Around the Nation board

[smedindy]

I just remove the NESCAC from Massey in my mind. The methodology is pretty sound otherwise.

[roocru]

A little more info on some of the ranking systems out there!

I keep a spreadsheet to help me with my picks in the ASC Pickems and for my ballots in the South Region Top Ten Fan Poll.  I use four computer programs - LAZ, Born, Atomic and a new one I found called Tale of the Tape at www.compughterratings.com.  Each week I give each of the spreads of the games in the ASC Pickems a score of 1 to 4 (1 being closest) depending on their closeness to the final actual spread of the contests.  At this point the scores are:

1)   Tale of the Tape    121
2)   Atomic     121
3)   LAZ   147
4)   Born   166

As far as picking wins from the 56 games so far, they rank as follows:

1)   Tale of the Tape  45  80.4%
2)   Atomic  44  78.6%
3)   Born   43   76.8%
4)   LAZ   40    71.4%

[HScoach]

"Before I write off the OAC"  -- sorry, I wrote them off a long long long time ago.

Coach you put two conferences in a brown paper bag and say Conference A has produced one conference champion the last 10 seasons, and within that conference play said champion has held its in-conference foes to 7 points or less 70% of the time.  Or Conference B has produced 7 different champions, with in-conference play being decided by less than 10 pts per.  -- which is the better conference?  Anyone not named Pat or K-Mack will likely tell you that Conference B is a better one -- competition being the key.

The best program does not dictate the best conference.  I know that stings many in the rust belt that wear their beating with pride with the idea being that if it weren't for MUC they really would have a shot -- and in the the event as you're reading it you think it may sound foolish . . . is because it is foolish.

OAC is home to the best program, maybe of all time in Mount Union.  It is not home to the best conference.

Interesting.  Middlerelief hasn't been around lately spouting off about how weak the OAC is.  Wonder what changed?

[ITH radio]

Interesting ATN this week.  Agree with Commissioner King's comments that the LL race is far from over.

With only two LL games this weekend we're expanding the "HuddLLe" to include a two (and maybe one "surprise") special / national guests including:

Lenny Reich, Asst to the AD / SID at Mount Union
http://athletics.mountunion.edu/information/directory/bios/Reich_Leonard

Dr. Tony Strickland, CEO of the Sports Concussion Institute and Associate Clinical Professor of Neurology, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA.  Dr. Strickland consults with the NFL, NCAA, etc and is a renown expert in the field.
http://www.concussiontreatment.com/

Tune in Sunday night at 7:30 PM to www.inthehuddlle.com

[middlerelief]

"Before I write off the OAC"  -- sorry, I wrote them off a long long long time ago.

Coach you put two conferences in a brown paper bag and say Conference A has produced one conference champion the last 10 seasons, and within that conference play said champion has held its in-conference foes to 7 points or less 70% of the time.  Or Conference B has produced 7 different champions, with in-conference play being decided by less than 10 pts per.  -- which is the better conference?  Anyone not named Pat or K-Mack will likely tell you that Conference B is a better one -- competition being the key.

The best program does not dictate the best conference.  I know that stings many in the rust belt that wear their beating with pride with the idea being that if it weren't for MUC they really would have a shot -- and in the the event as you're reading it you think it may sound foolish . . . is because it is foolish.

OAC is home to the best program, maybe of all time in Mount Union.  It is not home to the best conference.

Interesting.  Middlerelief hasn't been around lately spouting off about how weak the OAC is.  Wonder what changed?

Have to work/travel during the week . . or is it weak.

I'm not saying the OAC is "weak" -- I'm saying they are not the best conference.    Again, can't prove one way or the other, I'm applying the rationale that they are not competitive within the conference.  Pat chimed in with take a look at the Inter conference record, which would strike me as odd since their top pick (WIAC) went 0-For Minnesota and a loss to sub 500 Buff State.

Again, I am not doubting for a moment who the top programs are, I just don't think that lays claim to the top conference.  I think MIAC, Northwest are probably right though in terms of being in the top. 

This was a good topic, I guess we can pick up again during bracket time as I won't hold my breath for a team from Ohio to put more than 7 against MUC. 

Good luck this weekend.

[Pat Coleman]

I generally don't waste my time responding to people who cherrypick their stats as much as you just did, but for the record:

Two teams that are a combined 1-9 lost to fourth-ranked St. Thomas. There's only one other MIAC/WIAC game. Not a lot of data for you to point to.

[middlerelief]

HSCoach you mentioned the MUC schedule being back end loaded -- 6 weeks in, MUC appears to be fully loaded!  Haven't seen any of the games just stats and scores, it is amazing.

The next 3 weeks appear to be the challengers (basing that on record only, haven't watched any OAC games this year) -- What can we expect from Otterbein, BW and Heidelberg, competitive with a shot to win or more of the same?

[Mr. Ypsi]

HSCoach you mentioned the MUC schedule being back end loaded -- 6 weeks in, MUC appears to be fully loaded!  Haven't seen any of the games just stats and scores, it is amazing.

The next 3 weeks appear to be the challengers (basing that on record only, haven't watched any OAC games this year) -- What can we expect from Otterbein, BW and Heidelberg, competitive with a shot to win or more of the same?

I certainly don't have HS Coach's expertise on UMU or the OAC, but I would say Ott and Bald Wally have zero chance of winning (and only slim chances of breaking Mount's shutout streak ), but the Heidi game could get interesting.  What an amazing turnaround for Heidi once they hired a Mount grad as their HC!

[bleedpurple]

A great day for the Top 10 today (except for Bethel not being competitive with St. Thomas.  Cal Lu hasn't kicked off, yet).  Not as great for 11-21. As always, it will be interesting to see how Top 25 shakes out this week.

[HScoach]

HSCoach you mentioned the MUC schedule being back end loaded -- 6 weeks in, MUC appears to be fully loaded!  Haven't seen any of the games just stats and scores, it is amazing.

The next 3 weeks appear to be the challengers (basing that on record only, haven't watched any OAC games this year) -- What can we expect from Otterbein, BW and Heidelberg, competitive with a shot to win or more of the same?

Otterbein is an average team with a really good WR, but little else.    Very surprising that they started the season 5-0 as most expected them to be a 6-4 team but they've played better to start the season.    Otter typically melts against Mount, so I don't know what to expect from them this weekend with the new coaching staff.  Maybe their play so far is a glimpse that they've turned the corner?
Prediction:  Mount 41 / Otter 10

H'Berg has a great, explosive offense with an unknown defense that should post the biggest threat to Mount.  H'Berg will move the ball and will score on Mount, the question is whether they can play enough defense to hang with Mount for 4 quarters.  H'Berg does have the OAC's best running game so it could be a really good challenge for a Mount defense that hasn't played a team yet that has tried to run it, nor has the ability to do so.    Berg had the OAC's best offense last year and looks to be building on that this season.  Their defense is improving, but not quite there yet.  Next year could be their year as they're full of juniors and Mount is almost all seniors.
Prediction:   Mount 44 / Berg 27

Baldwin Wallace is the one team historically that has played Mount the toughest at the line of scrimmage in the OAC, but doesn't have the skill people to beat Mount.  They will definitely play hard and make Mount work for it, but it would be a huge surprise if a close game for 3 quarters doesn't end up being a somewhat comfortable 3 TD victory.   
Prediction:   Mount 31 / BW 14

JCU has a D1 QB transfer (Mark Myers) from Pitt that has been lighting it up this season and should present a good test for the Mount defense.  JCU could/should be 6-0 right now except for a complete melt down at BW in week 2 and close loss in a game when Myers was injured.   Hard to predict what JCU will do between now and Week 10, but if Myers stays healthy they're going to score some points and wins some games.  Their defense is average at best so Mount should easily score in the 40's, question is whether JCU can score enough to make it a game for more than a half. 
Prediction:   Mount 48 / JCU 20

[K-Mack]

Yes - this on the surface has that feeling of wide open

And would like to regress back to the "toughest conference" discussion that was held last week -- the only team to score on MUC this season was a NON-OAC team.  The OAC may be host to one of the toughest programs of all time, but it is not the toughest conference.

Back to this week -- Bethel fan, congrats on the exciting win - and regrets to Concordia which will be really tough to get over -- I really respect that BU went for the win and not the time -- I really hope you guys (along with every remaining team in the MIAC) can beat STU this year.  Good luck.

The OAC is definitely not having its best year, because it's so have/have-not, but UMU hasn't played Heidelberg, Baldwin-Wallace, Otterbein or John Carroll, which are the other four above-.500 teams. Three of the four games are on the road, although road trips don't tend to be much of a factor in the OAC. B-W seems like it's a tough place to play, but that's it, based on where I've been/watched on Sports Time Ohio.

> Sep. 1      at Franklin (4-2)    W, 45-7
Sep. 15        Muskingum (1-5)     W, 57-0
Sep. 22        at Marietta (0-6)    W, 52-0
Sep. 29   Ohio Northern (2-4)    W, 54-0
Oct. 6    at Wilmington (0-6)   W, 66-0
Oct. 13     Capital (1-5)    W, 62-0
Oct. 20      at Otterbein (5-1)
Oct. 27     Heidelberg (6-0)
Nov. 3     at Baldwin-Wallace (5-1)
Nov. 10     at John Carroll (4-2)

So it's hard to get a read on whether this is Mount Union being typically Mount Union, or is this a super dominant team up with the best Purple Raiders teams ever. If I had to guess, right now, I'd say no. The 97, 2001/02 and the 07/08 Mount Union teams were much more experience at key offensive positions, and still strong on D.

Anyway, point is, Mount Union demolishes teams from every conference, good ones and bad ones, so to use that as your only barometer for the quality of the OAC is fool's gold.

I see you all have been addressing this. Nevermind then, most of the salient points seem to have been made already.

[K-Mack]

Anyone not named Pat or K-Mack will likely tell you ...

What reason would we have to lie to you? All we've been doing is watching every game we can get our eyes on, talking to coaches and players and folks like HSCoach who watch games in each conference each week and analyzing stats since 1999.

You don't have to believe us, and we're certainly open to the facts moving the needle on accepted D-III wisdoms, but I have never met anybody that puts more time into trying to understand D-III and disseminate that info than Pat.

this on the surface has that feeling of wide open

Well, to a degree, every season is wide open below the top 2, or top five. But this year does seem like we'll have a pretty competitive final eight. But it's early yet, six weeks in, ends of stories still to be written.

[K-Mack]

End of argument. HScoach wins.

"Before I write off the OAC"  -- sorry, I wrote them off a long long long time ago.

Coach you put two conferences in a brown paper bag and say Conference A has produced one conference champion the last 10 seasons, and within that conference play said champion has held its in-conference foes to 7 points or less 70% of the time.  Or Conference B has produced 7 different champions, with in-conference play being decided by less than 10 pts per.  -- which is the better conference?  Anyone not named Pat or K-Mack will likely tell you that Conference B is a better one -- competition being the key.

The best program does not dictate the best conference.  I know that stings many in the rust belt that wear their beating with pride with the idea being that if it weren't for MUC they really would have a shot -- and in the the event as you're reading it you think it may sound foolish . . . is because it is foolish.

OAC is home to the best program, maybe of all time in Mount Union.  It is not home to the best conference.

Writing off the OAC simply because Mount has consistently won the conference is an overly simplistic and incorrect view.

Who wins the conference championship is not the only sign of conference strength.  Balance, yes.  But not strength.  You dismiss the OAC simply because they can't beat Mount?  Well then you can dismiss the rest of D3 outside of the WIAC for the last few years.     Since 1996, there have been exactly five (5) teams that have beaten Mount Union, and only one of them has done it multiple times:
Whitewater (WAIC) – 4 times
Ohio Northern (OAC) - once
Mary Hardin Baylor (ASC) - once
St John's (MIAC) - once
Rowan (NJAC) - once

So outside of the WIAC, the OAC has done exactly what the rest of the nation has done against Mount.  Beaten them every once in a while.   

Here's a brief synopsis of the last 20 years of Mount results in terms of toughest/closest games that season and what conference that team was from.   If you take the time to read it, you'll see that the OAC has often provided the toughest test for Mount.  Not always, but the conference has often put up as tough a fight as the best playoff teams from around the nation.

2011 – National Runner-up (14-1)
Ohio Northern  (OAC)  :  Mount win 14-6
Baldwin Wallace  (OAC)  :  Mount win 25-20
Wesley (ind):  Mount win 28-21
Whitewater (WIAC):  Mount loss 13-10
     
2010 – National Runner-up (14-1)
Marietta  (OAC)  :  Mount win 28-14
Whitewater (WIAC):  Mount loss 31-21
Next closest regular season game was Otterbein (OAC) by 18 pts, next closest playoff game was 20 pts

2009 – National Runner-up (14-1)
Capital  (OAC)  :  Mount win 28-21
Whitewater (WIAC):  Mount loss 38-28
no other team, including playoffs, was closer than 17 pts.

2008 – National Champion (15-0)
Whitewater (WIAC):  Mount win 31-26
No other team, playoffs included, closer than 21 pts

2007 – National Runner-up (14-1)
Whitewater (WIAC):  Mount loss 31-21
No other team, playoffs included, closer than 24 pts

2006 – National Champion (15-0)
Baldwin Wallace  (OAC)  :  Mount win 14-0
Capital  (OAC) in Round 3  :  Mount win 17-14
St. John Fisher (E-8):  Mount win 26-14
    NOTE:  beat Whitewater (WIAC) by 19 in Stagg

2005 – National Champion (14-1)
Ohio Northern  (OAC):  Mount loss 21-14 
Baldwin Wallace  (OAC)  :  Mount win 17-3
Capital  (OAC) in Round 3  :  Mount win 34-31
Whitewater (WIAC):  Mount win 31-26

2004 – Semi-Finalist (12-1)
Ohio Northern  (OAC)  :  Mount win 41-27
Mary Hardin Baylor (ASC):  Mount loss 38-35 to runner-up

2003 – National Runner-up (13-1)
St. John's (MIAC):  Mount loss 24-6
Only decent games were John Carroll  (OAC)   34-16 and Baldwin Wallace  (OAC) 24-0.   No other team, including playoffs, was closer.

2002 – National Champion (14-0)
Baldwin Wallace  (OAC)  :  Mount win 28-21
John Carroll  (OAC)  :  Mount win 35-16
Capital  (OAC)  :  Mount win 38-22
Ohio Northern  (OAC)  :  Mount win 34-24
No other team, including playoffs, closer than 21 pts.  Beat John Carroll  (OAC) in semi-finals.

2001 – National Champions (14-0)
Baldwin Wallace  (OAC)  :  Mount win 17-3
Bridgewater (ODAC):  Mount win 30-27
No other team, including playoffs, closer than 21 pts

2000 – National Champions (14-0)
John Carroll  (OAC)  :  Mount win 41-31
Wittenberg (NCAC):  Mount win 32-15
St. John's (MIAC):  Mount win 10-7
No other team, including playoffs, closer than 24 pts.  Beat Ohio Northern   (OAC)    in Round 1

1999 -  Semi-Finalist (12-1)
John Carroll  (OAC)  :  Mount win 57-51 in  3 OT's 
Augustana (CCIW):  Mount win 42-33
Rowan (NJAC):  Mount loss 24-17 in OT to runner-up
Played Ohio Northern   (OAC)    in 2nd round of playoffs.

1998 – National Champion (14-0)
John Carroll  (OAC)  :  Mount win 21-14
Albion (MIAA):  Mount win 21-19
Wittenberg (NCAC):  Mount win 21-19
Trinity Tx (ASC):  Mount win 34-29
    NOTE:  beat Rowan (NJAC) by 20 in Stagg

1997 – National Champions (14-0)
Allegheny (NCAC):  Mount win 34-30
Closest regular season game 38-14 over Ohio Northern  (OAC)  .  Other than Allegheny, no playoff game within 45 pts.  Played John Carroll   (OAC)    in 2nd round of playoffs.

1996 – National Champion (14-0)
Allegheny (NCAC):  Mount win 31-26
No other team, including playoffs, closer than 18 pts.
     NOTE:  beat Rowan by 32 in Stagg

1995 – Semi-Finalist (12-1)
Marietta  (OAC)  :  Mount win 41-37
Wisc La Crosse (WIAC):  Mount loss 20-17 to eventual champs
No other team, including playoffs, closer than 21 pts

1994 – Regional Finalist (10-2)
Ohio Northern  (OAC)  :  Mount win 41-35
Baldwin Wallace  (OAC):  Mount loss 23-10 
Allegheny (NCAC):  Mount win 38-19
Albion (MIAA):  Mount loss 34-33 to eventual champs

1993 – National Champs (14-0)
Heidelberg  (OAC)  :  Mount win 24-7
Albion (MIAA):  Mount win 30-16
Rowan (NJAC):  Mount win 34-24

1992 – Semi-Finalist (12-1)
Baldwin Wallace  (OAC)  :  Mount win 23-14
John Carroll  (OAC)  :  Mount win 24-14
Wisc La Crosse (WIAC):  Mount loss 29-24 to eventual champs
No other team, including playoffs, closer than 17 pts.

[HScoach]

I won?   Crap, I left my acceptance speech in my other suit.

[K-Mack]

Hey K-Mack, enjoyed the latest column as always, a bit perplexed on the comment about a D3 sort being difficult on Massey.  Try this, which is fairly easy to get to from the main CF page if you click the "NCAA III" option on the right pulldown menu:

http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&yr=2012&sub=11620

The NESCAC teams get way too much love here, as you'll see ... their top ten is

Trinity CT
Middlebury
M Hardin-Baylor
Wesley DE
Amherst
Bates   
Linfield
Johns Hopkins
Wesleyan CT
Mt Union

Massey has always been high on NESCAC. Only logic I can think of is that they do really well in every other D-III sports, so Massey assumes they would in football too. Our poll is traditionally ignorant toward or dismissive to NESCAC, but it makes sense because they start late and never have any big non-conference results to catch our attention.

Ron, thanks for the link. I tried 20 different sorts. I have no idea why I couldn't find it. But I really miss the Massey's Least-Likely Upsets, which was always at the end of the site under the D-III roundup. Can't find that anymore either.

Really should put some more time into checking out the computer ratings, although they looooved them some Bethel so they took a beating (as did Bethel) this Saturday.