Around the Nation board

[Pat Coleman]

Sigh. Frank is done for the day, already off the deep end. No talking to him.

Nothing to see here, folks, just the ranting is left.

[Frank Rossi]

Sigh. Frank is done for the day, already off the deep end. No talking to him.

Nothing to see here, folks, just the ranting is left.

LMAO... It just makes me salivate for out-of-region incentives, Guru.  If we're going to pontificate on these things, then we need to compare teams beyond just UMU vs. (Insert East Team Here).  I actually did do some math to check out USee's point about the CCIW since I'm actually more open-minded than you give me credit for.  The divergence between the average OWP and average OOWP for teams in the CCIW is a -0.035.  For the E8, it's -0.025.  That, as you know, means that the OOC opponents' OWPs show inferior schedule strength in the CCIW's OOC since OOWP takes into account a conference team's OWP multiple times and OOC's OWP just once in each case.  With all the noise in the E8 (with just 5 conference games per team), I thought the divergence would be higher.  I was shocked it wasn't.

[HScoach]

All of the "cross-over" analysis of the CCIW is fine, but leave the OAC out of it.  They play a 9 game league schedule so it's awfully hard to get a bunch of cross-over OOC game when you only get one chance.   The OOC game for the OAC this season:

Capital played Wesley (ACFC)
John Carroll played Case Western (UAA)
Mount Union played UW-Oshkosh (WAIC)
Muskingum played Defiance (HCAC)
Ohio Northern played UW-River Falls (WAIC)
Baldwin Wallace played Wooster (NCAC)
Heidelberg played Alma (MIAA)
Marietta played Thiel (PAC)
Wilmington played Mt St Joe (HCAC)
Otterbein played Husson (ECFC) =  yuck

[hornet]

FWIW  I hope ncc@ st thomas get put in same region 1@2 is this agood possibility ? usee what do you think?

[usee]

Do me a favor and list me the playoff team-games you're discussing since I'm entrenched in prep work for this weekend.  I'll happilly concede that the CCIW is of that caliber if I can see some more hard proof on that point.  However, none of those teams have made it to the Stagg either.  In fact, even the Liberty League has had more Stagg appearances since 1989 than the CCIW.  I see a couple STRONG teams in there.  Not five perennial powers.  So help enlighten me here on the CCIW's supposed extreme strength.  Claiming five power teams is an interesting premise.

Frank,

Let's not lose sight of your original point and my rebuttal on this. Again, my point is that I don't believe the east's "problem" as you lay it out is unique. The north has the same situation depending on your perspective. I am not claiming the CCIW is better than east teams nor have I said anywhere that the CCIW has 5 perennial powers. All I said is that the CCIW/OAC top half could match up with your 11 east teams that you claim don't exist in any other region (keith already made the case for the west). I think that  assessment is false. Again, we aren't necessarily better but I think its fair to say its at least similar.

To answer your question, The CCIW and OAC playoff teams since 2000 are:

2000 Millikin, ONU, MT Union
2001 Augie, Mt Union
2002 Wheaton, JCU, Mt Union
2003 Wheaton, BW, Mt Union
2004 Wheaton, Carthage, Mt Union
2005 NCC, Augie, Capital, Mt Union
2006 Wheaton, NCC, Capital, Mt Union
2007 NCC, Capital, Mt Union
2008 Wheaton, NCC, OTT, Mt Union
2009 IWU, Mt Union

So 6 of the 8 CCIW teams and 5 of the 10 OAC have competed in the NCAA playoffs over that time period.  and The CCIW is 16-14 over that time period with 10 of their 14 losses to Mt Union/UWW and 3 other losses to OAC teams. The other loss was NCC v Franklin. The OAC ex-Mt Union is 9-7 during that time period with 5 of their 7 losses to Mt Union/UWW , 1 loss to Wheaton and 1 loss to Franlin. Mt Union is 34-4 over that time period.

There is clearly "cannibalism" within CCIW/OAC  teams during their season as well running into Mt/each other in the playoffs they have been able to succeed. NCC is poised to take their program to a UWW/Mt Union level from what I can see and Wheaton has won every playoff game against non Mt Union teams. Carthage, in their only playoff appearance in 2004, took Mt Union deep into the 4th quarter (tied 20-20 midway through 4th).

Again, my point is that I believe it is possible to compete and improve your teams under the current system that forces North/East teams to play Mt Union/UWW early and often. I don't believe East has any more obstacles than North teams and I think it is possible to get better in spite of these issues.  

[usee]

Do me a favor and list me the playoff team-games you're discussing since I'm entrenched in prep work for this weekend.  I'll happilly concede that the CCIW is of that caliber if I can see some more hard proof on that point.  However, none of those teams have made it to the Stagg either.  In fact, even the Liberty League has had more Stagg appearances since 1989 than the CCIW. 

One other point I'll make on this, I don't think listing Stagg appearances is relevant to the point I was making in rebuttal to your original point but I do find it interesting your arbitrary cut off date of 1989 is a couple years after Augustana's run of 5 Stagg appearance's in a row.

In fact, the only reason an east team has been to the Stagg since Mt Union began their run is in the years they weren't paired with Mt until the Stagg. Every year the East faced Mt (or any other OAC team) prior to the Stagg they have suffered the same feat as all other North teams. It's not like the North gets a picnic lunch when Mt Union is shipped East either. Except for 1 year (when Wheaton won the North as a pool C) we have have UWW replacing Mt Union in the North.

[Ralph Turner]

+1! hscoach.  Great point that you showed on the OAC OOC list.

When you are making schedules in advance, it is hard to know who will be strong that year.

Nevertheless, those are representative foes.

My thought about the non-conference schedule in D-3 is that the conference games are for the Pool A bid.

One uses the non-conference games to boost your teams chances for hosting games in the Playoffs.  If you have lost the Pool A, then your OOC games are your hope for a Pool C "do-over".

Had Del Valley beaten Wesley, we would be talking about DVC maybe being a #2 versus a #3/#4 seed, in turn pushing Wesley to the South and UMU westward, and possibly hosting a semi-final game.

[usee]

I would love to see that too.  The CCIW's best teams have these exciting OOC wins to their resume:

NCC - beat Olivet (0-9), Cornell of Iowa (0-9) and UW-EC (4-5)

Wheaton - beat Albion (5-4), UW-Platt (5-4), and Olivet

TGP,

Be careful not to change the point of the argument. We are talking about an historical perspective so taking part of this year's schedule to make an unrelated point is innacurate. I have actually made the point elsewhere that the current SOS criteria are misleading. As you rightly point out, the CCIW put up a 22-2 OOC record this year against some very weak competition. That has skewed their SOS to make it appear the conference is stronger than it may in fact be. Having said that, it doesn't change my point, which is the East doesn't have it any tougher than the North. And in spite of this years relatively weak OOC competition the CCIW has wins against the following playoff teams in OOC play over the last 5 years: Coe, ONU, Franklin, Bethel, Concordia Wisc, Aurora, Thomas More, Wabash, Trine, Mt St Joseph. The fact that CCIW teams played weak teams this year is not as relevant to the point as the fact they actually beat those teams.

The other point I'll make is that I agree with Frank in that this years CCIW OOC performance confirms the notion that the system does not reward teams for tough OOC scheduling. The CCIW has 7 of their 8 teams in the top 25 in SOS based on their 22-2 record in OOC play. Don't confuse weak scheduling with weak play. The CCIW's playoff performances and previous years OOC records indicate they are very competitive.

As I have said on the East Region board, all of this doesn't elevate the CCIW (or any other North teams)over the East but highlights the point that Frank's assessment is not limited to East region teams.

[usee]

FWIW  I hope ncc@ st thomas get put in same region 1@2 is this agood possibility ? usee what do you think?

I doubt it's a "good possibility" but I think its a fairer alternative to Pat's bracket. If you can't decide who the #1 seed is between NCC/St Thomas, put them in the same bracket and let them fight it out. Using Pat's bracket and exchanging Wheaton and NCC would be interesting (including some ajusting for their different seeding). I would love to see NCC/St Thomas in bracket together in the West Region. UWW can come North again and that would even things out for UWW and Mt Union vis a vis strength of bracket.

[Pat Coleman]

It's definitely do-able -- I ran through the specific matchup changes on the CCIW board last night.

That's the best bracket possibility in my mind at this moment; however, I'll wait now until the HCAC result, since that also has implications.

[BoBo]

But according to the indexes like Bornpowerindex and Lazindex, if the East had a Top5-6 team, truly worthy of hosting the Region and a true #1 seed, then we would see closer games when they played the UMU's of the world.

A Top 5-6 team would dominate the region!

Ralph - The East's results vs. UMU are as close as, if not better than, the average North results vs. UMU.  Someone pulled out those numbers in the ERPD PP earlier this month.

This speaks to his statement: "A Top 5-6 team would dominate the region!"

OK, let's place DelVal at the top of the Region then.  Let's test this theory.  Oh, wait, what?  The Committee won't because the #8 team took the #3 team to the wire at the #3 team's home?  Oh, damn, I hate when that happens.  BAAAAAAD Aggies for scheduling a power team before the playoffs.  You became un-dominant with such a move!

FWIW - Del Valley loses today to Widener, 5th in the MAC. 

[DanPadavona]

...Which I believe speaks to Frank's point on Eastern depth.  Del Valley, which is arguably almost as strong as undefeated #1 Southern Region Wesley, can't run the table in its own conference and loses to the #5 seed team...which has a winning record in a deep MAC.

I think we all understand that trying to argue our points by utilizing traditional SoS metrics is rather faulty. OWP and OOWP are next to meaningless because they must all be taken in context.  If Husson schedules an undefeated NEFC team, I'm not impressed.  But if they schedule a 1-2 loss OAC team, I take notice.  Yet the theoretical NEFC example would point to a stronger SoS if utilizing OWP.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe the size of the D3 football membership is nearly twice that of the BCS.  There is no way we can ever have a statistically meaningful sample of cross-over games with a 10 game schedule.  And as Frank rightly points out, the NCAA gives disincentive to testing yourself OOC because it expects you to be 9-1 or 10-0 to get in.  

There are no answers to the question of "How does the East stack up to the North/South."  We don't know.  Unless we want to compare 20 and 30 point losses to Mount Union in the playoffs, there is little or nothing to go on.  Nor do we know if a top CCIW team would finish 1st or 4th in the NJAC.  We can look at low bandwidth video streams of archived games and draw some weak conclusions but that's about it.

[HScoach]

^  There are 236 D3 schools playing football.

[Frank Rossi]

...Which I believe speaks to Frank's point on Eastern depth.  Del Valley, which is arguably almost as strong as undefeated #1 Southern Region Wesley, can't run the table in its own conference and loses to the #5 seed team...which has a winning record in a deep MAC.

I think we all understand that trying to argue our points by utilizing traditional SoS metrics is rather faulty. OWP and OOWP are next to meaningless because they must all be taken in context.  If Husson schedules an undefeated NEFC team, I'm not impressed.  But if they schedule a 1-2 loss OAC team, I take notice.  Yet the theoretical NEFC example would point to a stronger SoS if utilizing OWP.

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe the size of the D3 football membership is nearly twice that of the BCS.  There is no way we can ever have a statistically meaningful sample of cross-over games with a 10 game schedule.  And as Frank rightly points out, the NCAA gives disincentive to testing yourself OOC because it expects you to be 9-1 or 10-0 to get in.  

There are no answers to the question of "How does the East stack up to the North/South."  We don't know.  Unless we want to compare 20 and 30 point losses to Mount Union in the playoffs, there is little or nothing to go on.  Nor do we know if a top CCIW team would finish 1st or 4th in the NJAC.  We can look at low bandwidth video streams of archived games and draw some weak conclusions but that's about it.

Well said, Dan.  +k

[DanPadavona]

^  There are 236 D3 schools playing football.

Thanks coach.  The national media frets that there aren't enough cross-overs in a 13 game regular season schedule to determine if Boise State is as good as Auburn.  D3 has 2x the membership and plays only 10 games with minimal travel expenses, and we still compare Montclair State to Pacific Lutheran as though we have some idea what we are talking about.