Around the Nation board

[hazzben]

First of all, thanks Pat and Keith for compiling your Mock Regional Rankings. It's great to add your broader expertise to our more team, conference and regional perspectives. With that in mind, here's a few observations of the West Mock, 'my' region:

West

1. Linfield, 5-0, .722 (1st), defeated Cal Lutheran, Pacific Lutheran.
2. UW-Oshkosh, 6-0, .589 (31st), defeated UW-Whitewater.
3. St. Thomas, 7-0, .528 (78th), defeated Bethel.
4. Coe, 7-0, .498 (109th), no results vs. RRO.
5. Bethel, 6-1, .658 (5th), lost to St. Thomas, defeated Concordia-Moorhead.
6. Concordia-Moorhead, 5-1 .601 (23rd), lost to Bethel.
7. Cal Lutheran, 5-1, .517 (90th), lost to Linfield, defeated Pacific Lutheran.
8. Pacific Lutheran, 4-2, .700 (2nd), lost to Linfield, lost to Cal Lutheran, defeated Willamette.
9. Willamette, 5-1, .594 (27th), lost to Pacific Lutheran.
10. UW-Whitewater, 5-1*, .500 (104th), lost to UW-Oshkosh.

* - additional out-of-region loss

The bubble: Whitworth, Lake Forest, UW-Platteville.

Extended bubble: Augsburg, Northwestern, Illinois College, St. Olaf, Simpson, Wartburg and St. Norbert.

SOS shakeup:

The 4 unbeatens all have their own arguments to be made for being at the top, that's the fun of being unbeaten! But Coe is the outlier given SOS numbers that will only widen with the teams they close with. Meanwhile Oshkosh's SOS numbers will also dip with UWSP, UWS and UWL remaining. Linfield's numbers will drop a bit with Puget Sound and Pacific's ineptitude diminishing the quality of Willamette. UST, on the other hand, is about to see its number take a good jump with Concordia, Augsburg and St. Olaf remaining and picking up a game against a RRO. Of course the SOS jump also means UST has the toughest road to finish unbeaten out of the 4.

2 Loss Grudge Match:

Assuming teams hold serve, Concordia and Willamette will both pick up a second loss (although with UST majorly banged up, 4-6 starters out for the season over the last two weeks, that's no longer a lock). So you've potentially got PLU, Willamette, and Concordia with 2 in region losses and very strong SOS numbers against UWW with 1 in region loss and weak/weakening SOS numbers. The wildcard is what the committee does with a bad home loss to out of region Buff State. In UWW's favor is that either PLU or Whitworth will knock the other out with their H2H before the committee makes its first official jab. Also, you never know how the committee will regard the 2nd 'loss' by Concordia. They won't pretend its a win, but if they're stuck on how to position several 2 loss teams, I could see these being a factor.

Potential IIAC Chaos:

Wartburg at Coe could make everything crazy. Coe is the favorite, but a Knight win means a 3 way tie for the IIAC lead between 2 regional loss Simpson, 1 regional loss Coe and 2 regional loss Wartburg. If this happens, I'd surmise Wartburg makes it in ahead of UWW, with 1 loss (Bethel) and 1 win (Coe) vs. RRO. While Simpson, probably not regionally ranked, would have the inside track on the IIAC Pool A bid, if they follow the Rose Bowl Rule. That would make things very interesting for the first Regional Ranking in the West.

[Pat Coleman]

I will be at Wartburg-Coe on Saturday and hope to make the trip to Moorhead the following week, so I'm glad to see someone else thinks it may be worthwhile.

[umhb2001]

That description came right off of UMHB's website, but if you watch them play I'll take your word for it. WE keep mentioning that they have passed better this year than most in recent memory, so we are aware of that. No intent to mislead there, was just answering the guy's question.

No prob. If you had seen the game this week, and that was the only game you had seen, then you would think that I was totally misleading you. We ran more option this week than I had ever seen this season. But, I definitely don't think they are a base multiple option team.

I didn't think you were being sneaky.

[umhb2001]

That description came right off of UMHB's website, but if you watch them play I'll take your word for it. WE keep mentioning that they have passed better this year than most in recent memory, so we are aware of that. No intent to mislead there, was just answering the guy's question.

Watched a bunch of that game today. UMHB definitely runs option mixed in with all the other stuff still. In case that wasn't clear.

Yes, if this was the Hardin Simmons game, then you are right. They DID run a lot of option this week. It was confusing to me as to why they did that, especially since Wilson seems to be not quite right coming off of his injury. When they pound the middle multiple times and then quick hit the outside, that works well.

The game plan against Trinity was great. They pounded the middle, used bubble screens to keep the DB's and safeties honest, then they bounced outside with the run and ran play action across the middle. I see them using this a lot more down the stretch.

[Ralph Turner]

Like the mock regional rankings.

[HScoach]

That description came right off of UMHB's website, but if you watch them play I'll take your word for it. WE keep mentioning that they have passed better this year than most in recent memory, so we are aware of that. No intent to mislead there, was just answering the guy's question.

Watched a bunch of that game today. UMHB definitely runs option mixed in with all the other stuff still. In case that wasn't clear.

Yes, if this was the Hardin Simmons game, then you are right. They DID run a lot of option this week. It was confusing to me as to why they did that, especially since Wilson seems to be not quite right coming off of his injury. When they pound the middle multiple times and then quick hit the outside, that works well.

The game plan against Trinity was great. They pounded the middle, used bubble screens to keep the DB's and safeties honest, then they bounced outside with the run and ran play action across the middle. I see them using this a lot more down the stretch.

Sometimes the game plan is more about what your opponent doesn't defend well instead of what is your best scheme.   Maybe that was the case against H-S?

[umhb2001]

That description came right off of UMHB's website, but if you watch them play I'll take your word for it. WE keep mentioning that they have passed better this year than most in recent memory, so we are aware of that. No intent to mislead there, was just answering the guy's question.

Watched a bunch of that game today. UMHB definitely runs option mixed in with all the other stuff still. In case that wasn't clear.

Yes, if this was the Hardin Simmons game, then you are right. They DID run a lot of option this week. It was confusing to me as to why they did that, especially since Wilson seems to be not quite right coming off of his injury. When they pound the middle multiple times and then quick hit the outside, that works well.

The game plan against Trinity was great. They pounded the middle, used bubble screens to keep the DB's and safeties honest, then they bounced outside with the run and ran play action across the middle. I see them using this a lot more down the stretch.

Sometimes the game plan is more about what your opponent doesn't defend well instead of what is your best scheme.   Maybe that was the case against H-S?

Could be. And one note of inteterest to me was that the play to go back ahead looked eerily similar to the play we tried to run against Wesley at the end of last year. This time, it worked.

[K-Mack]

Appreciate the insight, umhb2001 and hazzben.

And you too Ralph and HS.

[dahlby]

Here's a good candidate for POTW:
248 yards rushing on 11 carries
75 yard rushing touchdown
88 yard rushing touchdown
9-11-0-152 passing
40 yard passing touchdown

Kean Stancil, QB, Chapman University vs. La Verne on 10/27/12

I hope someone has the game film and can post the 2 touchdown runs!

[HScoach]

K-Mack:   Would be curious to see your thoughts on Heidelberg after watching their showing against Mount yesterday?   From what I saw, that's definitely a playoff quality team (assuming Cartel Brooks is healthy).  They're as talented as a typical team we'd see in the 2nd Round.   

And they're not a one season flash in the pan either as they're a very young team.  Especially on Offense.
O-line:  4 sophomores & 1 junior
QB:  sophomore
TB:  both sophomores
WR & TE:  3 seniors

D-Line:  1 senior, 1 junior and 1 sophomore
LB:  3 seniors & 1 junior
DB:  2 seniors & 2 juniors

And all 22 of their back-ups are underclassmen. 

It would be huge step forward for the H'Berg program if they could get to 9-1 and taste the playoffs in '12.   Would set them up nicely for '13 and '14.

[middlerelief]

I was wondering something along the lines with Coach in regards to Heidelberg.

If Heidelberg can win out and finish with 1 loss, I think it'd be great if they get an invite to the NCAAs - I'd be curious to see how they would fair against other high caliber teams not just the Earth-Beating MUC. 

HSCoach -- good call, you mentioned there would teams toward the end of the season schedule for MUC that would score/compete, and H'Berg put some numbers up and had the lead -- any feeling on the final two games?

[HScoach]

^  I expect the next 2 games to be solid contests that end up with similar score differentials as H'Berg game.  The last 3 weeks of regular season should prepare Mount nicely for the playoffs.

[umhb2001]

Appreciate the insight, umhb2001 and hazzben.

And you too Ralph and HS.

No prob. Listening to the podcast as I write this. Good thoughts on the #1 seeds. The one thing I look forward to is seeing new teams. Redlands, NC Weslyan, and others have been good to see. I wish we had Central here, but what can I say. I hope things hold serve, keep guys healthy, then get that first game here in Belton. Many steps remain and lots of improvement to take on. I think we can do it.

[ITH radio]

Great article and one that started a lot of talk in Geneva, NY last weekend.  Coach Cragg really wants a home playoff game(s).

Still, I can't see a 10-0 Hobart as a #1.  Most likely / best case would be a #2 based on having a clear top 4 in UMU, MHB, LC and StT.

[Pat Coleman]

What would be awesome would be if Hobart would put in for a second-round home playoff game. I remember when they declined to put in to host and had to go to Widener. (Although that made it easier for us to cover it!)