WIAC's non-conference results over time. Even bad WIAC teams often win their non-con games, and the UMAC and WIAC are (very fairly) at opposite ends of the spectrum. In mission, in level of talent/type of student-athletes attracted, in historical significance in the postseason, etc.

I thought it was very significant.

[K-Mack]

what other pool b team scheduled a WIAC school?  The East Coast Bias i'm referring to was the wisconsin variety; it ought to pay off for us come playoff time.

When the Handbook is released, I encourage you to "devour" it.

The "WIAC result" is considered in the information that the committee uses.  There is no consideration, or room for consideration, of "East Coast bias", altho' I thought that the E8 benefited in the selection of at-large teams over the NWC in 2007. 


Edit:  More precisely, I having trouble believing that the third team in the E8 was better than the first team in the NWC.  I just don't believe that there is enough statistical linking with a sample size of 9-10 games in a season and extreme "regional isolation" of the NWC/West Coast to make that leap. 

I thought we've dealt with the East Coast bias thing. Saying that in Division III is like saying Motor Trend is biased toward writing about cars.

As far the Empire 8, Ralph I agree the third team in most every league isn't better than the NWC's best, and no NWC teams was a certain stunner. Problem was the E8's third best team won the AQ, and that left teams that apparently stacked up better via the criteria than Whitworth.

Anyway, wasnt UWEC widely regarded as the team that bumped Whitworth? And was least deserving, until it won in the first round.

I remember interviewing (Dick ?, Defiance/committee chair) and he said the committee was rewarding teams from the better conferences that played tough schedules or something to that effect ... and it made sense in the cases of who got in but not who was out.

I think it was a fluke and luckily it will never happen again.

Otherwise though, I thought the committee largely "got it" last year and nailed it better than almost ever before.

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks for the informative response.

That situation sets up the geographic isolation disadvantage.

The number of teams that are available to play to improve the OWP and OOWP in the mid-Atlantic states is incredible.  Because of the number of teams in the area, that permits greater separation in the OWP/OOWP.  (A good example of this is in the OWP/OOWP values that we see in the Men's UAA basketball values.  Because those 8 teams are in 5 Evaluation Regions and in all 4 Administrative Regions, and because they are so close to 85% of the teams in D-III as a conference, they can legitimately build great schedules with respect to OWP/OOWP.)

The West Coast teams struggle to find opponents to fill a 9-game schedule.  That geographic isolation even brings the OWP/OOWP back to .500, because it is virtually a "closed system".

Yes, I hope that it never happens again, but I don't know how to get around that fact.

[AO]

The East Coast Bias comment was a joke.  As a minnesotan I consider Wisconsin to be on the East Coast as we relate our geography according to the great lakes.   

I completely agree with Ralph about the scheduling difficulties.  There's definitely room to consider subjectively weighing the schedule of a team's big games as punishing a team for beating poor conference or non-conference opponents year after year doesn't make a ton of sense.

[Ralph Turner]

The East Coast Bias comment was a joke.  As a Minnesotan I consider Wisconsin to be on the East Coast as we relate our geography according to the great lakes.   

I completely agree with Ralph about the scheduling difficulties.  There's definitely room to consider subjectively weighing the schedule of a team's big games as punishing a team for beating poor conference or non-conference opponents year after year doesn't make a ton of sense.

Fortunately or not, that subjectivity that we would like to interject into the process is hard to define and may not be sufficiently quantifiable to include in the selection criteria.

Most accurately, I firmly believed that the NWC champion, Whitworth, was among the best 10 at-large teams (3 Pool B + 7 Pool C) that were on the table before the national selection committee.   

[DutchFan2004]

what other pool b team scheduled a WIAC school?  The East Coast Bias i'm referring to was the wisconsin variety; it ought to pay off for us come playoff time.

When the Handbook is released, I encourage you to "devour" it.

The "WIAC result" is considered in the information that the committee uses.  There is no consideration, or room for consideration, of "East Coast bias", altho' I thought that the E8 benefited in the selection of at-large teams over the NWC in 2007. 


Edit:  More precisely, I having trouble believing that the third team in the E8 was better than the first team in the NWC.  I just don't believe that there is enough statistical linking with a sample size of 9-10 games in a season and extreme "regional isolation" of the NWC/West Coast to make that leap. 

I thought we've dealt with the East Coast bias thing. Saying that in Division III is like saying Motor Trend is biased toward writing about cars.

As far the Empire 8, Ralph I agree the third team in most every league isn't better than the NWC's best, and no NWC teams was a certain stunner. Problem was the E8's third best team won the AQ, and that left teams that apparently stacked up better via the criteria than Whitworth.

Anyway, wasnt UWEC widely regarded as the team that bumped Whitworth? And was least deserving, until it won in the first round.

I remember interviewing (Dick ?, Defiance/committee chair) and he said the committee was rewarding teams from the better conferences that played tough schedules or something to that effect ... and it made sense in the cases of who got in but not who was out.

I think it was a fluke and luckily it will never happen again.

Otherwise though, I thought the committee largely "got it" last year and nailed it better than almost ever before.

A couple of things do not make sense to me K-Mack.  The third best team won the AQ is a subjective statement is it not.  I am not familiar with how the E8's AQ was or is won.  If it comes down to a tie breaker or some such it was still settled on the field.  So the AQ was won by the best E8 team or that they tied the best. 


Now the statement that UWEC kept them out as I understand this can not really be a true statement since there were other Pool B teams that kept them out did they not.  Now if you are saying that Pool B was cut and dried and the NWC didn't deserve a Pool B bid then the E8's two pool C bids could have kept the NWC out. 

Since I have heard you and Pat state that the 32 best teams are supposed to get in.  Then all the Pool C bids kept the NWC out did they not?

Not trying to pick on you just learn what you are thinking and trying to clear this up in my mind. 

[Pat Coleman]

But remember that the conference schedule is only (in this case) six out of 10 games. So there is a significant track record in non-conference action to base that assessment on.

Hartwick had the worst standing among the three Empire 8 teams, at 7-3 overall, in terms of the playoff selection criteria.

Eau Claire was the lowest-seeded at-large in the West and is widely regarded as the team that got in ahead of Whitworth. Whitworth was ahead of Eau Claire in the final published regional rankings and both teams won their regular-season finale.

http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/2007/11/07/third-regional-rankings/

[DutchFan2004]

But remember that the conference schedule is only (in this case) six out of 10 games. So there is a significant track record in non-conference action to base that assessment on.

Hartwick had the worst standing among the three Empire 8 teams, at 7-3 overall, in terms of the playoff selection criteria.

Eau Claire was the lowest-seeded at-large in the West and is widely regarded as the team that got in ahead of Whitworth. Whitworth was ahead of Eau Claire in the final published regional rankings and both teams won their regular-season finale.

http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/2007/11/07/third-regional-rankings/

This does not address the fact that the NCAA states the 32 best teams are chosen, correct?  So they, with their choices said that the two non AQ E8 teams were better than the NWC champ.  If I have followed you guys correctly.